Let’s start with another Belgorod sit-rep. The Israeli-leakers say that evacuations in Belgorod will be announced on the 19th of August. Here:
From August 19, entry to 5 settlements in the Belgorod region will be closed, and residents will be resettled.
Earlier they and others reported on a UAF build-up along the Belgorod border.
What can I say other than “let’s see”?
Perhaps a defense will be mustered. After all, during the Zaporozhye attack, we had several acts of god (which one though?) which came through for Russia at the last minute:
The sacking of the competent “Ukrainian” General Zaluzhny by Zelensky right ahead of the attack
Someone blowing the dam and thereby closing off the entire southern attack vector
The Americans refusing to provided AA to replace depleted stocks for the UAF
Russian General Popov commandeering supplies and men to defend from the primary push; he is sitting in prison now because of his actions
Refusal of Kiev to commit any reserves to overwhelm and push through anywhere
But back then the same signs leading up to a total Russian disaster were already in place. Gerasimov was talking about “difficult decisions’ and there was a preemptive evacuation of people who were pretty deep into the interior of the land corridor. I think the plan was to surrender the land corridor. But, someone interfered by blowing the dam, refusing to retreat gracefully. No doubt we will get information leaked about what happened there by a GRU-affiliated channel eventually.
We have the same warning signs more or less with Belgorod going off right now.
There is no doubt in my mind that Belgorod will be targeted by Kiev. Just like there was no doubt in my mind six months out then that Kiev would attack Zaporozhye. Strelkov thinks that the follow-up to Kursk will be an attack on Crimea. Some other commenters like Tsarev have said that they think it will be somewhere in the south again. Me, I think it’s Belgorod because I believe in the “territory swap” conspiracy theory that I’ve outlined before.
In particular, the expanded Skywalker Hypothesis is that Putin and his cabal are keen to go along with this plan. That is, they want Kiev to take these territories so that they can be swapped for Donbass territories and then a bow can be put on the whole SMO affair after amicable negotiations among friends. But my suspicion is that Kiev + Washington will renege on the deal and simply not hold up their end of the swap should it come to that, and that Putin will whine that he was deceived again when it all happens. I believe that Putin is being strung along with various proposals for how the Not-War can be ended with him still in office and not in a cell in the Hague by the West.
I don’t think that the West will ever stop applying the pressure until they get a full blown war occurring within Russia. If they could, the Western elite would keep this war going indefinitely. But that’s pretty far down the line still.
Let’s just see how the next UAF push pans out first.
And now a recap of some note-worthy news coming out of Russia.
Kiev invaded Kursk (Russia) about a week ago with tens of thousands of men and is STILL THERE
The Russian MoD and FSB LIED and said that there were 1) just some rogue terrorists running loose 2) the attack had been stopped at the border 3) that there were only 1000 men involved, who were all dead 4) that the situation was stable and 5) now they’re saying that they’ve killed 15K UAF soldiers in the last week
Here:
How do you kill 15k men in a small raiding party of 1000 men? Does the math work out, guys?
Question: in what battle did Kiev lose 14 thousand men in less than 3-4 days?
Answer: yeah, you would ask that, wouldn’t you, NAZI NAZI NAZI DIE DIE DIE!!!
Western journalists are now taking tours of Kursk i.e., have crossed into Russia to film war reports
Key infrastructure bridges in Kursk have been blown by the UAF (wow, turns out that it CAN be done!)
The fall of the city of Sudzha has been confirmed (duh.); it
was not defended in any meaningful way by the Kremlin; residents were left to fend for themselves
Lukashenko has called for a ceasefire and negotiations, says that Kursk can’t be retaken by Russia anyway; this has led to accusations that he has taken a side deal offered to him by the West
Here:
Igor writes (https://t.me/russ_orientalist/18065) correctly, but I will try to explain it more simply. Igor believes that after Kuleba's [Ukrainian ambassador] visit to China, China asked Lukashenko to withdraw his troops from the border with Ukraine. This gave the Ukrainian Armed Forces the opportunity to use these forces to invade the Kursk region. In turn, China complicated their agreements with Russia. That is, China is pressuring Russia to accept the peace plan of China and Brazil - the border with Ukraine along the current front line.
I can neither confirm nor deny this version. The only thing I can say in favor of Igor's version: according to my information, after the Swiss summit, where Zelensky was disappointed in both Europe and the United States, he gathered his entourage and said, "China is our everything, let's work with China." As a result, Kuleba was sent to China. Now go back to the beginning of the post.
