Expect Ukrainian Breakthroughs Along the Overstretched Russian Lines

I usually stay away from making any predictions and just report on the most obvious stuff. This sets me apart from the 5D dunce bloggers who constantly make wild predictions about huge cauldrons, massive traps and so on that never materialize. Few bloggers actually just report and analyze what is happening and not what they hope will happen, so I figured I’d claim this niche and stay above the shum of disinformation and speculation. But, this time, I thought I’d try a prediction myself because the situation as it is unfolding seems rather obvious to me.

Before we go any further though, here, again, are the assumptions that I am working with.

Russia’s offensive campaign wasn’t fast enough. Ukraine has had time to mobilize its reserves through a mass conscription effort over the last 6 months. They’ve also got enough weapons from NATO, clearly, to be able to use these fresh soldiers in a meaningful capacity. They now also enjoy a huge numbers advantage over the Russians. And, they’ve proven that massing troops and equipment and attacking weak points along the overstretched and undermanned Russian line works. Russian artillery superiority is not enough to stop them.

So, the question then becomes, “where will they attack next?”

I think that there is a very distinct possibility that the the entirety of the Kharkov region will have to abandoned. So far, the Russians hold the river. But, it is unclear whether they can hold it for long. Pessimist Russian analysis channels predict the surrender of the North-East region. Seeing as Ukraine proved that they could overrun Balakleya, Izyum and push back the Russians to the state border, it’s very possible that they will be able to replicate their results here in short order as well.

I have been impressed by Southfront’s reporting on the situation. No 5D chess anywhere in their reports. Just the facts as they see them unfolding on the ground.

I checked in to see what they had to say about the sit-rep in Ukraine now and found that they too were saying that the Ukrainians were massing at various points along the line and that, presumably, a coordinated attack could be expected soon. Not all of the attack groups are expected to breakthrough, mind you, but some will simply tie down Russian soldiers and prevent them from reinforcing the point in the line where the actual breakthrough attack is being planned.

From Southfront:

Amid the recent successes in the Kharkiv region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are pulling up additional forces, preparing for offensive operations on all front lines in the eastern and southern regions of the country.

Another large-scale Ukrainian offensive is expected in the Zaporozhye region. So far, the front line remains unchanged. A significant escalation is reported in the Ugledar area, where Ukrainian troops are pulling reserves to the village of Vasilevka and are attempting to attack Nikolskoe.

Ukrainian artillery has recently been activated in the Dokuchaevsky region. This may also be a preparation for an upcoming offensive on the DPR position.

The DPR and Russian forces deployed in the Donetsk area may also came under large-scale attack. The Ukrainian military continues to pull forces into the areas of Maryinka and Peski.

Fierce fighting continues in Maryinka. Neither side has been able to declare full control of the settlement for several months. Peski is under the control of the DPR, from where they continue their offensive in the western direction. To the northeast of the village, Ukrainian units recently left their positions west of the Donetsk airport runway. Fighting continues between the airport and the ring road.

Despite the difficult situation on other front lines, Russian-led forces continue to break through the enemy’s defenses in the Bakhmut region. Servicemen of the Wagner group are very active in the area.

During the offensive from Kodema, the assault groups took control of Nikolaevka and Nikolaevka 2. They continue to move towards Otradovka and storm Zaitsevo from several directions.

Allied forces also advanced in Soledar. Russian assault units occupied a section of the highway between Bakhmutsky and Pokrovsky. Meanwhile, DPR units took control of another district in the north of the city. The front line now runs along Kosmonavtov Street.

There have been no significant changes on the northern Donbass front lines.

Fighting continues north of Svyatogorsk, the city is in a gray zone.

Ukrainian assault units attempt to attack Liman, so far unsuccessfully.

Some advance of Ukrainian forces near the village of Belogorovka was reported. Neither side has full control over the village. Ukrainian groups are advancing into the forest southwest of Kremennaya, where fighting continues.

In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces have reached the state border. The front line was stabilized along the Oskol River. Fighting continues in the city of Kupyansk. The Russian army is strengthening its defense, Ukrainian forces continue reconnaissance by combat and are trying to force the Oskol river.

Positional battles continue in the south of Ukraine. In the Kherson region Ukrainian forces attempted to attack in the area of Davydov Brod, but were stopped by Russian units. The Ukrainian command is also pulling reserves in the region. New offensive attempts are expected.

I have no reason to believe that the attack, when and where it comes, won’t be successful. Ukraine enjoys a significant numbers advantage and has used NATO’s superior intel to hit weak points in the overstretched Russian line before.

I won’t predict where exactly the planned breakthrough attack will occur at this point. But I have a feeling that the same internet autists who figured out the attack on Kharkov months in advance, and ahead of the Russian MOD, apparently, are hard on the case, and I’ll share what their speculations are in the coming days, if I think they’re onto something.

Analyzing what Ukraine will do is easier than trying to figure out what Russia will do. This is partially because of all the smartphone-using troops on the Ukrainian side, something that we do not see as much from the Russian side - mostly from the militia units.

Also, Russia has been on the defensive since mid-summer, when they realized that they didn’t have enough men for large-scale offensives and switched to trying to defend the gains that they already had. Without reinforcements, or a reorganized concentration of troops in one section, the Russian side almost certainly won’t be going on any large scale offensives.

Therefore, knowing what the Russian side can’t do and what the Ukrainian side plans to do, all we have to ask ourselves is whether or not we believe that the upcoming Ukrainian attack will be successful or not.

As I said above, I believe that there are plenty of reasons to believe that the Ukrainians can pull off another breakthrough using the same tactics that they used in Kharkov. This is because nothing has fundamentally changed since then. The contact line hasn’t gotten significantly shorter. Nor have there been large deployments of reinforcements from the Russian side, which relies on trickling in reinforcements to plug gaps and not much more.

Russia’s recruitment efforts are conducted by offering high-paying short-term contracts to encourage voluntary enlistment. This allows them to make up for losses in personnel, but not to create entire new divisions and armies. To do that, you’d need mobilization of one kind or another, like what Ukraine has been doing.

So, now that I have laid out my logic, I feel confident in predicting another Ukrainian breakthrough attempt along the line. And, I believe that they stand a very good chance of succeeding, again.

Furthermore, this is an opinion shared by many in the patriotic community. They have been warning about this scenario for months now. Having seen with our own eyes how overstretched the Russians are, I see no reason to believe that the same thing won’t happen again in short order.

If and when it does, I can only wonder what the reaction will be in Russia. One slap to the face sobered many at home up. People realized that the MOD was lying and that the current face-saving explanation for the “strategic withdrawal” from Kharkov doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. A second slap on the face will only lead to a far stronger reaction from within Russian society. Russians are going to start flipping out at their government. I don’t think Putin will catch much flak, though - he’s much too popular and has never used weasel-words or legalese to try and explain the situation in Ukraine. He’s seen as the guy that drew a line in the sand and actually kept his word to do good on Russia’s warnings to NATO and Ukraine.

No, the ire will be directed at saboteurs in the political class and incompetents in the MOD. Each setback in the war serves to only strengthen the non-system patriotic bloc within Russia. There’s the silver lining that people always look for and why I remain optimistic about the whole situation, regardless of what happens next.

I want the firings and purgings to start up again.