INVASION: Kiev Performs Reverse SMO, Annexes Part of Kursk As Russian Army Caught TOTALLY Unprepared (yes, again)

I DID WARN YOU THAT LITERALLY THIS WOULD HAPPEN DID I NOT?

I don’t know where to start with this so let’s just take it straight from the top, and I will focus on highlighting all the relevant points raised by the news first. I won’t even be able to cover all the developments of the last two days. This is like the beginning of Moscow’s SMO against Kiev in terms of the barrage of updates and news that we are being subjected to. It will take a few days probably just to get the information out there. Then, in the coming days, I hope to return to each of the major news points to flesh them out in greater detail.

Just treat this as an overview of the unfolding disaster.

So, three days ago, the UAF launched a combined arms assault into Kursk that was wildly successful. The Russian war effort is, once again, facing a totally self-inflicted catastrophe because they were caught with their pants down.

There are at least 10K UAF troops deployed in 1991 borders Russia according to yesterday’s news. But it might be much more by now. They’re advancing on the nuclear power plant and weapons site and no one seems to know how far away they are now.

Here:

We see the thoughts of comrade Sladkov (https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/11114), comrade Podolyaka (https://t.me/yurasumy/16873) and a number of channels about the enemy's possible aspirations to take the Kursk NPP [Nuclear power plant, weapons station].

At the same time, our war mathematics do not add up. That is, the enemy now has several brigades in that area. Very conditionally, that is 10 thousand men. The depth of the offensive according to military science is exactly 10-20 km. But the Kursk NPP is 60 km from the current LBS and 70 km from the border. 90 km by road. This is already the depth of the offensive of an entire army, 50 thousand people are needed at the rate of offensive (here it coincides) 10-20 km per day.

That is, based on open data, the enemy is unlikely to have reserves to move to the Kursk nuclear power plant. And our Ministry of Defense just said that "the enemy's advance into the territory of the Russian Federation has not been allowed in the Kursk direction."

At the same time, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have repeatedly demonstrated the daring nature of their actions, guided not by military expediency, but by political goals.

(…)

They were given the green light to launch the attack.

They always had the capabilities, they were simply kept on a leash until this moment.

Putin will whine that Zelensky violated a gentlemans’ agreement, just you wait.

And another summary of the situation here:

🪖💥Kursk Front: The Ukrainian Armed Forces are conducting their first large-scale operation on the generally recognized territory of the Russian Federation since the beginning of the war. Local residents are begging officials to organize an evacuation

Despite yesterday's statements by the FSB and the Ministry of Defense that "there was no breakthrough," Ukrainian troops, having captured several Kursk villages, are advancing toward the city of Sudzha

[NOTE: more than half the city is taken now, possibly all of it.]

▪️During the fighting, both sides suffered losses. At least two Russian helicopters were shot down (https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/11113), two T-64 tanks (a vehicle from the 1960s) were destroyed (https://t.me/arrowsmap/5122), which were being transported to the scene of hostilities on automobile trailers (pictured on the left). Six soldiers were captured (https://t.me/istories_media/7151), including two conscripts (pictured in the center). Although back in March Putin ordered (https://rg.ru/2024/03/16/putin-poruchil-zamenit-srochnikov-na-specnaz-i-kontraktnikov-iz-za-ataki-vsu.html) to replace conscripts in the border regions with contract soldiers.

▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to gain a foothold in the Kursk region, they occupied several settlements near the border, are advancing towards Sudzha and are pulling up reserves, writes (https://t.me/rybar/62512) one of the largest Z-channels. War correspondent Sladkov claims (https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/11113) that the enemy has advanced 10 kilometers. Z-bloggers estimate the number of Ukrainian Armed Forces differently, from 900 to 2 thousand people. Yesterday, Russian media talked about 100-300.

▪️At least three civilians were killed and 20 were injured as a result of shelling and drone attacks. On Smirnov's VKontakte page, people are asking him to organize an evacuation from Sudzha (pictured on the right). Many write that they cannot contact relatives from border villages.

