I suggested tactical nukes a while ago. Only idiots and CIA stooges think they're going to quickly fight through commieblocks. Aren't the interior walls concrete too? The 5D bloggers like to claim what masters the Russians are at maneuver warfare but the Russians must have lost the manual at their last Davos sleepover.
On a side note, I'm still appalled at the way that 5D'ers are cheering body counts. I think I've seen this movie before; oh yeah I did, it was Vietnam.
Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 18, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker
I don't know if I am repeating myself, but I made this suggestion on the Duran, just a few months after the SMO began. Russia announces that it is going to destroy the Ministry of Defense building in Kiev on a certain day, at a certain time. Then, launch a Kinzhal missile at the MoD. That can be done up to 2000 km away (or closer might be better). The missile descends at Mach 10. I don't think anything could shoot it down (or launch 3 missiles). That would have demonstrated Russian power in its most effective form. Would have demoralized Ukraine (tomorrow we destroy the Parliament). It also would have worked a lot better, a lot longer ago.
Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 18, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker
Not only do the 5D short bus riders claim that the goal of the SMO is to kill or maim the entire male population of Ukraine but also that "taking territory isnt important". With those presuppositions there is absolutely no reason not to use nukes. If taking territory isnt a goal than turning all of Ukraine into Chernobyl ought to be acceptable. They assure us after all that even though Russias air defences dont even reliably work against drones and small airplanes they will definitely protect Russia from nukes so a counter strike shouldnt worry them if they believe their own BS. So yeah they should be advocating for using nukes.
My tinfoil theory is that the Russian elite is divided between an unconditional surrender group and a conditional surrender group. The goal of those who want to surrender conditionally is to set the clock back to the status quo before the SMO. They are a delusional bunch of morons and the ones most guilty of living in a parallel universe. They don't get that events have left that world far behind and neither the Russian people or the enemies of the Russian people will allow a return to the pre Feb 24 2022 state of affairs. As a matter of fact the only way to get Minks 3 is to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield and panic the US into agreeing to set the clock back in order to prevent a total Russian victory. But the mobilization of society, the economy plus the purging of the elite required to get that far would signal total war to the West, and that is what these cuckolded cockroaches want to avoid. They are trying to signal that they are ready to talk, not that they are ready to fight even more.
The unconditional surrender group is much more realistic and they look forward to dismembering russia and seeing their rivals in the other group on trial at Hauge. I think this is where Arbamovich, Chubias, Nabiullina and Shoigu are at the minimum. Yes Shoigu. He wants to be the president of his native oblast after it declares independence and presumably grabs up some surrounding Russian territory and looks forward to Russia being dismembered. Some readers probably remember me making the tentative assertion that the page of the leaks about Russian MoD giving NATO heads ups about missile strikes is true. Well check this out:
That one was made at about 9pm. The post doesn't point it out and gloat like I would have about such a crazy accurate call but the Russians bombed the shit out of the Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut with the exact bombs mentioned in the first post. That is yet more evidence that direct sabotage and the most straightforward type of treason is rampant amongst the MoD higher ups. And that level of treason is indicative of people who havent the slightest stake in the future of Russia.
Many of the major figures of this unconditional surrender faction live outside Russia now but they still have a long reach and many, many assets in Russia. Also the other group that wants conditional surrender doesn't realise how dangerous and determined they are. They would actually prefer to think this group doesn't exist at all.
Apr 18, 2023·edited Apr 18, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker
I see a parallel between what Putin, et al. thought would happen with the SMO and what the neocons believed would happen in the second Iraq War. With regard to the latter, the neocons (encouraged by Ahmed Chalabi and his cohort) assured the American public that the war would be limited, American troops would be out of Iraq within six months, and that the bill would be paid by captured Iraqi oil infrastructure. Thus, Rumsfeld's insistence - against the advice of General Zinni and others - on an invasion force that proved insufficient to occupy the country when the Americans were not welcomed as liberators as promised and things did not turn out as planned.
By the same token, there was no quick collapse of the AFU and no popular uprising against Zelensky's (iy) (yy) government. As you have pointed out, the AFU has dug in and the war is taking on early twentieth century trench warfare properties.
