22 Comments

My personal speculation here is that the Kremlin is in fact totally pro Ukrainian and they see Ukraine as something like their own bridge to Western Zog. That is what they didn't want to lose. This explains why the Kremlin was so aggressively anti Russian spring, killed the Patriotic Donbass commanders, ignored the pro Russian opposition in Ukraine and supported the likes of Medvedchuck, didn't skip a beat in recognizing the post Maidan government etc. That is Moscow was more or less happy working with whoever in Ukraine and was supportive of Ukraine being anti Russian and pro Western because the Kremlin xenocratic overlords are anti Russian and pro Western Zog.

The Kremlin does have one unwritten but very observable rule. It's like the слово пацан rule. Они не бросают свой. That is they don't abandon their own. It's just their own doesn't include patriotic Russians. It's the likes of Medvedchuck and yes even Zelensky. Let's compare how the RF conducted the 2nd Chechnyan war with the special needs operation. The Kremlin had a plan, put Kadyrov in charge and keep Chechnya as part of the RF. The Kremlin foisted all kinds of cucked rules on its own troops and it's objectives were bad for Russia but they executed the plan ruthlessly enough. Anti Kadyrov Chechnyans were slaughtered and the leaders of the rebellion hunted down tirelessly. What I'm getting it is the RF can execute a regime change when they want. In Ukraine this isn't what they were after with the SNO. They wanted to force Western Zog to play again by this unwritten rule, the oligarchs are never touched. Western Zog started violating this implicit understanding when they went after Medvedchuck and his network.

Remember what I said about the Kremlin being pro Ukrainian and seeing Ukraine as an important bridge to Russias own integration into Western Zog. When Western Zog started going after the Kremlins own in Ukraine, excluding them and hounding them to the Kremlin this was a violation of the hands off the oligarchs agreement and it showed that the Ukrainian bridge to the West was being dismantled. The Kremlins whole goal was going up in smoke, throwing out and hounding the pro Western Kremlinites in Ukraine was a loud message that Western Zog wanted nothing to do with THE KREMLIN. I'm going all caps there because saying Western Zog wants nothing to do with Russia means nothing, the Kremlin also wants nothing to do with Russia. By going after the Kremlins made men in Ukraine this was a strike at the Kremlin and it's goals to integrate into Western Zog. The SNO was launched by the Kremlin to get their bridge to the West and seat at the table back. That's the only thing that makes sense and puts all the stuff Lukashenko, Putin and the Ukrainians have said about the agreement in perspective.

It explains why Ukrainian songs are sung on the federal channel, why the Kremlins propagandist are more supportive of the Ukrainian language than Arestovich, why the Kremlin doesn't touch Ukrainian infastructure while it's soldiers are dying because VSU has no problems with supply, why they still let Ukraine ship it's grain, why they pay Ukraine gas transit fees and don't touch any of the national leadership, how Ukraine implicitly knows who it's safe to assassinate in Russia.

As for the very modest amount of territory that Russia has liberated it means nothing. They were willing to give back Crimea so they will be willing to give back Mariupol, what they have in Herson and Zaporozhye etc. Like our esteemed blog overlord said many months ago the war is just about the Kremlin trying to get its seat at the table back. Western Zog has rejected the Kremlin and the Kremlin is throwing a "take me back I'll do anything" tantrum. The tantrum alternates between empty tough guy talk and servile sobbing about how their ex lied to them but they are ready to make up.

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Your analysis does a good job explaining all the facts but one thing I don’t get - if protecting medvedchuk was the real strategic goal of the war why did Ukraine trade him so cheaply?

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Pull the Self-Impaled from their own crosses...About the most difficult mission there is. Everyone wants some kind of "hope", been that way for as long as wars and ruin have been. Occasionally something good will happen for the betterment of us fly-over deplorables, never in great measure though. A friend and I often make a bit of fun at some "news" events by saying to one another, "Sooon!"...(in nodding gesture to the QAnons). I just am absolutely disgusted by seeing so fucking many of Our People kill and die for the goddamn Tribe...it never ends. I appreciate you doing your part, Rurik, thank you. "Acceptably" happy new year! ; - )

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Thank you right back, you’ve provided some of the best analysis & most original commentary available anywhere 👍👏👊

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For years (before the SMO) Putin was referring to the west as “Our partners”

I wondered wtf (not world trade federation) but what da?

Now it seems the purpose of all this (ash-aka) Nazi nonsense seems to be the culling of as many white people, preferably males, as possible on any side.

The ancient ethnics know if this creative and predominant subset of humanity is decimated then subjugation and depopulation of the rest is a “doddle”

This time a pre-conflict jab sterilisation program may cancel out the spoiler effect of a post-war baby boom.

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There used to be lots of Americans who boasted that they had so many guns that no one could take their freedoms. Now they still have all their guns, but none of their freedoms.

Here's a cautionary tale from history relevant to American or Russian patriots who may have ideas above their station in relation to the state:

https://stilichoreads.substack.com/p/the-counterrevolutionary-criminal?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1015623&post_id=140254978&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=1meuaq&utm_medium=email

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Might not have been the Z line for a while, but I definitely remember the Bird-Man saying way back when that Russia had no interest in Novorussia - reason being that it was basically a failed state full of inbreds (or something to that effect), so there was not much to gain and the motherland could do without the drain on resources.

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Crazy stuff but I too vaguely remember something like that.

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I think you talk too much. You love words. You love talking, writing, thinking.

And indulge yourself too much.

It's not about you. It's about us. You said so. You constantly say so. Berating, pleading, cajoling.. whatever.

You have something quite simple, serious and factual to say.

But saying things in a simple, serious and factual way conflicts with your desire to play with words and make flights of fancy and dramatic illustration etc...

