Wagner's Rising Star
A new political player emerges in Russia.
There is one name that has risen above the informational shum of the Ukraine war-that-isn’t-a-war news cycle.
Yevgeny Viktorovich Prigozhin.
Deputy Milonov and CEO Prigozhin - two voices that actually tell the truth from the front on occasion.
In recent days and weeks, his Wagner mercenary outfit took Soledar and Sol. This was an extremely bloody fight - something that the 5D people will deny, but that Prighozhin and Wagner themselves will readily admit. The Ukrainian army is not an army of Aborigines armed with flint spears and clad in animal skins that are getting slaughtered at 10:1 K/D rations. They have also had years to erect defensive fortifications and otherwise prepare. The fighting is absolutely brutal everywhere.
Now, all of this begs the question: why was it so critical to take Soledar and continue the attacks on Bakhmut?
One theory: it was to screw up the Ukrainian army’s tempo and get them to postpone their planned invasion on Zaporozhye on the eye of their relatively bloodless capture of Kherson (which I wrote about before).
We now wait to see if the first wave is enough to hold back the Ukrainian counterattack or whether more territories will have to be abandoned. Zaporozhiye is the most likely domino to fall next.
As SouthFront reports, this was indeed Kiev’s next target. Called it, didn’t I?
The rapid advance of Wagner’s units in the Bakhmut region apparently disrupted the plans of the Ukrainian command to attempt a large-scale counteroffensive in the Zaporozhye region.
On January 17, a member of the local administration, which was created in the territories under Russian control, claimed that the Ukrainian troops urgently began to erect fortified areas, build fortifications, although they had been preparing for an offensive before.
They further report that Russian forces have gone on the offensive in Zaporozhye.
In the Zaporozhye region, the Russian army went on the offensive along almost the entire front line. The village of Lobkoye has come under Russian control, and the mop up operations are ongoing in the settlements along the road leading to Orekhov. According to preliminary data, Russian forces entered Kamenskoye, fighting broke out on the streets.
In the Orekhov region, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are securing their positions in previously liberated settlements and are actively scouting for enemy positions. The Ukrainian military, in turn, is transferring additional forces to the area, trying to hold positions on the outskirts of the city.
There is no way that any of this will lead to any decisive Ukrainian defeat, mind you.
Both Zaporozhye and Bakhmut are being rapidly reinforced as we speak. And Ukraine has plenty of men to throw into the meat grinder. They use their superior numbers to slow down the Russians at the front and continue to prepare better units in the rear.
This is all crystal clear if you have a realistic view of the situation. But if you believe that Ukraine has now suffered 600k casualties as the big name 5Ders assert on Twitter though, then Russian victory is imminent. Just two more weeks.
Let’s see who is right.
Now, a far better explanation for why Russian forces attack the positions that they do is politics. That is, the obvious answer for why Soledar was so important was that it was related to internal feudal squabbling within the Russian pecking order. I was saying this before the NAFO people were:
Again, Russia’s war effort is run by feudal clans who are vying with one another for military resources, money, assignments and political power at home.
It is in this context that the assault on Bakhmut has to be understood.
And there will always be people who see 5D Judo-Chess plans in their morning toast and who can spin a good yarn about how it was a vital strategic necessity to take Soledar at all costs. These people never called for the seizure of Soledar before Wagner began its costly assault though. In other words, no one believed that the war would be decided with the seizure of Bakhmut or Soledar before it became a necessity to claim so.
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What is really happening here is that Prigozhin is making a very transparent power play that is readily apparent to anyone with eyes to see what is actually going on. He is bathing himself in glory and portraying himself as a hard-headed doer and a man with his eyes on the prize: total victory. He routinely lambasts his opponents as good-for-nothing lay-abouts and circle-jerkers. Prigozhin is locked in a battle with the MoD first and foremost.
The second part: A bunch of clowns are trying to teach actual fighters how to shave properly and what perfume to use when meeting with higher-ups. I believe that harsh penalties - prison sentences of 50 years - should be given out for the glamorization of the army.
For example, Wagner was attacked for allowing beards among its soldiers and phone usage by the Ministry of Defense. Their video clips make for good propaganda, which the Russian Ministry of Defense is against in principle, for some reason, leaving the task of fighting the info-war up to Kadyrov and Wagner and the LDNR militias.
Prigozhin’s response:
“A soldier must fight. A soldier sees civilians once a month, or even less often. 80% of the time at the front, soldiers wash themselves with a bottle, and shaving is generally a great luxury. A considerable part of both Muslims and Orthodox, according to religious customs, wear a beard. The beard at the front is a symbol, it is a tradition. As Leonid Osipovich Utyosov sang: “When we drive out the Fritz, there will be time, we will shave ...”.