👉 The scenario of an attack on the Kharkiv region is being repeated, only in the opposite direction, military analyst Yan Matveyev told MO (https://t.me/arrowsmap). “The border cover on both sides is relatively weak. On the Russian side, there are only border guards and conscripts. Their task is to fight sabotage and reconnaissance groups; they are not capable of confronting full-fledged army forces. Therefore, the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to break through the border quite quickly. Russia does not have the resources to fully cover it. Well, the Ukrainian Armed Forces achieved concentration of forces; poor intelligence is a characteristic feature of the Russian army.”

🤡 The authorities have barely commented on the situation. The Ministry of Defense publishes an advertisement for contract service in the morning, and the governor calls (https://t.me/gubernator_46/7246) for people to donate blood for hospitals in the region.

So, a UAF mini-army is in Kursk (Russia) and not too far away from a critical nuclear facility. They’re taking undefended or barely defended large towns now.

That brings us to the first point for today:

Kiev proved that they still retain the ability to launched coordinated, combined arms assaults and “big arrow” (on the map) offensives.

This is a chin-scratching moment for the armchair e-generals on the Z-internet if ever there was one because and if they still possessed the ability to self-reflect because:

• We were told that drones and satellites had made such assaults impossible

• We were NOT told about the UAF troop build-up across the border, which should have been been impossible to mask because

• We were told that these concentrations of troops in areas ahead of an attack would simply get preemptively spotted and bombed

Remember: we were told that Russia’s armed forces are pursuing an optimal strategy based on the new realities of drone warfare which forced them into relying almost entirely on passive artillery defense and infantry wave attacks in urban or fortified areas. This is the justification for fighting this war the way that Russia has been fighting it — no large troop movements, no encirclements, no armor used as a battering ram, no coordinated, combined arms assaults. All supposedly because of a new military reality created by new tech.

Well, it turns out that this is simply not true.

The UAF continues to successfully use “blitzkrieg” tactics which just means they concentrate large amounts of troops and equipment in one area and use it together to break through defensive lines and to envelop them from behind, forcing either surrender or retreat. Russia, in contrast, relies on what can be described as WWI tactics instead. The few times they have tried to do armor assaults, they have failed miserably against Ukraine’s defenses, like at Ugledar.

Why is this the case though?

Well, there are several possibilities/reasons:

• Systematic degradation of the military under Putin and successive defense ministers have rendered the army incapable of combined arms assaults because of poor communications, poor training, incompetent command, old equipment, etc.

• Intelligence sabotage in the form of Shoigu and his minsters calling up the Pentagon or their colleagues in Kiev to leak ahead of time where/when a strike will occur (we know this was done with the Kinzhal strikes, bombing of Wagner in Syria) giving the Ukrainians an unfair advantage

• Internal squabbling between the various fiefdoms that constitute the hodgepodge mob euphemistically referred to as the Russian military. Ukraine has a national army, Russia has a force of oligarch-funded mercenaries, ethnic auxiliaries, local militiamen press-ganged into service, penal battalions of zeks, etc. Ukraine has all that too, but they also have a real, national army that forms the core of their military.

We have covered all of these possibilities/realities in detail on this blog before. Frankly, I think it is a combination of all three factors that hobbles the Russian military and one final, fourth factor above all else that I will touch on later. But, if you are a ZAnon believer, you think that it is Putin’s Antifa Jesus Morality Values that accounts for the bafflingly poor performance of the Russian military. The Kremlin is literally too good and fluffy and white to fight effectively … and that’s a good thing, apparently.

The Russian Government is Lying (again)

There have been several reactions to the developments in Kursk.

First, Zakharova said that this was some sort of “terrorism” event.

Then, Putin came on the TV and said that it was actually some sort of “provocation” designed to get Russia to react. He framed this large invasion as if it were something to be ignored and not taken seriously because … it is not clear, exactly, why he thinks it is insignificant. And what is he afraid of being provoked into doing?

Does he fear being forced to actually raise a proper national army?

Does he fear having to actually fight a serious war with his esteemed Western handlers?