As an aside, what is your take on Col. Doug Macgregor's continued predictions of an imminent Ukrainian collapse? As he seems to be wrong consistently in his predictions, I question from where he is getting his information and what role he is playing by taking this position.
1. It seemed for a little while that the globohomo media was hoping to goad Russia to use tactical nukes within Ukraine; that would give the media the perfect opportunity to show dead women/babies/whatever and call for Putin's overthrow as "evil man Nazi dictator", and given Russia's beyond horrendous PR abilities, it seems like the smear would be quite successful in galvanizing the world against him.
Therefore if Putin were forced to escalate to nukes out of desperation at losing, under this logic, would it be a better *strategic* decision for him to surprise launch at the Western decision-making cities - D.C. and London? But then we have global nuclear war on our hands and God help us all...
2. One of the arguments I have heard banded about on the 5D chess "Putin Amazing" is that Russia just wants to keep globohomo bogged down militarily while they pursue de-dollarization and other economic warfare measures. If BRIC and Saudi de-dollarize, would that then cause destabilization within America itself? Could that be their intent?
I don't buy this argument, as Russia could both pursue that economic warfare strategy *and* attempt to win militarily (if it was competent and able to do so; sending endless waves to die in frontal assaults on Bakhmut seems retarded any way one cuts it).
Fighting the windmills! The issue with Russia shills is that the origin of their malaise is mental, not physical. It's akin to arguing with Christians over the existence of the Jewish god while all they want is a sky daddy. The fat & stupid American "right-wingers" desperately want to believe in Santa Claus. Putin's juice is an aphrodisiac to them. The real way of arguing otherwise would be bringing them back to reality in a harsh way, such as via another Ukrainian victory. (Beating people up works wonders anyway - this would be the recipe for a reunification of Eastern Slavs under Moscow, too, I'll admit that much. Women didn't shit test as much when they could get their teeth knocked off.)
> "Warfare has once again evolved due to new technologies that make maneuver in the open exceedingly difficult thanks to satellites, drones, precision missiles, that sort of thing."
This is a mistake. The question should be raised - why Russia started the war with no UAVs at all, while having 8 years+ to prepare? If there is no good defense against the drones - why not make them yourself? Those would be of great help in the advance beyond the Dnieper through Kherson... Oh wait, the Russians explicitly abandoned their offensive there, even though the Ukrainian defence collapsed back in March 2022. Or, should I say, _because_ the Ukrainians collapsed? Is it so hard to believe that Putin is an American puppet ordered to demilitarise Russia?
> "But, again, they clearly believe that this was their best chance of fighting a war with Russia"
Not necessarily. It could also be argued that the main objective of both "sides" is killing East Slavic men. Now, that campaign is being conducted splendidly.
>"if the goal of the SMO is the genocide of the entire male Ukrainian population, as many pro-Russian commentators seem to think that it is"
It's hilarious how they have changed their tune. Because the war started with the Russians explicitly forbidden to bomb Ukrainian concentrations of forces, trying to negotiate with them instead. Still, even such war heroes as Strelkov do not condone a genocide of the Ukrainians because true nationalists consider them their brainwashed kin - but of course, we're talking about so-called "pro-Russian" Americans - who are most likely homosexual and non-White anyway.
To this day I still can't understand why Sumy, Chernigov and Kharkov are not touched after the initial retreat. The result is that:
1) Pre-war Russian territory is shelled daily, with destruction of buildings and infrastructure, and dead and wounded
2) The Banderites can concentrate all their manpower in the Donbass and the Zaporozhye.
3) They were also given time to fortify the whole border, which was not fortified previously.
Instead of that highly negative for Russia outcome, they could have maintained another front where Ukraine didn't have 8 years of fortifications and minefields, and advanced from the AFU's rear. And yet...
<blockquote>Russia could, in theory, start dropping bombs on Ukrainian politicians, for example. </blockquote>
Another headscratcher.
Let's say sending a missile to pay Zelensky a visit would be frowned upon internationally so he is off-limits.
But why are Budanov, Zaluzhny, etc. also off-limits? On top of it all, those scumbags 100% deserve to be vaporized to begin with. How many war crimes have the Ukrainian army and intelligence agencies committed? Which they didn't even need to commit if they were purely defending the country. Why send HIMARS anti-personnel rounds at bus stops in Donetsk, Alchevsk, etc., at hospitals in Ilovaisk, at evacuating civilians in Kherson, etc. etc.? And these are just a few of a very, very long list of examples...
