When Will Ukraine Invade Russia Again?

It is time to make some predictions again.

Yesterday, there was another Ukrainian probe sent across the border. This time, it was in Bryansk, which is near Kursk and Belgorod.

It was small and beaten back almost immediately, judging by the Telegram reports.

The death of these dozen or so probers is being celebrated now, but perhaps the celebrations are premature. After all, Ukraine was sending probes and raids across the Russian border in the build-up to the eventual successful invasion of Kursk.

So, it begs the question: is this a prelude to another invasion?

To answer this, we have to do a bit of speculating.

First though, let’s check back in on Kursk. Putinista shills have been claiming that the UAF has been beaten back out of Kursk for at least the last month now. This is yet another brazen lie. Battles have resumed along contact lines there though, that much is true, but the UAF is still there. Here:

Not very successful attempts to liberate the occupied areas of the Kursk region continue. For almost THREE months now. Heavy positional battles are underway in the meat-wave storming of forest houses. This allows Ukraine to count on Ukraine's unkillable trump cards for returning to the 1991 borders in exchange for the occupied territory of the Kursk region.

But in February 2022, was the Kursk region part of the SVO zone with ONE HUNDRED FIFTY THOUSAND EVACUATED RUSSIAN CIVILIANS?

And the official Russian media continues to create victorious reports about our flattering victories and that all the goals of the SMO will be achieved.

So, no, Kursk wasn’t a brilliant Putin trap.

With that out of the way, it still isn’t entirely clear what exactly went down behind the scenes with the Kursk invasion. There is theory out there speculating that Kiev did the invasion without Washington’s approval. That they then presented it as a done deal or fait accompli to Washington, which had to accept it.

And yeah, there is a lot of circumstantial evidence proving some version of these events.

Like, the fact that there was a Washington-guaranteed “Gentleman’s Agreement” to not wage war in those areas was confirmed by Moscow. That is why they left the border unguarded. The agreed-upon terms of the conflict were to confine it to Donbass, apparently and to keep the gas hubs off-limits for fighting.

And immediately after the attack, Putin and his cronies started complaining in the media that they had been tricked … yet again!

Also, the context of this attack was that there were negotiations going on between Moscow and Kiev at the time. This Kursk invasion was therefore also an attempt (successful) by Zelensky to spike the negotiations because he wants the war to continue. And why wouldn’t he?

With each passing day, Kiev gets more money from the West (a lot of it just stolen Russian assets, thanks Putin!), more NATO weapons, mobilizes more soldiers, gets more mercenaries, and all the while, Zelensky and his people have their snouts in the feeding trough, making a staggering profit for themselves through graft.

Furthermore, Zelensky and his government have no ethnic connection to the people that they are sending off to be slaughtered. Actually, they have an ethnic grudge against both Ukrainians and Russians and so the mass death is a bonus, if anything.

But, judging from the angry emails I get on the topic, most of my retarded casual readers are too brainwashed to notice the obvious hook-nosed truth leering at them and shaking their country down for money.

Oh well.

Goys just gotta goy, I guess.

Anyway, had Putin and his cronies gotten their way with those negotiations, Russia would have essentially capitulated. This is because Putin insists on returning to the terms of the Istanbul Accords, which is nothing short of capitulation for Russia, at this point.

After the invasion, Moscow said that they would have to delay the negotiations temporarily as they dealt with the media fallout of Kiev’s invasion of Russia. They said they would return to the negotiating table after they did some damage-control, basically. And then, true to their word, after everyone in Russia was reassured that Kursk was under control, Putin approached Washington again, begging cup in hand, asking for a resumption of negotiations. Here:

"According to our information, the Kremlin is discussing the format and date of the publication of a new ultimatum to Ukraine to begin the negotiation process and discuss detailed points of the peace track with the West.

Putin will personally voice a new proposal to stop the conflict in Ukraine after the US presidential elections, and two different versions of the text are being prepared. One text is for Trump's victory.

