Putin Introduces Partial Martial Law, Simultaneously Announces War Drawdown

Wait. What?

Been sick and low energy. Seeing as this is just a hobby, I have the right to take days off though.

Big news coming out of Russia today and yesterday. Martial law and a countrywide threat matrix system is coming out now.

A color scheme has been worked out:

There are four levels of restrictions for Russia’s regions:

🟥 martial law (in four annexed regions - Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions).

🟧 medium level of response (Republic of Crimea, Krasnodar Territory, Belgorod, Bryansk, Voronezh, Kursk, Rostov regions and Sevastopol)

🟨 high alert level (all regions of the Central and Southern federal districts, except for those listed in the previous paragraph)

🟩 all other regions of the Russian Federation.

It’s funny to think that the Kremlin wanted to start and end this thing quickly (the war) so as not to disrupt life in Russia. Well, allegedly that was the thinking - who knows, really. Now, instead, we’ve basically got an internal Defcon system being set up and not like the fun Death Con system that Kanye West was advocating for in the US.

It’s actually a bit like COVID, which was a hoax. Except this time it’s not a hoax. So it’s sort of the opposite of COVID in that sense, actually. With COVID, you had the government making a big deal out of nothing. Now, you have the government trying to call a full-blown war a “policing operation” and tone-policing at home anyone who says that we ought to take the war a bit more seriously while declaring martial law to then be able to mobilize more people to fight.

It seems that, as a rule, when something is actually happening, the government pretends that it isn’t. In contrast, when it isn’t happening, the government feels comfortable playing up the nonexistent threat that they will soon be able to defeat. And by government, I mean the media, mostly. The media appears to have become more powerful and influential than the government. The tail wags the dog now, at least in the West, it seems.

Now also seems like a good time to consider whether or not this conflict will ever end if it continues to be fought the way that it is being fought now.

Contrary to the lies of Western sources, I don’t think anywhere close to 60k (or is it 140k in some reports?) Russian soldiers have been killed. It’s probably closer to 15k, but don’t hold me to it, I haven’t checked in like a month. Similarly, I don’t believe that hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians have been killed, although I suspect that the losses are higher than the Russians’. Still, both sides can keep it up for a long time. Ukraine hasn’t mobilized either their reserves or their economy fully. It’s been a half-assed war so far from their side. The same can be said of Russia though, to a far greater extent. At the current pace of escalation, it will take at least another year or two before we approach anything resembling a WWII total war mobilization. So that means a lot more piece-meal escalation to look forward to in the meantime.

But this analysis contrasts with what Putin said recently about Russia getting ready to draw down its military effort sooner rather than later.

In Russia, the partial mobilization announced by the decree of the President of the Russian Federation on September 21 is coming to an end. Moscow and the Moscow Region completed partial mobilization on Monday, October 17, and the leaders of the regions said that even those who received the summons should not come to the military registration and enlistment offices. Now only volunteers are waiting in the military registration and enlistment offices.

Earlier, a number of regions announced the implementation of the plan for mobilization and the termination of the conscription of the mobilized. Recall that Russian President Vladimir Putin , following the results of the summit in Astana on October 14, said that "in about two weeks, all mobilization activities will be completed" and "nothing additional is planned ." “No proposals have been received from the Ministry of Defense in this regard, and in the foreseeable future I do not see any need ,” said the Supreme Commander. At the same time, the head of state called the problems that arose during the mobilization "stupid".

Here’s Putin checking in on the equipment problem:

Aldin 🇧🇦 @tinso_ww

This is how drafted Russian Forces are presented to Putin. This is exactly the great representation of situation in Russian Military. Presentation to Putin and reality have nothing in common.

Because regional governments are being tasked with equipping soldiers, here’s what they get:

Special Kherson Cat 🐈🇺🇦 @bayraktar_1love

Find out with what Stavropol, Russia equips its mobilized before sending them to war in Ukraine. Spoiler: Paintball masks and children's gloves (English subtitles)

I have no idea how bad the equipment situation really is and, frankly, no one does at this point. Until we see some stats, we’re just guessing and cherry-picking. We do know that the militias in Donbass had it pretty bad because ordinary Russians had to fundraise for them.

I also have no idea what to say about Putin’s aforementioned statement. On the one hand, Russia is, objectively, in an existential showdown with NATO. Occasionally, you hear a politician or even the President himself say as much.

But literally nothing on the ground reflects this reality.

If “nothing additional is planned” then we can rule out any large Russia counter-offensives. Russia will try to keep what they gained and that’s about as far as they’ll go. This means that we’ve reached the limit of Russia’s political will to challenge NATO.

Also, I suppose I ought to say something about the morality of movement restrictions and partial martial law and so on.

This response indicates the extent of the out-of-control situation terrorism/sabotage situation and how absolutely pathetic or compromised the FSB is.

Other than that, most people just go to work, home and the occasional cafe or bar for most of their lives. So, while in theory I could see people chafing at any restrictions, I can’t see it affecting people enough for them to get worked up about not being able to move around as much as they used to be able to (but didn’t). I know that if the restrictions were to actually affect my self-imposed monastic lifestyle, I’d just move to the countryside where they’re far more likely to be enforced. I just need to get a license (mine’s expired) and a car, really. I might even be able to skip the license if I’m honest. Also, houses in the sticks are so cheap that even I can afford one. Gotta get the internet set up there somehow though …

I suppose if there were internet megabyte restrictions imposed people might actually get mad.