War or Not-War in Iran?

Iran is FINISHED. Done. Stick a fork in it and turn it over.

Straight to business today.

Putin claimed that anyone who doubted Moscow’s support for Tehran was a “provocateur”. Here:

Anyone who calls Russia an unreliable ally in the Israeli-Iranian conflict is a provocateur, Russian President Vladimir Putin said during his speech at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF-2025). The broadcast is being conducted by RBC.

"Those who promote narratives about Russia's unreliability as an ally are provocateurs. They are provoking the situation," Putin believes.

At the same time, the president emphasized that the provocateurs "will not achieve their goals," since the Ukrainian conflict and the conflict between Israel and Iran are completely different conflicts.

"As for the reliability and unreliability of Russia as an ally, it has already been said here that we must show a certain solidarity, and that is true. But in each case, any conflict is still quite unique," the president emphasized.

Legally speaking, that might be interpreted as a threat. If past events are anything to go by, being labeled an “extremist” or “radical” means one thing: arrest by the FSB. But “provocateurs”? We’re in a grey area here.

Speaking of legality, Iran has threatened to sue the IAEA and Israel.

Yes, please try to stifle your laughter.

They also called for an emergency meeting of the UNSC. Yeah, that’ll go well for them, I’m sure. Once they prove their legal case, it’ll be smooth sailing from there.

(^sarcasm).

Putin also said that Israel is a “Russian-speaking country” and that the Kremlin has close ties with Tel Aviv. Here:

Russian President Vladimir Putin says Moscow will not jump into the escalating Iran-Israel conflict despite Washington’s weekend air-strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. Addressing the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, he stressed the need to “stay neutral” because “almost two million people from the former Soviet Union and the Russian Federation reside in Israel. It is almost a Russian-speaking country today. And, undoubtedly, we always take this into account in Russia’s contemporary history”.

Do you know who else Putin refers to as “Russian-speaking”? Donbass and Ukraine generally. That’s why he did the SMO, ostensibly, remember? So, perhaps Israel will also need an SMO to protect it from Iran, led by Russia. I mean, you see the logic here, right? I would much rather put money on Russia intervening to protect Israel than on Russia intervening to prop up Iran. And if Russia were to intervene on Iran’s behalf, it would look a lot like their Syria intervention to prop up Assad, if you get my drift.

Anyway, peace reigns in the Middle East now.

Donald Trump delivered on a historic ceasefire. Maybe you heard about that. The bombs are still flying at the time of me writing, but maybe we will get a pause of some kind. I don’t know. Does it really matter? No, of course not. You are very very very stupid if you actually take those Tweets or “Truths” that he posted seriously. Clinically retarded, at this point. Stop reading my blog and go back to Unz if you do, please.

Thank you.

…

What I do know is the following:

• The war against Iran was NEVER about Iran’s nuclear program

• Striking Iran’s nuclear facilities therefore means nothing in the context of long-term Judeo-Anglo interests in the region

• The strikes on Iran are intended to effect regime change, and, most importantly, chaos in the country

• The ideal scenario is to trigger a long-lasting bloodbath in Iran by either:

  • toppling the existing government and installing an even weaker one

  • funding separatist groups against the current government

  • invading the country and setting up forward operating bases in it

• Chances are, we will have all three things occur eventually, as they did in Syria

Tangentially related is my growing skepticism about the true nature of nuclear weapons and what they mean in the geostrategic sense for countries that acquire them. I mean, why has it taken Iran 40+ years to get their nuclear program up to some magical critical refinement threshold? Didn’t the Manhattan project make the world’s first nukes in like, what, 18 months?

It shouldn’t take so long to acquire nukes, even if we accept the conventional narrative about the science behind making them. If we start dabbling in unconventional explanations, then perhaps Hiroshima and Nagasaki were actually firebombed, not nuked. And the subsequent tests that were caught on film and shared around the world? Well, there’s a lot of questions about those. But who knows. I do my analyses assuming the conventional narrative, in case you’re getting worried about where I’m going with today’s post. Relax, I’m not going off the deep end here. I get enough grief for alleging that, shocker, the Russian and Iranian governments aren’t as moral and victorious as they portray themselves being. No, it’s just a niggling doubt in the back of my mind that continues to grow about the true nature of nukes.

But I don’t know. Really, I don’t.

Without getting too conspiratorial, it seems obvious to me that the mullahs were told in no uncertain terms to drag their feet in acquiring big bombs that could actually damage their enemies, and that that they complied with this Judeo-Christian mitzvah imposed on them by the West + Israel.

