After 2 and half years, why have the lines barely moved? Ukraine has been "crumbling" for 2 and a half years. NATO weapons are raining down on Russian territory, killing Russian civilians. Russia has been "about to launch the knockout offensive" for 2 years. Ukraine still counter attacks every day after "losiing half a million men." Donetsk has been shelled every single day , 365 days a year, since 2014. This doesn't look like Russia is "winning" to me. It looks like Putin is looking for a way to declare "victory" and get out.
It's depressing as hell, but Rurik looks right. I wish it wasn't true, but this thing does look pretty fishy to me...
For years I've wanted to purchase a billboard or full page age that read:
WHAT IF I AM WRONG
Think about that - long and hard. The fight you had with your spouse, the job you quit, the list is truly infinite. But does anybody actually stop and consider if they might actually be wrong? I personally do it all the time from the letter I send (reading it from other perspectives including the recipients) to giving instructions and considering possible outcomes before implementing it. I guess it's because I've made so many mistakes and or been wrong more times than I would like to admit, that I am now also wiser.
All this being said, has the writer considered if he could possibly be wrong? What he wrote, like Marc also stated, is extremely depressing, if accurate. I have read and consumed hundreds of articles on Substack and elsewhere. Several months ago I sensed a pattern amongst people like Ritter and McGregor, Sachs and Mearsheimer. How is it humanly possible all the supposed experts and academics (common denominator - all ex-government employee's) have never once opinioned any predictions regarding the plethora of possibilities and outcomes? We now reside in a society where no one is able to keep their opinions to themselves and yet these people say nothing? All they do is rehash what any informed listener is certainly already well aware of. But when they use juvenile idioms such as stupid and insane to describe the USA's
behavior regarding both Russia and Israel, it reeks of controlled opposition. How did the Judge survive his sexual assault allegations (with men mind you) while everyone else's careers were destroyed i.e., Charlie Rose, Matt Lauer? Are we really expected to believe those in charge in DC are just really, really, DUMB as Sachs is always saying? Therefore I put no credence in anything any of them say, however - where can you obtain the truth when it also ceases to exist?
In conclusion, perhaps the writer may (or may not) agree, Putin is clearly more intelligent than perhaps all of Washington combined. Listen to how articulate his speeches are in comparison to Trump (hold on, I just fell out of my chair) et al. Therefore is it not fair to say this is nothing more than a ploy? I noticed the writer never once mentioned that Russia has the most sophisticated artillery in the world. Is Putin just sitting back and waiting while the USA and NATO to continue to be depleted, before than moving in for the final kill? We know for fact (I live in the USA) our military is as it all time lowest recruitment level since WWII. And the caliber of soldiers is even worse. 70% obesity rate - the USA is so desperate they not only allowed gays but trans people. Russia will truly have a field day!
I agree with the writer and the number of lies being spewed. In one breathe they claimed they are literally kidnapping men off the streets in Ukraine but yet in the exact same video they say Ukraine is prospering enormously - bars are clubs are filled to capacity and new restaurants are opening all over. It would seem to me, all you would have to do is enter any club if you needed to actually force men into the military and NOT drag them out of their cars instead. So there is no more truth . . .
" Listen to how articulate his speeches are in comparison to Trump (hold on, I just fell out of my chair) et al. "
That is Putin's strongest point and one that many admirers of him make. He appears to very frank and truthful in his public appearances and he is obviously very intelligent but it is very obvious that he made a major mistake with the SMO. OK it can be blamed on bad intel but that only goes to illustrate that he himself is isolated and out of touch with the real state of affairs in Ukraine a former Soviet state on the border of Russia. Being smart is not enough , the teams of advisors and intel are critical. Having blundered into a major war I am nor surprised if Putin is looking for a way out instead of escalation. Does he really want to go to a full war footing with NATO? Is this shithole of mafia corruption the Donbass worth the possible destruction and death of millions of Russians and those on the other side? Is it worth it? That is the question that Putin must answer because as soon as this war leaves the borders of Ukraine there will literally be hell to pay for everyone.
