Is Iran Winning, Really?

How many more years of "winning" can we all handle?

Years ago, I pledged that when Iran was finally turned on and destroyed by Israel and America, that I wouldn’t switch focus to covering that tragedy. This was Slavland Chronicles and not Swarthland Chronicles after all. I believe that this was the right decision then and the right decision now.

For starters, back then I had access to Telegram samizdat, which I translated from Russian when the Donbass war broke out. Telegram will be banned by the end of the month in Russia now, and there have been a string of rolling internet blackouts in Moscow last week. Something foul is brewing in the Kremlin, and I am afraid that whatever fresh atrocity Putin and his FSB are planning to commit on Russia might get a head start because of their ability to cover up their tracks via shutting down the internet. But more on that in the coming days and weeks.

When I started writing, I thought I could provide the analyses of soldiers and non-Liberal dissidents to a Western audience. I thought that it would be greatly in demand, however, I was very, very wrong. Westerners proved to only be interested in listening to Western intelligence agents telling them tall tales about Putin’s phantom victories and the strategic genius of her supposed allies. Anyone who wasn’t mobbed up with an intelligence agency like Ritter, Raevsky, Marytanov, Macgregor, Escobar (3 different agencies, according to his own bragging) and the rest, was immediately labeled a “CIA-Satanist” by the people who quite literally bragged about being “former” CIA.

Ah-may-zin!

Tell people what they want to hear and they’ll never question you, apparently.

Anyway, for all my gloating about how right I always am, one of the most important predictions that I got dead wrong, consistently, was how much bullshit people were willing to tolerate. Surely, after 2 years of SMOing, with nothing to show for it, Westerners would start to doubt the ZAnon plan? I made prediction after prediction that, sooner or later, people would wake up and start realizing that Putin was clearly either a Western asset or so pathetic and weak and incompetent that he was as good as the same thing. I provided analyses, translations, predictions, lore dumps — everything I could think of to present proofs for the thesis that there was more to the Kremlin than met the eye.

Did I win that battle though?

Well, that’s hard to say.

On the one hand, four years on, I clearly didn’t win that narrative battle, like at all, by any sane or quantifiable measure of “winning”. On the other hand, people don’t like losers, so I must continue to pretend that I’m winning and that the scales are falling from peoples’ eyes and that soon, very soon, people will start to check out of the controlled opposition Z-narrative en masse.

But let’s be real.

First of all, I never managed to breach “containment” and never really got my message out there to any significant numbers of people. And I got myself blacklisted and banned from most feeder sites that had initially tolerated my analyses (when they were Z-triumphalist). Still, I did manage to chronicle my own journey piecing together disparate bits of conspiracy lore and impartial analyses here and there in unconnected spheres of analysis to present something that I am very proud of. A working frame, a model for making sense of the world in the aftermath of WWII, and in the aftermath of the implosion of the USSR all the more so.

But it took me a lot of effort and wasted hope to guide even a couple hundred Stalkers into the Zone, as it were. To show them the full extent of the conspiracy. From Andropov’s neo-Trotskyist agenda, all the way back to the original Platonist deception. It was a great journey that we went on and I thank you for joining me on it if you ever did indeed take the plunge. I can honestly say, that you join a very select group of people, surely not more than several thousand anywhere in the world, that can even answer the question of why the largest and most powerful land empire in the known history of the world collapsed in on itself literally over night.

You’d think that people would be interested in that story.

But again, like I said, that was an incorrect assumption to make.

…

Mostly, I think it is pointless for me to try and inject some realism and sanity into the Iran conversation at the current moment. The narratives surrounding this war have diverged so sharply and severely that what I am seeing and what others are seeing is simply too far removed for us to see common ground.

Case in point, Iranian government accounts and their social media influencers were spamming this picture everywhere, claiming to have killed Bibi last week with a hypersonic missile.

I had people angrily sending me “proofs” that Bibi was dead and that my pro-Israel shilling operation was now exposed. What can I do to convince people so radically untethered from reality of anything, or even break through the cognitive, emotional knee-jerk reaction to immediately label me an enemy just for doubting sloppy disinfo propaganda?

For now, nothing.

I’ve learned my lesson from four years of chronicling the Slavlands massacres. And I don’t have it in me to endlessly compile proofs and common sense arguments about why the Tehran government was clearly run by Western assets that undermined the military potential of 90 million people to effectively resist their enemies. To my mind, the results are plain to see — the entire country is in a daze, prostrate, sucking its thumb and unable to mobilize for self-defense, let alone total war against their enemies.

We will only return to the topic of Iran in the coming weeks when bigger news starts coming out like:

• US Marines start seizing oil facilities and securing the straits to avoid paying Tehran a safety tax. I believe that Washington believes they can resume 80-90% strait outflow within 90 days. It is in Israel’s interests to not let Washington achieve this aim, and to convince them that only more and more drastic bombings will bring the Iranian military to heel.