This is because the Mullahs were literally installed in power by Western intelligence agencies. Russian conspiracy sources allege that the Mullahs were meant to keep the military hardliners and Communist sympathizers out of power. Seeing as the Mullahs were all living in the West at the time, and then all of a sudden they reappear at the head of some deeply unpopulist Islamic hardliner fundamentalist coup in Iran, a secular country where the vast majority of Persians don’t like Islam at all, and seize power overnight, and then proceed to launch a disastrous war against secular Iraq, which is the top enemy of Israel at the time … well … perhaps you should consider what I’m saying, at this point.

Or consider the points that

Neoliberal Feudalism

raised, at least:

Greater Israel is Happening: Part 2

Also, I’ve written about the USSR’s role in all of this before in my Andropov piece. Take the time to read it, please.

Don’t be lazy.

Just do it:

Thus, the idea that these Trump strikes had something to do with Iran’s non-existent nukes is ridiculous.

Thus x2, Trump declaring “Mission Accomplished” in his increasingly unhinged boomer-baboon-babble on Truth Social, is a lie, seeing as this was never the mission at all.

Thus x3, we are being treated to another deception about ceasefires.

And what is the purpose of first bombing Iran and then declaring a ceasefire/”peace through strength”? Well, here are some simple explanations that come to mind:

Premise: Trump wants to be seen as being the “peace president”.

Problem: Despite this, he is being pressured to start a war and commit American peasants to the battlefield.

Solution: A symbolic half-measure to buy time and win some PR moral high ground.

And as for the predictions, well, I believe that this now second “Not-War” will only escalate and that Iran will be on the back foot and subject to routine humiliation as it continues to drag on and Iran’s military capabilities bleed out into the sand. But that’s just me.

Let’s see what the crazy Russians are saying about it.

Rybar has a good track record (on non-Donbass related wars) and he says that Trump’s posting is all just a hoax. Rybar predicted the swift ouster of Assad, and he even predicted the American strikes on those specific nuclear facilities in Iran by name several days before they occurred. To simple-minded “kooks” and “crackpots” such as myself, being able to predict something and then having it occur, even though you didn’t provide a proper MLA format citation of your source, is good enough for me to perk my ears up and take notice. Not so to the Learned Elders at Unz Review, who have banned me from further participation, after sending me a string of disgusting, unhinged and feminine emails in which my personal character was shamelessly slandered … but I digress.

Reminder: Rybar is a Telegram project run by a GRU spook, so, for once, the so-called “insiders” with their “sources” are providing us with genuine leaks of relevant information.

Here is what he says now:

On the evening of June 23, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a massive missile attack on American military facilities in the region.

According to Arabic-language media, at least six ballistic missiles were fired at the region's largest airbase, Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Another missile was allegedly aimed at Iraq, and launches were also recorded in the direction of Kuwait and Bahrain.

🖍Apparently, none of the missiles reached their targets: the Internet is full of footage of interceptions in the air over Doha, but there is no video of the landings yet. Fighters from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United States were also scrambled.

🚩What happened is very reminiscent of the strike on the Ain al-Asad base in Iraq in January 2020, which became an "act of retaliation" for the death of Qasem Soleimani. Even now, the missile attack looks like a pre-calibrated "retaliatory act" with elements of preliminary coordination.

❗Judging by the prompt closure of airspace over US bases and the redeployment of air defense systems, Washington was aware of the possibility of a strike. What can we say if in the morning all Western news outlets were full of reports about this, indicating a specific country.

📌This format of a limited strike allows Iran to maintain the political position of a "strong response", but avoid direct military escalation with the United States. And the Iranian street, disconnected from the World Wide Web, can say about the victory (https://t.me/rybar/71578) censored by the damned Americans and Zionists.

Yes, it is the same playbook as the Russian MoD fireworks over Ukraine.

These are PR fireworks displays, not military strikes.

Thus, the memes about the latest Iranian strikes are only half-accurate.

And on the recent so-called “ceasefire”, Rybar had this to say:

US President Donald Trump announced an imminent ceasefire between Iran and Israel: at the moment, Israel is still striking Tehran, and the Iranians may also launch something in response.

But a ceasefire is expected soon — and, as reported by Reuters and Axios sources, the Iranians were the initiators. A high-ranking source from Iran has allegedly already confirmed this to the media. In Israel, after a three-hour meeting of the Security Council, they refused to comment on the ceasefire on Netanyahu's orders.

🖍 The Iranian strike on American facilities, which, thanks to the disconnected Internet, told their domestic audience about the "successful success", allowed the Tehran authorities to "end on a high note": and therefore even the initiative for a ceasefire will look like an act of "noble generosity".

🚩The Americans got their profit from the conflict: in fact, Donald Trump and his comrades "came prepared" and took responsibility first for defeating the Iranian nuclear program, and then for achieving a truce. The Israelis did all the dirty work, but "trader Trump" twisted everything to his advantage. And his entourage also made money on the conflict.