Why does he fear having to do the right thing that Russia needs to win this war?

It was a strange use of terms, but oh so typical of the kind of Kremlin-speak that we’ve grown accustomed to hearing by now. They use such bizarre words and phrases that they put Orwell to shame, frankly. Routs are called “strategic regroupings” and side-deals with NATO are called “gestures of good faith” and so on.

Finally, Gerasimov immediately appeared in a video report yesterday to explain that the situation was already under control. Only, it wasn’t and isn’t of course:

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Statements by the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Valery Gerasimov at an emergency meeting of the Security Council

🔻Key points:

▪️The advance of the Ukrainian Armed Forces deep into Russia in the Kursk direction has been stopped.

▪️The losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces during the operation on the border of the Kursk region amounted to 315 people, of which at least 100 were killed, the rest were wounded.

▪️Since the beginning of the operation, Russian troops have destroyed 54 units of enemy equipment, including 7 tanks.

▪️The operation will be completed by defeating the enemy and reaching the state border of the Russian Federation.

▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the border of the Kursk region with about a thousand troops in order to seize the territory.

He claimed that 1000 Ukrainians had been thrown away and destroyed by Russian forces in Kursk. Back in the real world though, there are at least 10-15K UAF troops in Russia now, and Kiev can always send more to reinforce them.

We have videos that show burnt out vehicles along the roads and planes flying by as low as possible to avoid AA:

But the biggest, fattest whopper had to be the MoD claiming that the FSB had stopped the attack at the border.

SPOLER: the attack has NOT been stopped.

There are battles going on now for the town of Sudzha [actually, the UAF may have already taken it], which the UAF already controls the majority of. And the defenses for the city were not prepared, because of course, this is Putin’s Russia we are talking about!

There are, however:

• Panicked evacuations of civilians who are fleeing the UAF advance which are

• Not coordinated by the government but by the volunteer organizations on Telegram that the Kremlin has passed laws to outlaw because they are demoralizing and discrediting, apparently and contradicting

• Disinfo put out by the Kremlin claiming that there is nothing happening in Kursk and if there is something happening, it is just a “provocation” and not a full-blown military incursion into Russia proper by a prepared enemy who just waltzed right in.

Russia, in contrast, has to fight for every inch of the towns and cities in Ukraine — Kiev doesn’t gracefully allow them to enter their settlements without a fight like Putin so generously does. And, yes, everyone knew that this attack was coming except for, of course, the fucking morality supermen in Moscow.

Not even Putin’s once-defenders will defend him now. Here’s Tsiganov:

The large-scale breakthrough of the Russian border in the Kursk region has been given an official definition - "a provocation", during which the Armed Forces of Ukraine "are conducting indiscriminate shooting from various types of weapons, including missiles, at civilian buildings, residential buildings, ambulances", and the Ministry of Defense again states that "advancement deep into the territory of the Russian Federation has not been allowed".

The Investigative Committee has opened a criminal case on terrorism, Manturov has been authorized to coordinate the work of civilian agencies.

It is very difficult to find decent words for comments... This was also the case in the Belgorod region (Grayvoron, then Shebekino, Novaya Tavolzhanka) last year - only then they generally talked about sabotage and reconnaissance groups, and not about "units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine".

Lord, help your people!

Yes, we are all praying that Lord Yahweh will step in and help the Slavic peoples, just like he did in 1917. This time, for sure, he’ll side with us and not his Chosen nation of priests, eh?

Anyway.

Residents in the region have been begging Moscow for help since the days of the battle of Bakhmut. Remember: Prigozhin promised to set up camp there and to stabilize the situation, but he was told that it would be considered treason if he did so. In more recent times though, there have been efforts to self-organize into militias that have, of course, been quashed by Putin’s secret police.

