Putin Will Save Iran Any Day Now!

Israel has walked into the Kremlin's clever trap.

I saw some videos of dust clouds and debris littering the ground in Tel Aviv on Xitter over the last couple of days. Usually, this has been posted by NAFO + Israel proponents who always end their posts demanding more military aid from the US in the form of missile defenses. And also by TehranAnon, who is trying to make a big PR show of fighting back against Israel. Of course, a high percentage of these photos are clearly AI fakes or pictures from, ironically enough, Gaza or Syria, but there do appear to be some videos of destruction from Israel that are real. Like, at the time of my writing, Tehran apparently decided to bomb some Israeli hospital for … reasons? Probably to appear as sinister and evil as Western media depicts them as being, if I had to guess and to hand their “enemies” yet another casus belli.

Now, are there any dead Israelis to show for it all?

Sure. There were already 13 dead Israelis after the very first wave of missiles and there might even be a 100 (one hundred) dead Jews by the time that the dust clears from the cumulative wave of Iranian missile strikes. The usual suspects exaggerate it to thousands or even tens of thousands in some cases. Grok says 24-28 since end of 17th.

• Official Reports: The most consistent figures from Israeli authorities and emergency services, such as Magen David Adom, indicate 24–28 deaths as of June 17, 2025.

These numbers remind me of an earlier campaign during which Israel was losing 1 (one) soldier a day during the Gaza operation. I don’t think they’re losing any more troops at this point, but they may have lost a grand total of 400? troops during the entire Gaza cleansing campaign? Here is what Grok says:

The number of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) personnel killed during the Gaza operation, which began on October 7, 2023, varies slightly across sources, but the most consistent figures from recent data indicate the following:

• As of June 9, 2025, the IDF reported a total of 891 soldiers killed since the start of the conflict, with 558 of those deaths occurring in 2024. Of these, 435 were killed on October 7 and in the two weeks before the ground operation began on October 27, 2023, and 390 soldiers were killed during the ground operations in Gaza.

• Another source from June 2025 notes that the toll in the ground offensive against Hamas in Gaza and in military operations along the border with the Strip reached 429 soldiers, including two police officers and three Defense Ministry civilian contractors.

• Earlier reports, such as one from April 2024, indicated 260 IDF soldiers had been killed, mainly during ground operations, with specific incidents like the death of eight troops on June 15, 2024, during an operation in Rafah.

• By October 2023, the Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported 866 IDF casualties, with 424 killed since the ground operations began.

So, yes, there were some deaths.

But these numbers aren’t even statistically significant.

Consider: America loses as many men each year due to non-combat deaths, just as a point of comparison. Here:

General Trends (1980–2022): According to a 2024 USAFacts report, from 1980 to 2022, 28,995 active-duty military personnel died due to accidents, accounting for a significant portion of the 50,789 non-combat deaths (83.6% of which were due to accidents, illness, and suicides). This averages to roughly 690 accidental deaths per year across all branches over this 42-year period. However, the annual rate has declined significantly, dropping 83% since 1980 due to improved safety measures.

You can fist-pump and crow victory all you want whenever you want, but by doing that you’ve essentially rendered language meaningless because you are misusing terms.

If you are impressed by big explosions and fireworks popping off in the air, and most people are, then yeah, Iran is for sure winning this war. We didn’t define terms before I began writing on the topic and that’s my fault for assuming that we all had the same understanding of what winning and, well, even the word “war” meant.

So, if by “winning", the Resistance team meant racking up moral victories, producing videos of Jews crying, several dozens of Israelis dead + maybe a couple of hundred total when all is said and done, hundreds of millions of extra Western tax dollars sent over to Israel, and hundreds of thousands of Iranians dead in the near future, then yes, “victory” is assured in this “war”.

In contrast, I wouldn’t even call this a war because of how one-sided it has been so far.

I’d just call it a massacre.

And why am I so sure that Iran will be destroyed? Simple:

They should have made nukes or really big bombs at least and then put some military hardliners in power if they wanted their state to survive. But they didn’t and so they won’t. Simple as.

