Strelkov Provides Reassuring Analysis, Declares There Won't Be A Russian Surrender

No one will even allow Russia to surrender.

You thought things were bad? Seems like you fell for my disinfo campaign! Ha! Few know this, but since my cover was blown in the comments section of a recent post, I thought I’d fess up and tell you that, actually, I was just trying to lure the NATO-NAZIS into a trap by posting that interview where Wagner’s chief warned about the bad state of the situation on the Russian side. All part of the plan. Checkmate, NATO-SATAN!!!

Luckily, Strelkov is here to set things straight. What surrender? Are you crazy? Russia won’t ever surrender … because they won’t be allowed to surrender.

Strelkov:

Literally the other day we again had to discuss the "hot topic" - the possibility of a "second Khasavyurt". I emphasize - it is "Khasavyurt" (that is, the Kremlin's poorly disguised capitulation to an external enemy, similar to the capitulation of the Yeltsin mafia to Chechen fighters in 1996).

First, I will give the arguments "for" such a possibility, even though I do not agree with such an assessment.

- The Kremlin IS NOT GOING TO WIN THIS WAR AND DOESN'T EVEN WANT TO. (Undoubtedly! So it is! - Neither ideologically nor practically are the Kremlin's amazing people preparing for a long victorious war, and are instead clearly counting on its relatively quick end);

- Russian troops, with the exception of the bloody "meat-grinder assaults" in the Donbass, are everywhere on the defensive, they are not preparing for an offensive. (And this is true, but it follows from paragraph 1);

- The abandonment of Kherson and the absence of attempts to liberate the city of Zaporozhye (the capitals of the corresponding subjects of the Russian Federation), as well as the available information about the preparations for the evacuation of civilian institutions in the rear of our troops in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions (this is true) - indicate that the Kremlin is ready to surrender at any moment to their esteemed partners in Kiev;

Remember when I said that I was waiting for news on evacuation of civilians before I made my final decision on whether or not Ukraine would be successful in its attack? I said that there was a good chance that if news came out of an evac then I would definitively say that Russia would lose Zaporozhye. Well, if this confirmed (for now we have to take Strelkov at his word because I don’t see it in the media) then that is the proof I was looking for.

Also, I said that if the initial breakthrough is successful, and if the Russian army assesses that there is not enough men to prevent an encirclement following said breakthrough, they would then pull back.

There is no point in fighting outnumbered. Pulling out is the smart decision to make in such circumstances.

However, the problem is that such a situation was able to develop in the first place. Yes, a retreat is better than no retreat if the troops are outnumbered and about to enveloped. But, it seems clear that strategic decisions were made to create a situation where retreat is the only viable option.

- China takes an "evasive" position in the conflict, it is not necessary to expect a full-fledged "lend-lease" from it, and it will not be possible for the Russian Federation to fight on its own even with only one "Ukraine", which has all of NATO as a rear, for a very short time, since it spends much more weapons, ammunition and military materials than it produces (by the way, "strictly the opposite with 1941", when - despite the huge losses and evacuation of industry, the production of military materials rapidly increased the further - the more, by 1943, having "covered" all losses and allowing far to bypass the enemy in the production of the main types of weapons). Consequently, the Russian Federation will have to agree to a "negotiation" of such a kind that it will actually be a poorly disguised capitulation.

Stay tuned for a deep dive on this fake Russia-China alliance.

- The "elites" of the Russian Federation are fragmented, a significant part of Putin's entourage - was, is and will be against this "adventure" and "for a return to the pre-war status quo" as close as possible (even with losses in status, sovereignty, etc. ). And even a partial change of "elites" will not happen - the time for this has already been lost (not to mention the fact that no one was even going to do this). As the army and rear weaken (which is facilitated by "quiet sabotage" by many agents of our oligarchy in power, in the military industry, and in the armed forces), their pressure on the president will only increase. (And this is also true).

The general conclusion is that "Khasavyurt is inevitable" and will be implemented by the autumn of this year or in the spring (after the elections) of the next year.