• The reason why Turkey is getting hit with so many Israeli hysterics is because they are yanking on the chain of the whole Kurdish op, trying to extract concessions for allowing this quasi-army off the leash like Israel wants.

• A few people seem to think that the threat from Baku has passed because … why? Just this week, Ben Shapiro, a personal friend of Bibi, bragged on air that we’d see Baku cross over into Iran and start arming Azeri separatists. If anything, I’m more bullish on this than I was a week ago because I haven’t seen any indications of a full-on American invasion being prepared to take Tehran. That leaves only Baku as the true hammer that will strike home the nail. I don’t understand why they wouldn’t? Iran has demonstrated nothing but weakness and fecklessness so far — not an effective deterrent.

Now, everyone is basically arguing over whether Iran is “winning” or not.

Of course, this all depends on how we define “winning”. And, let’s cut right to the chase — there is no established consensus on what winning entails. Everyone is just trying to get you to accept their version of what victory entails and then arguing that these parameters have been or are soon to be met.

Which, once you know the rules of the game and how the game is being played …

1. Define terms as you see fit

2. Fit reality to the terms you laid out

3. ???

4. Declare victory

No, I don’t think that Iran is “winning” because, in my view of the world, getting bombed to smithereens with NO functioning air defenses after supposedly spending DECADES building one up as your primary military strategy is NOT a form of “winning”. A simple test to see whether or not someone is winning is to ask yourself, “would I want my son and daughters and parents and friends to be subject to such winning”?

What about you?

No?

Huh.

Interesting.

Perhaps the people writing essays about Iran “winning” have actually redefined the word to mean “not quite dead yet”. Plug “not quite dead yet” into these essays and see how much more sense they make. Take Keith Woods’ latest in which he lays out the reasons for why he believes that Iran is opening up a can of kick ass on America and Israel:

So the situation on the Strait currently is:

1. The U.S. cannot stop the Iranians mining it

2. It would take the U.S. months to clear after it’s mined

3. The U.S. cannot safely provide escorts while there is a credible risk from missiles and drones

4. The U.S. cannot eliminate the threat of missiles and drones without a ground invasion

5. No amount of bombing will bring Iran any closer to a democratic revolution

The market is still pricing in a TACO and a quick resolution, but the Trump administration’s approach has left them with no choice but to fundamentally change this dynamic and establish real deterrence. That means seizing this opportunity and imposing real pain on the U.S. by strangling the world economy. Iranian analysts say they will be willing to wait this out months and seek financial compensation for Israel and the U.S. ravaging their country. Don’t expect Russia to intervene, they are going to benefit enormously from the rise in oil and gas prices and the diversion of U.S. military focus to the Gulf. China is still getting millions of barrels of oil delivered through the Strait.

First, allow me a boring and obsequious qualifier before I go further.

Now, I don’t know much of anything about Keith other than that he is an Irish-Marxist-Nationalist (???) who works for Nick Fuentes and before that, Richard Spencer, a Nietzschean Philosopher-King activist most famous for getting drunk in public and shrieking death threats at ugly people on the streets as a way to protest the Deep State. Depicted here:

Keith also gets retweeted by Elon Musk on occasion. But besides his poor choice in internet friends, he seems to also have been very outspoken against the Anti-Defamation League in America and that’s definitely a sign that we’re vaguely “allies” at least in our counter-semitic leanings.

Ideologically, I’m sure I could find something to disagree on with just about anyone.

But, my whole “ideology” is being as anti-ideology as I can be, and so I don’t think I have any real reason to beef with this man. I also don’t think that I have any anti-Irish racism, so I am not motivated by an identity-based animus towards his people and his culture. In fact, the only reason why I am commenting on his analysis is because someone who read both me and him asked me to.

All these qualifiers that I’m throwing in here which are killing the flow of the essay and making me look like a bitch who is afraid of an internet fight are really unbecoming of me and the e-persona I have crafted for myself. But, I also really do, do, do want to stress that I have no hidden reason to spitefully disagree with this person, or with people like him who say similar things to what he says. If, tomorrow, we could put these anti-Israel bloggers and Tweeters and ZAnoners in charge of the government, I’d be all for it.

Sadly, I strongly believe that truth is more important than getting along with people, financial success, and fame/status accumulation.

And I don’t think that lying about the situation gets us anywhere.

With that out of the way, let’s just take all of Keith’s arguments for Iran “winning” as being true, for now. Even if they are true, NONE of this sounds like “winning” to me, to how I would define it. It sounds more like when he says “winning” he really means, “they are not quite dead yet, and can make it difficult still” to me.

As for the arguments themselves, they are very weak, so let’s go down the list he himself made above.