So the guts of the matter is you need to discipline yourself.

I think you're mainly, here, about this:

" Moscow is run by an occupation government largely in cahoots with the globalist agenda being promoted by Washington and Tel Aviv "

Right? If so then be clear about that, I would suggest. I had to poke through the entrails of your prose until I found it. And I'm still not sure I've found 'it'.

:)

It's all good fun I hope. Though your shortage of a dollar sounds pretty extreme. I've been there, know what it can be like, still there in many respects. Just gotta get things sorted. We all do. Prioritise my old mate Bill used to say. I didn't have a clue what the f*** he was talking about. My priorities were clear: grog first, joints second, women third... over the years their ranking changed but they didn't.

Now I realise Bill meant something entirely different.

You're doing a good job. I think. :)

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Nah I’m ok moneywise I just think I deserve more. Usually one is told to work harder to get more. But I have concluded that this isn’t the case. One must provide what people want and few people want what I am selling. This jars me and causes me to lash out because it is dishonest and disheartening to hear people claim to want the truth but to know that this isn’t the case.

I know that you were just being caustic but I figured I’d give an honest reply.

I genuinely am proud that we got this far though and you have to remember that I’m hamming it up a bit to amuse myself and my readers.

Rurik is a persona. I don’t rant and rave like this irl

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I gain value from your writing and do enjoy your style. But, fuck man, sometimes it is hard to parse through. But hey, one has to take the message in the way the messenger wants to deliver, so keep up the good work.

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You know what man. Fuck the world. I am going to buy what you're selling (new sub starting today after I post this).

Personal issues venting here but I feel the same way in my own life, which is very very different, yet relatable enough to know that nobody should do a great job and feel the worse for it. I will say this since I can sense that you're joking-but-not-100%-joking in your appeals for subs or sarcasm: don't EVER blackpill yourself. If you have to tell yourself that everybody else is stupid for not wanting the truth, then do that. Don't listen to people who say you're stubborn, or arrogant, or trying too hard to convince, or inappropriate, etc... If you accept their premise and change your mindset, i.e. truly try to believe that what they're saying is correct, you will, like Winston ultimately agreeing that 2+2=5, have a less stressful life without needing to fight all the time, but, you will be nothing but a shell of a man from there on. You will have destroyed your Ego, sense of self, without realizing anything so dire would be the result. This will affect far more than your substack and professional life - it will alter everything.

You cannot and should not do anything but speak the truth as you see it. I am amused by your posting style as well, so don't change a thing.

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Thank you for the uplifting message, brother.

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I am a poor writer. Sorry about that. Didn't mean to be caustic at all. Nope. Quite the contrary. I was saying what I honestly felt. :)

Good to hear you're on top of it all. Makes it more enjoyable, seeing it as a performance.

:)

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The nub quote jumped off the page to me as well. Clarity. Mantra-worthy

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Yeah it’s schizoid but i enjoy it. I can read a million other ppl with the same matt yglesias/nate silver writing style anywhere else

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My take away has generally been consistent with Livci’s and Brogard’s comments here. What I’m trying to reconcile is the US turning off the money spigot. To hear RS tell it, Kremlin LLC is on the ropes, yet the money flow from the west seems to be running out because Ukraine is allegedly falling apart. The cynic in me says that both sides are putting up a front to cover up that the oligarchs have brokered a deal, and the story that the west is turning off the money and weapons and that Russia is worn out are just aligned cover stories for whatever deal was cut. But RS’ point about audience / populace fatigue is well taken. I am finding it increasingly hard to give a shit about which evil gang of bullies beats the other. I feel bad for the people caught in the middle, but then again at some point people have to say enough is enough and effect the change they want to see, or die trying.

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The money spigot has been halted bc congressional republicans are blocking it until they get their asks on immigration reform. I know that’s genuine blocker bc if Biden or Putin could stage-manage a conflict between congressional republicans and democrats they would be powerful enough to win the war outright. Israel’s aid package has also been blocked by this slapfight.

I also think RS is being a doomer. Post-prigozhin, Putin seems to have convinced everyone that he should keep his monopoly on violence and people should wait for him to die to start the power struggle. And he is now able to generate a steady sustainable flow of enough new conscripts that he’ll be able to keep enough of Ukraine to maintain a land bridge with Crimea. Sure it might cost 600k or more casualties but who cares?

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Just one question: why then holding referendum in the Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts? Whats the point?

Thanks

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It was probably to bluff Kiev into not attacking by acting like it would be treated as an attack on Russia itself. But Kiev called the bluff

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Esoteric Hitlerism with Imperial Shintoist Miyazaki Aesthetics and Civil Values.

Overlay it on German organization, American eccentricity and Slavic impulsive, wily pragmatism.

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I can't say I didn't fall for the alt. media propaganda at first and wrongly chew out the Muscovite woman I was in love with (I thought she didn't support Putin or Russian reform enough), but I can say that I never once thought Russia's military or economic performance was excusable in any (positive) way, that the Kremlin showed a startling lack of desire to take the necessary steps of internal reform in a supposedly desperate situation, and that the speeches always seemed disgustingly weak and subservient with no sensible value from a sovereignist perspective.

It all added up, and I can say that rational and mystical disgust in the face of something that should have been optimistic, combined with this blog, really helped me stay ahead of the Zanon curve. I thank you for that. I never once enjoyed the videos being shared of death. I think war is healthy, but it needs to fought for exciting and epic causes. There is no honor or joy in watching the deaths of others on a screen least of all when cheering on the deaths of a people one is allegedly a fan of (i.e., Ukrainians are Russians. Every dead Ukrainian is a dead Russian.)

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