If we zoom out, I can tell you in broad strokes how the Iran situation is going to play out. It will be invaded. From the south, it will be the Americans seizing the coastline or strategic points along the straits. From the north, it will be an Azeri or/and Kurdish invasion supported by Israel (and Russia too, to a certain extent). When this will happen though, well, that’s a matter of Washington and Tel-Aviv getting their ducks into line.
Meanwhile, the straits are already open, actually.
This is easily accessible information.
Nobody seems to know this or factor it into their analyses, for some reason though.
But, actually, the Iranian government already caved months ago and now lets 50% of the volume flow through the straits.
If the plan was to wield energy as a deterrent or a weapon, then, like Moscow, Tehran has already committed to not doing so.
Prices fell immediately after commercial traffic resumed.
The energy must flow so that the ruling kakistocrats of both Russia and Iran can continue making money and giving “10% to the big guys”, who in turn tithe that money to the Globalists in the West.
The Memorandum of Understanding was designed to disarm Iran, because it re-established commercial traffic through the straits, among other stipulations. Now, Iran must continue to provide energy while also getting bombed and invaded. The exact same arrangement appears to be in effect with Russia. The Russian energy flows to NATO on the cheap while NATO uses that energy to create weapons and wage war with Ukrainian lives against Russia.
All the while, alternative pipelines through Saudi Arabia are being built to bypass the straits entirely. By the end of 2027, at least one of the major bypasses will be complete. They will not be targeted by the Iranian government, because … well, call it a hunch, I guess.
Now, things improved for Iran when their government was wiped out, that seems to be true. But this new government is already waving the white flag, again. Here:
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said it would be “better” if the war ends now, while Tehran is in a position of strength, the country’s state-run media reported on Friday.
Pezeshkian said it would be “better to end the war today while we are in a position of strength and dignity,” Iran’s state-run Mizan News Agency and the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) cited Pezeshkian as saying.
The president’s comments about wanting the conflict to end came as Iran’s armed forces chief of staff warned that any “new threats” would be met with a “crushing” response, Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency reported.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said Thursday it could deploy more “destructive” weapons if the war restarts, according to Iranian semi-official media, after US President Donald Trump said he had paused talks with Tehran.
And he was joined in his calls for peace with the Satanic Globalists of Anus and Zion by Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Parliament. RT:
‘No matter the military power we have, if the people are hungry and no financial circulation, we will not endure’ — Iran’s Ghalibaf
‘As combatants, we appreciate the value of peace more than those who merely talk about it’
People will point out that it seems like the military, or at least parts of the military are doing their own thing. And, hopefully, that’s true. But the government in Tehran exists only to further the interests of Tel-Aviv and Washington in the region. To shake its fist impotently while making sure to keep the country from mobilizing or fighting for keeps.
Iran is not “winning” this war.
But the government and their propaganda wants people to believe that they are winning to avoid fighting for real.
This way, they can claim that they gave America and Israel a good thrashing, and that they’re simply too moral to continue the fighting further.
In reality, they are being sliced to pieces, salami style.
First they lost their entire government, then they committed to reopening the straits, now they’re claiming that they’ve proven their point (whatever that is) and can engage in yet more surrender negotiations from a position of “strength”.
Hell, the propagandists will tell you that Iran is bombing America’s Gulf allies with glee. But if we were to simply check what the Iranians themselves are saying, they blame false flag attacks on the UAE designed to cause a rift between their two countries. They’re not fist-pumping over the Gulf States getting bombed at all, in fact, they’re doing their best to smooth ruffled feathers. Three days ago, the UAE took a dramatic step against Iran that they had hitherto avoided committing to thus far.
The United Arab Emirates has imposed an indefinite trade embargo on Iran after accusing Iranian forces of firing two ballistic missiles at the country, an allegation Tehran denies.
In a statement early on Wednesday, the UAE’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said the decision was made in “light of escalations that undermine peace and security in the region”.
