Just Two More Weeks

Over on The Boomer’s blog, an article immediately jumped out at me titled, “Why have I stopped posting maps of the situation in the Ukraine and a few other questions”.

Funny enough, I was planning to write a similar post explaining why I wasn’t giving updates on the war situation in the Donbass. Let me post mine first before we get into Saker’s.

1. I’m not a military expert, so it would basically be me relaying information from Telegram channels that I trust.

2. I don’t trust any Telegram channels because they’ve all been proven wrong over and over again except for a few small niche ones that post about stuff that I can’t verify one way or the other.

3. Nothing on the strategic level has changed. We are in a WWI-style situation here where large concentrated movements are no longer occurring.

4. The real interesting part of the analysis, for me at least, was in talking about the effects that the war would have on Slavland society and the West, and these effects aren’t changed by one or two villages switching hands over the course of a week of hard fighting

My reasons are basically entirely related to my own preferences for the topics that I chose to write about and the informational shum that we find ourselves in making it hard to relay verifiable info to my readers.

Saker’s reasons, however, are different.

He basically says that Russia has switched to an ingenious new attrition strategy and, as a result, isn’t making big moves that he can report on with accuracy anymore. As usual, despite not predicting this change in strategy and assuring everyone almost half a year ago that a large sweeping Donbass campaign would wipe out the “Ukro-Fasco-Bolshevik-Bandera-Zionist-Anglo-Pomeranian-Gook-Nazis” (his preferred nomenclature for the UAF) rather quickly, this new swerve in strategy is also, apparently, totally logical and entirely predictable if only you were paying attention and believing with your eyelids closed hard enough.

This part made me chuckle:

And, of course, the “favorite” one: you (and others) have said many times that Russia could and would defeat the Ukraine in days, a few week max.  So now do you admit that you were totally wrong?

First, let’s begin with the assumption of that question, that is to say that Russia did not defeat the Ukraine in days or weeks.  Is that even true?

Seeing as Ukraine is still fighting, it is, in fact, true. The German Army destroyed the Soviet Army in the West and thanks to lend-lease and the redeployment of the Eastern Army, the Soviet Union was able to fight on. Was the Soviet Union technically defeated by the Germany Army? No, of course not. Slippery logic, Saker.

I would argue that is is not.  The Russians *DID* successfully basically disable the Ukrainian armed forces in the first few days and weeks of the war: almost the entire Ukrainian air force was destroyed and so were much of the Ukrainian air defenses.  As for the ground forces, they have failed to execute a single effective counter-attacks, at most they claimed that every Russian retreat was a result of their counter-attacks, but let me ask a simple question here: if those counter-attacks were successful, where is the result???  Nothing, well, other that the utterly fictitious fairy tales coming out of Kiev, of course.  And since Kiev has been wall-to-wall lying about everything from Day 1 of the SMO, how can anybody take their grandiose statements seriously?

Yeah, yeah, sure. But no one is claiming that Ukraine is performing particularly well here. That is not the issue.

First of all, I have some strategic questions that I want answered here. For example, what is the point of an attrition campaign waged against what the Kremlin itself says are “brother Slavs”? These men are being conscripted - in some cases rounded up at gunpoint by the regular and secret police. If they retreat or refuse to fight, they are incarcerated or shot. These men could, just as easily, be pointing their guns towards NATO if their commanding officers were Russians. Is there really any reason to be celebrating the success of an attrition campaign? Once Russia takes Ukraine, won’t there be less Ukrainians to then use against NATO? Is wiping out the entire military-age population really a “flawless victory epic style” like we are being led to believe?

Here’s the point where I get a stern talking to about the moral high ground on which Russia stands and a “how dare you?” from people who can’t into nuance.

One moment please.

First of all, no one can accuse me of not being a Putin fanboy. Second of all, I am an unabashed Russia shill. What’s more, I actually live in the Slavlands because I genuinely like being around my people, which is more than can be said for many Russian patriots providing analysis on the situation in the Slavlands while in Westeros themselves. While I was born in the Ukraine, I consider myself ethnically Russian and was hoping to get my hands on a Russian citizenship one day. Sadly, the FSB appears to have banned every other fighting-age Ukrainian male from traveling to Russia to claim the citizenship that Putin has so generously offered, and the Russian embassy is a useless organization staffed by mendacious fuckwits who don’t give a damn. But I’m still hoping that things will work out, eventually.

So, with all that out of the way, I just want to point out that I’m arguing in good faith and but still can’t help thinking that there seems to be some flaws in the Kremlin’s plan for the Ukraine. I did some journalisting on the topic and concluded that the Kiev campaign wasn’t a feint, but a failed coup d’etat. Then, I interviewed some people who believed that there wasn’t a fully fleshed-out plan for the Donbass campaign either. I thought that they brought up some interesting points that I felt were worth sharing with my audience. My conclusion is that the Kremlin didn’t think this through entirely (bad) and was operating with poor intelligence (very bad) but that they’re thinking on their feet and doing their best to adjust as they go along (very good).