I thought that Luka had deployed his military closer to the border, not further away.
*shrugs*
I guess time will tell. I can’t blame Luka for wanting to distance himself from Putin and his band of psychos, but nothing good can come of making side-deals with the West. Either way, Luka is surrounded on all sides by enemies and his days are numbered, that’s just the sad reality.
A Russian mercenary outfit leader (like Prigozhin) recorded a video statement declaring that the Russian war effort is cooked and that only defeat going forward can be expected.
A write-up of who he is and what he said is here. The video is in Russian, unfortunately. Maybe we should keep an eye on this guy going forward?
In recent weeks, a person has appeared in the Telegram community who has attracted a lot of interest. And this person is real. This is the founder and head of the private military company "Paladin" Georgy Konstantinovich Zakrevsky. Here is the official website of this PMC: https://paladinkrite.com/ . Judging by the site, it is located at the address: Moscow, 1st Kozhevnichesky pereulok, 6, building 6. The site also lists a phone number and email address. There is a Telegram channel "Military Union Paladin" https://t.me/VSPaladin2024 It is noteworthy that the email addresses of the PMC and the "Military Union Paladin" have the same domain paladinkrite.com. So we can assume that the "Paladin Military Union" has a direct relationship with the PMC "Paladin"
Georgy Zakrevsky "lit up" in recent weeks with his videos, in which he gives very harsh assessments of what is happening in the country and in the SVO zone. Moreover, in my opinion, the assessments are objective and justified. But given the current repressive policy of the authorities regarding any manifestations of dissent and especially its criticism, it seems that he has gone for broke and continues the work of the head of the PMC "Wagner" Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Little is known about the personality of Georgy Zakrevsky. Judging by the Internet, Georgy Zakrevsky is the founder of the company "Paladin", which specializes in military consulting. The company's scope of activities includes security (including military, security of facilities, cargo, etc.), practical seminars.
Georgy Zakrevsky has been through several hot spots, including Donbass, Libya, Syria, and is also an expert on the Middle East, a combat training instructor, a lawyer, and a military consultant. He is included in the database of the Ukrainian website "Peacemaker" (banned in Russia).
Georgy Zakrevsky was born on June 18, 1971 in Moscow. After school, he was called up to serve in the armed forces of the USSR, served in the border troops on the state border. In 1991, after serving in the army, he entered a university, then received a law degree. Further information about his activities is not disclosed. It is known that Zakrevsky participated in military operations, was present in "hot spots", and has experience in providing security for VIPs.
Zakrevsky carefully protects his personal life, preferring to flaunt only his achievements and the work of the Paladin company. There is no information about his spouse and children.
His background screams SPOOK but then that is to be expected. You have to be a gold-souled Guardian to have a voice in our modern-day Utopia. More interestingly, he might be GRU, which seems to be involved in a genuine grudge match to the death with the FSB. I will have to write an in-depth article on that dynamic soon.
Chechen commissars stand accused of threatening to kill retreating Russian conscripts Soviet-style, causing mass surrender to the UAF
The Chechens themselves ran for it as soon as the UAF began moving forward and many of them surrendered themselves
Yet another “Russian” general has been sacked; the PR guy who claims to have been the mind behind the “Z” symbol
Here:
Suddenly, Andriy Ilnitsky was dismissed from the post of Adviser to the Minister of Defense on Information Policy at the Ministry of Defense.
A native of Lvov, he held this position since 2015, and in 2003-2006 he worked as a top manager at Khodorkovsky's Open Russia. There he was responsible for leadership and regional projects. Subsequently, Open Russia was recognized as a foreign agent, and its activities were banned. I understand that nothing points to this, but it is very possible that Andriy Ilnitsky is a hidden saboteur and even a traitor. I am glad that he was finally removed from the Ministry of Defense. Good luck!
Incredible, isn’t it?
A man with close ties to Khodorkovsky, a man who works with Western intelligence to try and bring down the government in Moscow has on of his top guys in the Ministry of Defense and no one blinked an eye for 2+ years. Don’t the Teixeira claims that the Russian MoD tells Kiev ahead of time where they are going to bomb suddenly start to sound more plausible?
A better question to ask is whether there is anyone at all in the MoD who doesn’t report to the CIA or MI6. Also, a better claimant to the title of “Z” meme-man is actually the PMC captain Mangushev, who was assassinated by his own side in Donbass two years ago.