Taking them out would also help the war, because they appear to be competent, and it will not be easy to replace them.
It can be done within minutes of the Russian political leadership ordering it, and yet...
<blockquote>No, seriously, they are BanderaNazis aren’t they? And the only good BanderaNAZIFASCISTUKROP!!! is a dead one, right?</blockquote>
There has been very little actually demonstrated desire to seriously go after the BanderaNazis other than at the lowest levels on the ground. If this was a serious objective, you would think that any time there is a Bandera march somewhere in Ukraine, it would receive an Iskander, and anyone captured with Nazi tattoos and other Nazi paraphernalia on them would be executed. I am quite certain that is exactly what the Soviets would have done if they had the current technological capabilities. And yet...
Reminds me, I calculated about two weeks ago possible losses of Ukrainians over a year, almost the period the not-war is running.
I took, maybe a very conservative 300 killed Ukrainians a day as average, based on the Russian MOD robot, who announces numbers, and arrived at ~120.000 dead in a year.
I leave it up to speculation for the ratio of the Russian side, but even if I take 2:1 ratio, that still leaves 60.000+ dead Russians, and I think this is too low tbh.
"So why then attack fortified positions in the Donbass head on again and again?"
Well, the positions aren't being attacked exactly "head-on", but more by slow attrition. Whether this is out of necessity because of low manpower, or by plan to minimize casualties, this approach may well be a strategy that the Ukro-NATOs weren't expecting. Fortified positions might have bloody sea walls upon which waves of massed attackers would break themselves, thus producing great Russian casualties. But nibbling away at the Ukrainian fortifications as is actually happening might well be a strategy to nullify the eight-year NATO strategy, not to mention annoying the impatient by an insufficient display of action and derring-do.
One thing seems to be inarguable: whatever might actually be behind the pace of "progress", slow and steady seems to be driving nearly everyone crazy.
The whole false dichotomy (anyone who doesn't think RF is 'failing' is a '5D blogger') is Yank-level sophomoric twaddle, bro. It's literally Reddit-tier.
Put simply: the entrenchments in the vicinity of Chasov Yar and Donetsk weren't constructed with the RF military in mind; they were built while Ukraine was trying to destroy the independence movement in Donbas and Luhansk. They were bastions form which Ukrainian forces could shell the rebels (most of whom were Russophones).
Almost a decade later, Russia decided that diplomacy had failed and that it had to actively defend ethnic Russians.
The fortifications were 'known knowns' - anyone with an internet connection could get a 10cm/px aerial showing each entrenchment in detail. It was perhaps half a day's work for any competent GIS analyst.
Anyway... my assessment is that RF does not especially want the whole of Ukraine: west of the Dniepr it is an impoverished shithole that is entirely dependent on Western aid; the largest 'industry' is GOVERNMENT (i.e., assorted bullshit artists and parasites).
The Eeeevil Rooooskies don't have a Yanklish war doctrine that revels in unnecessary civilian casualties - especially if those casualties are ethnic Russians.
Hence, no wide-area bombing with 'dumb bombs'. It has/had nothing to do with air defence, because Ukraine's AD has been destroyed already.
The other 'dimension' (if there MUST be 5, let's enumerate them) is that the strategy in the early part of the SMO did not utilise advanced standoff weapons (like Khinzal) because they did not want to involuntarily share technology with the West.
That changed a bit when Surovikin was appointed, and the RF showed the world that it could destroy all the electricity transmission network of Ukraine, but were choosing not to. The RF only ever hit ONE 750kW substation - and only did it once - but by hitting 330kW substations with metronomic regularity they showed that they had the capacity to turn the lights off permanently.
The RF deployed almost no Penitsillin counter-battery radar systems until December 2022 - it deployed some Zooparks, but those are 'known knowns'. Once Penitsillin was deployed, destruction of M777s tripled - as did destruction of Ukrainian counter-battery assets.