Why do you assume Putin will fail? How do we know with absolute unequivocal certainty what Rurik stated is any more accurate (or not) than what others are saying albeit the articles he quoted? Like politics, war is about superlative strategy. Is it really hard to fathom Putins sitting back while everyone else is doing the opposite? Is is fair to say sending 4 war ships of which one was a nuclear submarine is doing nothing? Are we really to believe they didn't also leave behind a few gifts? It appears to me he's corralling the enemy. The most important question no one is asking is what this war is truly about? What has Russia done that we are now on the precipice of WWIII?
In my opinion this is all about confining Russia in order to prevent Putin from moving on to the Middle East which is what BOTH these wars are about. The fight, race and eventual control of both shipping corridors. The IMEC and BRI.
I am not asuming that Putin will lose or win , but what does "winning " look like in the real world? This talk of taking control of the worlds waterways is sheer fantasy when Russia gave up Snake Island , lost the flagship of the Black Sea fleet and half the fleet. What Hopium are you smoking, LOL!!!!!
Of all the zanoners, escobar has turned out to be the most disgusting little shitty grifter, completely selling out his street cred as 'international roving correspondent and geopol analyst extraordinaire' for a chance to slavishly worship goddess (yes, he does call her that) Zakharova's sandals. With this piece, his next dinner is assured. Your move, Hinkle, step up to the plate, boy!
From a Jamestown Foundation article about the Dagestani attacks, with some links that would probably be useful (Rurik, would you do a deep dive on that totally Slavic land of Dagestan?):
As a result, the Kremlin has lost control of the narrative about the Dagestani events and other issues. Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Roskosmos, for example, says that blaming Ukraine or NATO for Islamist actions “lead us to big problems” by distracting the authorities from the real threats (T.me/Rogozin_do, June 23). Commentator Aleksandr Rodnyansky argues that the events in Dagestan prove that “the thread of Islamism is greater today than ever before” (T.me/alexander_rodnyansky, June 24). Journalist Kirill Shulika says that the attacks demonstrate that Moscow does not know how to fight this growing threat because the government is focusing on the wrong issues (Rosbalt, June 24). And observer Aleksandr Baunov contends that all this shows that Moscow is losing control over Dagestan and possibly more (T.me/baunovhaus, June 23).
The most thorough critique has come from former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov. He argues that the developments in Dagestan signal that Putin’s claims about pacifying the Caucasus are total fictions—thus depriving the Kremlin leader of a major reason Russians have supported him (T.me/mozhemobyasnit, June 24). Gallyamov adds that few people will believe the regime’s claims that Ukraine or NATO are involved in Dagestan, or that the Kremlin is blameless for what has happened, just as they now question many of Putin’s statements. “As for the Islamists, with their attempts to stop modernity, turn back time, and recreate medieval archaism in the country,” he continues, “the authorities themselves are creating a favorable environment for them. When domestic violence is declared to be almost the main spiritual bond, is it any wonder that people who practice it … feel more and more confident? They gain an appetite and begin to make greater and greater claims, demanding that the country live by their rules. Here United Russia members can put aside the party charter and pick up the Quran with a machine gun.”
Three other analysts, one Polish and two Russian, earlier provided support for what Moscow commentators are now saying. First, in a new book, For Putin and for Sharia: Dagestani Muslims and the Islamic State (DeKalb, 2023), Polish anthropologist Iwona Kaliszewska argues that Dagestan is already “the freest republic in Russia” because “decolonization based on religion has already occurred there” (Kavkaz.Realii, December 8, 2023). Second, Moscow sociologist Evgeny Varshaver says that the preconditions were laid by the Putin regime itself, which has reduced the salience of nationality and allowed the various nations of Dagestan to come together on the basis of religion. This is a major reason why they act as Muslims even more than as Dagestanis, let alone as Avars or Dargins (Nemoskva.net, November 28, 2023). Third, Moscow lawyer Dmitry Krasnov asserts that more than anywhere else in Russia, Dagestan is the place where the preconditions for mass protests are now in place (see EDM, November 21, 2017; Mk.ru, November 9, 2023; Trtrussian.com, February 10).