All of the above is in place. To each individual point it is stupid to object. My only, in fact, argument is this: "OUR ESTEEMED WESTERN PARTNERS WILL NOT AGREE TO PARTIAL SURRENER OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION." They "heavily" invested in this war, they have serious economic and financial difficulties, the threat of default (USA) - and they will not allow "to release our fools to lick their wounds." "Only hardcore! Only total destruction with a complete robbery!"

OK, the Russian-English translation is a bit choppy, so let me just explain what he is saying in case I lost anybody. Basically, he outlines the whole “the nomenklatura is planning to surrender gracefully while trying to save face scenario” and concludes that it is too optimistic by far. Yes, this is the ideal scenario for the Kremlin, but the West won’t allow the Kremlin to surrender partially. They will go for the throat. So, the above logic and scenario is too rosy and optimistic - it will actually be far worse. He continues:

They need the complete depletion of the Russian Federation, followed not by a "contractual surrender", but with a complete defeat and further reformatting. "Remove this country from the map" - this is the task that entices them with its grandeur (including the grandeur of profits, the likes of which the Anglo-Saxons have not seen since the defeat and disposal of the Mughal Empire in India). The weakness of the military machine of the Russian Federation, the rottenness, corruption, cowardice and total incompetence of its VIP bureaucracy - only tempt the West "not to dwell on particulars, but to take everything!"

The more pliant the Russian authorities are, the more accommodating, the more their appetites grow.

If the United States and its allies need to "burn at the stake of war", in addition to "Ukraine", also Poland and Romania - no problem. If it will be necessary - they will throw them into the meat grinder next. Not enough Poles and Romanians with the Balts together - so they will add the Germans. Etc.

"The dear Western colleagues" of our leaders intend to end this war by getting to Moscow. And nothing else. One dead bastard - that Judas “Gorby” [Gorbachev] - has already shown them how easily it is possible to defeat and bring Russia to its knees when vile nonentities are at the head of it. And they not only "can", but also intend to "repeat" [the collapse of the USSR].

There WILL BE NO "Khasavyurt-2.0" [partial surrender]. If we do not win this war, we will be destroyed as a state and as a country, plunging into several regional wars at once, losing half (or more) of the territories and population, losing (forever or for a long time) any political subjectivity.

And the fact that the Kremlin has not yet understood this (and does not want to understand it in principle) is not surprising. These people didn’t “shine with intelligence” before (and what intelligence they did have was used on personal and corporate enrichment at the expense of the country and the satisfaction of personal hedonism), and now they are also very old … [the last two sentences are nigh-untranslatable but he says that these people will never allow for any reforms to take place, basically].

You know, last week, I talked about the strange behavior of Russian state media. Here is what I said:

Another data point worth mentioning is just how strangely the Russian state media has been treating the announced Ukrainian offensive. I have been waiting for some categorical denials or some sort of assurance that all is well and prepared ahead of time, but I have not seen anything of the kind. There have been, of course, lots of vague, non-specific, “all will be well” type analyses. But these have almost all studiously avoided mentioning the particulars of the Ukrainian offensive or Russia’s prepared defense.

I don’t know what to make of it all.

You would expect Russian media to be full of people pretending that nothing is going to happen and that all is well. But, for the most part, from checking in on Channel 1 periodically, all I see is Russian pundits watching news and reports coming out from the West and Ukraine and nervously chewing their lips. It is almost as if they are afraid to ask the question out loud: are we ready for this offensive? So, all they do is just share the news coming out of the enemy camp and and laugh nervously. I’m sitting here wondering why they can’t find a Russian Gonzago Lira or Big Serge to start coming on air and explaining to the Russian public that the situation is under control and all part of a larger Russian plan to checkmate Satan. You’d think they’d at least do that. Occasionally, they do trot out Macgregor and Ritter, which is basically akin to falling for your own psy-op. Mostly, they just share the news and lob accusations at the West for being Nazi-Fascists, reaffirm their own moral goodness, gnash their teeth that the West is arming Ukraine and then nervously titter about the coming offensive.

I … I’m perplexed.

It is almost as if Russian media is slightly more honest than Western media in the sense that no one feels comfortable going on air and stating that all will be well and that victory will be in Russia’s grasp within two weeks because of how bad it might look a few weeks from now. It is … it is really something.

