Prigozhin Wins the SMO, Lives to Fight Another Day

Round 1 is over, folks.

The last 24 hours did, in fact, end with a Wagner win. Only, so few understand what actually happened which is why there is a tangible atmosphere of disappointment hanging in the air. Let’s clear that up now. My goal here is to be as objective as possible and not to defend Wagner or Shoigu, but just to present the facts.

Let me ask you all something: what were Wagner’s objectives going into this 24 hour SMO?

Wait, wait, wait.

Actually, let us take a step back and remind ourselves what actually led to the events that transpired: first, Prigozhin may or may not have survived an assassination attempt (probable), a MoD air attack (unlikely), Wagner was declared traitors by the FSB and Putin (fact) and had the entire political elite of Russia rally against them (for shame). And now where are they? Well, they have just amicably negotiated terms with the Kremlin through the mediation of President Lukashenko.

Do you see the progress that has been made here?

Let me make my point now: Wagner is clearly in a better position now than they were going into the 24 hour SMO.

Let me also state the obvious: Prigozhin’s stated goal of deposing Shoigu and his cabal at the MoD has NOT been accomplished. And I would be very surprised if the Kremlin ever agreed to do away with Shoigu and his friends under any circumstances. Gerasimov might be let loose to pasture, but, even with him, I’m not holding my breath. Shoigu is extremely corrupt, which means that he is deeply enmeshed in the web of blackmail and kompromat that keeps the Kremlin elite afloat. Shoigu has so much dirt on top people, so much blood on his hands, and so many debts to others (and others in his debt) that, clearly, to surgically extract him from that spider web of intrigue and conspiracy would cause the whole net to unravel.

It well and truly is a “till death do us part” scenario between Shoigu, Putin and the other “grey cardinals” behind the Kremlin curtain. Someone play the Titanic song. I can feel myself starting to tear up.

Another point that no one can dispute: Prigozhin’s friends in the Kremlin lost.

But, here is the thing. The fact that they lost was clear before the SMO started! Don’t you see, if Prigozhin’s friends were on the upswing within the Kremlin, there would be no need for Prigozhin’s 24 hour SMO in the first place! When Prigozhin launched his special military operation, he and his backers had lost that round in the game of thrones already! Prigozhin was already being forced to bend the knee to Shoigu! Negotiations were scuttled and Wagner was given an ultimatum! Surrender or die! It was game over at the zero hour!

So, while Prigozhin was unable to topple the Kremlin, he clearly was able to bring them to the negotiating table again. You have to imagine just how bad the situation was for them to agree to these humiliating talks at all, mediated by Lukashenko no less, who is hated intensely in the Kremlin. Yes indeed, the Kremlin publicly shit its pants and the stink is starting to waft across the country and abroad. To those who have been paying attention, we found out that:

• the Kremlin was so belligerent, so incompetent and so beholden to petty personal interests that it almost caused a civil war in the country

• the Kremlin is so weak and can be forced to negotiated by a skeleton crew of only 4k men out of 20k and their bold mercenary captain

• the Kremlin is reactive, always, and never pro-active, which the shills reporting on this conflict have done a good job of covering up to this point

As for the latest and newest secret peace treaty, we don’t know what the terms in it are and unless Luka leaks it like he did the Kiev-Moscow “Stab-in-the-Back Concordat” we probably never will.

If I know anything about Hominus Kremlinoidicus though, they are simply biding their time to gather their forces, consolidate and move to punish Prigozhin when they are ready, who appears to be safe in Belarus at this moment. In other words, we will soon be treated to Rebellion Round II - Revenge of the Regent Ruler on pay-per-view.

Now, speaking of the regent-in-chief, Shoigu isn’t going anywhere, obviously. And we don’t need Peskov’s indignant squeaking to tell us that:

Personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation after the armed rebellion of the owner of a private army, Yevgeny Prigozhin, were not discussed during the negotiations. This was told to journalists by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov.

“Personnel changes in the Ministry of Defense during the negotiations with Prigozhin were not discussed,” Peskov told reporters. He also stressed that he was unaware of changes in the relationship between Russian President Vladimir Putin and representatives of the Defense Ministry.

To take down Shogun Shoigu would mean taking down Emperor Putin, unfortunately. And Prigozhin pulled the classic “rebelling against the Emperor in the name of the Emperor” maneuver and never uttered a word against Putin during the whole SMO. Like the Emperors of Japan, “The Putin” is largely a ceremonial, religious and sacred figure in Russia. It is his ministers and officials and boyars who mislead him, sadly. If The Putin only knew the truth, he would side with us, his patriotic subjects. Maybe if we rebel, he will see just how much we support him …

No, I am not being sarcastic.

This blog is unabashedly pro-Putin and always has been and always will be right up to the point when Putin is overthrown and a statue put up in his honor by his usurper and beyond that point as well through to the heat death of the universe. The confusion arises from the fact that you and I understand what the institute known to Russians only as “The Putin” differently. Let me explain it in terms that I think you would understand. You wouldn’t expect a rice farmer to get mad at the Imperial family for not running the country properly, now would you? See, the Emperor is too busy making sure that the sun doesn’t fall out of the sky to concern himself with such mundane matters. This is literally how the peasants perceive the situation, then and now and always. If you want to be a good populist you will learn this lesson, copy Prigozhin’s example, change your rhetoric accordingly and stop ragging on me for not turning this blog into the “Putin hate central report”.

Anyways.

In conclusion, the charges against Wagner have been dropped as of this moment.

