I TOLD YOU SO! Lyman Has Fallen to Ukrainian Forces, Kherson Struggling, and Possible Reshuffle in the Works

The only thing more depressing than being wrong is being right.

Well, it was obvious to me that further Ukrainian advances were to be expected.

Which is why I wrote that much reviled blog post stating as much. Feel free to go back and leave the like that you were too afraid to when you first read it as a form of apology.

My logic was simple: the Russian line was overstretched and undermanned. Furthermore, the Ukrainians had proven that massing their troops and attacking weak points in the line worked. So, it was only a matter of time until Lyman was taken. The town was first surrounded and then abandoned.

No 5D traps here, folks. Just military calculus, plain and simple. Apparently, the evacuation went better this time. But no one is seriously denying that the Russians didn’t take losses.

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Look, this is to be expected considering that the bulk of the Russian reinforcements won’t be felt until winter. Even then, Russia will simply be at parity with the Ukrainians. I sound like a broken record, I know, but, again, more men are needed.

Furthermore, until the reinforcements are deployed, Ukraine has a free hand to envelop more positions with their superior numbers. That is, until something cardinally changes, we have to assume that Ukraine will make more gains.

Since my last prediction turned out so well, I’m willing to take another gamble and declare that more significant ground will be taken by Ukrainian forces before this counter-offensive is over.

As a long shot possible hat-trick, I will also confidently predict that Lysychansk will be taken by Kiev. If I get this right, my word on the war becomes law going forward and I expect to be treated with all the reverence that a seer is supposed to be accorded.

Also, remember, if I’m proven wrong, I will vociferously deny that I ever predicted such a thing. I am fully prepared to gaslight my own readers with no remorse or shame. It works for the big bloggers, so I may as well try it myself.

You have been warned.

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We have more bad news coming out of Kherson, which is in the south. There are reports of breakthroughs along the overstretched and undermanned Russian line. This is to be expected though, so we should take it all in stride. I don’t want to dwell here on the military defeats of the Russian army anymore than to simply point out that I was right, Strelkov was right, Marko was right and all the other pessimists were right too. This also means that the 5D dunces were wrong. I wonder if some of the smaller dunces might quit even after failing to predict or recognize what was happening. Naturally, the big ones aren’t going anywhere because they are raking in the dough from naive disaffected old-timers. It’s all just one big grift for them, clearly. And we all know how much the masses love to worship at the feet of conmen and grifters. It is the perennial normie condition. Oh well.

Now, with all that out of the way …

Actually, I have some very good news to share. No fanciful 5D schemes and empty boastful blathering about the imminent doom of the “Anglo-Fascist Empire”, mind you, but actual concrete developments.

Take, the recent laws passed by the President to punish incompetence in the military.

Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law amending and amending the criminal code regarding tougher punishment during military service during mobilization, martial law, wartime, in conditions of armed conflict or combat operations. We are talking about such crimes as desertion, voluntary surrender, refusal to participate in hostilities, as well as the disruption of defense orders and the destruction of military property.

Recall that on September 20, deputies of the State Duma of the Russian Federation approved these amendments in the second and third readings.

So, for what crimes the toughening of responsibility is provided?

According to the law, “non-compliance by a subordinate with an order from a superior ... during a period of martial law, in wartime or in conditions of an armed conflict or combat operations, as well as refusal to participate in military or hostilities” will be punished by imprisonment for up to three years, and in case of severe consequences - up to 10 years.

Responsibility for the unauthorized abandonment of a unit during the period of mobilization or martial law, in wartime or in conditions of an armed conflict or combat operations has been strengthened. The sanction provides for from five to 10 years in prison.

This was clearly done in response to the shameful abandonment of huge ammo reserves and military equipment in the panicked flight from Kharkov.

Again, no, it wasn’t a strategic withdrawal.

Entire arsenals were left behind. Why they were not destroyed is anyone’s guess. Many in the patriotic community in Russia allege that this was an act of deliberate treason to arm the Ukrainian army by bought and paid for operatives in the Russian military forces, or, perhaps higher-up even.

Clearly, President Putin isn’t happy about it. Let’s see if he makes examples out of anyone.

For desertion during the period of mobilization, wartime or in conditions of armed conflict, the terms have been increased to 15 years. Military draft dodgers who feign illness can face up to 10 years in prison.