Also: the “anti-West” Mullahs that the West put into power in Iran theologically discovered that Muhammed banned big bombs in the Koran and so they refused to develop big bombs or their military. It seems that their prophet also wanted them to be annihilated by Israel. Amusingly, as bad as Christianity is, I’ve never heard such drivel coming out of the mouthes of Christian and post-Christian countries’ mouths, thank Yahweh. Turns out Shi’itism is far more suicidal and damaging to the people who adopt it than even Christianity is. I had always thought that Europe got the shortest end of the stick of the Abrahamic religions, but that was before I studied Iran’s theocracy and had to change my mind accordingly

Everywhere in the world, Shi’ites have been almost completely demilitarized in the span of two years.

Hezbollah? Decimated and pushed out of their strongholds.

The Alawites? Who do you think was on all those videos getting massacred by the new government?

And now Iran is going up in flames as a prelude to a regime change SMO and then a civil war.

But that’s OK, because Iran’s propaganda has declared a moral victory over Israel. After years of saber-rattling at Israel with their propaganda, they are not commending themselves for their restraint and their taking the high road in their response. No, seriously.

It is times like this that I sincerely thank Yahweh that he made my people Christian Orthodox instead of Muslims. Shi’itism is clearly the weakest link in the Abrahamic chain and the most Noahide compliant to boot. Will it even exist as a force in the world by 2030? Probably not. Their god has abandoned them.

Anyway.

On to Russia.

The last hope for the Axis of Resistance is that Putin will ride in on a pale horse and save Iran. Well, there’s also the types who think China will do that. But people pushing “Sino-triumphalism” are so deluded and ridiculous that I don’t even feel like dunking on them. I mean, OK, fine, you want me to make a prediction about China? They’ll sell some drones to Iran, maybe and buy heavily discounted energy from Iran which will allow the state to limp along for some time. That’s what they did with Russia, so I’m extrapolating.

And that’s about it.

Take note of all the “experts” who claim that China has deployed secret battalions or whatever to defend Iran. They were saying the same about Donbass a few years ago. Recognize these patterns of cope and lying, please.

Now let’s examine what Russia has done for Iran since the bombing began. Has NATO awakened the bear?

🐻 Kremlin Hopes That Tehran Not Close the Straights of Hormuz

Here:

ST. PETERSBURG, June 19. /TASS/. Russia hopes that Iran doesn’t follow through on its threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, because that would lead to a surge in oil prices, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in an interview with Naila Asker-zade on the Vesti program on the Rossiya-1 TV channel.

"I hope that such force majeure will not happen, but nothing can be ruled out. This uncertainty naturally affects the market, and the market will certainly react somehow," he said.

Novak recalled that of all the world's oil exports, about one-third comes from the Persian Gulf countries through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Therefore, for the market, of course, this [the closure of the Strait] would be a shock. We hope that this will not happen. After all, it would always be reasonable for the market and for future investments for price volatility to be as low as possible," he added.

*ROAR*

Jokes aside, the equivalent to blowing the bridges on the Dniepr for Tehran would be hitting the water desalination plants, the Dimona facility, closing the straights, ending the oil pipeline partnerships with Israel and actually destroying some of Israel’s operating military bases.

But if they do that, the US and Israel and Moscow would get angry at them.

And if that happens, the current government will have nowhere to flee to when they are oustered. Moscow is not-so-subtly letting Tehran now that their retirement apartments in Moscow are at risk should they do anything too damaging to global trade interests there.

🐻 Putin Guarantees Safety for Russian Employees Working in Iran Nuclear Plants

Here:

ST. PETERSBURG, June 19. /TASS/. Israel has promised to ensure security of Russian specialists working at the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant in Iran, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

"Yesterday, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin said there is an understanding with Israel that our specialists working at the Bushehr [plant] will not be in danger or face the threat of an attack," Peskov told RBC in an interview on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF).

He answered in the affirmative to a question of whether Israel had vowed to ensure security of Russian specialists.

*ROAR*

There are many secret understandings between Russia and Israel. Most of Russia’s oligarchs have Israeli citizenships. The KGB was Jewish post-Andropov and many Chekhists and NKVDians moved to Israel. Putin professes Christian faith in Israel and studied Torah with the rabbis in his youth, according to his own biography. He delivered many speeches on the Holocaust and Abrahamic values in Jerusalem and Tel-Aviv. Very Jesus-like of him, come to think of it.

