There Are Now Very Good Odds That Negotiations Between NATO and Moscow Will Begin Soon

Are you sure you want that though?

Look, let’s get the obvious out of the way. Yes, there will be negotiations eventually. But this war isn’t ending with the UAF marching on Moscow. Nor is it ending with Russia taking any more cities, let alone Qeef (formerly Kiev). Nor will there be just one set of negotiations. If, God forbid, Moscow’s begging and scraping is finally taken into consideration by Washington by the new Trump team of Zio-hawks then OK, we may have a deal of kind, sure.

And this deal will last up until NATO is ready to take another slice of Russia’s sovereignty and kill more Russians.

Recall that no deal that Russia has ever cut with NATO has ever been honored either in spirit or in letter. So there is a 100% chance that Moralityman Putin would be setting Russia up for another totally unexpected moral betrayal.

The adult question to ask is: what is Putin willing to do to kick this can further down the road and postpone his ICC trial?

Before Trump had his ear blown off (Trump only has one ear now), I was dead-certain that the Biden people were staying in power and with them at the helm, the chances of a cease-fire were literally zero. Now though, we should consider what Putin’s gracious surrender might look like.

Let’s explore some of the possibilities today. And let’s use a simple scale of 1-10 with 1 being Disaster for the Russian state and 10 being Catastrophe for the Russian state (10 is worse).

Option A:

Allow me to present the Black Colonel DOOMSDAY scenario. Here:

Yesterday, the newspaper "MK" published an article entitled "Bitter Peace: Kyiv is preparing the final blow to the Belgorod region before the negotiations." It talks about the inevitable “reconciliation” of Ukraine and Russia. But this world, according to the newspaper, will be bitter: “There is no need to explain why it is bitter for Kyiv. But why is it bitter for us? Firstly, the INEVITABLE COMPROMISES will be taken seriously.”

. https://www.mk.ru/politics/2024/07/17/gorkiy-mir-kiev-gotovit-finalnyy-udar-po-belgorodchine-pered-peregovorami.html

What is meant by “inevitable compromises”? In my opinion, we are obviously talking about the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from at least part of the “new territories”. First of all, from the two-thirds of the territory of the DPR, which is still under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And also from part of the territories of Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. This will create a legal deadlock. After all, these territories, according to the amendments made to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, are Russian. But the transfer of Russian territory to a foreign state is unacceptable and is essentially high treason. What will happen to the land corridor to Crimea in such a situation? What will happen to the North Crimean Canal? What will happen to Crimea itself and Sevastopol?

A few days ago, I wrote that during the visit of the Prime Minister of India to the Russian Federation, in the Joint Statement of the Russian Federation, for the first time, [Moscow] agreed that the peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian crisis should be based on international law and the UN Charter. In which the fundamental principle is the TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY of states. In this case, Ukraine.

Russian Foreign Minister S. Lavrov has been conducting an advertising campaign for more than a year in favor of the Chinese 12-point plan for resolving the Ukrainian crisis. Does Sergei Viktorovich really not notice the first point of this plan: “... Respect for the sovereignty of all countries. Generally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, must be strictly observed. The sovereignty, independence and TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY of all countries must be effectively supported...” .

So it looks like preparations for a shameful agreement are in full swing. And in its consequences it will be more dangerous than Khasavyurt, Minsk and Istanbul combined. After all, this will be an official recognition of Russia’s defeat and its unconditional surrender. And this recognition will have to be paid for dearly.

But they will explain to us that this is a historic victory for Russia and the famous phrase cast in granite “Please be understanding...” will be heard.

Do you understand what Colonel Alksnis is talking about? He is referring to PM Modi’s visit with Putin in which both states seemed to agree that the territorial integrity of … well, just the principle of territorial integrity is sacrosanct. He is right to worry that this doesn’t mean the 2024 borders, but the 1991 borders of Ukraine.

On a scale of 1-10, this is actually a full 6 million in terms of capitulation.

He submits into evidence the recent statements of Lavrov and the visit of Modi. But, to be fair, Lavrov is so out-of-the-loop that he didn’t even know that the SMO was starting and seemed genuinely flabbergasted by it even when we were several days into the green light going off and troops already moving in to Ukraine. So, Lavrov isn’t really an insider in the Kremlin and he may not know what he is talking about. That he is a pro-Western NATO shill isn’t up for debate though. His whole career has been built on creating a pro-American Russian State Department staffed by Armenians for some reason.

To quote Dr. Livsi:

What the Black Colonel is talking about is a full 10 on the defeat scale.

Thats the end of Russia imo and I’m not exaggerating. That kind of defeat is going to long term lead to the RF breaking up. Putinism will be totally discredited and it won't be to the benefit of the Nationalists. It’s going to give Liberalism and its fellow traveller separatism a massive second wind in the sails.

If Moscow agrees to not even taking back the LDNR and additional territorial concessions on top of that they will agree to anything...and that will also mean war reparations.

Putin himself might not even survive that.

