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Archangel's avatar

Hi Rurik,

I have recently chanced upon an interview by Alain Juillet, former head of intelligence at the DGSE, the French equivalent of the CIA or MI5. His analysis of the war in Ukraine is quite similar to that of Rurik. In particular he views the initial attack on Kiev as an attempt to expel Zelenski and the Americans in order to replace them with his own team. He stated that the deal negotiated in Istanbul consisted of recognising the annexation of Crimea by Russia, the reintegration of the Donbass in Ukraine, federal autonomy for most Russian-speaking regions, Russian recognised as state language. He stated that the deal was agreed and that both Russians and Ukrainians stopped combat operations then Western pressure pushed Zelenski to renege. The Russians had no choice but to resume fighting so redeployed the army in the Donbass. They adopted the only strategy feasible for them, i.e. shelling on a grand scale. So they started to attack Ukrainian stronghold after stronghold. Bakhmut and Avdeeka are militarily significant captures but Russians have not been able to fully take the first line of fortifications in 2 years. A full second line remains, and a partial third line. The defeat around Izium was due to the incompetence of the local Russian commanders. In general both armies are plagued by incompetence and corruption. His opinion is that the Russian methods spare the lives of Russian soldiers.

So Rurik is a rare but not lonely voice of reality on the not-war. Pay heed to his analyses.

The video in French:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-xrBGoBXQo&list=PLgk0izNiKuJTjb4Ie-x-KC8CXkadPTo9d&index=65

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Phoenix's avatar

RS, you may be interested to note that via Neofeudal who has classified a lot of blogs, on the axes Metaphysical-Political and Pessimistic-Optimistic, you rank as about the most extreme Metaphysical-Pessimist, and your diagonal opposite is Simplicius. You may not like each other, but I read both and find both useful. Horses for courses!

https://neofeudalreview.substack.com/p/an-overview-of-dissident-right-substack

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