There have actually been like 5? more high-level firings since I touched the topic last and I can’t keep up with it all. On the one hand, I’ve been saying that the MoD is a corrupt agency staffed by foreign assets for 2+ years now so I’m glad to see these firings. On the other hand, I have no reason to believe that better people are replacing them.
So few of my new readers follow the links that I post in these articles and so many complain that they don’t know where to start reading my blog. Reading these supplementary materials would be a good start, guys!
Oh, a big news item came up, but wasn’t commented on anywhere:
The US is considering giving Kiev even better long-range missiles.
That just means that it is only a matter of time until they get them. Here:
❗The United States is open to the idea of transferring JASSM long-range cruise missiles to Ukraine, although a final decision on this matter has not been made, Politico reported, citing a number of unnamed US administration officials.
According to them, a final decision on the delivery has not yet been made, but the administration of US President Joe Biden is currently working out the details.
According to data on the website of JASSM missile manufacturer Lockheed Martin, the range of these air-to-ground cruise missiles exceeds 926 km.
The radius of destruction when launched from the city of Sumy is shown in the illustration.
There is a bombing campaign underway over all of Russia that has been ongoing and escalating for months now.
Airfields all around Kursk are going up in flames
In other words, they’re doing just fine even without the fancy new rockets. Also, Z-bloggers report that they’re planning to start hitting nuclear weapons facilities next. Here:
‼️🇺🇦🏴☠️ Ukraine intends to strike Zaporizhzhya and Kursk NPPs - sources
▪️The strikes are planned to be carried out on spent nuclear fuel storage sites in the Kursk and Zaporizhzhya regions, federal media report citing security officials.
▪️The Kiev regime plans to attach a warhead with radioactive material - the so-called "dirty bomb".
▪️According to sources, the warheads were delivered to the Eastern Mining and Processing Plant in the village of Zhovti Vody, Dnipropetrovsk region.
▪️The purpose of this action is to accuse Russia of committing a nuclear provocation.
❗️A large number of Western reporters have arrived in Sumy and Zaporizhia amid Kiev's preparations for an attack on the Kursk and Zaporizhia nuclear power plants
❗️Locals should not panic, our people are monitoring the situation and keeping an eye on the enemy, including strengthening air defense.
Sounds like bullshit to me. I mean, Kiev has struck nuclear weapons facilities in Russia before, that’s not the unbelievable part. The part about dirty bombs and blaming Putin seems unnecessarily convoluted to me. But then again, I’ve learned the hard way to never argue against a worst-case scenario so I’ll withhold final judgement on this rumor.
Putin’s people have started demanding the censorship of Telegram channels
The first victim-channels are really just basic, normie-tier news aggregators. Strange that they’d start with them. Here:
Telegram channels "BRIEF Important", "BRIEF", "Nezygar", and "Sirena" have been added to the register of foreign agents, - Russian Ministry of Justice
Why bother containing the Kursk incursion when you can just ban news coverage of it? After all, if an army invades your country and the media doesn’t report on it, did an invasion really occur at all?
A question for the great Substack philosophers to ponder over no doubt. I hand it over with my trembling mortal hands to them and humbly await their judgement on the matter. Once they get done penning an ode to Neetshe or CS Lewis, I’m sure they’ll take a gander.
At the end of the day, the following statement of fact is undeniable. When the SMO started, there were battles being fought around Kiev. Now, there are battles being fought in Kursk, which is in Russia. I got the quote from a Podolyak post on Telegram. Here is his new perspective on the war situation:
This morning I once again heard a discussion in some studio about "whether the Americans will allow us to strike at Russia's indigenous territories with their weapons or not."
The answer came pretty quickly. Already in the afternoon, the bridge in the Glushkovo area was destroyed, apparently with the help of American weapons. I wouldn't be surprised if the instructors were American. And the Americans certainly entered the coordinates where to strike.
Maybe it's enough to argue on TV platforms about issues that don't matter at all? The Americans will allow us to strike with anything that will help Kyiv and that won't put the US on the brink of war with Russia.
It's obvious that no "red lines" that we draw in our heads will stop them. Moreover, even people in Russia, when they hear about the next "red lines," shrug their shoulders in bewilderment... How many have there been already? Maybe that's enough? Well, no one believes in them anymore.
And from here I suggest we stop chatting about nothing. It's better to just tell the country once that they will hit us with everything they can and proceed from that (that's actually what's happening).