He will be offered a relatively soft version, which will preserve a certain amount of room for maneuver for the Republican (in particular, on the issue of the sanitary zone and demilitarization of Ukraine - these aspects can be quite flexible). The second text is for Kamala Harris' victory.

The Democrat will be given a tough ultimatum (according to our information, in addition to the withdrawal of troops from 4 new regions, demilitarization and denazification, Ukraine will be required to create a large sanitary zone along the border perimeter, 150-200 km, where no military infrastructure will be allowed).

These terms of “victory” are exactly what I speculated Putin’s goals were about a year ago.

Word for word.

The Kremlin is strengthening its negotiating positions by playing the "Korean card". Earlier, we also predicted that if the Ukrainian conflict continues, the likelihood of signing an agreement with Iran similar to the DPRK is growing. This measure will have to limit the US capabilities in relation to Tehran.

Considering the fact that Russia and NATO do not want to enter into direct confrontation with each other, the parties will look for hybrid response options in different regions of the world.

Related: ZAnon and TehranAnon shills have been claiming that Russia is supplying weapons to Iran. This is simply not true. There has been no confirmation that Moscow has sent air defense systems to Iran and if you know anything about Moscow’s true relationship to Tel-Aviv, you would understand why them ever doing so would be highly unlikely to say the least.

The story about Iran being armed with Russian air defense is literally fake news and it is found all over on those fake news sites that make a killing off of gullible older readers who have a hard time sifting through disinfo. It is no different from the fake news story about how Moscow eliminated a NATO bunker of generals with a Kinzhal strike. That whopper was put out by Gordon Duff, a self-admitted disinfo agent. Unz had a good write-up explaining what a hoaxer this guy is and how fake that story was. If you believed the “Mr. Kinzhal” story — a story that I mocked relentlessly — you fell for a psyop, buddy.

Here is the real status update on this arms deal, courtesy of my secret Kremlin insider mole, Nikola Mikovic:

When Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi visits Russia this month he is expected to seek a deal for the purchase of sophisticated weapons to counter potential Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

However, he may come away from his talks with Vladimir Putin somewhat disappointed.

In the past, Moscow hesitated from strengthening military ties with Tehran while using the Islamic Republic as a counterweight to balance its relations with Western powers.

With talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal in the balance and the US and Russia jostling for position over a feared conflict in Ukraine, Moscow could once again be dangling a weapons deal in front of Tehran to get what it wants elsewhere.

The Kremlin needs to find a buyer for its Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jets.

Reports suggest that the governments of Egypt, Algeria and Indonesia have pulled out of deals to buy the jets amid economic sanctions against Moscow. It is believed that the US threatened to punish Cairo, Algiers and Jakarta if they went ahead with the purchase.

Now Russia has a unique opportunity to sell those Su-35s to Iran,  a country that has already learned to live under a range of tough international sanctions. Tehran reportedly aims to buy at least 24 of the multi-purpose super-manoeuvrable Su-35s in an attempt to modernise its outdated air force.

Although the 2007 UN Security Council embargo on conventional arms shipments to Iran expired in October 2020, it is still highly uncertain if the Kremlin would dare sell the jets to Iran since such a move would further deteriorate its relation with the West.

More importantly, Russian policy makers allegedly fear that Iran, which continues to be under Western sanctions, would not be able to fully pay for all defence contracts.

Besides the Su-35, Tehran is also interested in Russia’s Yak-130 training jets, T-90 tanks, the advanced S-400 surface-to-air missile defence systems and K-300P Bastion mobile coastal defence missile systems.

Raisi is certain to discuss an arms sale with Putin during his Moscow visit, which is expected to take place on January 19. According to reports, Raisi hopes to sign a 20-year, $10 billion security and defence cooperation agreement with Russia. Such a deal could include the purchase of an advanced satellite system.

There is, however, no guarantee that a document will be signed during the visit and it is more probable that the two presidents will only discuss details of a potential agreement.

