The Absolute State of This War (V)

Geopolitics edition

Russia is a master at geopolitics.

That is why Finland recently joined NATO, an outcome that Russia was supposedly trying to prevent for decades. Now, I know what you are thinking. What did our man in the big chair in Moscow have to say about this?

Back in May, he said that it wasn’t a big deal, not a threat, and that Russia would react in kind.

Then we recently got some statements from the Russian MFA that, presumably, conveyed at least some of Putin’s recent sentiments.

Russia will be forced to take measures in connection with Finland's entry into NATO

Finland's entry into the North Atlantic Alliance creates threats for Russia, Moscow will be forced to take a number of measures to stop them. This is stated in a statement issued by the Russian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday in connection with the completion of the process of registration of Finland's membership in NATO.

The Russian Foreign Ministry recalled that the Russian side had repeatedly warned that "it would be forced to take retaliatory measures, both military-technical and other, in order to stop the threats to our national security arising from Finland's entry into NATO."

So, more of the same basically. I mean, obviously Finland joining NATO is a threat. But the question is: what kept Finland out of NATO before this?

The answer is unclear. But, it seems that with the coming of age of woke Millennial politics in Finland, the more sober faction of cautious policy makers were shown the door. The Finnish people voted out Sanna Marin, but her bellicose anti-Russia and pro-war policies stayed in place. Obviously, I don’t think that this dumb girl was making any actual policy decisions. She was simply a fig leaf for neoliberal or neocon (no difference really) interests taking over Finland’s government.

It does beg the question: what measures did Russia take to prevent this from occurring. What has the regent been doing all this time?

Perhaps we ought to consider what the US would do in a similar situation. Well, usually, when a country doesn’t acquiesce to America’s demands, the State Department springs into action. A network of NGOs, opposition activists, financial and business institutions and international media and so on start putting the pressure on the government to reconsider their unfortunate new policies.

Barring that, the Americans simply topple the government.

Russia does not do this because Russia can’t do this. They have not built up similar networks of influence. This was simply against Kremlin foreign policy for many years. At the most, they fostered business ties in the near abroad and hoped that mutual interest would serve as enough of a buffer on anti-Russia measures taken by these governments. In other words, Russia has talked up a storm, but, as we can see for ourselves, had no actual ability to inflict costs of Finland and deter them from joining NATO. Diplomacy doesn’t work unless both countries have knives pressed at each other’s throats and decide that talking is a better outcome to, well, something else. Because Russia doesn’t have any means by which to inflict pain and consequences, and the US does, well, you get the thing at this point, I hope.

Which brings us neatly to Armenia. They almost joined NATO military drills this year, despite ostensibly being in a military alliance with Russia:

The U.S. Department of Defense removed Armenia on Thursday from the list of participants of an upcoming U.S.-led military exercise in Europe released by it on Wednesday.

Armenia was initially listed among 26 countries which the Pentagon said will take part in the Defender 23 exercise designed to “deter those who would threaten the peace of Europe and defend the continent from aggression.”

“Approximately 9,000 U.S. troops and about 17,000 troops from 26 allied and partner nations will participate and portions of the exercise will stretch across 10 different European countries,” Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, told reporters late on Wednesday.

The Armenian Defense Ministry did not confirm its participation in the two-month drills that will begin on April 22.

A report on Singh’s announcement posted on the Pentagon’s website was edited on Thursday evening to exclude Armenia from the list. No official explanation was given for that revision. The Armenian government did not comment on it either.

It was thus not clear whether Yerevan had initially agreed to join the war games before deciding to pull out of them.

The Armenian military was reportedly close to sending troops to the U.S.-led drills held in 2021 but opted out of them at the last minute. It said at the time that Armenian soldiers join only those NATO drills that simulate international peacekeeping operations and train military personnel for them.

Armenia’s relations with Russia, its traditional ally, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) have deteriorated in recent months due to what Yerevan sees as a lack of support from its allies in the conflict with Azerbaijan.

Earlier this year, the Armenian government cancelled a CSTO military exercise planned in Armenia and refused to appoint a deputy secretary-general of the Russian-led military alliance It also rejected other CSTO member states’ offer to deploy a monitoring mission to the Armenian-Azerbaijani border.

The unprecedented tensions have called into question Armenia’s continued membership in the CSTO. A senior Russian diplomat said last week that Moscow hopes to end the South Caucasus country’s growing estrangement from its CSTO allies.