However, it will, of course, be spun as a brilliant geopolitical victory. Ukraine will be declared de-Nazified or whatever, and Russia will retreat to the moral high ground and bleat, “see, we totally do respect the UN unlike our esteemed Western partners! We’re so good and pure and fluffy!”

What should we look for then if this is indeed the plan being carried out by Moscow?

Well, the arrest of people like Alksnis and Kvatchkov and other big Z-personalities for starters. Frankly, it is a miracle that these people haven’t been arrested yet as is.

Option B

Allow me to prevent the Tsarev Hypothesis. Here:

Looking at the active joy in the domestic media about the growing chances of Trump’s election, I feel that among the Russian elite there is an influential group that has placed its bets on Trump’s arrival. They hope that Trump will give Ukraine to Russia and lift sanctions in exchange for Russia turning its back on China. Based on Trump's statements, this is one of the likely scenarios.

Seems like a great option. The only thing that holds us back: the understanding that not everything that is attractive at first glance is really valuable. "Non omne quod nitet aurum est" - all that glitters is not gold. The catch is that they can give up Ukraine, but Russia still will not be able to take it.

Anyone who follows my feed remembers that I wrote how, a month before the start of the SVO, the head of the CIA, former US Ambassador to Russia William Burns, came to Moscow. Then, apparently, the United States was presented with a fait accompli and was forced to agree to the beginning of the Northeast Military District and the transition of Kyiv and Ukraine to Russian control. Biden didn't object. In fact, he said - take it. But the Russian Armed Forces were unable to take Kyiv.

Trump can also say: take it. Ukraine is yours. We don't interfere. Stop the war and take it. It's like being around a fire. You throw a hot potato out of the coals into someone’s hands, and when that someone gets burned and drops it, you say to him: “Well, why didn’t you take it, I gave it to you.” But it’s impossible to take an undefeated Ukraine.

China, which even now treats Russia with distrust, if we start to meander and ask a second time, they will not lend their shoulder to us. And we won’t get Ukraine, and we’ll lose China. And without China we will be completely dependent on the West. Maybe this is the intention?

Yes, this China pivot makes a lot of sense. The pro-Putin faction in America that we have talked about oh so many times before at this point (Luttwak, Burns, Sachs, Mearsheimer, Carlson, Macgregor and other Deep Staters) has been pumping the breaks on Biden’s escalations in Ukraine. Their argument and my argument are virtually identical. They claim that Putin is a partner of Washington and getting rid of him is pointless! Which, I mean, who put Putin into power in the first place? That’s right — them!

Besides, Russia was supposed to be used as meat fodder against China next! That was the plan! That’s why Putin and the Moscow elite fought tooth and nail against pivoting to China all those long decades in power and why they want to join NATO so badly!

Personally, I don’t see this scenario coming about though.

It would require purges in Washington and the last time Trump took power, he showed himself to be a very weak and incapable leader. That being said, he and Putin are in bed with the same faction of the shtetl, so I don’t doubt that this is a possibility and that powerful people aren’t working to realize this scenario. Another point worth mentioning is that China might not be the source of the next NATO escalation, but Iran. The situation there is similar, and Moscow has done all it can to prove to Washington that they’re not seeking rapprochement with Tehran.

Remember the recent gulf island dispute that Moscow sided with Dubai against Iran over?

Yeah.

Overall though, this is the best case scenario for Moscow. They’d still enter into peace negotiations with Qeef as soon as the Americans allowed them to, and the terms of the deal would probably be almost as disastrous. Remember: as recently as April of this year, Putin confirmed with Lukashenko that he was still looking to settle on the Istanbul deal. And what do we know about the Istanbul deal? A return of eastern territories to Qeef-control, but with some guarantees about not touching Moscow’s oligarch friends and their businesses.

Troublingly, Zelensky has come out and indicated a willingness to enter into negotiations with Russia recently. Here:

I don’t see how Moscow would be able to get any better terms than the ones they arrived at in Istanbul though. So, on a scale of 1-10, I’d have to put this as a total 6 million again in terms of CATASTROPHE.

But Moscow would be able to spin this far more easily as a kind of grand geopolitical victory. See above.

Option C

Finally, I’d like to present the Skywalker hypothesis.

First off, Trump has actually waffled quite a bit on the issue of sending arms to Ukraine and cannot be assumed to be the peace candidate. Recall that under Trump arms were already sent to Qeef before the outbreak of the SMO. For one reason or another, Washington seems dead-set on removing Putin. In fact, they are putting pressure on Zelensky right now to launch another offensive before Trump comes to power, as I have reported before.

With General Popov made an example of under the new MoD management, I see no reason to believe that Moscow’s strategy has changed at all in regards to Ukraine.

One more push to secure more favorable still negotiation terms with Moscow strikes me as a very real possibility. Russia’s factories and depots are in flames as we speak.

This is happening all over the country. Residents in Rostov have been protesting for days against rolling power outages that have gripped the southern territories.

And this is quite obviously the prelude to an attack.