1. Why CAN’T the US prevent them from mining the straits? This is a question of military and mechanical technics, and whether or not Iran has remote-guided mines that actually work or whether, like the air defenses, they are also non-existent or turned off. If anyone were actually interested in the military capabilities of any military or weapons system, they could avail themselves of analyses and reports of actual military enthusiasts, who take great joy in explaining how each and every weapons system works, their vulnerabilities and counters. I highly recommend Sofa Strategist — because of him, I’ve learned far too much about how air defenses actually work and how drone swarms are coordinated. Why make a bold assertion about a military-technical capability of the American Navy when you are not a military analyst who studies weapons systems and when you have access to the internet, where you can indeed find many such analysts, who are more than happy to sit you down for a YouTube lecture and share their expertise?

2. I don’t think it is true that sea mines are some veritable underwater Wall of China equivalent. This is, again, simply a question military weapons systems and their capabilities. Luckily for us, this one is quite easy to answer: it all depends on how many underwater drones the US is willing to expend on these as of yet non-existent mines and how good their detection technology is, that’s all. This is a moot point, or a purely hypothetical one, seeing as the straits have not been mined. Nor do I think they will be. The government in Tehran wants to keep selling oil so that they can take the money and escape the country with it, to the West, where their families and properties are.

3. Here, we have a fundamental conceptual error which shows a lack of understanding not of a military weapons system (understandable, forgivable) but of underlying realities. Washington would, presumably, send their ship escorts in the first place to deter any Iranian strikes all together. Either by providing actual defenses against potential strikes or by using their ships as a kind of “trip-mine” in and of themselves. The Iranians have proven too scared of the consequences of actually touching any American ships. In the same way that NATO intends to use their troops deployed to Ukraine to act as a deterrent, knowing that Moscow fears the consequences of hurting the hairs on their heads and the just cause for escalation that this will grant NATO.

4. Iranian missiles launches are down what, like 90+% now? They claim that they’ve got plenty in reserve, OK. But, objectively, the much-feared mass retaliatory salvo from Iran has come and passed. And yes, the results of it are still being tallied up. But has this salvo deterred the Judeo-Americans at all? No, absolutely not. Immediately, we can conclude that it was a complete and total failure and a waste of time, money and officers on Iran’s part. Certainly, a lot of people have lost a lot of money on their luxury condo investments in UAE thanks to the missiles? And yeah, there have been some hits on Israel, especially that fireball on the condominium that we all saw last week. Probably there were some other hits here and there too that we are not seeing thanks to the censorship. But will the kill count tick over to at more than 300 Israelites from the missiles and drones? I strongly doubt it. For Americans, after more than two weeks of bombing, we are at how many dead now? 10? 11? That’s less than one golem dead per day. Not good.

5. … OK? Folks … are there … are there really still people who think that Washington “failed” in Ukraine, Iraq, Venezuela, etc. because they failed to install a true Democracy in the wake of their bombs? Ridiculous. If people actually believe that this was ever a goal, to leave a functioning, open, advanced country in the wake of invasions and coups and proxy wars, then they are truly missing some brain cells. Yes, if you define “winning” as setting up a vibrant American-style “Democracy for women and gays” (to paraphrase Trump) in Iran, then yes, Washington is still losing this war to Iran. But if you define “winning” as blowing Iran’s leadership and military to pieces while crippling the country economically, forcing mass exoduses and secession and strife down the line, then Washington is well on the way towards winning. By actually believing US propaganda about nation-building, we enter into truly surreal territory where the supposed dissidents are using fake narratives of Washington to justify their own declarations of victory. Very not good.

…

Never has the maxim of the blog that “the wars are fake, but the massacres are real” been more apt. We are operating under a nigh total informational blackout. Israel is not letting news get out. Lebanon is not letting news get out (even though a serious invasion with hundreds of soldiers (Hezbollah) already dead is occurring as we speak). Azerbaijan and Turkey are essentially totalitarian states with no media freedom to speak of — who the hell knows what is going on there in the build-up to the invasion of Iran. The most verifiable information that we have now are videos from the Gulf states and footage from within Iran, of American and Israeli bombs going off in cities and critical infrastructure with spectacular ensuing mushroom clouds and fireballs.

In lieu of this, I will NOT be providing updates on this completely one-sided and sadistic massacre of Iranians, barring some sort of big event where I can make a quick post to gloat about being right and everyone else being wrong.

Instead, I want to finally get around to covering some of the Neoplatonic wizardry of the mullahs that the CIA put in charge of Tehran and the purges of all left-leaning, Soviet-aligned or well-educated Iranians under the backwards and deeply subversive Islamo-Platonic regime. I will also cover the esoteric connection between Zoroastrianism and Judaism that Dugin and others likes to hint at, the neo-Zoroastrian CIA revival movement, and talk about the role that Persia/Iran plays in Jewish eschatological prophecy.

Historically, we know that it the toppling of Rome was achieved by the hands of a network of subversives and their evil religion. But did this effort have state-backing from somewhere? And was that somewhere from a sympathetic government in Persia?

I’ll share my speculation on the matter.

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