🏳You shouldn't expect immediate peace (which we talked about (https://t.me/rybar/71548) two days ago): detente has begun, the proxy confrontation will continue.

The activity of pro-Iranian groups will not decrease: a strike in Iraq was just announced (before that, since 2024, systematic shelling of American military facilities has not been carried out according to an unspoken agreement between the US and Iran, but after the strike on Camp Taji, a response may follow). In addition, the Israelis will probably continue their sabotage and terrorist activities, moving on to a "guerrilla war" in Iran. And we shouldn't forget about the Yemeni Houthis, who have declared war on Israel.

❗With a high degree of probability, the intensity of passions will decrease by an order of magnitude in the coming weeks. However, the conflict has in any case raised the stakes in the confrontation in the Middle East, and therefore there will definitely be no return to the status quo of a month ago: at a certain point, the Israelis will need another "small victorious war" (as has been happening since October 7, 2023).

📌 And if you look at the jump in NASDAQ - the truce was announced exactly two minutes before the opening of trading. The indices rushed up, as if on command. For the businessmen at the helm of the United States, war is just a way to play on volatility. They made money, as usual.

Russia’s geopolitical analysts really are the best of the best … except when it comes to discussing anything related to Russia, of course. That’s where you need someone like me to come in and read between the cope, lies and half-truths that they are forced to tell by their KBG/FSB masters.

So, in conclusion, the war will continue, but it will morph into a “Not-War” because peace has been declared and that means that no more war is possible, because to claim otherwise would be unpatriotic. In other words, bombs will continue to fly, and Iranian targets will continue to get incinerated, but at a leisurely pace for a time, and not covered in the news media in the context of “war” but rather “Not-War”. This should be sounding quiet familiar to the Stalkers who read this blog over the last couple of years.

Here is what the old-timer military hardliner types shared on Telegram:

The military and political actions of all parties to the conflict in the Middle East are very strange. This is not how to fight. Trump's war with the ayatollahs is very similar to a game of give-away.

At the end, it is quite possible that Trump, without destroying Iran's nuclear potential, will announce that he has destroyed it, and the Iranians will celebrate their victory in the style of "they did not break us, they did not bend us."

It is unclear why this whole circus was needed. Let's see how events develop, but what is happening now is a very strange fuss with each side trying to save face. It looks very much like a deal that has already taken place.

Indeed.

If so though, what did Tehran give away to gain the temporary breather?

I’m sure we will find out soon enough, but that it won’t be widely shared or reported or acknowledged. Because both “sides” don’t want to discuss the possibility of Tehran having bent the knee. NAFO types don’t want to acknowledge that Japan Iran has already offered to surrender and TehranAnon doesn’t want its supporters to know that it has already offered to surrender.

That should make sense.

Anyway, the bombings will continue, and when all of Iran’s military assets have been totally degraded, we will get an SMO on Tehran or some separatist uprising in one of the half-dozen provinces in Iran where there is multipolar-multicultural diversity-is-our-greatest-strength.

Just take your pick on that.

Will it be Paki terrorists? Arab religious fundamentalists? Azeris backed by Turkey? Or the Liberal, pro-West Iranian diaspora elites sent back in to trigger another color revolution in Tehran?

…

Either way, Putin sends his warmest wishes and tenderest regards to Tehran.

Here:

As Reuters writes, (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/irans-supreme-leader-asks-putin-do-more-after-us-strikes-2025-06-23/) the Iranian Foreign Minister, who was in the Kremlin today, was supposed to hand Vladimir Putin a letter from Ayatollah Khamenei asking for additional help from Russia. There was no confirmation from Moscow. Araghchi conveyed best wishes from the Supreme Leader and President of Iran to President Putin.

The publication writes that Iran is not impressed with Russia's support, Iranian sources told Reuters, and the country wants Putin to do more to support it against Israel and the United States. The sources did not specify what kind of help Tehran would like to receive.

Iranian officials also said that, in their opinion, Russia has not done enough to support it, and that they feel betrayed by major powers such as Russia and China.

The jokes is on you, Iranians.

Why would you ever rely on a man who runs a government completely run by Israelis to side with you in a conflict with Israel?

If there are any Iranians that read my blog, well, maybe you should take this as a warning and a wake up call to wisen up already.

Washington is not your friend and regime change will be hellish to live under.

The Kremlins are not your friends and they will do NOTHING to prevent or deter the Judeo-Anglos.

Your ancient allies and dearest friends the Chinese will do nothing either, obviously.

…

Maybe your ally India will provide their phul sapport?

Hmm. Yeah. About that …