As an aside: it says a lot that there has only been 2 stories - from MARCH 2023 - about Ukrainian destruction of RH Zooparks, but nothing about Penitsillin. It's typical breathless "Ghost of Kiev" stuff that gets regurgitated by CNN for the Redditors. I guess it will help Reznikov and his coterie bilk some cash out of the US, pretending that they've got captured Russian tech.
On the flipside, there are a couple of West-provided AN/TP-Q destroyed EVERY WEEK.
You also have a strange notion that 'attrition' involves massed-infantry assaults - like at Verdun or Ypres, where artillery was used to 'soften up' opposition fortifications, then stupid young men traipsed across open ground to discover that the opposition fortifications hadn't been softened.
Russia - from what I've been able to glean from my 5D VR headset - would rather keep blowing the shit out of a fortification until the defenders are either dead or half-mad with PTSD and sleep deprivation.
Taking a city when you think of the civilian inhabitants as co-ethnics, strikes me as really quite hard. That's why recently the RF has been doing lots of reconnaissance regarding civilian population disposition - and if the civvies have all evacuated the RF is letting slip the new, standoff, guided FABs (e.g., in Avdiivka).
I hold no broef for the RF - although I have been impressed by VVP since 2000 when he gathered the oligarchs and told them to pull their horns in. At that point BB and his mate 'Badri' (Patarkatsishvili) left for Londongrad and immediately became 90% poorer (but still billionaires) and Berezovsky started agitating abut Ukraine.
This shit in the Pale of Settlement didn't start in 2022, or 2014, or 2004 - or 1991 or 1927 or 1917 or 1905.
It started in the 1480s, with the unmasking of the Judaising Heresy.
For 'those people', RUSSIA IS AMALEK.
Nuland is one of 'those people' - I call them "Khazarim" because they're not Ashkenazim (who hail from the lower Rhineland).
But that's a story for another installment - a 9D tale of treachery that spans half a millennium, with a lietmotif of treachery and racial hatred OF Russia and Russians, BY hovel-dwelling Khazarim.
Mr Rolo, I would love to post the translated transcript of the Fenenko interview, but there is one problem, with close to 3000 words, the comment is rejected as too long.
Although the fighting is taking place in Ukraine, the war is not only about Ukraine. The main objective seems to be to overthrow the USA as Global Hegemon, hence all the buddying up to China and the paeans to 'multi-polarity'.
This is succeeding remarkably rapidly. All the wily Oriental and African gentlemen now genuflect to the east and north rather than to the west, and have transferred their expectations of handouts there.
Russia does need to avoid defeat in Ukraine, else all the world's beggars and bootlickers will transfer their portable affections back to the Americans, but it does not need rapid and decisive military success. Cautious slow relatively low intensity fighting is working well enough to use up the military and moral capability of NATO, without risking nuclear annihilation. Americans are notoriously impatient and are already dismayed by their lack of success, and starting to think a naval war against China would go better for them (until their fleets and aircraft meet the Russian super-missiles which are now being agreed to supply to China). President Putin's visit to his generals on the southern front was probably to pre-empt any excuses about lack of troops or resources compelling them to abandon this vital territory. As long as the Americans can push Ukrainian troops forward in ill-considered attacks, the Russians will probably be able to keep destroying them until exhaustion sets in and despite the neo-con ethnic crazies desire for more conflict with Russia, events in Ukraine subside into a messy stalemate, like Syria. This will be a 'winning draw' for Russia, with possibilities for later local political and military exploitation, and confirmation of larger geopolitical gains for Russia at the expense of the USA.
I suggested tactical nukes a while ago. Only idiots and CIA stooges think they're going to quickly fight through commieblocks. Aren't the interior walls concrete too? The 5D bloggers like to claim what masters the Russians are at maneuver warfare but the Russians must have lost the manual at their last Davos sleepover.
On a side note, I'm still appalled at the way that 5D'ers are cheering body counts. I think I've seen this movie before; oh yeah I did, it was Vietnam.
The best strategy for Russia would've been to wage this war in 2014, right after Victoria Nuland handed out her last cookie. 🍪
I don't know if I am repeating myself, but I made this suggestion on the Duran, just a few months after the SMO began. Russia announces that it is going to destroy the Ministry of Defense building in Kiev on a certain day, at a certain time. Then, launch a Kinzhal missile at the MoD. That can be done up to 2000 km away (or closer might be better). The missile descends at Mach 10. I don't think anything could shoot it down (or launch 3 missiles). That would have demonstrated Russian power in its most effective form. Would have demoralized Ukraine (tomorrow we destroy the Parliament). It also would have worked a lot better, a lot longer ago.
