It seems that more and more people are coming round to acknowledging that a NATO occupation of 80% of Ukraine is locked in at this point. That includes Igor Strelkov.
Overall, I assess the situation as “very unimportant”. Our offensive actions in the current format cannot bring victory over the enemy, but the losses they cause are close to irreparable. In addition, there is a general “demobilization of public sentiment” – this “war is not a war” has become very boring, the next “successes” in taking the next “woods, small and large viper holes” and city blocks, the battles for which have been going on for half a year (or more), no longer inspire anyone and do not give hope for a successful outcome. Public expectations “from Trump” are apparently high, and when they are not met – the disappointment will be great. And I, alas, do not predict any “quick peace”, probably NATO troops will enter Ukraine this year and the Turks will openly go over to the side of the enemy.
We (or rather the Kremlin) will be "bent over" to a truce on conditions close to capitulation (a "vague status" for Crimea is the maximum that Trump can offer Moscow under the "Kellogg plan", and for anything more, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have to be defeated again, which has proven to be "beyond our capabilities" over the past three years.
I am still convinced that "Marengo"* is still possible for us, but it is clearly beyond the capabilities of the current "Bonapartes" (And they clearly no longer have the task of "winning". Their only task is to hold on to power. The "VIPs" categorically do not want to believe that it is impossible to accomplish the latter task without victory).
What I admit that I do not understand is what the nature of the planned territory “swaps” between Russia and Ukraine entails. Like, while the UAF was pushing in Kursk, they surrendered more territory in Donbass, a suburb. This indicates to me that they’re giving up Donetsk province, at least. Here:
The Ministry of Defense officially announced the liberation of Dzerzhinsk (Toretsk) in the DPR:
As a result of active offensive actions by units of the 1st, 9th and 132nd Guards separate motorized rifle brigades of the 51st Army and the volunteer formation "Veterans" of the "Center" group of forces, the city of Dzerzhinsk of the Donetsk People's Republic was liberated.
Another fortress has lost its strategic importance for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The advance of the Russian army continues.
But they want Kursk in exchange?
Strange.
Obviously, Kursk is far more valuable when bargaining with the Kremlin, so maybe it is a simple cost/benefit analysis.
reckons that this has to do with establishing a “Line of Contact” ceasefire.
Without Ukraine withdrawing from Kursk and Donbass, it’s unlikely that Putin could justify compromising on last June’s ceasefire demands that Ukraine withdraw from all the territory that Russia claims as its own and declare that it won’t join NATO. He can accept a delay on implementing the second till after the next parliamentary elections since Ukraine’s goal of joining NATO was enshrined as an amendment to the Constitution in 2019 and therefore can’t be removed without parliament’s support.
What Putin would be loath to accept is freezing the Line of Contact (LOC) even if the US coerces Ukraine into withdrawing from Russia’s Kursk Region as a quid pro quo since it would suggest that their sneak attack there last summer forced him to give up on his demands to disputed territory. Lending credence to that interpretation could raise the risk that Ukraine launches another sneak attack elsewhere along their international border if post-election peace talks stall in order to coerce more concessions from him.
Putin might settle for Ukraine only withdrawing from Kursk and Donbass in exchange for a ceasefire since the first is universally recognized as Russian, the second is at the heart of their territorial dispute, and demanding more might provoke the US into enforcing its secondary sanctions against China and India. As Kellogg recently said, sanctions enforcement is “only about a three” on a scale of one to ten so it could be increased if needed, which would put Putin in a tough position if Xi and Modi then pressure him.
I don’t know though.
It seems that we are accepting things at face value with this explanation.
Why do we assume that Trump wants to end the war and is willing to negotiate? Every day that it continues is a W for longterm US geostrategic interests. There’s no rush here. Every day that it continues hurts Russia, not the US. The only practical concern for negotiating is for redirecting resources to the sandbox to prepare for the Iran war next year. So long as the EUropeans commit troops to Ukraine, the US won’t have to and can focus on helping Israel’s agenda. I still struggle to understand why Washington would want things to stop. Sure, they want tangential goals to come about like:
the replacement of Zelensky who can’t be touched now because of the emergency dictatorial powers he granted himself
a breather to arm the UAF more comprehensively
a peace to rope the EUropeans into getting militarily involved as “peace keepers”
Meanwhile, it appears that Trump is going to throw his support behind the oligarchs that the Biden people foolishly alienated. Here:
The Trump administration’s Justice Department has disbanded a Biden-era program aimed at seizing the assets of Russian oligarchs as a means to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine.