Tsarev explains the situation here:

But there was a good proposal to create a people's militia in the Kursk and Belgorod regions. Train and arm the locals who know every detail of their villages. Allow them to carry weapons. And even the men recorded a video (https://t.me/olegtsarov/6430) asking for weapons and training. And the skilled military were ready to provide instructors and bases. But no, it didn't work out. It's a pity, they would be very helpful now. Where are all the militia units that were filmed for news channels? I said that it was all a show. If the militia doesn't have weapons, then it's not a militia. And that's what happened, unfortunately.

Tsarev is too polite.

The residents spilled the beans a long time ago and explained that the FSB sent its murderous goons in to disarm the population and to disband any informal militias as potentially seditious. They based this accusation on the plea for help that the residents sent to Wagner. Now these residents get to enjoy the tender mercies of the UAF. Many residents there speak a kind of surzhik Ukrainian-Russian slang, but I suppose their Ukrainianess is up to the SBU torturers to decide.

The Gas Pipeline Conspiracy

One possible reason why Moscow didn’t fortify the area was because they almost certainly had some sort of gentleman’s agreement with Kiev and Washington to leave the area alone.

The reason?

This is a major gas hub sending supplies to the countries that are supplying Kiev’s war effort. The Kremlin no doubt argued that Sudzha should be left alone so that weapons-manufacturing costs for NATO could be kept low with cheap Russian gas.

Here:

Half of all Russian gas exports to the EU pass through Sudzha, to which Banderovites are breaking through. Slovakia and Austria depend on this route. From the latter, gas goes to Italy, Germany, and the Czech Republic.

If Sudzha stops, Austria and Slovakia will suffer the most, because they will be left without gas.

The Ukrainians have set their sights on something sacred for the privatizers - their gas! Maybe after this they will finally start fighting for real?

Actually, Moscow has been sending more and more gas to the Satanic Analic Intolerant West as the conflict has continued. This year broke records. Here:

In fact, they’re still pumping gas to Ukraine and NATO right now as the UAF army advances towards Moscow.

Incredible stuff, folks.

Have they gone insane? Have we gone insane?

Well, judging by Telegram’s reactions, lots of Russians are finally asking some hard questions about the “sanity” of the Kremlin. Here is Sladkov (Kremlin-adjacent frontline correspondent) asking some very basic questions to which he is not being given any answers:

“I wonder what laws and documents we are guided by in repelling the attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk region? A counter-terrorist operation has been declared, then, according to the law, the main commander becomes the Chief of the Kursk FSB. Everyone obeys him.

Or are they just hooligans? Then let the Ministry of Internal Affairs sort it out. But the “hooligans” have tanks and missiles.

If this is an SMO, then all the combatants are recognized as participants, and the state admits that the war has been transferred to another region of Russia. And what other regulatory option for defining the situation is there — is there one at all?

At least in the draft?

The situation is difficult, everyone “blew it”. Do you have the name of the military man responsible, or someone else?

Now I am told: “Shut up, we’ll repel the attack and figure it out.”

We won’t figure it out. This is a lesson learned.

Why didn't you prepare your defense in advance?

a) you didn't know they would attack?

b) you knew, but didn't do anything significant?

What other option is there?"

Is he a traitor for asking the obvious?

When will we be allowed to ask questions?

After Two More Years of SMOing?

…

Stabilnosti!

A Rybar (former spooks with Kremlin connections) report is cautiously, optimistically, pessimistic. This is the “moderate” i.e., mostly correct, but still designed to deceive the masses that all will be well eventually report and it is grim.

Here:

Kursk area: a relative stabilization of the front line

What is known by the end of August 7, 2024

In the Kursk region, the situation in the Sudzhansky and Korenevsky districts continues to be quite difficult. In the evening, the regional authorities announced the introduction of a state of emergency in the region. The evacuation of the population is also continuing in several populated areas. However, partly - judging by fragmentary information - it was possible to stop the raids of the enemy's sabotage and reconnaissance groups and prevent further broad advancement.

▪️Ukrainian formations occupied the western half of Sudzha. At the moment, the line of combat contact runs along the dam area - it is a lowland through which a fairly small river Sudzha flows.