Not only do the 5D short bus riders claim that the goal of the SMO is to kill or maim the entire male population of Ukraine but also that "taking territory isnt important". With those presuppositions there is absolutely no reason not to use nukes. If taking territory isnt a goal than turning all of Ukraine into Chernobyl ought to be acceptable. They assure us after all that even though Russias air defences dont even reliably work against drones and small airplanes they will definitely protect Russia from nukes so a counter strike shouldnt worry them if they believe their own BS. So yeah they should be advocating for using nukes.
My tinfoil theory is that the Russian elite is divided between an unconditional surrender group and a conditional surrender group. The goal of those who want to surrender conditionally is to set the clock back to the status quo before the SMO. They are a delusional bunch of morons and the ones most guilty of living in a parallel universe. They don't get that events have left that world far behind and neither the Russian people or the enemies of the Russian people will allow a return to the pre Feb 24 2022 state of affairs. As a matter of fact the only way to get Minks 3 is to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield and panic the US into agreeing to set the clock back in order to prevent a total Russian victory. But the mobilization of society, the economy plus the purging of the elite required to get that far would signal total war to the West, and that is what these cuckolded cockroaches want to avoid. They are trying to signal that they are ready to talk, not that they are ready to fight even more.
The unconditional surrender group is much more realistic and they look forward to dismembering russia and seeing their rivals in the other group on trial at Hauge. I think this is where Arbamovich, Chubias, Nabiullina and Shoigu are at the minimum. Yes Shoigu. He wants to be the president of his native oblast after it declares independence and presumably grabs up some surrounding Russian territory and looks forward to Russia being dismembered. Some readers probably remember me making the tentative assertion that the page of the leaks about Russian MoD giving NATO heads ups about missile strikes is true. Well check this out:
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17313
𝘔𝘐6 𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘮𝘪𝘵𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘖𝘧𝘧𝘪𝘤𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘗𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘪𝘥𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘎𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘭 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘧𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘳𝘮𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘢𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘬𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘵𝘰𝘯 𝘣𝘰𝘮𝘣𝘴 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘪𝘧𝘪𝘦𝘥 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘈𝘳𝘮𝘦𝘥 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘜𝘬𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘉𝘢𝘬𝘩𝘮𝘶𝘵. 𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘴𝘩 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘵 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘥𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘴𝘰 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘰𝘺𝘦𝘥 𝘥𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘪𝘳 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘴.
That post was made at 1030 am Ukrainian time yesterday from the Ukrainians at the resident page. And than:
𝘐𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘰𝘳𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘦 𝘱𝘶𝘣𝘭𝘪𝘴𝘩𝘦𝘥 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘴𝘩 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘪𝘯𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘷𝘺 𝘣𝘰𝘮𝘣𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘱𝘰𝘴𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘈𝘳𝘮𝘦𝘥 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘤𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘜𝘬𝘳𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘪𝘯 𝘉𝘢𝘬𝘩𝘮𝘶𝘵.
https://t.me/rezident_ua/17327
That one was made at about 9pm. The post doesn't point it out and gloat like I would have about such a crazy accurate call but the Russians bombed the shit out of the Ukrainian positions in Bakhmut with the exact bombs mentioned in the first post. That is yet more evidence that direct sabotage and the most straightforward type of treason is rampant amongst the MoD higher ups. And that level of treason is indicative of people who havent the slightest stake in the future of Russia.
Many of the major figures of this unconditional surrender faction live outside Russia now but they still have a long reach and many, many assets in Russia. Also the other group that wants conditional surrender doesn't realise how dangerous and determined they are. They would actually prefer to think this group doesn't exist at all.
I see a parallel between what Putin, et al. thought would happen with the SMO and what the neocons believed would happen in the second Iraq War. With regard to the latter, the neocons (encouraged by Ahmed Chalabi and his cohort) assured the American public that the war would be limited, American troops would be out of Iraq within six months, and that the bill would be paid by captured Iraqi oil infrastructure. Thus, Rumsfeld's insistence - against the advice of General Zinni and others - on an invasion force that proved insufficient to occupy the country when the Americans were not welcomed as liberators as promised and things did not turn out as planned.