Point being: Iran, in contrast, enjoys no such close ties with the president and the ruling elite.

And that might explain why the Kremlin isn’t saving its ally Iran with deployments of wunderweapons, redeploying divisions via the Caspian or sending inter-ballistic missiles at Israel or whatever. Iran will NOT get any support from Russia. Maybe I will have to eat those words when Putin gives them some tax credit or sends over a team of doctors to help burn victims or something. But, other than meaningless and symbolic or financial gestures, there will be no help, no.

In conclusion: Russia has done NOTHING so far for Iran.

And this Kremlin attitude towards Iran is nothing new, by the way.

As recently as 2010, Putin was sanctioning Iran on behalf of Israel. At the time, Obama was in office and had let up some pressure on Tehran and so Tel Aviv asked the Kremlin to step it up. Here:

🗣Russian President imposed sanctions against Iran

~ September 23, 2010

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev signed a decree imposing sanctions against Iran. The following was prohibited:

– deliveries of S-300 anti-aircraft systems

– sale of tanks, artillery systems, military aircraft, helicopters, ships and spare parts to Iran

– technical and advisory assistance on previously delivered weapons

– entry into Russia of Iranian citizens associated with the nuclear program

– participation of Iranian individuals and legal entities in Russian nuclear projects

– creation and opening of Iranian banks and their branches in the territory of the Russian Federation

– inspection of Iranian ships and all types of goods arriving in Russia was tightened

The reason for the introduction of sanctions was the UN Security Council Resolution aimed at limiting support for Iran's nuclear program. Russia's decision to suspend S-300 deliveries was positively received by the United States and Israel.

Hell, back in the USSR days, the Soviet military was prepared to invade and take Tehran to support a military coup by Moscow sympathizers. They were redirected at Afghanistan by Andropov instead, who had cut a deal with the CIA to let them install their Mullah puppets into Tehran. Afghanistan then began producing copious amounts of drugs that flowed into the USSR and Iran. I covered that all in my amazing, ground-breaking article titled: “Why in the World Did the USSR Invade Afghanistan?”. Give it a read, it is worth your time.

If you fell for the propaganda that Tehran and Moscow are allies, well, treat this as a lesson for the next war, which will probably be against China in some capacity, and in which neither Russia nor Iran will help China either.

**

Some of you have tried to get me to branch out and have my work read on other websites. This doesn’t seem likely to occur.

My writing focuses on the following criteria: being right and being fun (for me).

Other websites focus on different criteria like: MLA format citations, expert credentials, “insider” sources/connections, and “being serious”.

I naively assumed that my track record of proven success with predicting future outcomes would be enough to retroactively convince people to entertain the Russian conspiracy theories that I translate and share. But I freely admit that I was wrong to assume that something as banal and out of fashion as BEING RIGHT was important for the career prospects of a geopolitical/war analyst.

I am referring to a comment exchange between a Stalker and Ron Unz of Unz.com in which they discussed the merits of continuing to share my articles in the wake of the successful Ukrainian and Israeli surprise attacks that caught Russia and Iran flat-footed.

Ron Unz showed up in an article of mine to write:

Can anyone take seriously the work of a geopolitical analyst who calls himself “Rurik Skywalker”?

To which a Stalker named Eugene Kusmiak replied:

I can take seriously the work of a geopolitical analyst called “Rurik Skywalker” if he has been predicting for 3 years that Russia is caught in a quagmire and can’t move its line of contact forward to even finish conquering the Russia-friendly oblast of Donetsk, which it still hasn’t even completed. Do you take seriously the work of geopolitical analysts named “Pepe Escobar” and “Douglas Macgregor” who have been predicting for 3 years that “Once winter comes and the ground freezes, Russian tanks will sweep through the Ukrainian lines all the way to the Dnieper River”? One of them was right, and the others were wrong, and that is all that matters to me.

Of course, this is your website, and you should publish anyone you think it worth reading.