Here’s Saker’s take:

Once this is understood, let me ask you three simple questions:

• Have I or anybody else declared that Russia would militarily defeat the combined forces of the US+NATO in days or weeks?

• How long would YOU estimate it would take the Russians to achieve such a goal?

• Do you really not see that IN SPITE of that massive and total support of the West, Russia is well on her way to do just that, to defeat not only the best and biggest proxy force in US history, but also all the efforts of the combined West to defeat Russia militarily and economically?

If you did not see this, say, even one month or two ago, I could understand.  But if you STILL don’t smell the coffee, then I declare you hopeless, encourage you to stop reading this article and stay away from this blog :-)

Seriously, if the combined West had left the Ukronazi regime in Kiev to its own devices “Ze” would have had to capitulate about 10 days into the SMO, if only to spare the lives of Ukrainian soldiers and civilians.

So, basically, Saker has moved the goalposts. He says that Russia could not have guessed that they’d be fighting NATO in Ukraine (intelligence failure then, no?), which is why, technically, they did in fact defeat Ukraine, but need more time to defeat NATO.

Saker then casually insults his audience (typical) and says that Zelensky would have surrendered in 10 days to spare civilian lives otherwise.

Me, I think it’s quite clear that Zelensky, being a Jew, would have done everything in his power to get as many Slavs killed and that this is the goal of the war from ZOG West’s perspective. I also think it was quite clear that the West would get involved if the war wasn’t wrapped up quickly. Most dissident right-wing Western political commentators seemed to understand this from the get-go as well. Apparently, the Kremlin and the Saker did not though:

Did the Russians expect such a massive reaction from the West?  The term “expect” is very misleading.  That is not how these things work.  Operational and strategic plans are not based on a single scenario which you “hope” will materialize.  Here are also two things which we should always remember:

• It is the job of the intelligence agencies and the operations planning departments to prepare and model for as many possible scenarios (or scenarii?) as reasonably imaginable.

• Operational and strategic plans do not deal with tactical issues and they CONSTANTLY change depending on a feedback and decision making loop.

The term “expect” is not misleading. Everyone knows what it means. First, the Saker says that the Kremlin and himself did not expect the NATO lend-lease program, which is why the war is dragging on. Then he says:

I am very confident that the Russians were fully prepared for the West’s insane and, frankly, suicidal reaction to the SMO.  In fact, that “maximal” response was one of the MANY contingencies which the Russians must have prepared for.  As a former intelligence analyst, I can tell you that military analysis does look at as many options as possible and then the operational planning folks make their own preparations for any contingency.

You can’t have it both ways, Saker.

In your desire to blindly rah-rah-rah for your side, you refuse to consider uncomfortable facts that run contrary to your pre-formed narrative: 5D Chess Multipolar Anti-Fascist Eurasian Russia defeats Racist-Fascist-Anglo-Zionist-Liberal-Crusader West.

All that being said, I agree that the Kremlin is still in pretty good shape simply because the West has proven itself to be far more incompetent than even the most optimistic doomsday prophet was able to predict. We now know that only 30% of the weapons promised to Ukraine make it anywhere near the frontlines. We know that soldiers and even officers are going unpaid. Weapons are malfunctioning and no counter-Western offensives have succeeded, despite the media fanfare.

Does that mean that the war will soon be over? Here’s Saker’s take:

How long will this war last?

I cannot answer that because the answer depends entirely on: how suicidally stupid the leaders of the AngloZionist Empire are?

The Ukrainian forces in the eastern Ukraine have no hopes for an orderly retreat anymore, so they will be destroyed.  How soon?  I don’t know, that depends on the folks in the trenches and how strong a grip the Nazis have over that force.

Saker was quite confident that the Russians would have broken through the lines about 2 months ago. Now we’re at “idk lol”. Also, Saker believes that the Ukrainian Army is now entirely under the control of NATO and also proclaimed that most of the Nazis were eliminated way back when in Mariuple. So are we back to using the term “Nazi” to mean people that we don’t like or are we talking about actual Neo-Nazi prison gangs? There are, admittedly, still some Nazi private militias in Kharkiv, one of their strongholds, but I don’t think any serious person believes that they are running this operation. Basically, the man is incoherent, is what I’m saying. I feel uncomfortable with him representing the Russian race to the Western dissident world.

Anyways.

Me, I’ll boldly proclaim that in two more weeks Kiev will be taken and then just pretend I didn’t say that or meant something else when the two weeks are up. The Virgin accurate, sober predictor v the Chad misinformation spreader.