The move to disband Task Force KleptoCapture is one of several moves undertaken by the Justice Department under the new leadership of Attorney General Pam Bondi that presage a different approach toward Russia and national security issues.
The department also ended the Foreign Influence Task Force, which was established in the first Trump administration to police influence campaigns staged by Russia and other nations aimed at sowing discord, undermining democracy and spreading disinformation. The U.S. government in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election aggressively moved to disrupt propaganda campaigns by Russia, which officials have assessed had a preference for Trump.
In a memo addressed to all employees Wednesday — the first day of Bondi’s tenure — the attorney general’s office stated that “attorneys assigned to those initiatives shall return to their prior posts, and resources currently devoted to those efforts shall be committed to the total elimination of Cartels and TCOs” — an acronym for Transnational Criminal Organizations.
While this is good for Putin because his #1 priority is to get sanctions lifted, it can also be a play to get the oligarchs to switch on Putin. The US strategy for Russia has always been to use the oligarchs and the secret police against Putin. Unfortunately for them, if their own reports and whining in the media is to be believed, Putin has been able to keep the siloviks (security forces) loyal to him and has persecuted some of the oligarchs who didn’t accept this status quo. Most of the oligarchs support Putin, as evidenced by the fact that Prigozhin’s mutiny didn’t succeed due to lack of elite support in Moscow.
Trump said he’d be calling Zelensky within the week and Putin soon after.
Chances are that nothing will come of it.
That’s why I’m not reporting enthusiastically about it all.
The massacres will continue in the Slavlands regardless.
In Putin's case the legend is fueled in particular by the "myth of multipolarity", coupled with the exaltation of the informal BRICS+ conglomerate, which supposedly represents an alternative to American-centric "unipolarity". The Russian president is also admired by anti-globalist circles for opposing the LGBT agenda and advocating the traditional family. The same wave of admiration is pouring over to Trump, who, once reinstalled in the White House, has also demonstrated by his decisions that he is sticking to this line.
We will not deploy here the idea well known to those who follow in depth the politics of the respective leaders, which are totally subordinated to the globalist agenda of technocracy and transhumanism, codified in the UN Agenda 2030, the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Klaus Schwab/WEF branded Great Reset. Nor will we repeat the perfectly true thesis that both Putin through BRICS and Trump through his claims to annex Canada, Mexico and Greenland are perfectly in line with the strategy elaborated by the Club of Rome as far back as 1974 with the 10 macro-regions on a global scale. These seem to dovetail perfectly with biblical prophecy. https://iurierosca.substack.com/p/trumpputin-messianism-cui-prodest have Iurie back on the podcast
What a destructive nonsense that war has been for Russia. And what a geopolitical victory for USA.
In Putin's case the legend is fueled in particular by the "myth of multipolarity", coupled with the exaltation of the informal BRICS+ conglomerate, which supposedly represents an alternative to American-centric "unipolarity". The Russian president is also admired by anti-globalist circles for opposing the LGBT agenda and advocating the traditional family. The same wave of admiration is pouring over to Trump, who, once reinstalled in the White House, has also demonstrated by his decisions that he is sticking to this line.
We will not deploy here the idea well known to those who follow in depth the politics of the respective leaders, which are totally subordinated to the globalist agenda of technocracy and transhumanism, codified in the UN Agenda 2030, the Fourth Industrial Revolution and the Klaus Schwab/WEF branded Great Reset. Nor will we repeat the perfectly true thesis that both Putin through BRICS and Trump through his claims to annex Canada, Mexico and Greenland are perfectly in line with the strategy elaborated by the Club of Rome as far back as 1974 with the 10 macro-regions on a global scale. These seem to dovetail perfectly with biblical prophecy. https://iurierosca.substack.com/p/trumpputin-messianism-cui-prodest have Iurie back on the podcast