Worse yet, I read that China is selling weapons to Ukraine.
If Russia and China had a serious alliance, or even a confluence of interests, China would not be selling weapons to Ukraine while Ukraine is in an active state of war with Russia. This says to me China is downplaying its partnership with Russia.
What really galls me is it seems the US State Department neocons have outplayed the Russian strategists. Putin thought he could bludgeon Ukraine into not joining NATO and it almost worked. But the neocons pulled the chestnuts out of the fire and got Ukraine to ignore its own best interests and continue with the war. Putin had no backup strategy for if his bluff failed. He apparently didn't anticipate the West intervening directly to make sure the war continued. Which again says the neocons outplayed Putin, which still galls me no end.
China is absolutely shit-scared of Western sanctions . China is a massive importer of EVERYTHING. They will also never support Russia as they are playing their own game , they ARE Chinese remember. Only when Xi goes to war with Taiwan will they do some direct cooperation (maybe) because then the full sanctions will hit and they will have nothing to lose.
Great comment. Would you speculate that if Russia asserted itself more strongly, China would be more inclined to directly ally itself with Russia? Seems to me, China is not going to put itself in the position of shoring up a faltering combatant.
I should repeat myself that I support Russia because it represents a multipolar security arrangement. The last thing I want is for the neocon establishment to predominate in the US government. The neocons hate Americans as much as they hate Russians.
This is unrelated to your post, Rolo, but I am in Belarus and I've never been so angry. So much was taken from us. Here is a beautiful city full of Europeans. No oligarchs. No homeless shitting in the streets. Even the poverty of Belarus is nothing compared to the horrors we see in our countryside and buildings. The sheer emptiness of the culture. The ugliness of the buildings. It was taken from us.
I'm just so annoyed that when people travel to Europe, their lack of training in racism means they don't process "why" Europe is so beautiful and pleasing to them. The ignorant uckers come here and go, "ah, Europe is old, if only America wasn't so new!" or "This is because they have a mixed economy!"
They can't stop and think what are the real causes.
If I could, I would force every single Slav in Belarus to briefly stay in our major cities, so they could appreciate what they have. I would force every american, likewise, to go to Belarus and make them tell me what they notice about the people and buildings.
Still, some ideological commissar or blinded subject would give some shit excuse about the cost of racism or the price of democracy .
"President Putin isn’t a “madman”, “monster”, or “mastermind” like many imagine that he is, but is a consummate pragmatist at least as how he sees himself and is therefore unlikely to ever do anything that could be spun as emotional or radical. He always takes a long time before making major decisions, with the proof being how long it took for him to commence Russia’s aerial intervention in Syria and the ongoing special operation, usually waiting till the last possible moment."
McGregor claims that Putin badly miscalculated at the start of the SMO, but does seem to believe Ukraine was mobilizing a large NATO equipped & trained army with the intention of taking back Crimea at the onset of 2022.
It may be true that Putin grossly miscalculated, but I think the overarching issue here is that the capabilities of the Russian military fall well short of what's needed to do much more than hold on to the limited gains it has achieved thus far.
Even if Putin were to resign and some belligerent big-mouth like Medvedev were to come into power, i doubt that Russia would achieve much more than it already has.
Agreed but also the increasing attacks inside Russia are impossible to defend effectively and he knows that. Escalation will be met with escalation , are the Russian people willing to accept incoming every day and increasing in volume and range, is that what they have signed up for , is it worth it?
To ferret out what's true or not true during wartime, watch the maps daily. Ukraine's rate of attrition for combat personnel is unsustainable. But who knows, "“If war were arithmetic, then mathematicians would rule the world.”― George R.R. Martin
The fundamental fact is Ukraine cannot sustain itself. With combat personnel, with vehicles, with aircraft, with ammunition, they are unable to produce the items necessary to win by themselves and as you know, it’s a pretty fickle world.
