Russia is Holding the Line

Cautiously optimistic

The coverage of this war has been so dishonest from both sides that it makes the previous COVID coverage look like a reasonable Socratic dialogue in comparison. Most people have given up on trying to make any sense of this Not-War and simply hope that their chosen team will win eventually. But we here at Slavland Chronicles still try our best.

Storm groups are assaulting the Russian line. So far though, there has been no breakthrough. There may be several reasons for this:

First, the UAF has decided to take a page out of the Russian army’s playbook from the suicidal Ugledar operation and has decided to push across mine-laden fields with their armor.

Second, General Zaluzhny is nowhere to be seen. This may be because he is injured or because he was slated to be replaced a long time ago. The most convincing hypothesis that I was operating under was that Zaluzhny was calling for more time to prepare and arm up before attacking while Washington via Zelensky was pressuring the UAF to attack sooner. He was generally considered to be competent, far more than his Russian counterparts.

Third, the dam breaking and the subsequent flooding threw both the UAF and the Russians for a loop. Strelkov now believes it was an act of God. A few analysts who toe the Kremlin line more closely have also come out and agreed with this position. It’s either that or Washington did it somehow because the Ukrainian advance suffered for it, and Russia did indeed lose forward defensive positions and will probably lose water in Crimea eventually. Using the criteria of “who benefits” my analysis remains unchanged and I don’t care how many times you accuse me of being CIA for saying it. Also, the dam had been hit before and was already seriously damaged.

Fourth, we are still in the early days. The previous two assaults that led to Russian retreats also started with initial probing columns being blown to bits by Russian artillery and a lot of fist-pumping from the Z-side. Ukraine, allegedly, has 40 brigades this time. We have seen a fraction of this on th efield so far.

Fifth, the Leopards and other NATO wunder-weapons have proven to be average, as expected. Furthermore, Ukraine’s AA system appear to be reaching its limit. There aren’t enough Patriot systems in Ukraine as of yet and no F-16s. Russian missiles seem to get through more often nowadays. Also, Russia has started using drone waves effectively. Too little and too late, but still.

All in all, I am cautiously optimistic.

Usually though, armies go on the offensive when they have more men and are stronger than the defender. You don’t have to cross-reference Sun Tzu to understand why that is almost always the case. Also, Russia has three lines of defenses in most points along the line. It is very good news that Ukraine has failed to pierce even the first line anywhere. However, while static defense is fine for a while and the defender inflicts more damage on the attacker in the initial stages, the threat of getting surrounded should any point in the lines be pierced is very real and that is exactly what the UAF is aiming for.

Probe, push, break through, envelope - that is the UAF battle plan.

And yes, they are willing to incur heavy casualties to achieve their strategic objectives. What gives the Z-side optimism is that the initial attacks appear to have suffered from bad intel and are attacking fortified points head-on. It is possible that they were working under the assumption that the Russians would quickly fold. Perhaps bribes were delivered and phone calls made to Russian officials from their esteemed partners in Washington and so Kiev got too cocky. Who knows. I feel stupid talking about this offensive now when so little is known. But I also feel pressure to cover it because that is all anyone is talking about. What kind of an info-monger would I be if I stayed quiet and told the truth, that the dust hasn’t even begun to settle?

The executive summary is this: the Russian lines have held. The Ukrainians are now pushing hardest south to Melitople as per plan. And, so far, they have only suffered setbacks.

Either way, I believe that this will be the final large-scale action of this Not-War. I don’t expect much else to occur on this scale on the battlefield for the foreseeable future. Russia has a new army in the works, allegedly, of about 60k men being prepared in the rear, but this is not enough to take Kiev or do much at all except take a town or two in the near future. Ukraine on the other hand, has not show the same hesitation as Russia has with raising more men. The fact that they are still attacking, and with increased intensity means that they have prepared a large force and think that they still have a chance, despite the setbacks. They had the option of calling it quits when the initial probes failed and the dam was destroyed, but chose to press on regardless.

That’s a pretty bullish sentiment from Kiev’s side.

Now, one theory that I am willing to consider that has some merit to it, is that the UAF launched this attack despite not being ready. That it was Washington who put pressure on them to attack. Therefore, all the UAF has to do is make a good show of trying before backing off and going back to doing nothing while sponging up ever more money, equipment and adoration from their Western allies. I would be convinced by this theory if we end up seeing Ukraine hold back the bulk of its equipment and reserves. If not, then it is a nice little theory, but unproven in the field. The first part though, about Washington pressuring Kiev to attack, well, that just goes without saying really. Washington has been doing everything it can to escalate the conflict while also drip-feeding Ukraine supplies with the goal of prolonging the blood-letting.