As for tablets and smartphones. Tablets and smartphones are essential to modern warfare. Accurate geodata are available, including heights and other terrain secrets. Thanks to smartphones and tablets, junior commanders and fighters of certain specialties (and they are from 30 to 50% of all military men) know the general situation and can transmit the data necessary in battle. Another thing is that it is necessary to correctly use the means of communication and have those that the enemy could not detect. Of course, some of the degenerates use them to chat on WhatsApp, Viber and other enemy means of transmitting information.
The requirements that Lieutenant General Sobolev spoke about are archaic of the 60s, the result of a lack of modern military experience. This is one of the serious reasons why the quality of combat operations suffers. As they say, instead of bending your fingers and trying to comb everyone under your ridiculous rules, principles and whims, you need to develop along with the development of modern warfare, learn how to effectively kill the enemy and seize territories. And if you follow the principle: instead of the development of military equipment - parades, reviews and competitions, instead of iron balls - stupid obedience and sycophancy, then you need to play to win. It is impossible to castrate the combat-ready population of the country, to force them into an absurd framework. War is the time of the active and courageous, and not of the clean-shaven […]. Personally, unlike the fighters at the front, I have enough time, so I carry out the instructions of Lieutenant General Sobolev and shave almost every day.
Prigozhin also talks a lot about the ideology of strength:
"Good is always fighting evil in the world. Wagner PMC is a force. Russian strength. And this strength is always on the side of good.
PMC "Wagner" is not a country or a regime, it is a young unbridled force that Americans are afraid of. They tried to destroy this force near Deir ez-Zor in 2018, but she stands tallk and looks into the eyes of the personification of evil itself without fear.
Gee, I wonder who else likes to talk about strength being a foundational principle on which good is built?
And about the need to unabashedly jettison the old political lexicon for the language of strength?
It remains to be seen whether Prigozhin will win out against his internal opponents this round or whether he will have to take his licks and simmer down for a while. In some of his criticisms of the Russian war effort he is veering dangerously close to repeating Strelkov’s positions. And Strelkov is literally a persona non grata - a target for minutes of hate by the Kremlin’s court jesters on state TV.
Strelkov, by the way, praises Wagner’s competency as a military outfit and says that Russian media works with the enemy to discredit Wagner.
Again, I completely agree with Prigozhin: negative publications in the media regarding the Wagner PMC should be banned! If only because this PMC storms the enemy's positions at the front and succeeds.
And at the same time, some unreasonable citizens (including those who claim to have some kind of leadership relationship with Wagner) regularly discredit the Orchestra with their public statements and all kinds of video clips. For example - demonstrating extrajudicial execution with a sledgehammer.
Here, he is referring to the clip of a killing of a supposed Wagner deserter being executed by a Wagner sledgehammer - their iconic symbol.
Prigozhin, however, says he was kidnapped by the SBU.
And, frankly, Prigozhin’s power play is working out very well.
I can’t even fault Prigozhin for what he is doing because it is working and effectiveness is its own justification. I can only admire his ruthless power play - this is an ambitious rising star who is clearly willing to play hardball to get what he wants. I sure as hell wouldn’t bet against him.
Also, he is calling for common sense measures that Russia’s crooked elites refuse to take.
It is incredible that Western propaganda is still being allowed to operate relatively freely in Russia. This despite the fact that alternatives like RuTube exist.
The explanation: Russia’s various communications and information ministers and chinovniks get paid by Western big tech to do nothing while pro-Russian voices are censored.
Thus, Prigozhin is scoring major points domestically by stating the obvious about the criminal levels of incompetence of members of the Presidential Administration and the Ministry of Defense.
Prigozhin’s men have openly critiqued the Russian military command, with Wagner officers going so far as to call General Gerasimov a f*ggot openly and Prigozhin standing by them all the while.
He has also launched a lawsuit against Bellingcat in the UK.
Contrast this with the Russian government’s preferred strategy: doing absolutely nothing.
… or promoting Cheburashka.
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Wagner has also started expanding its power base at home. It used to be that Wagner didn’t even exist, officially. It was considered NATO propaganda to talk about their work in Syria and Africa. Then, the deal seems to have changed to be that Wagner would be acknowledged but had to stay out of internal politics. Now they are the newest political players in the Russian domestic political arena. All in less than 10 years. Again, I am impressed.