I Told You So

Wagner marches on Moscow

Late is the hour in which Rolo chooses to appear.

Yes, I have been glued to the screen and following developments. I’ve also been streaming in Russian and getting showered with donations and people finally admitting that I was right about everything all along. I decided to take a break from my much-deserved award ceremony to check in with you guys and throw you some crumbs of analysis, although you do not deserve them, or me, as you yourselves well know.

First things first, the 5D accounts are either still pretending that nothing is happening or that this is part of a Putin-Prigozhin play to checkmate the black hats in the tunnels with Tom Hanks. This is not true. Putin has already declared Wagner traitors. Wagner is moving on Moscow and shooting down helicopters and forcing soldiers to stand down as they go. Riley has a good write-up of the basic information about what is going on. Here:

RUSSIA BRACES FOR EXTREME WEIRDNESS AS FSB-PRIGOZHIN DEATHMATCH BEGINS

Also, to all the new people subscribing to the blog, you have some catching up to do. For half a year, I have been trying to get people to take Prigozhin’s warnings, threats and tell-alls seriously. I was literally the only guy who bothered to translate many of his videos. Here is one of the articles I wrote predicting a march on Moscow:

Here is another predicting a descent into warlordism because of the absolutely INSANE Kremlinoid policy of creating dozens of ethnic militias and private armies.

If you are new here or one of the many hate-readers that I have accumulated who are grudgingly starting to realize that I was right about everything all along, but still seethe at me out petty pride, I want you to skim what I have been writing for the last month or two. How can anyone argue in good faith that I am not the undisputed, absolute best English-language analyst out there right now on this topic?

Everything that I wrote was downright prescient.

You will watch your tone when speaking to me going forward.

**

It is going down in a big, once-in-a-century kind of way.

Here is the short and dirty sequence of events that led to this.

1. The Tuvan gangster running the MoD forced through a decree demanding that Wagner and all militias and PMCs bend the knee to him. I predicted that this would end badly.

2. Prigozhin publicly stated that he would not comply and began raising support among his own men and other outfits

3. The doddering little guy in the Kremlin that some allege is the President of Russia came out on the side of Shoigu at his presser

4. Prigozhin releases yet another, final video lambasting the MoD and telling the dirty truth about this Not-War (working on the translation for tomorrow)

5. The MoD allegedly bombs Wagner’s positions after, presumably, negotiations with Prigozhin broke down (MoD denies this)

6. FSB announces warrant for Prigozhin’s arrest

7. CLARIFICATION: Prigozhin claims he was threatened with assassination, and then the official warrant came out when he crossed the border.

8. Prigozhin declares that he will fight, moves in on Rostov, takes over the SMO HQ

9. MoD helicopters start getting shot down. So far three are rumored to be downed, one plane (unlikely)

10. Wagner moves north on Voronezh and soldiers there lay down arms

11. Putin condemns Wagner as traitors in video address

12. Moscow declares state of emergency and anti-terrorism operation/regime

13. Putin condemns Wagner as traitors in video address

14. Wagner begins advance on Moscow

15. The national guard is being scrambled in Moscow, men being sent out to meet Wagner before they get to Moscow

Now, this is the very short and dirty list. Every single point on this list is worth an article explaining how it went down. But we cannot lose sight of the forest for the trees now that the situation is developing dynamically.

The most pressing question on everyone’s minds is, of course, does Wagner have a chance? The answer may surprise you.

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YES.

SHHHHHHH!!!! Shut your traps for once and actually hear me out on this one before you write out your angry replies. Consider the following:

• They have taken the time to prepare for this as evidenced by all the preparations for the march that occurred prior to it, that I reported on

• They are mercenaries, not hopeless romantics, which means they wouldn’t agree to a risky operation if they didn’t think they had a chance

• The Russian army is weak, deployed along the front, very slow and uncoordinated and demoralized, while Wagner is professional, has nothing to lose at this point and is moving very fast

• If Wagner truly only has 25k men like Prigozhin has said, that doesn’t mean that others won’t join up in the coming days

• The FSB has an army of about half a million people all over Russia, true. Unfortunately for them, most of these agents are glorified mall cops that won’t stand a chance against actual battle-hardened mercenaries

• Wagner’s commanders are far better than Shoigu’s generals: Utkin and Lotus are legends that we have covered on this blog before.