Sure, but as they continue to succeed their backers feel more confident supplying them with more. If Moscow actually enforced a red line the situation might have turned out different. But say NATO announced plans to put nukes in Ukraine tomorrow. I feel like Putin would just claim the moral high ground and do nothing.
Are there many people in Russian writing in Russian as well as you Rurik I think not. I think you'd be more popular if some of your stuff was written in Russian at least Rolo gave us the two languages of his book. With my ear on the ground here it is true that most Russian people aren't that stupid and are asking themselves now what has 2+ years given them??? August always seem like a time for change in Russia Gorbachev, Wagner bye bye etc. So let's see what happens at the end if the Summer.
The headline of this video caught my eye "Putin runs out if allies as new FSB generation turn on him" by Mark Galeotti but I admit I haven't heard of Mark before or watched it all the way through just snippets:
After 2 and half years, why have the lines barely moved? Ukraine has been "crumbling" for 2 and a half years. NATO weapons are raining down on Russian territory, killing Russian civilians. Russia has been "about to launch the knockout offensive" for 2 years. Ukraine still counter attacks every day after "losiing half a million men." Donetsk has been shelled every single day , 365 days a year, since 2014. This doesn't look like Russia is "winning" to me. It looks like Putin is looking for a way to declare "victory" and get out.
It's depressing as hell, but Rurik looks right. I wish it wasn't true, but this thing does look pretty fishy to me...
For years I've wanted to purchase a billboard or full page age that read:
WHAT IF I AM WRONG
Think about that - long and hard. The fight you had with your spouse, the job you quit, the list is truly infinite. But does anybody actually stop and consider if they might actually be wrong? I personally do it all the time from the letter I send (reading it from other perspectives including the recipients) to giving instructions and considering possible outcomes before implementing it. I guess it's because I've made so many mistakes and or been wrong more times than I would like to admit, that I am now also wiser.
All this being said, has the writer considered if he could possibly be wrong? What he wrote, like Marc also stated, is extremely depressing, if accurate. I have read and consumed hundreds of articles on Substack and elsewhere. Several months ago I sensed a pattern amongst people like Ritter and McGregor, Sachs and Mearsheimer. How is it humanly possible all the supposed experts and academics (common denominator - all ex-government employee's) have never once opinioned any predictions regarding the plethora of possibilities and outcomes? We now reside in a society where no one is able to keep their opinions to themselves and yet these people say nothing? All they do is rehash what any informed listener is certainly already well aware of. But when they use juvenile idioms such as stupid and insane to describe the USA's
behavior regarding both Russia and Israel, it reeks of controlled opposition. How did the Judge survive his sexual assault allegations (with men mind you) while everyone else's careers were destroyed i.e., Charlie Rose, Matt Lauer? Are we really expected to believe those in charge in DC are just really, really, DUMB as Sachs is always saying? Therefore I put no credence in anything any of them say, however - where can you obtain the truth when it also ceases to exist?
In conclusion, perhaps the writer may (or may not) agree, Putin is clearly more intelligent than perhaps all of Washington combined. Listen to how articulate his speeches are in comparison to Trump (hold on, I just fell out of my chair) et al. Therefore is it not fair to say this is nothing more than a ploy? I noticed the writer never once mentioned that Russia has the most sophisticated artillery in the world. Is Putin just sitting back and waiting while the USA and NATO to continue to be depleted, before than moving in for the final kill? We know for fact (I live in the USA) our military is as it all time lowest recruitment level since WWII. And the caliber of soldiers is even worse. 70% obesity rate - the USA is so desperate they not only allowed gays but trans people. Russia will truly have a field day!
I agree with the writer and the number of lies being spewed. In one breathe they claimed they are literally kidnapping men off the streets in Ukraine but yet in the exact same video they say Ukraine is prospering enormously - bars are clubs are filled to capacity and new restaurants are opening all over. It would seem to me, all you would have to do is enter any club if you needed to actually force men into the military and NOT drag them out of their cars instead. So there is no more truth . . .