Even if the two countries signed a defence deal, that does not necessarily mean that the Kremlin will go ahead and provide sophisticated weapons to Tehran. After all, it would not be the first time that Russia has not followed through on its promises to Iran. The Islamic Republic has frequently turned to Russia for arms, but the Kremlin easily found excuses not to go ahead with military cooperation.

In 2010, Moscow refused to sell the S-300 system to Iran, bending to pressure from the US and Israel. Nine years later, Russia turned down a request from Tehran to purchase the S-400 system. It is believed that the Kremlin and Israel reached a tacit deal to avoid selling advanced weapons to certain countries, which is why Russia hesitates from deepening military ties with Iran and Israel refuses to sell drones to Ukraine.

However, in October chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, Major General Mohammad Hossein Bagheri was in Moscow for talks with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and the country’s chief of the General Staff General Valery Gerasimov. It is possible that the generals have already made some significant deals and Putin and Raisi will discuss them in detail.

Still, Russian officials are quite aware that selling advanced weapons to Iran would jeopardise not only the nation’s ties with Israel, but would lead to additional tensions with Washington.

The Kremlin could therefore try to create a delicate balance, promising to take into account at least some of the American and Israeli concerns regarding Russia’s military cooperation with Iran, in exchange for Washington’s softer approach to Moscow’s ambitions in Ukraine.

This means Russia would continue to use Iran as a trump-card in resolving its issues with the US. Tehran, on the other hand, aims to sign a strategic partnership with Moscow and hopes to join the Russia-dominated Eurasian Economic Union to neutralise, to a certain extent, the cost of US sanctions.

Yet Iran could easily overestimate its economic importance to Russia.

Moscow appears to prioritise trade relations and military cooperation with Turkey over the Islamic Republic. Even though Turkey is a NATO member, Russia was glad to sell S-400 systems to Ankara. While the trade turnover between Russia and Turkey reached $16 billion in 2020, the trade volume between Russia and Iran for the same year was just $2.2 billion.

Given Iran’s isolation in the international arena, authorities in Tehran are compelled to deal with Russia, although they are mindful of Moscow’s double game with their country.

This should be a wake-up call to do some serious reflection on your gullibility and what might be its root cause.

It is your religious beliefs? Misconceptions about geopolitics? An emotional disorder?

Think about it and also think about why you almost certainly fell for the latest hoax claiming that Moscow has already provided Tehran with state-of-the-art air defense to be used against Israel. If Tehran actually ends up acquiring advanced Russian air defense, I’ll let you know about it, don’t worry.

And now back to the original article we were analyzing before I veered off track:

This is why the risk of activating the "Transnistrian card" is growing: each side will try to get as many chips as possible before the final game. Thus, the Ukrainian story is becoming the culmination of the geopolitical confrontation at the current stage."

I think such an ultimatum can be voiced by Putin, but I think that neither the West nor the Ukrainian government will be able to agree to such conditions. Even considering that neither the West nor Ukraine will comply with this, having accepted it. The West will not agree to this, even considering such peace as a respite for further rearmament in order to continue the war with Russia.

Indeed.

We know that Putin did NOTHING to rearm and prepare for the Ukraine war since the Maidan coup. In contrast, NATO and Ukraine did prepare. If there is a peace deal, Moscow will continue to do nothing but kick the can down the road while NATO will get a chance to prepare an even more powerful army to throw against Russia.

A peace deal for Russia now, especially under the extremely generous Putin terms, would be a death sentence.

Luckily, Washington and NATO know that they have Moscow on the ropes so they won’t take any deal that Moscow offers them.

The very fact of accepting Russia's conditions would mean the West's refusal to play the role of hegemon in the world. There are no grounds for this. The West has still not been defeated by anyone. In turn, Russia cannot agree to less. Russia will never agree to the West's militarization of Ukraine. Therefore, Russia's peace plans are unfeasible and the war will continue until Russia's complete victory in Ukraine.

The last paragraph is nonsense, but hey, the official media is not allowed to speak too much sense about how craven Putin and his government are, so they have to throw that stuff about TOTAL VICTORY!!! in because well, just because …

That doesn’t mean that all talks are off the table though.