I put Wagner’s odds at pulling off a full coup at a solid and very scientific 14%. Actually, the real deciding factor for a successful coup is whether or not they have friends inside of Moscow. Clearly, as I have proven before, they do. So, actually, the better question is, will their friends within the Kremlin come through for them?

What is happening now is literally a repeat of the Kiev campaign.

Wagner is making a dash towards Moscow with the assumption that someone will open the gates of the city to them. There is literally no point in moving on Moscow otherwise. Do I have to state the obvious? They are not going to be able to storm Europe’s largest city with 20k men. That is not the plan, clearly. When they arrive there, they expect someone to step up to the plate and deliver.

Whether or not this will happen is, of course, up in the air.

So far, we already know quite a bit about who has declared for Wagner and who hasn’t because politicians and organizations in Russia are stumbling over themselves to declare their loyalty and their non-involvement in whatever happens next. The governors, the generals (including Surovikin), the FSB and the Presidential Administration have all declared against Prigozhin.

Now, Wagner is almost certainly a GRU creation. We know for sure that Utkin, its founder, is a GRU man. In fact, this may be the single most important detail to understand about this entire affair.

Also, the actual power-holders in Russia, the oligarchs, are mum so far on the topic. Except for Khodarkovsky, the exiled oligarch in London that is, who came out on Wagner’s side. With a few more oligarchs on his side, preferably with actual power in Russia, Prigozhin will have a fair shot at securing the W.

**

Events are unfolding rapidly. Most of what I relayed above happened within the last 12 hours. I suppose I could keep you updated on the situation as it unfolds, maybe. Perhaps if you signed up to support the blog as a “thank you” and a “gee, you were right” I’d be willing to even do a live-update running blog post. Who knows, maybe 5 paid subs would grease my palms enough for me to deliver on that. Think about it.

Like I said above, I think that Prigozhin has a serious chance. But, even if you didn’t believe me and ignored everything I said like so many of my commenters and detractors like to do, you could just look at the reactions of Putin and other officials. If this was nothing, and Prigozhin was just throwing a temper tantrum, would it merit creating such a media uproar? Don’t you think the Kremlin would play down a mutiny if they could? What does it tell you that within less than 12 hours after everything started, Putin himself, who can’t be bothered to make many public appearances or statements these days, came out and warned that 1917 had commenced again?

If this was a tiny little spat, the reaction wouldn’t be so apoplectic now would it?

The only other scenario is that this is a Kremlin false flag rebellion to justify crackdowns on the patriotic population. But, the timing doesn’t fit for this theory because the UAF offensive is still ongoing. If the MoD decides to peel off troops to chase down Wagner, well, the line will collapse. The reason for this is because the MoD refused to commit reserves to the defense, even though the UAF attack has indeed, by many accounts, exacted a very heavy toll on the defenders.

Another interesting question to ask yourself is this: how will the Kremlin and the state media characterize Wagner and explain away their rebellion?

If I had to guess, I would say that they will accuse Wagner of being N-words. To those who don’t know, in Russia, the N-word means “nationalist”. Also, because mercenary groups are illegal in Russia, the Kremlin might actually decide to go with that angle and pretend that they weren’t OK with using PMCs for many years now. I also expect them to label Wagner as a Neo-Nazi outfit. The Kremlinoids have a very limited vocabulary and they call anyone who they don’t like Nazis, just like their overlords in the West.

Now, I want to make it clear that I don’t support Prigozhin or his rebellion.

But the blame for it lies squarely on the shoulders of the MoD and the PA. They forced Wagner into a corner when they could have just cut a deal with them many months ago. It was their greed and their agreement-incapableness and absolute refusal to change anything at all in the power structure that caused them to start plotting to destroy the upstart Wagner. Russia’s ruling elites decided to make war on their best unit all the way back in February, and this is the final result of that premeditated plot. That being said, I don’t harbor any illusions about Prigozhin, but I do believe that allowing the situation to escalate into what might become a full-blown civil war is really the perfect illustration of how incompetent, treacherous, and ruinous this regime occupying Russia is.

Unfortunately for Prigozhin, he has not convinced me that he and his buddies would be any better.

Anyways, I’ll leave it here for now. I’ve got a livestream to hop into to track the developments. I will return to bring you fresh news, and I will even leave the comments section open this time, which I am sure that I will regret.

Until the next big update.

Oh, and don’t forget to pledge me money. I’ve earned it.