Meanwhile, countries all over the world are moving to dump the USD because they rightly view it as a) unstable and b) as a weapon of US foreign policy that can be used against them. The US has sunk a knife into the back of its European vassal states by effectively forcing themselves into energy starvation. In the meantime, the domestic ruling class is making itself more and more reviled and hated. They seem to be either unaware of this (tone-deaf) or so malicious and conceited that they simply no longer care about the opinions of the peasants and the proles. China has gotten into the game as well. For some reason the West has decided to start a two-front war in what appears to be a completely unforced error on their part. Is this hubris? Desperation? Stupidity? Madness? Greed? 5D Chess? Does the Pentagon have access to alien tech that will enable them to win the next war and that’s why they’re basically attacking everyone at once now?

We don’t know.

Either the ruling caste in the West is playing 5D chess on a level that we can’t even begin to fathom or it appears that they are making a lot of errors. People will interpret these events whichever way suits their temperament, I suppose.

All this is to say that the West is, indeed, paying for its adventure in the Ukraine. But let’s not delude ourselves here. Russia is losing Russian soldiers and potential Russian soldiers as well. Furthermore, there aren’t that many Slavs in the world. I should point out that there been no Bolshevik revolution, there might have been 400 million of us now. But that’s all shoulda, woulda, coulda type thinking. Sadly, the fact is that we’re at 200 million all-together and we’re not reproducing at replacement rates. Neither are the French, Germans or Americans for that matter.

Also, the Kremlin, unfortunately, went along with the vax hoax and we’re seeing people dropping dead from Sputnik in Russia as well. An unforced somewhat forced error on their part. Imagine if they had rejected the WEF/Davos/Gates genetic slurry. Well, we’d be sitting pretty watching our enemies keel over and cackling like the Bond villains we’re portrayed to be. Instead, we find ourselves in the same sinking boat as our enemies … again.

What Russia does have going for it is the fact that Putin pulled out his kosh on the oligarchs in the early period of his rule and has been forced to do so again in recent months. Furthermore, organized Liberal political and media projects have been shut down in recent months as well. Migrants are a problem in Russia, yes, but there is no evidence for the existence of a top-down wide-scale population replacement agenda like there is in the West.

I’ve reported on this extensively and I see it as a very positive step forward by the people running Russia and a sign that they’re getting serious.

I think that the plan ought to be simple going forward.

1. Take as much of the Slavlands as possible as quickly as possible

2. Fully decouple from the West and put up a giant wall between East and West

3. Fix the internal problems plaguing Russian society (secret police, ethnic mafias, low birth-rate, medical mafia, urbanization, disrespect for the youth, feminism, etc) just enough to outlast the West

4. Do nothing and watch the West slide into irrelevancy

5. Alternatively, look for new friends in the West and help them take power

I don’t know why certain pro-Russia bloggers are unable to admit that there are problems in Russia and why they go so hard on Westerners, disparaging their history and their way of doing things.

For example, here is what the Saker writes:

Historically, genocide has ALWAYS been the western way of war, this is especially true of the British and the US Americans.  You don’t have to believe me, simply read this book: The First Way of War: American War Making on the Frontier, 1607–1814 by John Grenier, who retired from the U.S. Air Force in 2009 after a twenty year career in which he attained the rank of lieutenant colonel and served two tours as a professor at the Air Force Academy. He currently serves as the senior professor in American military history for Norwich University’s on-line Masters of Art in Military History (MMH) program.  Really, I mean it, get his book, read it, and lose any naive illusions you might have about “western democracy” and how “liberals” wage war on others.

Well, I like the idea of pointing out that Liberalism is totalitarian and genocidal by its very nature. But that Liberal despotism is often directed at its own hapless population first and foremost.

My approach is different. I like to point out that the people in both Russia and the West face a lot of the same problems. That we are all Indo-Europeans - genetic cousins, really. Furthermore, our cultures aren’t really all that different and some of the perennial conflicts inherent to politics and religion and society are present in all of our societies. We could, at the very least, learn from one another.

What is the point in hurling SJW language and Commie rhetoric at internet people who have enough of an open-mind to consider Russia’s perspective in all of this chaos? Does it make sense to call Westerners racists (they’re not, sadly) and declare them all mortal enemies of Russia? Would it not make sense to instead explore the possibility of friendship with the sympathetic people who are open to it?

Reading the comments section of Saker’s blog, I have to conclude that most of the people reading him at this point are either old hippies or non-Whites with a rabid hatred of Western civilization. I’m not sure what the point of catering to this demographic is, but in terms of working to promote Russia’s interests, it doesn’t make any sense.

What we do ought to make sense, generally.

Unless something dramatic happens in Donbass either militarily or otherwise, I’m going to be talking about other topics going forward. The stuff that I write analyzing the situation in the West does about 5x better than my Ukraine analyses anyways. This indicates to me that interest has waned and that a new, fresh hoax is being prepared by the media right now.

Race riots? MAGA terrorism? A polar bear dying somewhere? Gorilla Flu? China? Iran?

Tell me what you think in the comments section below.