It appears that the Kremlin is able to go around Zelensky on some issues and cut side-deals … or at least they think that they can. A good example of this is the recent resumption of the grain deal talks, only between Putin and the UN sec. general, who Putin clearly hopes can exert leverage on Zelensky. Here:

MOSCOW, October 28. /TASS/. Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on whether Russian President Vladimir Putin had pledged to review UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres' initiative regarding shipping in the Black Sea.

"There was a closed meeting, so I can’t provide any details on this matter," Peskov said in response to a TASS request about whether, during a meeting on the sidelines of the BRICS Summit, the Russian president and the UN secretary-general discussed Black Sea shipping and if Putin had agreed to review Guterres' proposal.

Peskov confirmed media reports that the meeting between Putin and the UN secretary-general was held behind closed doors without the usual press protocol, at Guterres' request. "As for the absence of the open part of the conversation, yes - it was canceled at Guterres' request. He was our guest, and we agreed to honor his demand," Peskov said.

He added that during the conversation between the two leaders, "no particular contradictions arose." "Of course, there was an exchange of views on a wide range of issues," Peskov clarified.

Guterres' office informed reporters that during the meeting with the Russian leader, the UN secretary-general advocated for ensuring freedom of navigation in the Black Sea, emphasizing that this issue is of paramount importance for Ukraine, Russia, and for global food and energy security.

Remember: the previous grain deal was just a scam for the son of the former FSB top guy to pay off his loans.

If memory serves, Moscow had to end the most recent grain deal because they weren’t actually being allowed to sell their grain while Ukraine was. Oops! Also, Erdogan had violated his agreement with Moscow and released the Azov prisoners back to Ukraine, from where they returned to their battalion after being feted as heroes. This led to the MoD launching some strikes at the grain silos in Odessa owned by Patrushev’s business competitors out of spite.

OK, got all that?

This is just some of the background info that we have to work with and factor into our analysis.

Now let’s get back to the question that I posed originally: will Kiev invade another province of Russia?

Well, my answer to that is, “yes, duh, of course!”.

The previous attack was successful. Germasimov’s claims that 15K Ukrainians were killed in the first week of fighting are absolute nonsense. They took these territories with minimal resistance until they ran into redeployed Russian marines who put up enough of a stiff fight to halt the advance. Since then, we’ve just been sitting around and waiting. No more offensives or counter-offensives of significant size have been effected.

I think that the reason for the waiting was the backroom negotiating going on and Washington pumping the breaks on Kiev’s invasion.

They wanted to see how Moscow would respond once the dust had settled. Now that we’re almost three months out from the invasion, and Moscow has done LITERALLY NOTHING to retaliate, Zelensky has proven his point about how Putin is a “bitch-ass nigga” (geopolitical term) who won’t do nuffin’ (nothing) to enforce these supposed “red lines” that we hear so much about.

Everything that you need to know about Putin’s geopolitics is presented in this prescient album written and composed by two melanated gentleman scholars.

So, the recent raids on Bryansk being a prelude to another invasion makes perfect sense to me as far as speculation goes. On top of that, we see that the Ukrainian army is not only continuing to mobilize more men, but that they are reforming existing static formations into mobile ones, which is exactly what you’d need for more cross-border invasions. Here:

The 157th Infantry Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has become mechanized. This is already the third unit of the "150th" series (after the 155th and 159th OPBRs), which is being reorganized into a mechanized unit, i.e. will be saturated with armored vehicles produced by NATO. For what? For the offensive in 2025. The enemy is preparing for it in full swing.

You may not believe it. But the most insightful and thoughtful people, especially among those who are in the SMO and are able to exert some influence on its course, will prepare for such events. There are more and more signs of this.

Also, many of the supply issues that Ukraine faced are being solved now.

For example, a German heavy arms factory which had been under construction these last two years was recently opened in Ukraine. They are also building a second factory as we speak. Here:

The first of four Rheinmetall plants in Ukraine is already operating, and the production of Lynx infantry fighting vehicles is also being prepared, says the concern's CEO Armin Papperger.