By the same token, there was no quick collapse of the AFU and no popular uprising against Zelensky's (iy) (yy) government. As you have pointed out, the AFU has dug in and the war is taking on early twentieth century trench warfare properties.
As an aside, what is your take on Col. Doug Macgregor's continued predictions of an imminent Ukrainian collapse? As he seems to be wrong consistently in his predictions, I question from where he is getting his information and what role he is playing by taking this position.
Excellent piece.
A couple of spitballed thoughts in response:
1. It seemed for a little while that the globohomo media was hoping to goad Russia to use tactical nukes within Ukraine; that would give the media the perfect opportunity to show dead women/babies/whatever and call for Putin's overthrow as "evil man Nazi dictator", and given Russia's beyond horrendous PR abilities, it seems like the smear would be quite successful in galvanizing the world against him.
Therefore if Putin were forced to escalate to nukes out of desperation at losing, under this logic, would it be a better *strategic* decision for him to surprise launch at the Western decision-making cities - D.C. and London? But then we have global nuclear war on our hands and God help us all...
2. One of the arguments I have heard banded about on the 5D chess "Putin Amazing" is that Russia just wants to keep globohomo bogged down militarily while they pursue de-dollarization and other economic warfare measures. If BRIC and Saudi de-dollarize, would that then cause destabilization within America itself? Could that be their intent?
I don't buy this argument, as Russia could both pursue that economic warfare strategy *and* attempt to win militarily (if it was competent and able to do so; sending endless waves to die in frontal assaults on Bakhmut seems retarded any way one cuts it).
Fighting the windmills! The issue with Russia shills is that the origin of their malaise is mental, not physical. It's akin to arguing with Christians over the existence of the Jewish god while all they want is a sky daddy. The fat & stupid American "right-wingers" desperately want to believe in Santa Claus. Putin's juice is an aphrodisiac to them. The real way of arguing otherwise would be bringing them back to reality in a harsh way, such as via another Ukrainian victory. (Beating people up works wonders anyway - this would be the recipe for a reunification of Eastern Slavs under Moscow, too, I'll admit that much. Women didn't shit test as much when they could get their teeth knocked off.)
> "Warfare has once again evolved due to new technologies that make maneuver in the open exceedingly difficult thanks to satellites, drones, precision missiles, that sort of thing."
This is a mistake. The question should be raised - why Russia started the war with no UAVs at all, while having 8 years+ to prepare? If there is no good defense against the drones - why not make them yourself? Those would be of great help in the advance beyond the Dnieper through Kherson... Oh wait, the Russians explicitly abandoned their offensive there, even though the Ukrainian defence collapsed back in March 2022. Or, should I say, _because_ the Ukrainians collapsed? Is it so hard to believe that Putin is an American puppet ordered to demilitarise Russia?
> "But, again, they clearly believe that this was their best chance of fighting a war with Russia"
Not necessarily. It could also be argued that the main objective of both "sides" is killing East Slavic men. Now, that campaign is being conducted splendidly.
>"if the goal of the SMO is the genocide of the entire male Ukrainian population, as many pro-Russian commentators seem to think that it is"
It's hilarious how they have changed their tune. Because the war started with the Russians explicitly forbidden to bomb Ukrainian concentrations of forces, trying to negotiate with them instead. Still, even such war heroes as Strelkov do not condone a genocide of the Ukrainians because true nationalists consider them their brainwashed kin - but of course, we're talking about so-called "pro-Russian" Americans - who are most likely homosexual and non-White anyway.
To this day I still can't understand why Sumy, Chernigov and Kharkov are not touched after the initial retreat. The result is that:
1) Pre-war Russian territory is shelled daily, with destruction of buildings and infrastructure, and dead and wounded
2) The Banderites can concentrate all their manpower in the Donbass and the Zaporozhye.
3) They were also given time to fortify the whole border, which was not fortified previously.
Instead of that highly negative for Russia outcome, they could have maintained another front where Ukraine didn't have 8 years of fortifications and minefields, and advanced from the AFU's rear. And yet...
<blockquote>Russia could, in theory, start dropping bombs on Ukrainian politicians, for example. </blockquote>
Another headscratcher.