" Listen to how articulate his speeches are in comparison to Trump (hold on, I just fell out of my chair) et al. "
That is Putin's strongest point and one that many admirers of him make. He appears to very frank and truthful in his public appearances and he is obviously very intelligent but it is very obvious that he made a major mistake with the SMO. OK it can be blamed on bad intel but that only goes to illustrate that he himself is isolated and out of touch with the real state of affairs in Ukraine a former Soviet state on the border of Russia. Being smart is not enough , the teams of advisors and intel are critical. Having blundered into a major war I am nor surprised if Putin is looking for a way out instead of escalation. Does he really want to go to a full war footing with NATO? Is this shithole of mafia corruption the Donbass worth the possible destruction and death of millions of Russians and those on the other side? Is it worth it? That is the question that Putin must answer because as soon as this war leaves the borders of Ukraine there will literally be hell to pay for everyone.
Why do you assume Putin will fail? How do we know with absolute unequivocal certainty what Rurik stated is any more accurate (or not) than what others are saying albeit the articles he quoted? Like politics, war is about superlative strategy. Is it really hard to fathom Putins sitting back while everyone else is doing the opposite? Is is fair to say sending 4 war ships of which one was a nuclear submarine is doing nothing? Are we really to believe they didn't also leave behind a few gifts? It appears to me he's corralling the enemy. The most important question no one is asking is what this war is truly about? What has Russia done that we are now on the precipice of WWIII?
In my opinion this is all about confining Russia in order to prevent Putin from moving on to the Middle East which is what BOTH these wars are about. The fight, race and eventual control of both shipping corridors. The IMEC and BRI.
https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/03/the-geopolitics-of-economic-development-in-the-middle-east?lang=en¢er=middle-east
How ironic was it this took place less than a month before 10-07
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-india-saudi-eu-unveil-rail-ports-deal-g20-sidelines-white-house-official-2023-09-09/
I am not asuming that Putin will lose or win , but what does "winning " look like in the real world? This talk of taking control of the worlds waterways is sheer fantasy when Russia gave up Snake Island , lost the flagship of the Black Sea fleet and half the fleet. What Hopium are you smoking, LOL!!!!!
This guy is really the only i'm seeing who makes sense. He deserves support. He's also the only one I'm giving money to!
Of all the zanoners, escobar has turned out to be the most disgusting little shitty grifter, completely selling out his street cred as 'international roving correspondent and geopol analyst extraordinaire' for a chance to slavishly worship goddess (yes, he does call her that) Zakharova's sandals. With this piece, his next dinner is assured. Your move, Hinkle, step up to the plate, boy!
AGREED! Escobar has been a barnacle in the arse of real journalism for ever.
From a Jamestown Foundation article about the Dagestani attacks, with some links that would probably be useful (Rurik, would you do a deep dive on that totally Slavic land of Dagestan?):
As a result, the Kremlin has lost control of the narrative about the Dagestani events and other issues. Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Roskosmos, for example, says that blaming Ukraine or NATO for Islamist actions “lead us to big problems” by distracting the authorities from the real threats (T.me/Rogozin_do, June 23). Commentator Aleksandr Rodnyansky argues that the events in Dagestan prove that “the thread of Islamism is greater today than ever before” (T.me/alexander_rodnyansky, June 24). Journalist Kirill Shulika says that the attacks demonstrate that Moscow does not know how to fight this growing threat because the government is focusing on the wrong issues (Rosbalt, June 24). And observer Aleksandr Baunov contends that all this shows that Moscow is losing control over Dagestan and possibly more (T.me/baunovhaus, June 23).
The most thorough critique has come from former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov. He argues that the developments in Dagestan signal that Putin’s claims about pacifying the Caucasus are total fictions—thus depriving the Kremlin leader of a major reason Russians have supported him (T.me/mozhemobyasnit, June 24). Gallyamov adds that few people will believe the regime’s claims that Ukraine or NATO are involved in Dagestan, or that the Kremlin is blameless for what has happened, just as they now question many of Putin’s statements. “As for the Islamists, with their attempts to stop modernity, turn back time, and recreate medieval archaism in the country,” he continues, “the authorities themselves are creating a favorable environment for them. When domestic violence is declared to be almost the main spiritual bond, is it any wonder that people who practice it … feel more and more confident? They gain an appetite and begin to make greater and greater claims, demanding that the country live by their rules. Here United Russia members can put aside the party charter and pick up the Quran with a machine gun.”