According to Papperger, in an interview with Ukrainian journalists, the second plant is already "on the way."

The transfer of the first batch of modern German Lynx infantry fighting vehicles manufactured in Ukraine, 10 vehicles in total, is planned to begin at the end of this year.

"We have many good plans. The first plant is already operating. The Ukrainian defense industry is our partner. We now have a manufacturing plant and a service plant. By the end of the year, we will already have the first state-of-the-art Lynx infantry fighting vehicle in Ukraine," the CEO said.

Rheinmetall is currently on the way to building a gunpowder plant and an ammunition manufacturing plant in Ukraine, and they are also planning to launch the production of air defense systems in the country.

"The capabilities will be very good. Production line No. 1 will be aimed at tanks. The capabilities of gunpowder production and ammunition will be aimed at double or even triple production according to NATO standards, which you do not have at the moment... There will also be production of artillery and ammunition for tanks there," Papperger shared.

Recall that earlier it became known (https://t.me/milinfolive/124164) about the opening of a joint Ukrainian-German enterprise Rheinmetall for the repair of Marder 1A3 infantry fighting vehicles and Leopard 1A5 tanks.

One question in all this - are they going to bomb them at all?

What do you guys think, will Putin bomb his esteemed NATO partners’ factory in Ukraine? After all, he bombed and killed a thousand? top NATO generals with that secret Mr. Kinzhal strike, right? And he also bombed all those bridges across the Dniepr which funnel literally all of the men and ammo and NATO weapons from the West over to Donbass, right?

RIGHT???

…

How do the normie-cattle masses not start asking questions when they hear news like this?

Like, how is it that the German arms manufacturer feels confident enough to invest tens of millions into a literal tank-making factory in Ukraine? Isn’t that a big financial risk? Wasn’t Shoigu supposedly vaporizing Ukraine’s entire military industry with his missile strikes?

The answer is that they were given guarantees by Moscow that they would not be bombed. Simple. Also, Shoigu’s strikes were done for PR reasons and to terrorize the civilian population in Ukraine into hating Russia, not to degrade the Ukraine armies’ war-making potential. They did nothing to prevent the successful operations that Ukraine pulled off in the wake of these supposedly crippling strikes.

Also: on top of the German factory, there is also a Turkish one that is nearing completion as well. Both of these long-term investment projects indicate that the war is expected to continue for awhile yet. Long enough to see some profits off of the investments of these arms manufacturers, at least. That Putin doesn’t understand this seems to beggar belief. I am once again left wondering whether this is stupidity or deliberate sabotage at play in his decision-making process. And, as always, I am forced to conclude that there is no discernible difference between the two explanations in terms of outcomes.

All in all, this is a very very fake war, folks.

But the final verdict that I have for today regarding the feasibility of further Ukrainian invasions into Russia is the following: YES.

They:

• Pulled the last one off successfully

• Proved that Putin won’t enforce red lines so Washington has nothing to fear

• Are mobilizing more men and creating more mobile units which is just what you need for an invasion force

• Have more NATO weapons now than ever before and will only continue to arm up further with these new factories coming online

• Aren’t showing any signs of considering negotiations seriously

• Are starting to send probing raids across the border again

I’m feeling pretty confident about my previous prediction that Kiev will follow-up on their success in Kursk with more of the same.

When will they do this by though?

Well, frankly, it seems like they have the men to do it now if they wanted to. They also didn’t telegraph the last Kursk invasion, they just massed men on the border three weeks prior and did it. So, if I see Russian soldiers reporting on Ukrainian troops massing across the border from Bryansk, I’ll let you know. We should be able to catch the invasion about a month out if we’re lucky if we monitor these channels.

Let’s keep an eye out together.

Also, this of course means that the bitch-ass gangsters running the Kremlin will somehow be taken completely unawares by the invasion when it does come, like they were the last one.

That’s just how things go in this here part of the ‘hood.

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