And plan the war based on that. Without red lines. Honestly, every time I hear about another "red line" I get angry.
P.S. And I recommend to my colleagues in various TV studios of the country to stop considering the enemy weak and stupid. Don't you understand that even your viewers have long understood that this is nonsense? Yes, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have problems with their LS and many other things. But they are the same Russians as we are (but with their brains programmed the other way), and they are armed with good weapons.
And the war in its third year is not near Kiev, but in the Kursk region.
We should take a step back and ask ourselves how we got to this point.
Like, maybe the attack on Belgorod will be repulsed with ease. OK, sure, why not. But where are we now that we’re even discussing this topic? If we don’t take the time to pause and reflect now, eventually we’re going to be having serious discussion about whether or not the push on Moscow will be repelled or something like that. And again the lines will be drawn: patriot = Moscow will hold; traitor = Moscow will not hold.
But we have to step back and say, “wait, what? how did it get this bad in the first place?” If Putin was winning this war, would we even be having this conversation? When will we see final victory given these conditions then?
Let’s try using some common sense, please.
Surely, no one still thinks that Kiev or Kharkov or Odessa will be taken given the developments of the last week, right? RIGHT??? Let’s get real here already.
**
Hopefully you found the news round-up informative. I don’t really enjoy doing these and I certainly don’t win any friends or make any money with them. Thus, I must be performing them as an act of public service. But the last three times I asked for your support, I got a whopping 1 new paid sub for my efforts. Then I went paywall mode for three posts and I got 15 new paid subs.
Do you not see how your poor behavior incentivizes me to paywall more posts, casual readers?
I’d rather just ask for your support, get it, and keep things open to the public. Sadly, you only seem to respond to the stick, not the carrot. That means I’ll probably do another week of paywall-only posts, probably. I’d like to gather 5 more paid subs because there was a yawning chasm of non-support that I was subjected to in the three prior months which I endured quite stoically all things considered.
The solution going forward here is simple: support the blog, damn you.
Simply render them unto me my miserly writer’s allowance (that I have earned many times over, I might add) and I will stop terrorizing you for money for the next month … or until the black line dips down again and the blind rage returns again. Literally just sign up now. Five more people. Stop whining and shucking and jiving and sucking on your teeth and dribbling a basketball and just do it. Unless you’re on a fixed income or a student, what is even your excuse? Like, if you don’t have 7 bucks, you need to start working not wanking and reading internet blogs anyway. What are you doing with your life, guy? You should be embarrassed that this trivial amount is even a concern for you. A drink in America at a trendy bar is like $25 dollars now, isn’t it? You pay that amount willingly each Friday, don’t you? Imagine not paying for a drink in front of a woman that you’re trying to woo over at a bar. She’d call the police on you for being cheap and giving her the ick. Which is a good thing, I think. The lesson of the story here is that women will hate you if you don’t support my blog.
God will hate you too.
Why do you hate women and God so much, Anal-Saxon-Fascist? Just support the blog already and God will reward you with female validation either in this life or in heaven. I’ve seen it happen many times myself. A zero who doesn’t sub to my blog becomes a hero with a harem in heaven after he does. My guarantee or your money back*.
SUBSCRIBE!
NOW!
NOW!
NOW!
*I guarantee nothing.
Hah, I double down on this sitrep with a piece of genius from the immortal himself (the intro is from a post on Locals where I saw this beauty):
Whatever is happening, whenever it's happening, wherever it's happening, Ukraine is always on the brink of collapse, Zelensky's always on the brink of receiving his walking-papers.
This stuff truly is "copium," in its purest sense. This isn't analysis but bad psychotherapy.
"And it’s true, the invasion is a black eye on Russia, to an extent—but it must be considered within the grander overall scope of the situation: things feel terminal for Ukraine; Zelensky is accelerating as if propelled by some unprecedentedly urgent impetus. By his own actions, he’s demonstrating that Ukraine appears to be on the brink, and the West is giving its all in what may amount to be one final heroic propaganda provocation to try to stir Russia out of its comfort zone."
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-81624-zelenskys-nuclear-gambit
I'll be waiting patiently for martyanov's next post totally dismantling the JASSM are utter worthless junk and then be looking forward to that Odessa referendum to join the Russian Federation, as the judo-ninja chess-moving sherpas underneath goddess Maria Z have been telling our esteemed independent roving correspondent nomad escobar. Always trusting the Z-man with a plan!