…

This weird, shuffling dance of Russia’s top pundits where they seem deathly afraid of asking whether or not Russia is ready for the Ukrainian assault and just sort of chew their lips nervously as they read the reports coming out of the West could mean many things. Personally, I think it might mean that they’re starting to understand where the wind is blowing and that if they know what is good for them, they will be as vague as possible in the coming weeks so as not to get on anyone’s bad side.

And here is the confirmation of my observations. Apparently, the Russian state media is being told to toe a careful line:

According to the publication [Moscow Times], the state media should not reassure the Russians by talking about the unpreparedness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Presenters and journalists are tasked with “not lowering expectations” about the announced counter-offensive, as well as to emphasize that NATO countries supply Ukraine with weapons and support it in every possible way.

Sources in the presidential administration say that with this approach, it will be easier for the Russians to accept a possible defeat. If Ukraine wins back some territories, the Russians will be convinced that it was possible to do this thanks to the “great efforts of the West.”

YES. That is the approved Kremlin narrative that the state media repeats! That allowances have to be made for the MoD because they are actually fighting the NATO army in Ukraine (Kiev’s army was already destroyed twice).

However, the Kremlin is sure that the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be "modest". In this regard, the state media should emphasize the difference between the money spent and the final result, noting that the Russian army "handled it."

If the counteroffensive fails, citizens will be told that “the army skillfully repelled an attack that was superior in power,” and the price of this victory will increase dramatically, the sources add. The scenario of the total defeat of Russia, when it loses everything or much, is not considered in the training manual.

Ukraine is "at the finish line" before the start of the counteroffensive, Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said the day before. According to him, the final preparations are being completed, after which the General Staff, the commander-in-chief and his team will understand “how, where and when” they will attack.

In other words, Russia is preparing to lose gracefully by saying that they are up against the NATO-Nazi Reich and that such results are to be expected when facing down such a colossus.

So now we have several data points to inform our speculations.

• Prigozhin, who is running the Bakhmut front is downright apocalyptic in his warnings

• Strelkov, who has been right more times than I can count, has figured out a way to be even more pessimistic than Prigozhin albeit in a creative way

• Strelkov says evacuation is underway, just as occurred in Kherson

• The state media appears to be tasked with softening the blow

All we lack is accurate information on how many troops Russia has in the region. There is no info from Russian sources and Western sources say 42k in Zaporozhye, which is bad news indeed if true, because this won’t be enough. Also, there is reason to believe that a lot of Russia’s strength only exists on paper, with officers forced to lie to higher-ups to portray undermanned and depleted divisions as being full strength. Funny enough, this is what Z-bloggers accuse Kiev of doing - of assembling a skeleton army. We will see who lied more, I suppose.

Again, you people do not appreciate me. What I wrote was downright prescient. It must be all the meditation I’ve been doing. By the way, you should see the comments I get on the blogs that reposted my word-for-word transcription of Prigozhin’s interview. Here is the latest from the “Reader Mailbag”:

WHAT MONEY!!!???

I can’t even get $1000 dollars a month in subs to break even. You retard. You absolute troglodyte, mouth-breathing ape of a man. Fuck you. If I wanted to make money, I would NEVER try to present the opinions of patriotic Russians within Russia sounding the alarm. You SWINE don’t want to hear it! I LOSE subs when I post bad news. I have been BLACKLISTED by almost the entirety of the English-speaking Russia analyst community. You literally live in bizarro world. Who is your dealer because damn, son, I want to try some of what you are smoking because that shit is clearly potent AF.

The peasant scum masses think that telling the truth about the mismanagement of the war makes me anti-Russian. What can I even say to that? That is just how they think. They simply do indeed think this way. Criticism of the team means playing for the enemy team. And you wonder why we are in the situation that we are in? No criticism allowed otherwise you are the enemy! All is well! Trust the plan! Patriots in control! Praise Yahweh!

aaaand the dismount.

Words fail me.

I now side with the WEF and wish them good luck with their plan to castrate and then exterminate a significant swath of the peasant population. Good riddance.