At the same time, from the Russian side, this area is defended by local militia units, who were tasked with preventing the penetration of Ukrainian Armed Forces units into the eastern part of the city. The next line of defense of Russian fighters runs along the railway tracks.

[Nonsense: no militias to speak of.]

▪️Civilians fled the destroyed city throughout the day. By evening, enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group activity was already recorded at the eastern exit, the roads around the administrative center were under enemy control, and small arms battles began in the city.

At the same time, footage is being distributed online that allegedly confirms the absence of Ukrainian formations in Sudzha. One of them is a "current" report (https://t.me/riakursk/23276) from Izvestia, however, it was published (https://t.me/izvestia/181081) this morning, and could have been filmed even earlier.

📌Why make such an inept anti-crisis, who came up with it in the era of OSINT and the ability to think - one can only guess. Unfortunately, in reality, this only causes irritation.

▪️On the section of the highway northeast of Sudzha, a Ukrainian drone attacked a car in which war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny was located: he was evacuated in serious condition (https://t.me/rybar/62540) to a local hospital, but war correspondent Alexander Kots confirmed (https://t.me/sashakots/48261) that Poddubny is conscious and alive.

▪️In the northwestern section, Russian troops repelled an enemy attack on a section of the Rylsk-Sudzha highway near the workers' settlement of Korenevo. Ukrainian formations retreated to their original positions with losses. To the south, units of the Russian Armed Forces are conducting intense battles on the Loknya-Nikolsky-Viktorovka-Kruglenkoye line.

Apparently, Ukrainian formations are trying to break through to Malaya Loknya, from where they will move along the highway in the direction of Lgov: they have already started (https://t.me/rybar/62537) to equip additional lines of defense and planned evacuation of the population in case of an enemy breakthrough.

▪️By evening, footage (https://t.me/boris_rozhin/132695) appeared on the Internet with Russian prisoners of war who are being escorted to the Ukrainian side through the Sudzha checkpoint. With a high degree of probability, most of them are conscripts (…) .

🔻Despite the active transfer of reinforcements, the rapid build-up of the cover group and the involvement of reserves, the main problem has not yet been resolved: the number of Ukrainian formations, the reserves of military equipment in the direction and the military potential of the enemy have not been exhausted. The second echelon is preparing to enter the battle (https://t.me/Sladkov_plus/11123): a high concentration of forces is also noted in other areas of the Kursk region.

📍Considering the pulled-up (https://t.me/rybar/62535) engineering equipment, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will consolidate their positions in the captured settlements. It is, of course, too early to call what is happening a decisive battle for the Russian borderland and a turning point in the North-Eastern Military District, but the scale of the forces and resources pulled to the Russian borders demonstrates that this time it is unlikely to be like with Kozinka (https://t.me/rybar/47463): apparently, the Ukrainian command is seriously counting on some kind of strategic success.

❗️We would like to separately note the heroism of the border guard units, who were the first to accept the battle. There are still reports of successful (or unsuccessful) evacuation of individual points and outposts: the full picture will probably only become clear in a week. But unfortunately, the losses are unacceptably high. And the one-time number is comparable to the wars of the last century.

Look: the only way that the situation “stabilizes” is if Kiev runs out of men to hold the territory they’ve taken and to expand further. There’s a math to how many troops per square kilometer of taken territory an army needs to have. With only 10K-15K men, Kiev does not have enough to take the whole oblast’. They may have not expected to have such success so quickly, actually and so under-committed.

BUT: if they pour in reserves, they could easily get the numbers up to 100K or more.

Kiev has a huge manpower reserve to draw from because they have done multiple mobilizations. Moscow, in contrast, has not. What is scary to consider is that Russia has NOTHING to commit to this new front. That is, there are absolutely no reserves. Well, there’s the Chechens, but Telegram says that they ran away from battle against the advancing Ukrainian army. They are notoriously bad soldiers and only good for terrorizing civilians and torturing prisoners. And there is Putin’s personal guard in the form of the FSB and the National Guard, which was the only unit that defended Putin against Prigozhin.

It is 99% unlikely that Putin will send these men to the front and by doing so weaken his grip on power.