If Moscow counted on Yerevan not pursuing a suicidal policy of breaking ties with Russia despite Russia being the only guarantor of any semblance of Armenian security in the region, they may have to revisit those calculations. Does Nagorno-Karabakh really matter to Armenia’s political elite, who are almost all sourced from a Western diaspora? It seems to me that a significant chunk of Armenians are quite comfortable with political exile as the last several centuries have shown. There are more Armenians living abroad than in Armenia, which is a poor and dusty place.

The choice for many of Armenia’s politicians seems quite simple: take the US bribe and retire gracefully to the West or continue trying to hold off Turkey and Azerbaijan. We will see what they decide soon enough, I suppose.

Seeing as they have declared themselves ready and willing to arrest Putin should he decide to come over for a visit, I’d say that the decision has already been made, and now it is only a matter of deciding how to manage the fallout for the inevitable “knife in the back”. Can you already guess what the Kremlin will say when this happens?

Something like: “We were too innocent and pure to expect such low treachery from our esteemed colleagues,” if I had to guess.

Which brings us neatly to China, which recently clarified the nature of their special friendship with Russia. First, Putin clarified that there was no special military alliance between Russia and China. Then, Beijing clarified their relationship with Russia and reaffirmed their non-recognition of Russia’s annexed territories in the Donbass. China abides by Western sanctions and does not provide Russia with weapons. They are not serving as Russia’s war factory and have no plans to start doing so any time soon. As far as I can tell, the extent of their “help” has been to refrain from condemning Russia on the world stage and to continue to buy up Russia’s raw resources on the cheap. This is, at least, a rare example of a country actually pursuing their rational self-interests and not picking a fight with Russia for no other reason other than their elites being bought and paid for by the West. We should be grateful for that, I suppose.

Which brings us neatly to Kazakhstan.

What else is there to say about Kazakhstan other than what I said already? [Great article, you should pay me money to read it.] Suffice it to say, Kazakhstan is simply a question of “when” not “if” at this point. But does the Kremlin realize this?

“Yes, of course they do, Rolo,” you say.

If that is the case, are they preparing a pro-Russian network in Russia? Sounding the alarm about the mistreatment and crackdown on Russians in Kazakhstan by the government? I sure haven’t heard anything of the kind. But here’s what I did hear. Tokayev, after being saved by Russia from a color coup, appointed a vocal anti-Russian to the position of Minister of Information.

Askar Umanov is so anti-Russian that he was actually banned entry into the Russian Federation, which is saying something, seeing as Moscow pursued a policy of rolling out the red carpet for anti-Russians for many years.

In fact, the new propaganda khan has openly voiced support for conquering the Russian territories of Omsk and Orenburg claiming that they rightfully belong to Kazakhstan. What will happen to the Russians living there? Ethnic cleansing, no doubt, something that the Kazakhs have periodically indulged themselves in on multiple occasions throughout their history of turbulent relations with the Russians. Umanov has also openly stated that Russians in Kazakhstan better keep their heads down if the know what is good for them.

The threat isn’t even veiled at this point.

According to Daniel Rosenblum, the US Ambassador to Kazakhstan, the US already provides weapons and training to Uzbekistan, a vocally anti-Russian country that sends hundreds of thousands of migrants to Russia visa-free every year. And they are considering providing weapons and training to Kazakhstan as well soon.

Well, it doesn’t take a Nostradamus to guess what the US plan is here.

Which brings us neatly to Georgia.

Apparently, according to some Russian security analysts, the US is trying to convince Georgia to attack South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"The West is forcing Georgia to enter into a military conflict with Russia. In this situation, one should rely on the wisdom of the Georgian people. But here it should be noted that the leadership in the current situation should be guided by the fact that gingerbread, sweets and lure, that they will accept Georgia into NATO , is another trap for the Georgian people, which is being prepared in Washington," the expert explained.

They are one maidan away from getting their wish. Last time I was in Tbilisi, the place was crawling with American soldiers who had decided to vacation there. I suppose they had simply gotten on the wrong flight and ended up in country and not the state. Yeah, I’m sure that’s what happened.

Which brings us neatly to Mongolia.

…

I actually know nothing about Mongolia other than they want to take away Tuva from Russia. Which, good riddance?

**

Russia’s list of allies grows thin indeed.

Putin once quoted the old Tsar and said:

Russia has just two allies, the armed forces and the navy.

This is just further proof that he predicted everything that was going to happen.

Predicted everything and did nothing to prepare that is. For shame. Where are Russia’s armies?