This did not convinced the Learned Elder Unz:

The problem is that it’s very easy to be wrong about a complex issue, sometimes wrong based upon plausible reasoning and sometimes having predictions that turn out to be correct but for entirely wrong reasons. Lots of people who have won big on stock investments have done so based upon very poor reasoning.

For example, when Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022 I think almost everyone on both the pro-Russian and anti-Russian sides expected they would sweep to an easy military victory, seizing Kiev and overthrowing the existing government. The anti-Russian side then planned to turn Ukraine into an Afghanistan, with long-term effective guerilla resistance. I never followed the operational fighting in any detail, but that’s what I remember.

The Russian invasion force wasn’t very large, less than 100,000 men I think, and on paper Ukraine had a military that was many times larger. But I think that most people expected that the Ukrainian army would simply disintegrate, just like the huge Syrian army recently disintegrated and allowed a few thousand jihadis to unexpectedly seize the country.

Instead, the Ukrainians fought surprisingly well, and stopped the Russian advance. Also, early on the Russian show of force persuaded Zelensky to negotiate the peace agreement that Russia wanted, which was torpedoed at the last moment by Boris Johnson’s intervention.

Now it’s obviously very difficult to go on the offensive against a determined, heavily entrenched enemy army that greatly outnumbers you, so the Russians got bogged down. The advanced NATO weaponry certainly helped the Ukrainians along with the hundreds of billions of dollars contributed by America and the rest of NATO. Plus the Ukrainians pioneered new drone technology that completely changed the nature of the battlefield, largely nullifying the large Russian superiority in tanks and traditional weapons.

All of those are reasonable factors explaining why so many military analysts were so mistaken, and I think some of them may have invested so much in their early predictions that they were embarrassed to admit they’d been wrong, and simply repeated the same predictions of a sweeping Russian victory over and over again, hoping that they might eventually come true and bail them out. For example, Anglin recently wrote an excellent column criticizing so many of the alt-media people for making all sorts of predictions that were false and never reassessing their assumptions, but always doubling-down.

https://www.unz.com/aanglin/global-war-is-a-serious-matter-and-it-should-be-discussed-with-some-gravity/

But from what I remember, that fellow Rolo tended to focus on entirely different things, making all sorts of wild claims that Putin was a traitor, that his regime was totally corrupt, those sort of things, or at least that’s what I vaguely remember of his pieces that I republished during 2022 and 2023, and he seems to still be saying the same things today, most of which seems ridiculous. He also writes in such a juvenile fashion I find it very difficult to take him seriously.

Let’s use the Vietnam War as an analogy. All the public experts were sure that America would win in Vietnam—how could we possibly lose given that America was so powerful? But instead we did lose, and left the country in total humiliation, and many, many books were written explaining why we lost.

However, from what I remember, the Birchers were strongly opposed to our involvement in Vietnam and they also claimed that our own government was controlled by the Communists. I think they sometimes argued that our involvement in Vietnam was part of a deliberate Communist plot to destroy American power and get Americans killed, so they probably predicted that we would lose. But those predictions would have been right for the wrong reasons.

[NOTE: The Birchers were correct and were correct for the right reasons. LOL.]

So just because the Birchers were correct about the Vietnam War being a disaster didn’t mean they were correct that JFK and LBJ and Nixon were all under Communist control.

[NOTE: LBJ literally conspired to kill JFK with the Mossad. Nixon was run by the grey cardinal Kissinger, who aligned China against the USSR.]

Anyway, I’ve never really been much interested in the operational details of the Ukraine war, and I also never predicted a quick Russian victory, though I certainly did vaguely assumed that would probably happen because all the experts were saying that.

Since Rolo provides a very different perspective, I don’t have any problem running his columns once a week or so. But I do think that people would take him much more seriously if he didn’t write in such a juvenile fashion and make all sorts of dramatic claims based upon what some random rightwing blogger somewhere was saying.

Another commenter notes:

Seems like the “juvenile” blogger is making much better predictions of reality than the “non juvenile” bloggers.
I would also use some kind of silly nickname of I was a Russian revealing the truth about putin regime, because I prefer to be alive, not dead or imprisoned.

Indeed. Jester’s privilege and all that.

But let’s leave it there.

There’s simply no getting through to some kinds of people.