Tougher punishment for violations of the rules of border and guard duty, deliberate damage or destruction of military property. The sanction involves up to 10 imprisonment.

As I have reported before, someone’s been stealing weapons and equipment from the Donbass militias. Someone has also been stopping supplies and volunteers and refugees at the border. That someone has been routinely accused of doing this since all the way back in 2015 by the patriotic community in Donbass and in Russia.

Heads, spikes, ramparts.

For the destruction of military property in wartime through negligence, a punishment of up to five years in a colony is provided. Voluntary surrender (in the absence of signs of treason) - imprisonment for a term of three to 10 years.

At the same time, a serviceman who has committed a crime under this article for the first time may be released from criminal liability if he took measures for his release, returned to the unit or place of service and did not commit other crimes while in captivity.

For looting in wartime - up to six years in prison. The maximum sanction for the same crime, if it is committed with the infliction of grievous bodily harm or murder, and also if the damage was inflicted on an especially large scale, provides for up to 15 years in prison.

The maximum term of imprisonment for disruption of the defense order is up to 10 years in prison.  

My friend commented that these new laws are reminiscent of Stalinist times. I pointed out that all states fighting seriously for their survival pass similar measures. Best practices cut across ideological lines. Point being: Russia is steadily getting more and more serious about this war and the looming showdown with NATO. We can only welcome such developments and hope for more measures in this same vein.

Now, another possible positive development, but far more speculative and verging on 5D territory. Although I shouldn’t say that. The 5D narrative is that everything is going according to The Plan and therefore no firings are necessary, right?

But yes, there’s talk of high-level shuffling and firings in the works. Just rumors on Telegram far.

But, consider the following: we had Kadyrov of Chechnya lashing out at the military command for the poorly-planned defense of Lyman recently.

-- GEROMAN -- The Zerbian - 👀 - @GeromanAT

Kadyrov about Lyman (he is not happy)

In particular, he blamed General Lapin.

And he was backed up by Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group.

Then, this accusation hurled at Lapin was shot down by the Group O people (unclear who exactly wrote it).

-- GEROMAN -- The Zerbian - 👀 - @GeromanAT

Group O statement about Lyman

This sort of public mud-throwing is unprecedented. And, the Ukrainians are sure to broadcast it on their news and gloat.

But, it is also indicative of discontent with the status quo within the military.

A Telegram analyst (I know, I know, but still) who I spoke to recently was dead-certain that it meant that someone was going to be reassigned to Sakhalin (internal exile) because neither Kadyrov nor Prigozhin would have spoken up publicly if there wasn’t a planned shuffle of positions underway. Remember, the patriotic dissident position is that the military has been gutted by the reforms of Serdyukov, who downsized the military prior to Shoigu and stole billions of roubles to boot. The aforementioned sleezeball also appointed a bunch of lackeys and criminals to various positions. These people, including Shoigu himself, who has no real military experience, have to be shown the door.

Again, this is not my position (although I do not disagree), but the position of the patriotic bloc. All I can say is that we will have to wait and see. I won’t make any predictions on this front at all. I can only hope and pray for the best.

The real question is whether there will be changes in the reigning political caste. We can charitably argue that the current crop of Kremlin elites served necessary functions during times of (relative) peace, but that the times have changed now. Then, we can delicately raise the question: will they be able to get Russia ready for real war both economically, morally, politically and so on?

Well, they seem to be dragging their heels and resisting the current trajectory with everything that they have now, so, clearly, perhaps they ought to retire gracefully, honor intact, write their memoirs in their dachas and allow men of a different temperament and mindset take their places, no?

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Sorry for the operational pause in postings.

There’s been a lot of developments happening all at once and I didn’t want to comment on them until I had a full grasp of the situation. I expected Lyman to fall two days ago and even wrote out the first part of the post beforehand. Truth be told, I was hoping to report on a prominent firing as a way to soften the blow or something, which is why I held back on posting, but, oh well.

Also, there’s the referendum and the reincorporation of the lost Russian territories to discuss. A podcast with Marko and Slavsquat is planned for tomorrow on the topic. Finally, we need to discuss the change in rhetoric coming out of the Kremlin. You’ve heard about this, I presume? President Putin referring to the West as Satanic? Good stuff.

Also, I’m thinking of setting up a paid section in the near future. Feel free to tell me what you think about that in the comments section below. Be honest.