“All trade, commercial exchanges and financial transactions with Iran have been halted until further notice,” it added.
The statement came after the UAE’s Ministry of Defence said its air defences detected two ballistic missiles launched from Iran, with one falling outside the country’s territorial waters and the other landing within them.
As usual, another useless missile volley that landed in the middle of nowhere that undermined Iran’s strategic interests.
Just so you know: the Iranian government routinely accuses Israel and America of conducting false flag strikes on Gulf States and denies that they are bombing them.
In a follow-up statement, the ministry said the missiles had been “targeting maritime traffic” and promised to “resolutely confront any attempt to undermine the security of the nation or maritime navigation in the region”.
Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs rejected the accusation as “baseless”, with spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei suggesting it was a “false flag operation” amid the war launched by the United States and Israel against his country.
Baghaei warned the claim “contradicts the principle of good neighbourliness” and urged regional parties to steer clear of what he called unfounded claims against Tehran, and argued that any honest assessment of the situation must also weigh the “malicious actions” of the US and Israel.
05 May 2026 — Iran’s armed forces denied carrying out any missile or drone attacks against the United Arab Emirates in recent days, Iranian state media IRIB reported Tuesday.
IRIB, citing a statement by a spokesman for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said no such operations had been conducted, adding that any action would have been “clearly and officially announced.”
The spokesman also rejected accusations by the UAE Defense Ministry as “baseless.”
He warned that if any attack against Iran originates from the UAE territory, Tehran would respond with a “decisive and regret-inducing” retaliation.
He also accused the UAE of allowing US and Israeli forces to operate from its territory, urging Emirati authorities not to become a base for what he described as hostile powers.
The warning comes amid heightened tensions in the Gulf, including a second consecutive day of reported strikes targeting the UAE.
Authorities in the UAE said air defenses intercepted waves of missiles, cruise missiles and drones launched from Iran, with an earlier attack causing a major fire at the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone.
Regional tensions have escalated since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, triggering retaliation from Tehran and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.
A ceasefire took effect on April 8 through Pakistani mediation, but talks in Islamabad failed to produce a lasting agreement. The truce was later extended by US President Donald Trump without a set deadline.
Since April 13, the United States has enforced a naval blockade targeting Iranian maritime traffic in the strategic waterway.
Why then are the Resistance Patriot types claiming that Tehran has deliberately firebombed Dubai off the face of the earth?
Is that not counter-productive?
Is that not what someone who wanted MORE war against Iran would promote?
… and these conspiracy claims about false flag strikes have been mirrored by none other than Tucker Carlson, a popular American crypto-CIA podcaster well known for his conversion to Christianity and close friendship with Hunter Biden (smokes crack). Here is what he said:
US political commentator and journalist Tucker Carlson claimed on Monday that Saudi Arabia and Qatar had caught and “arrested Israeli Mossad agents planning bombings in those countries”.
“Why would the Israelis be committing bombings in Gulf countries, which are also being attacked by Iran?” Carlson said on his show. “Aren’t they on the same side?”
“Israel wants to hurt Iran - and Qatar, and the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, and Bahrain, and Oman and Kuwait,” he added.
Carlson also alleged that Israel deliberately sows chaos among America’s Arab allies.
The American journalist did not cite a source for the claim, which Middle East Eye could not independently verify.
Is Tucker repeating Iranian propaganda because he secretly works for Tehran?
Unlikely.
More likely, there’s some truth to these claims. We can see for ourselves that Tehran has done its utmost to avoid striking the UAE and escalating the conflict or responding tit-for-tat in general. When the UAE went up in flames, Tehran went out of its way to deny its involvement on the attacks targeting civilians and critical energy infrastructure in the UAE.
And, if we’re all pro Iran and believe that they’re the Patriots in this conflict … well, maybe we should listen to what they are saying then? Maybe the scale of their retaliatory strikes against their neighbors has been greatly over-exaggerated and the reality is that the government in Tehran did everything it could to minimize its response?