Three other analysts, one Polish and two Russian, earlier provided support for what Moscow commentators are now saying. First, in a new book, For Putin and for Sharia: Dagestani Muslims and the Islamic State (DeKalb, 2023), Polish anthropologist Iwona Kaliszewska argues that Dagestan is already “the freest republic in Russia” because “decolonization based on religion has already occurred there” (Kavkaz.Realii, December 8, 2023). Second, Moscow sociologist Evgeny Varshaver says that the preconditions were laid by the Putin regime itself, which has reduced the salience of nationality and allowed the various nations of Dagestan to come together on the basis of religion. This is a major reason why they act as Muslims even more than as Dagestanis, let alone as Avars or Dargins (Nemoskva.net, November 28, 2023). Third, Moscow lawyer Dmitry Krasnov asserts that more than anywhere else in Russia, Dagestan is the place where the preconditions for mass protests are now in place (see EDM, November 21, 2017; Mk.ru, November 9, 2023; Trtrussian.com, February 10).
Interesting , thanks for that.
Worse yet, I read that China is selling weapons to Ukraine.
If Russia and China had a serious alliance, or even a confluence of interests, China would not be selling weapons to Ukraine while Ukraine is in an active state of war with Russia. This says to me China is downplaying its partnership with Russia.
What really galls me is it seems the US State Department neocons have outplayed the Russian strategists. Putin thought he could bludgeon Ukraine into not joining NATO and it almost worked. But the neocons pulled the chestnuts out of the fire and got Ukraine to ignore its own best interests and continue with the war. Putin had no backup strategy for if his bluff failed. He apparently didn't anticipate the West intervening directly to make sure the war continued. Which again says the neocons outplayed Putin, which still galls me no end.
China is absolutely shit-scared of Western sanctions . China is a massive importer of EVERYTHING. They will also never support Russia as they are playing their own game , they ARE Chinese remember. Only when Xi goes to war with Taiwan will they do some direct cooperation (maybe) because then the full sanctions will hit and they will have nothing to lose.
Great comment. Would you speculate that if Russia asserted itself more strongly, China would be more inclined to directly ally itself with Russia? Seems to me, China is not going to put itself in the position of shoring up a faltering combatant.
I should repeat myself that I support Russia because it represents a multipolar security arrangement. The last thing I want is for the neocon establishment to predominate in the US government. The neocons hate Americans as much as they hate Russians.
This is unrelated to your post, Rolo, but I am in Belarus and I've never been so angry. So much was taken from us. Here is a beautiful city full of Europeans. No oligarchs. No homeless shitting in the streets. Even the poverty of Belarus is nothing compared to the horrors we see in our countryside and buildings. The sheer emptiness of the culture. The ugliness of the buildings. It was taken from us.
I'm just so annoyed that when people travel to Europe, their lack of training in racism means they don't process "why" Europe is so beautiful and pleasing to them. The ignorant uckers come here and go, "ah, Europe is old, if only America wasn't so new!" or "This is because they have a mixed economy!"
They can't stop and think what are the real causes.
If I could, I would force every single Slav in Belarus to briefly stay in our major cities, so they could appreciate what they have. I would force every american, likewise, to go to Belarus and make them tell me what they notice about the people and buildings.
Still, some ideological commissar or blinded subject would give some shit excuse about the cost of racism or the price of democracy .
So there!