Let's say sending a missile to pay Zelensky a visit would be frowned upon internationally so he is off-limits.
But why are Budanov, Zaluzhny, etc. also off-limits? On top of it all, those scumbags 100% deserve to be vaporized to begin with. How many war crimes have the Ukrainian army and intelligence agencies committed? Which they didn't even need to commit if they were purely defending the country. Why send HIMARS anti-personnel rounds at bus stops in Donetsk, Alchevsk, etc., at hospitals in Ilovaisk, at evacuating civilians in Kherson, etc. etc.? And these are just a few of a very, very long list of examples...
Taking them out would also help the war, because they appear to be competent, and it will not be easy to replace them.
It can be done within minutes of the Russian political leadership ordering it, and yet...
<blockquote>No, seriously, they are BanderaNazis aren’t they? And the only good BanderaNAZIFASCISTUKROP!!! is a dead one, right?</blockquote>
There has been very little actually demonstrated desire to seriously go after the BanderaNazis other than at the lowest levels on the ground. If this was a serious objective, you would think that any time there is a Bandera march somewhere in Ukraine, it would receive an Iskander, and anyone captured with Nazi tattoos and other Nazi paraphernalia on them would be executed. I am quite certain that is exactly what the Soviets would have done if they had the current technological capabilities. And yet...
Reminds me, I calculated about two weeks ago possible losses of Ukrainians over a year, almost the period the not-war is running.
I took, maybe a very conservative 300 killed Ukrainians a day as average, based on the Russian MOD robot, who announces numbers, and arrived at ~120.000 dead in a year.
I leave it up to speculation for the ratio of the Russian side, but even if I take 2:1 ratio, that still leaves 60.000+ dead Russians, and I think this is too low tbh.
"In every battle there comes a time when both sides consider themselves beaten, then he who continues the attack wins." -- General Ulysses S. Grant
Really? They put everything on knocking out the Kiev leadership in one blow and they had no contingency plan for failing to achieve that?
Yeah perhaps that's true. The results are certainly consistent with that conclusion.
"So why then attack fortified positions in the Donbass head on again and again?"
Well, the positions aren't being attacked exactly "head-on", but more by slow attrition. Whether this is out of necessity because of low manpower, or by plan to minimize casualties, this approach may well be a strategy that the Ukro-NATOs weren't expecting. Fortified positions might have bloody sea walls upon which waves of massed attackers would break themselves, thus producing great Russian casualties. But nibbling away at the Ukrainian fortifications as is actually happening might well be a strategy to nullify the eight-year NATO strategy, not to mention annoying the impatient by an insufficient display of action and derring-do.
One thing seems to be inarguable: whatever might actually be behind the pace of "progress", slow and steady seems to be driving nearly everyone crazy.
The whole false dichotomy (anyone who doesn't think RF is 'failing' is a '5D blogger') is Yank-level sophomoric twaddle, bro. It's literally Reddit-tier.
Put simply: the entrenchments in the vicinity of Chasov Yar and Donetsk weren't constructed with the RF military in mind; they were built while Ukraine was trying to destroy the independence movement in Donbas and Luhansk. They were bastions form which Ukrainian forces could shell the rebels (most of whom were Russophones).
Almost a decade later, Russia decided that diplomacy had failed and that it had to actively defend ethnic Russians.
The fortifications were 'known knowns' - anyone with an internet connection could get a 10cm/px aerial showing each entrenchment in detail. It was perhaps half a day's work for any competent GIS analyst.
Anyway... my assessment is that RF does not especially want the whole of Ukraine: west of the Dniepr it is an impoverished shithole that is entirely dependent on Western aid; the largest 'industry' is GOVERNMENT (i.e., assorted bullshit artists and parasites).
The Eeeevil Rooooskies don't have a Yanklish war doctrine that revels in unnecessary civilian casualties - especially if those casualties are ethnic Russians.
Hence, no wide-area bombing with 'dumb bombs'. It has/had nothing to do with air defence, because Ukraine's AD has been destroyed already.
The other 'dimension' (if there MUST be 5, let's enumerate them) is that the strategy in the early part of the SMO did not utilise advanced standoff weapons (like Khinzal) because they did not want to involuntarily share technology with the West.