The only troops Russia can commit are those who are already on the front.

And if they redeploy those troops, then they weaken another section of the front. This is what it means to fight a war with a much smaller army. The enemy can maneuver in ways that you can’t. That is why it is so so so important to have a larger army than your opponent. The ZAnon propagandists who claimed that Russia had discovered a new way of making war were simply lying more brazenly than any regime propagandists have lied since … well, actually, this probably takes the cake.

They knew that no one would call them out for their lie because their primary audience are modern Christians, who are the most gullible and mentally-deluded demographic in the world. Very easy to bamboozle them with grand narratives of Morality Jesus Antifa Values Wars that the rules of combat no longer apply to because God has chosen to play favorites for their side.

Delusional.

ZAnon is, of course, rationalizing Kursk away as a kind of trap that Putin cleverly lured the UAF into. And they said the same thing when the UAF over-ran the lines near Kharkov, forcing a “successful regrouping” which in Kremlin-speak means, a disgraceful and disorganized rout that left behind marooned men and abandoned equipment as the cockroach higher-ups simply tucked tail and ran without telling their men anything.

This is a repeat that, thankfully, is on a smaller scale.

But, from what we can see, significant numbers of Russian prisoners have been taken by the UAF and positions abandoned without much of a fight because of unpreparedness … or worse. And if we zoom out, we can see a clear trend: things are getting worse for Russia with time, not better.

Here:

Few people at the beginning of the SMO could imagine that 2 years later the hohols would enter the Kursk region, capture conscripts and continue to advance deeper into the Kursk NPP. But, alas, this is reality. And the solution is banal. The old men are strangling Russia. With their stupidity, tolerance, inertia of thinking, slowness and clumsiness.

Can anyone argue that thing are getting better for Russia and not worse?

The problem is 90% the political caste that sits in the Kremlin now. The other 10% is the peasants themselves. We can’t do much about our situation, but we could have definitely done more than absolutely fuck-all nothing. Russians should be buying firearms and organizing informal militias with their family and close friends. All people should be doing this, actually. Just look at what is going on in the UK and Ireland, for example. The government is openly working with the invaders to attack random White Britons on the streets with hammers and machetes or batons from horse-mounted bobbies. It is a total mask-off moment for the government. And Russians will need to prepare for the same scenario because in the coming months and years their country will be subjected to a civil war again.

I tell everyone that I can to get prepared, get a gun, get some friends, lose some weight, go to the dentist and so on while they still have time. I sincerely hope some of them listened to me, but I very strongly doubt that any did.

And that’s all I have time for today.

I’ve been frantically trying to keep up with all the info flooding in as I’ve been on the road again. These big black swan events always happen when I’m tired and traveling.I have another half-completed piece of updates and speculations and raging at the government already half-filled. Best to cut this one short there and start up again fresh tomorrow. We’re in TMI territory already as is. Strap in for what tomorrow will bring.

**

And now, let me gloat a bit.

My Stalkers will be the first to confirm that I did specifically claim, multiple times, and quite recently that Kiev would invade, specifically, this area.

I also insisted that peace negotiations were a no-go because Kiev would go on the offensive again soon with all the new weapons that they bought. Also, I painstakingly explained many, many, many times that Moscow is suffering from a severe manpower deficit which means that they will always be at the mercy of Kiev’s offensives and will always be on the defensive in this war, not the ones dictating terms. And here we all are … now …

This should prove that I do indeed see and understand what is happening with this conflict very clearly while others simply do not. Frankly, it is simply indisputable at this point and my track record is, in fact, so good that it causes resentful seething even from people who grudgingly do admit that the “doomer” or “pessimist” position has been VINDICATED.

When I make these predictions, I am closer to the truth than any other English-language analyst. Surely, at this point, even the most stubborn of my hate-readers will at least take my words into consideration.

Feel free to reward honest and prescient writing with a paid sub.

Irony of ironies, I continue to hemorrhage support just as all my predictions start coming to pass.

Being right doesn’t pay. Could we change that?