At the time of me beginning this article, news and video has come out on Telegram of Wagner decamping from Lugansk and heading towards Belarus. Presumably they won’t get ambushed along the way or turned around and sent to Siberia or something. If they do by the time that I finish, I’m not rewriting this article either way, it’ll just be funny when I write “ignore all the above, the situation is totally FUBAR” near the end. Lol.
So, right before this, Wagner surrendered the tanks and artillery and shells given to them by the MoD.
This, followed by the transfer to Belarus strikes me as both being agreement-compliant measures and all part of the negotiated cease-fire deal arranged between Putin and Lukashenko and Prigozhin. Just to be perfectly clear though: we do not know what the compromise between Wagner and the Kremlin was. We only recently learned that, actually, Putin did meet with the “traitors and mutineers who will be fought to the last bullet” to discuss terms, mediated by President Lukashenko, of course.
Fancy that.
Now, the Rossiyan state media is gloating that Wagner actually was lying about the shell shortage because, look at the shells that they just surrendered to the MoD. This is part of the targeted smear campaign directed at Wagner and Prigozhin that we both predicted and already mentioned on this blog before. Frankly, I don’t know why anyone would accept this claim without actual, solid evidence being presented to them first.
Again: we already know that the FSB confirmed all the way back in winter that Shoigu had slashed their supplies by half. Prigozhin’s claim was that this was then slashed again, hitting an absolute nadir of 10% in the final month of the battle for Bakhmut. We don’t have to accept Prigozhin’s figures, but we do have reason to believe that the problem was there, even if we don’t know the exact percentages. Me, I have no trouble believing that Wagner had some shells left to hand over or even believing that they had more than they claimed and exaggerated the shortage to draw attention to their plight.
But ask yourselves this: if they actually were hoarding all this ammo, well, it begs the obvious question doesn’t it? Several questions emerge actually. But the first and most obvious one is: why did they let themselves get caught red-handed by the media with their illicit shell stash? Surely they could have figured out a way to not get caught with a dragon’s horde of shells when they had more than a month to either sell the shells to other units that desperately need them, destroy them or just, idk, fire them off? What, did they think that everyone would just forget the reason for their feud with Shoigu a month later?
This makes literally no sense, folks. And please at least try to control the impulse to accuse me of being CIA because I made a good point this time, OK? When something doesn’t make sense, you can be sure that someone is actively making sure to cover something up or distort reality.
In other words, I’m pretty damn sure that yes Wagner had some ammo, but that if they really were tricking Shoigu and the Russian people to justify their mutiny (which they ended without entering into battle with the Rosgvardia) they would probably hide the evidence of their treachery and thievery no?
Conclusion: this is simply the next round in the media barrage being fired at Russia’s once-heroes right now. Actually, the Rossiyan media is now making the point that I was making on this blog for many months; that Bakhmut was a senseless action that cost the lives of many men for no discernible strategic reason other than to put a feather in Prigozhin’s cap and make it seem like the Kremlin was still trying and wasn’t busy sucking its thumb in the fetal position. If there were no mutiny, the media would have remembered Bakhmut as a kind of glorious storming of Berlin and forced us all to toe the line on this narrative for many years later. In the post-mutiny timeline though, Bakhmut is being portrayed as a senseless slavic Verdun.
Which it was. It truly was indeed.
It was also considered treacherous and bad for morale to disparage the meat-grinder in Bakhmut this way not so long ago. But now that the media needs ammo of its own to shell Wagner and Prigozhin with, all of a sudden morale concerns, higher principles and stiff upper lip patriotism fly out the window, don’t they? Yes, the oh-so patriotic media that was heroically and stoically lying to the Russian people to not let their hopes down all these months has suddenly re-examined its moral codex and decided to bad-mouth the only positive action that Russia had going for her since last summer - the successful tactical operations led by Wagner.
The worm is a-turning again, folks.
Oh, by the way, I did warn and try to explain to you that what is moral or not is decided on by the people in power and that morality was, in general, a cudgel designed to terrorize the peasants with. You and I will never get to decide what is moral or not. When I do something, it is treacherous. When the state media does the same, they are virtuous. See how that works? Power differentials and identity arbitrate moral reality.
This you must understand.
Moving right along to the sacking of General Popov and the attempt on his life.
I hesitate to definitively state that this was one of Wagner’s conspirators, but his firing does seem to fit with what we would have expected to occur following the mutiny. It was only a matter of time before Shoigu found the allies of Surovikin or Prigozhin to fire from within the MoD one way or the other. Surovikin, who is officially “on vacation for his health” according to the government, has actually been getting interrogated for weeks now at a prison facility.
I expected more arrests to follow after Surovkin, but, so far, the biggest news is that General Popov has been sacked.
Let me just tell you right now: no one was complaining about Popov or demanding that he be sacked. He does not have a reputation of being a particularly nasty, notorious or corrupt general. Basically, Popov wasn’t on any patriot’s shitlist before this, with Strelkov demanding his head, although i wouldn’t be surprised to hear the media scramble to find something on him to explain his firing and portray it as a clean-up by the crusader against corruption, Shoigu himself. Or Gerasimov.
ZAnon loves Gerasimov.
If I did nothing else but show you this side-by-side picture, (Popov on the left) who would you trust more? Listen to your gut. Which one has the psycho-killer sanpaku eyes? (Gerasimov on the right)
But actually, if anything, Popov seems to be OK, generally. He decided to release an audio appeal in which he claimed that he was fired for trying to sound the alarm about problems in the military. Specifically the lack of counter-batteries, problems with artillery and AD leading to heaps of his men getting butchered by the UAF. This hasn’t been done before, and this proves that Shoigu can and will be criticized now from within the military.