That changed a bit when Surovikin was appointed, and the RF showed the world that it could destroy all the electricity transmission network of Ukraine, but were choosing not to. The RF only ever hit ONE 750kW substation - and only did it once - but by hitting 330kW substations with metronomic regularity they showed that they had the capacity to turn the lights off permanently.
The RF deployed almost no Penitsillin counter-battery radar systems until December 2022 - it deployed some Zooparks, but those are 'known knowns'. Once Penitsillin was deployed, destruction of M777s tripled - as did destruction of Ukrainian counter-battery assets.
As an aside: it says a lot that there has only been 2 stories - from MARCH 2023 - about Ukrainian destruction of RH Zooparks, but nothing about Penitsillin. It's typical breathless "Ghost of Kiev" stuff that gets regurgitated by CNN for the Redditors. I guess it will help Reznikov and his coterie bilk some cash out of the US, pretending that they've got captured Russian tech.
On the flipside, there are a couple of West-provided AN/TP-Q destroyed EVERY WEEK.
You also have a strange notion that 'attrition' involves massed-infantry assaults - like at Verdun or Ypres, where artillery was used to 'soften up' opposition fortifications, then stupid young men traipsed across open ground to discover that the opposition fortifications hadn't been softened.
Russia - from what I've been able to glean from my 5D VR headset - would rather keep blowing the shit out of a fortification until the defenders are either dead or half-mad with PTSD and sleep deprivation.
Taking a city when you think of the civilian inhabitants as co-ethnics, strikes me as really quite hard. That's why recently the RF has been doing lots of reconnaissance regarding civilian population disposition - and if the civvies have all evacuated the RF is letting slip the new, standoff, guided FABs (e.g., in Avdiivka).
I hold no broef for the RF - although I have been impressed by VVP since 2000 when he gathered the oligarchs and told them to pull their horns in. At that point BB and his mate 'Badri' (Patarkatsishvili) left for Londongrad and immediately became 90% poorer (but still billionaires) and Berezovsky started agitating abut Ukraine.
This shit in the Pale of Settlement didn't start in 2022, or 2014, or 2004 - or 1991 or 1927 or 1917 or 1905.
It started in the 1480s, with the unmasking of the Judaising Heresy.
For 'those people', RUSSIA IS AMALEK.
Nuland is one of 'those people' - I call them "Khazarim" because they're not Ashkenazim (who hail from the lower Rhineland).
But that's a story for another installment - a 9D tale of treachery that spans half a millennium, with a lietmotif of treachery and racial hatred OF Russia and Russians, BY hovel-dwelling Khazarim.
Mr Rolo, I would love to post the translated transcript of the Fenenko interview, but there is one problem, with close to 3000 words, the comment is rejected as too long.
Took me about 6 hours, and then the bummer.
Any way to solve this?
Although the fighting is taking place in Ukraine, the war is not only about Ukraine. The main objective seems to be to overthrow the USA as Global Hegemon, hence all the buddying up to China and the paeans to 'multi-polarity'.
This is succeeding remarkably rapidly. All the wily Oriental and African gentlemen now genuflect to the east and north rather than to the west, and have transferred their expectations of handouts there.
Russia does need to avoid defeat in Ukraine, else all the world's beggars and bootlickers will transfer their portable affections back to the Americans, but it does not need rapid and decisive military success. Cautious slow relatively low intensity fighting is working well enough to use up the military and moral capability of NATO, without risking nuclear annihilation. Americans are notoriously impatient and are already dismayed by their lack of success, and starting to think a naval war against China would go better for them (until their fleets and aircraft meet the Russian super-missiles which are now being agreed to supply to China). President Putin's visit to his generals on the southern front was probably to pre-empt any excuses about lack of troops or resources compelling them to abandon this vital territory. As long as the Americans can push Ukrainian troops forward in ill-considered attacks, the Russians will probably be able to keep destroying them until exhaustion sets in and despite the neo-con ethnic crazies desire for more conflict with Russia, events in Ukraine subside into a messy stalemate, like Syria. This will be a 'winning draw' for Russia, with possibilities for later local political and military exploitation, and confirmation of larger geopolitical gains for Russia at the expense of the USA.