Qeef wants to make sure that Russia doesn’t have the supplies that it needs to repulse the attack when it comes. More troublingly, they aren’t telegraphing this next attack like they did the previous one. This could either mean that they want to keep the option of cancelling it at the last minute on the table should Moscow offer yet more concessions, or they’re actually serious about it and don’t want to give the game away.

Furthermore, Russia has not been able to replenish its manpower reserves and is experiencing acute personnel shortages. To be fair, this is nothing new, and Russia has fought the war on the absolute bare minimum since day zero, but years of grinding attrition warfare and sending waves of convicts and betrayed volunteers into headlong attacks against the most fortified Ukrainian positions is starting to show HUGE manpower deficits. This is further buttressed by the MoD’s refusal to rotate men out and give them their vacations or their retirements.

There simply aren’t men to spare.

If Qeef made a push, they’d still face the same problems that they had previously, mainly depleted AA capabilities, which allowed the Russians to bomb the advance before it made any headway last summer in the south. But they’d have more men, Russia would have less men, and the UAF has access to a lot more fancy toys now than before.

The F-16s are the most notable example of what I mean.

Further-furthermore, allowing Qeef to overrun the eastern territories would make the handover of territory a fete accompli and it would be in Moscow’s interests to allow it to happen if they were planning to hand them over anyway. That way, they wouldn’t look as treasonous when the dust settled even though the outcome would be the same. There is also precedent for this, like the withdrawal from Kherson or the inexplicable refusal to reinforce the northern front before that, or the handover of Snake Island before that.

We have to keep in mind that Putin’s goal is to stay in power and that is a very different goal from trying to advance Russia’s geostrategic interests. As we have seen before, Putin has no problem abandoning Russia’s interests, with the most notable recent example being the withdrawal of Armenia from the CSTO and their efforts to integrate into NATO that are now unfolding at full steam.

Finally, huge swaths of the eastern territories are already smoldering ruins.

That means that there isn’t really as much of a financial interest for Putin’s oligarch buddies to keep fighting over them. The power of the Donetsk mafia has been drastically weakened because of the war, and if some rumors are to be believed, they are in bad favor now in Moscow anyway. If they’re not able to exert the same pull on Moscow as they were in the past, then there is again, no reason for Putin to keep fighting for their interests. Thus, allowing a successful UAF push wouldn’t really undermine Putin’s power base at home.

Also, final point, Zelensky has no future without a military victory to show for it. You better believe that he’s freaking out about a post-war Ukraine in which he has no political future. Hell, even Arestovich has a better chance of winning any future elections should they be allowed — and why wouldn’t they be allowed if a peace has been negotiated?

And on a scale of 1-10, I would rate this scenario a 6 million for Russia i.e., ARMAGEDDON, again.

Final Remarks

Ah, but what about the Russian people, you ask.

What about them, I reply. I may even add a derisive “lol” at the end of my retort with a snort for good measure. I’m waving my hand dismissively as I type this too.

Look: there are no real elections in Russia (or anywhere else for that matter). Russians are not well-armed and even less well-organized. Sure, I predict domestic disturbances in the guise of fights and demonstrations and attacks on the migrant camps that are popping up all over Russia thanks to the demographic war that the Kremlin is waging on White people, but they will be brutally quashed by the FSB and the Chechens.

And I don’t think that the efforts to topple Putin by rallying factions of oligarchs and the Liberal oppositions will ever truly stop. Soros and his people are so powerful that they’re essentially non-state actors, or rather, a state unto themselves. Besides, the underlying reasons for why this attempt to topple him remain in place, as we have discussed before. And you better believe that the nationalists will sign on the dotted line with blood for a chance to get revenge at Putin this time around as well like they did in 2010. Also, Putin almost got toppled by a mutiny not too long ago, remember that? This indicates that there are powerful people in Moscow who weren’t opposed to the idea of handing his head on a plate to the ICC. Bafflingly, there were NO purges of the Moscow elite following the attack, only the military and Prigozhin’s network suffered the fallout.

I mean, Margarita Simonyan, a US State Dept. asset disappeared for 48 hours to see who would win for crying out loud. And she sits pretty at her post to this day, no consequences for her fence-sitting whatsoever!

…

But you want me to leave you with a ray of hope, don’t you?

The hope remains the same as it always was. Some faction of the military or the GRU or a nationalist battalion seizing power in Moscow. But I put the odds of that occurring at exactly 2%. Prigozhin’s march was an attempt to start peace negotiations with the West, remember? That little detail gets overlooked nowadays and the whole incident has been memory-holed in general. A genuine, patriotic putsch hasn’t been tried since the 90s because of how thorough the FSB’s killings of patriotic generals has been.

And even if it succeeded, do you know what that entails?

It would mean an escalation of the war and a real war at that. It would be Germany against the world all over again.

Me, personally, I say that if it is our fate to go down, we best go down swinging. I make no bones of pointing out that if someone like me were ever allowed anywhere near power, I’d smash that big red button on my very first day and let the chips fall where they may. Are you sure that you want that, really?

WITNESS ME!!!