The UAF Mounted a Fresh Offensive Into Russia Yesterday

How's that for a peace deal?

At the time of writing, the UAF advanced 5 km deeper into Kursk, but there were no major breakthroughs by them or retreats from the Russian side. Here is a good summary of what went down.

On the situation in the Kursk region as of February 6

▪️Today marks exactly six months since the start of Kyiv's Kursk operation. Zelensky decided to mark the anniversary with a major counteroffensive, which he allegorically announced in his address yesterday, speaking about the importance of the Kursk operation for future negotiations. Apparently, he expected to report on successes today, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not had any major successes thanks to the Russian military, so today he avoided the topic of Kursk.

▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to break through in the direction of the village of Ulanok, and the enemy managed to penetrate our defenses to a depth of up to five kilometers, almost to the outskirts of the village. Our military fired artillery and drones at the advancing columns of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, but some of the enemy's equipment was able to land infantry in the vicinity of Ulanok. Fighting is currently ongoing there, and there are reports from the field that our reinforcements have been quickly transferred to the village.

▪️The Ukrainian Armed Forces also attacked in the vicinity of Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseyevka, and another column of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was moving in the direction of Russkaya Konopelka, but, according to some reports, the Ukrainian Armed Forces equipment was stopped by fire from the Russian Armed Forces and did not reach the village.

▪️By the end of the day, the Ministry of Defense announced that all attacks by the Ukrainian Armed Forces had been repelled, but there is a high probability that the enemy will make new attempts to expand the territory under its control at night. Judging by everything, it has enough reserves for this.

▪️Zelensky's goal was obvious from the very beginning of the Kursk operation - to hold part of Russia until the start of negotiations and sell this trump card as dearly as possible.

Zelensky said this: "You will see when we reach a diplomatic settlement to end the war, we will hear what conditions the Russians will have for Ukraine regarding the Kursk direction. This was a very important step"

At the same time, he expressed confidence that in the very near future the Russian army will not be able to completely clear the Kursk region of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

▪️Unfortunately, the situation is currently developing according to this not very favorable scenario. If some time ago the minimal advance of the Russian army in the Kursk region was compensated by a large-scale offensive in the Donbass, now the situation is different, advancement in the DPR is being achieved with great difficulty, in some areas the front has been stable for a long time. It is unknown how our command will manage the forces and reserves available at the front, but moving in the Donbass and simultaneously giving a decisive battle to the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk region, where Kyiv is bringing in the most trained reserves and not worrying about losses, is a non-trivial task.

Yes, this shift of Ukraine’s top units to the Kursk area has not gone unnoticed by this blog. They’ve been massing there for months now, more than willing to trade a townlet or two in the Donbass for it. Why they continue to hold back on launching a full attack eludes me, but it almost certainly has to do with some sort of back and forth going on with Washington jerking on their chain.

What might change in the near future is that the chain will be slackened around Kiev’s neck by Trump, who wants to escalate the war against Russia. Remember: Washington already gave Kiev formal permission to expand their bombing campaign in neighboring regions. Here:

Why do I think that Trump will be tough on Putin? Well, he still refuses to call Putin for one, and he forced the Kremlin to reverse their policy of referring to Zelensky as “illegitimate”. Now he’s legitimate again, according to Putin and Lavrov anyway.

The most damning piece of evidence for Trump being the hardliner as compared to Biden is the leaked “peace” deal that Trump is apparently going to put out at negotiations come Easter. The media is reporting on it dishonestly by framing it as a big Russian win. But the terms of the deal include NATO troops occupying 80% of Ukraine, including parts of the Donbass. Furthermore, duties raised on Russian energy will be used to pay for the rebuilding. In other words, Moscow will have to pay for the damage that they caused, which is traditionally what loser countries are forced to do after they lose a war. I believe that the only real thing that Putin and his cabal want are the lifting of sanctions and to freeze the situation in Donbass long enough for them to die in their beds comfortably before the next war kicks off.

But why bother speculating over this stuff when the terms will only change and these leaks are just strategic PR manipulation campaigns. Obviously, having NATO troops occupying Ukraine is a huge L, and that’s just the starting position. It can get much worse from here. Meanwhile, Zelensky is trying to improve his hand and stay in office by succeeding with these deeper incursions into Russia.

Livsci comments:

IMO the people running Russia just have no way out of this mess. Winning requires taking measures that are threatening to their status and way of life. Mobilizing manpower and industry for war requires redirecting resources away from yachts, savings in off shore accounts, tuscan villas and London penthouses etc. It would require reinvestment of profits into infrastructure as opposed to all the stuff I just mentioned and Moscow is rightfully terrified that is a Pandoras box they might not be able to close easily. But then if they just outright lose the war completely they might be standing trial for war crimes like they did with the Serbs leadership. Cant have that either.

So the whole objective is certainly not victory as we understand it but rather setting the clock to as close to pre Feb 22 as possible. At least I think thats what it was until Trump took over. Now it might simply be something as absolutely horrendous as partial sanction relief and keeping most of what they have on the current LBC. But thats obviously a harsh defeat. Especially if NATO is going to be policing the frontlines (NATO troops=the frontlines are manned, not being "policed") and Russian average citizens paying reparations..

…

And finally, the UAF attack revealed yet another Kremlin cover-up in the area. We can call this caper “The Mystery of the Missing Brigade”. Here:

✨In general, the press release of the DIMK MO about today's events looks strange — one brigade, which was supposed to be there, is not mentioned at all. Perhaps because the reports from the field and the lines on the headquarters maps were drawn in thick pencil and it was not entirely clear where our positions were and where ours were not.

The actions of the Marine drone operators and especially Moses (Group Aida SPN "Akhmat (https://t.me/AptiAlaudinovAKHMAT/7945)") are not highlighted, the situation, as can be seen from the footage of objective control, looks too beautiful.

Although, in general, the information policy in the Kursk direction from the very beginning was based on not always objective data, to put it mildly.

Basically, the top generals had lied about the strength of the defense there.

Another take:

Today, many were surprised to find out that the brigades that supposedly hold some positions near Sudzha were only there on paper. In reality, they were never there. It's funny that it's the CIA agent Gerasim who reports in his folders to the wise politician [putin]. He can't figure out that the army that hasn't been able to liberate the border village for half a year definitely needs a new leader because it's not combat-ready. It's a disgrace!

It would make sense for Trump’s team to encourage these attacks ahead of the Easter talks to strengthen Washington’s hand and drive more concessions from Putin.

It would also make sense for Putin’s team to dig their heels in and not allow any more Russian territory to fall into UAF hands. Even if they are indeed CIA agents and traitors to Russia, they don’t want to be deposed outright, right? Surely they’ll actually take these offensives seriously. If they don’t then it would mean that in a nest of traitors and rats, there are still those who would betray the cabal to win a separate deal for themselves with Washington. Perhaps Putin can’t fully control his own cabal.

There are degrees of treachery, is what I am saying. Not letting the Russian army win in Ukraine is one degree, but letting the Ukrainians push deeper into Russia is a deeper degree. Perhaps Putin doesn’t know about these phantom brigades and that is a Gerasimov or Belousov plot to help Kiev strengthen their hand even more ahead of talks.

Just speculating.

If I had to guess, I’d say that at least some people in the Kremlin, probably closer to Putin himself, would prefer that the UAF not take any more Russian land or inflict any more humiliating defeats on the Russian army. But I am more than certain that Putin will sign away 80% of Ukraine to NATO occupation regardless of what happens next.