Turns out that ol’ Rolo was ahead of the curve on this one, wasn’t he? Even Aussie Cossack has come round to the view that criticizing the MoD is now OK. You will recall that during our debate on Rumble, this was considered treachery and Azov-speak. And yet:
And then Aussie Cossack also posted a conspiracy theory on his Twitter that has been making the rounds on Telegram; that Gerasimov coordinated with the UAF to try and get Popov killed with a long range missile.
Are we now at the point where we are casually accusing the MoD of coordinating with Kiev (and Washington) and using them to do Shoigu’s dirty work for them?
Seems like we are.
How the worm turns, my friends. It turns for you and I.
If you were looking for further proof that dissent against Shoigu was starting to build up, well, start by familiarizing yourself with what happened during the march on Moscow and then read up on what Popov said.
Finally, with Wagner moving to Belarus as promised to fulfill the contract signed by Luka (still en route), several other 5D theories fall to pieces right in front of us.
The first: that this was a clever strategic redeployment to psyop Kiev by moving Wagner within striking distance of Kiev. We know this is total bullshit because Wagner sat in Lugansk for a month and only started moving now. So much for the element of surprise. The second: that Belarus would invade from the north, with Wagner leading the charge. How are they going to do that now that they’ve surrendered their issued heavy equipment?
And these liars will never admit to leading their audiences astray. In fact, they are already moving on to the next psyop. See, they are only concerned in providing damage control while the con is occurring and when disinfo is necessary to provide the necessary fog of war needed to mislead and manipulate people. I hope that you learned your lesson and won’t fall for their lies next time around. But, well, I’m not holding my breath. Lol.
OK, and now let me just summarize what the situation on the ground is to the best of our knowledge:
Wagner’s structure is going to be preserved and moved to Belarus after negotiations with Putin mediated by Lukashenko.
Russia has now officially lost its most combat-capable mini-army.
Prigozhin and Wagner are being publicly attacked by the Kremlin and the media they control
Prigozhin may go into politics as a limited-hangout populist replacement for Zhirinovsky.
Prigozhin and Wagner have had all charges dropped, and money returned to them
The Kremlin has torn up all contracts with Prigozhin, including his troll farm, his catering business and his PMC
Generals Surovikin and Popov are the two most visible casualties of the march so far, both are in the military and therefore fair game apparently
Shoigu was warned ahead of time by someone, possibly by American intelligence, and had already arrested Surovikin right before the march began
And I keep to my old predictions as well:
The grudge match between Wagner + the anti-Shoigu faction vs Shoigu and his buddies in the Kremlin isn’t over
The Kremlin will continue trying to turn the screws on Wagner and their allies once they manage to stabilize their precarious internal situation
We are hurtling towards a veiled Kremlin surrender to the West and warlordism and strife within Russia
Yahweh hates Russia and will make this next century very hard for the Russian people indeed
Ask not for whom the worm turns.
Verily, it turns for thee.
You must learn to ride the worm to make it through these turbulent times.
If I can do it, so can you.
Certainly seems like the walls are closing in now. MoD cooperating with NATO to take out a General who is popular and respected amongst the actual troops. Than there is Surovikin, even if he is overated he too is nonetheless popular...gotta get rid of anyone in the Military who might be able to make trouble by leveraging popularity and authority amongst men who will fight. Of course Prigozhin isn't trustworthy but this all certainly does lend credence to claims that he may have been targeted for assassination. The Kremlin не бросают своих but he crossed the line when he started trying to throw Shoigu under bus and cultivate a real following amongst people the Kremlin hates and fears. I don't think this is just a post not mutiny purge, I think the Kremlin is cleaning house pre surrender.
If surrender is around the corner Wagner wanting to get hell out of Russia and away from MoD makes perfect sense doesn't it? That is guys like Prigozhin and Utkin would know damn well that MoD would start purging to prep the surrender, wouldn't guys like Prigozhin and the Wagner leadership want guarantees? They know what happened to the original Russian spring heros, being a Russian hero is very, very dangerous.
I've seen lots of well meaning Z fanboys gloating that NATO didn't give Zelensky any guarantees. Well Ukraine has about served it's purpose now. Black Rock and Monsanto own the country and there's more future perspective for money laundering, organ harvesting, drug running, etc etc if it's just turned into an even worse version of Albania than some pseudo respectable official EU/NATO country. The official decline from NATO could very well signal that Ukraines services won't be needed to the same extent in the foreseeable future.
Than there is Ergodan dick slapping Moscow. Like maybe he knows as well that surrender is around the corner and which way the wind is blowing.
It's all so cynical and sickening. The Russian troops in the trenches have genuinely done outstanding work the past month. They legit have wrecked the best NATO proxi Army ever. But the Kremlin will not even consider for a second how to capitalize on that and work towards winning a little. No they just want to try and buy some decent surrender terms they can spin to the peasants. Looking back now it's obvious that the Russian troops never had a chance in this not war. With this kind of leadership victory isn't possible because the leadership isn't looking for it anyway. They never were actually.
It was literally all about bailing out Medvedchuck who is no better really than Zelensky or Poroshenko and putting him in charge of Ukraine and surrendering Crimea and Donbass. That's it. There was never a chance for anything good to come from the SMO. Feels bad.
Interesting note that Shoigu may have assisted the Ukes in trying to target Popov. It makes me consider whether some of the several Russian generals killed earlier in the not war were gotten out of the way in this manner. It would be interesting to see how many of them were pro or anti-Shoigu faction, and whether a pattern emerges