And just think about how stupid all the Kremlin shills baying for Wagner blood on Twitter or YouTube look now that their overlords have been forced to bury the hatchet and make peace with people that literally hours ago they were calling “terrorists”. It brings a grin to my face and I am chuckling under my breath as I type this up. Fortunately for the Duran people, for Ritter and for Macgregor, they are are totally shameless. Another person in their place with a modicum of self-respect and self-awareness might be plunging a sword into their own guts by now and cutting lengthwise.

You have my promise that if I ever get things as wrong as they have in the future, I’ll ritually cut my hair bun off at the very least.

**

Strelkov and his friends are livid. Here’s a take he shared:

When the clown and clowning are taken seriously, it turns into a serious circus.

Everything is very similar to the story about the Prague rabbi and the golem.

Mutiny? Rebel? Traitor?

Who created this golem?

Who created the "PMC" tool itself without any legal basis at all? Who gave the golem local but unprecedented power? Who gave them impunity - including killing officers of the RF Armed Forces with impunity? (https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/9790)

Was it not obvious where it was going? What will it develop into? And how will it all end?

When I wrote about the #BeregAffair, that in this situation it’s not even about Bereg, even though he was my friend, the point is that THE STATE IS CHALLENGED. (https://t.me/ghost_of_novorossia/9618) And the state must answer - either the state exists, and then there is legality and consistency, or there is no state - and there are some chosen ones who are OVER the state, OVER the system and can do what they want. Absolutely and with impunity.

(…)

I wrote about the Bereg affair here. It is a dark chapter in Wagner’s history:

Me, unlike Strelkov, I’m having a grand old time.

Look, I like Strelkov as an analyst, and I think he has been vindicated too many times to count. But, there has been a conspiracy theory rattling around the Runet for awhile now alleging that he is an active FSB asset. That is, we know Girkin was an FSB man and is in the reserve now. But, it increasingly seems that he is not as retired as all that. He appears to have been being fed knowledge by someone in the know about the developing Prigozhin situation.

Strelkov warned that a coup attempt was imminent and he was right.

However, you have to wonder if Prighozhin and Strelkov aren’t representing two different factions fighting over the same patriot bloc in Russian society. I am not the only one to speculate on this, and very late to the game indeed. I would be lying though if I didn’t admit that these conspiracy theories didn’t have me stroking my chin thoughtfully and more and more aggressively for the last month or so.

But more on that another time.

Oh, here is Strelkov’s own take. He thinks Wagner won as well. Remember, Strelkov is very anti-Prigozhin so he has little incentive to lie that Wagner won when they didn’t. If anything, he is pissed off that their rebellion was a success so far. Enjoy:

Even if we assume that "That's it, we disperse" - then it remains to state that the REVOLUTION HAPPENED SUCCESSFULLY. The second (in fact) person in the state was forcibly removed from power.

He seems to think that Shoigu will be surrendered. I disagree. Also:

In general, now there was no "mutiny". There was a coup d'état. Whether it is completed or not - we will soon (maybe even tomorrow) find out.

And:

Of course, I understand - that I am a toxic product of past eras ... But in past eras there was no such vile farce. It was easier there. There they fought, hated, fought "not for fun" ... And as a rule, there were much fewer corpses from those "real" battles. Scum - they called scum, bandits and traitors - were not amnestied, but hanged, and indeed ... there were wild times ...

Lol. He mad.

Actually, it occurs to me that most of the newcomers to the blog do not even know who Strelkov is. I can tell by their other visible subscriptions, that until yesterday they were actively consuming disinformation provide to them by 5D narrative peddlers. I pass the question on to my comment section: do you know who Strelkov is, why he is important, and what his positions are?

Bleat out your honest answers below. I won’t get mad, I just want to gather some data about how badly the other bloggers and analysts have misinformed the sheep masses in their care. I am a far more benevolent shepherd, don’t you worry.

**

Forget about whether Wagner won or not, what about us?

Well, clearly, minus the loss of 15 soldiers, pilots mostly, and some equipment, this was a largely bloodless mutiny so we don’t have to feel all that sad. Also, we got to see videos of Wagnerites bullying Chechens which is always nice, and other units in the regular military refusing to fight for the Kremlin, effectively siding with Wagner, which was, as the kids like to say, “very cash money”.

Let’s count up the W’s, shall we:

• We had an action-packed 24 hour happening

• Minimal casualties

• Shoigu got slapped across the face with an iron gauntlet

• Shoigu is still hiding and cowering behind his poodle Peskov

• The war front hasn’t budged an inch yet

• Wagner lives to fight another day

• Lukashenko once again proved himself to be the only competent politician in the Slavlands

And now the L’s:

• This is the opening salvo of the civil war that seems inevitable now

• There will be a round 2 which will be bloodier

• The whole world now realizes that the Kremlin is basically retarded (kind of a W, depends on how you look at it)

• I missed my lunch and dinner because I was glued to my screen

Am I missing anything?

I will end it here for now. However, before I do, let me just cover my own ass a bit by mentioning that while all this politicking has been going on, there have been reports of fighting between hastily drawn up national guard units and Wagner fighters. Also, the Kremlin is so spiteful and agreement-incapable that this emergency peace deal might be scrapped in days or even hours.

All I’m comfortable predicting with any certainty at this point now is that this thing isn’t over yet.

**

If you want to be a miser bastard who refuses to support the blog and Rolo, you should at least restack this post on Substack’s “Notes”. It is free and gets me exposure. If you don’t help me, I will never be able to bury my 5D shill competitors. The gap between me and them is still a looming chasm at this point.

Either send me money or start restacking my posts or, preferably, do both.

Thanks.