In Baku, the Azeri government committed several blatant false flag attacks on its own population to justify moving troops to the the border. Turkey made unsubstantiated claims that Iran had fired missiles at them as well. There is a clear pattern of Iran’s neighbors playing up the threat and the retaliatory scale of Tehran’s counter-attacks.
Tehran’s denials probably have some truth to them.
From what I can tell, Iran is basically trying not to fight.
Their entire strategy appears to be to not make any sudden movements or sounds and to hope that the Judeo-American raptor moves on to other prey.
There is a pattern of total capitulation here, if you zoom out enough to see it:
General Souleimani is assassinated by Trump in his first term
Iran calls the Americans to let them know where they’re going to be lobbing a few symbolic missiles of defiance so that no one gets hurt
(Tucker revealed that he and insiders knew that Trump was planning a war against Iran near the end of his first term, by the way)
After the death of Souleimani, the man who had invested the most time and energy into cultivating Hezbollah, Tehran cuts off Hezbollah, refuses to continue rearming them
Syria falls after the Iranians retreat and refuse to support Assad or the SAA
Israel and America begin bombing nuclear and missile facilities — more half-assed volleys in response that did nothing to deter escalation
Iran’s government wiped out in American strikes — more missiles showers, no deterrence achieved
Iran reopens straits, signs treacherous Memorandum with the enemy that killed thousands of their people
Iran now claims that they’ve sufficiently demonstrated their strength and are ready for yet more talks.
There is a pattern here, if you just allow yourself to see it.
Judeo-American escalation.
Largely symbolic and ineffective counter from Iran.
Judeo-American escalation.
Largely symbolic and ineffective counter from Iran.
Judeo-American escalation.
???
Does anyone not understand what comes next?
Iran will be hit again and again and again and again and again. Each hit will be escalatory. After the smoke clears, we will be reminded that Iran is “winning” because it hasn’t been defeated yet. It’s like watching some guy having a stroke and thinking that he’s “winning” because his heart hasn’t stopped yet. Sure, every second of spasms during which he’s not dead is a “victory” I suppose.
But whatever.
Time will tell.
[The meme theme for today was “cropped Boomer memes”]
America will secure oil revenue for itself - that's how empires operate, while the sheep cheer for some Iran which was a project of those same people, or Muslims all over Europe cheering for Iran or for the Palestinians, while the Palestinians participated in the slaughter of Serbs in Bosnia. And today's elite in the Middle East, in Muslim countries, doesn't care about them.
And the Russian Jewish elite will accept the role of the USA - you can take it, and you give us a piece of Donbas. It's all a game.
And Europe is occupied. For it they have designated mass migration and the destruction of white Europe, and then they might push them into a war with Russia as well. To exterminate them a bit more.
The world will never be the same again. The theatre show continues, this is proof to you how much a human life is worth - nothing. Enjoy life, make the most of every day because after us there will be worlds and worlds, just in different forms.
America will secure oil revenue for itself - that's how empires operate, while the sheep cheer for some Iran which was a project of those same people, or Muslims all over Europe cheering for Iran or for the Palestinians, while the Palestinians participated in the slaughter of Serbs in Bosnia. And today's elite in the Middle East, in Muslim countries, doesn't care about them.
And the Russian Jewish elite will accept the role of the USA - you can take it, and you give us a piece of Donbas. It's all a game.
And Europe is occupied. For it they have designated mass migration and the destruction of white Europe, and then they might push them into a war with Russia as well. To exterminate them a bit more.
The world will never be the same again. The theatre show continues, this is proof to you how much a human life is worth - nothing. Enjoy life, make the most of every day because after us there will be worlds and worlds, just in different forms.
And to add, I don't give a fuck about Iran - they slaughtered Serbs in Bosnia like mujahideen, same as all the Arab religious fanatics.