"President Putin isn’t a “madman”, “monster”, or “mastermind” like many imagine that he is, but is a consummate pragmatist at least as how he sees himself and is therefore unlikely to ever do anything that could be spun as emotional or radical. He always takes a long time before making major decisions, with the proof being how long it took for him to commence Russia’s aerial intervention in Syria and the ongoing special operation, usually waiting till the last possible moment."
https://korybko.substack.com/p/russias-response-to-ukraines-us-backed
This could be a factor in the show:
https://x.com/MakisMD/status/1805925540055949372
Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines cross the Blood Brain Barrier (BBB).
We are now starting to get solid evidence of BRAIN DAMAGE caused by COVID-19 mRNA Vaccines.
So when you get your COVID-19 Vaccine, after 3 months you get these bonuses:
+140% Mild Cognitive Impairment
+23% Alzheimer's Dementia
+68% Depression
+44% Anxiety, dissociative, stress, somatoform
+93% sleep disorders
++ sexual disorders
increased risk of psychosis within 7 days especially if you're in your 30s with only 50% chance of recovery
That starts to explain behavior in some of the COVID-19 Vaccinated.
These are massive studies, two from South Korea and one from Latvia, where doctors are still allowed to be doctors, apparently (unlike in Canada).
I wonder how Pepe became this guy he is nowadays. He seemed quite credible to me when I read some of his Afghanistan essays from back in the days.
he bragged that he works for two spook agencies during an interview so maybe that has something to do with it.
He has been bought and paid for as long as I can remember.
The South American reputation for corruption rivals that of Ukraine, but he does not have the ethnic excuse.
https://thepredatorsversusthepeople.substack.com/p/china-and-russia-the-new-horses-for
Interesting...
This interview of McGregor was just recommended to me by YT before I read this column by rolo:
https://youtu.be/iJ0hMXRWxms?si=wotAbs9moYRykdaE
McGregor claims that Putin badly miscalculated at the start of the SMO, but does seem to believe Ukraine was mobilizing a large NATO equipped & trained army with the intention of taking back Crimea at the onset of 2022.
It may be true that Putin grossly miscalculated, but I think the overarching issue here is that the capabilities of the Russian military fall well short of what's needed to do much more than hold on to the limited gains it has achieved thus far.
Even if Putin were to resign and some belligerent big-mouth like Medvedev were to come into power, i doubt that Russia would achieve much more than it already has.
Agreed but also the increasing attacks inside Russia are impossible to defend effectively and he knows that. Escalation will be met with escalation , are the Russian people willing to accept incoming every day and increasing in volume and range, is that what they have signed up for , is it worth it?
To ferret out what's true or not true during wartime, watch the maps daily. Ukraine's rate of attrition for combat personnel is unsustainable. But who knows, "“If war were arithmetic, then mathematicians would rule the world.”― George R.R. Martin
if they're at 150k dead (absolute maximum high range) that means they can keep this thing going for another 10 years.
The fundamental fact is Ukraine cannot sustain itself. With combat personnel, with vehicles, with aircraft, with ammunition, they are unable to produce the items necessary to win by themselves and as you know, it’s a pretty fickle world.
Sure, but as they continue to succeed their backers feel more confident supplying them with more. If Moscow actually enforced a red line the situation might have turned out different. But say NATO announced plans to put nukes in Ukraine tomorrow. I feel like Putin would just claim the moral high ground and do nothing.
Rapid karma?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OmNqegZ8uy4
Are there many people in Russian writing in Russian as well as you Rurik I think not. I think you'd be more popular if some of your stuff was written in Russian at least Rolo gave us the two languages of his book. With my ear on the ground here it is true that most Russian people aren't that stupid and are asking themselves now what has 2+ years given them??? August always seem like a time for change in Russia Gorbachev, Wagner bye bye etc. So let's see what happens at the end if the Summer.
The headline of this video caught my eye "Putin runs out if allies as new FSB generation turn on him" by Mark Galeotti but I admit I haven't heard of Mark before or watched it all the way through just snippets:
https://youtu.be/6f9JNhsFjWo?si=hxESWPrIy7Y0Noin
Fighter Bomber has not retracted. Any Russian speakers glean anything useful from this?:
https://rutube.ru/video/00e44995192ad5b83a02e7a69c7a5f87/?r=a/