I Was Right, Again and the 5D Bloggers Were Wrong, Again

It is time to gloat, again.

I thought I’d give it a few more days before announcing that I was right in my predictions and that there was no large Russia mega-offensive set to be announced either on the anniversary of the SMO or Putin’s speech before that.

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..

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Aaaand yeah, there doesn’t appear to be any mega-offense in the works unless it’s actually happening right now in total silence.

But it isn’t.

You guys owe my ego some likes in the comments section, lemme tell you.

We were, however, told by pretty much everyone bigger (and more celebrated in alt-media than myself) that this would not be the case. MacGregor, Ritter, the Duran people, other bloggers, and, I assume, Lira and Escobar and Martynov (I don’t read them, so I wouldn’t know) were pushing this line to get clicks and money.

But there really was no proof whatsoever that there would be one, and, in fact, all the signs pointed to there NOT being one and I said as much multiple times, but also right before the anniversary when I dissected the analysis of a fellow blogger who was convinced that it was all about to go down.

You can read my breakdown of the faulty 5D logic here:

Hedging My Bets on the Russian Winter Checkmate

Anyways, I asked the blogger that I dissected above to debate me and engage in a constructive dialogue. He has yet to take me up on my offer to do a podcast, and that is his right, sure, but I hope that we will be able to start a written back and forth dialogue at least.

I mean, have I not earned the right to be taken seriously at this point? How many other solid predictions do I have to make? What is the criteria to get off the blacklist with these other Russia bloggers?

I am afraid that tactical silence is all that I will get in reply, but I’d be pleasantly surprised if I turn out to be wrong on this one particular prediction. I do tend to literally always be right, so it would be a welcome change of pace for once.

Anyways, I’ll gloat some more another time, I think you guys have had enough for today.

**

Let me instead try to focus on making this a learning moment for everyone involved. I have given my reasons for being pessimistic too many times to count. Allow me then to explain the reasons for my competitors’ optimism instead.

In short:

1. Russia has more troops

2. Russia is killing 10x more than they are losing

3. Russia is more moral, therefore, God will not let Russia lose

4. Russia is against Nazis and Nazis lost to Russia before

5. ???

6. Putin is a genius 5D Judo-Chess master

And that’s about it as far as I can tell. Feel free to chime in with more.

The problem with the first claim, is that it is simply flat-out wrong. Ukraine has more troops than Russia. This is because Ukraine, despite being a smaller country, mobilized more men. Russia, in contrast, started the war with about 200k men and then mobilized about 300-500k more men. I don’t actually think they mobilized 500k, but I’m just throwing the 5D people a bone at this point. Regardless, the full force hasn’t even been deployed yet and we even hear Russian generals boasting about this. In contrast, Ukraine enjoyed about a 3:1 advantage against Russia in the fall, which led to their successes on the battlefield. With the continued mobilization effort, they will continue to enjoy a numerical advantage over Russia for the foreseeable future.

Now, military science tells us that the larger army, all else equal, tends to win in battles and wars.

So, it follows logically that the 5D people have to explain this away somehow. Their cope is that Russian artillery has counter-acted Kiev’s number advantage. And it is true that Russia has more big guns and more shells which they lobbed at the enemy. But Russia has stopped using its shells so frivolously since winter started. This is probably because they have begun to run out.

To be fair, Prigozhin of Wager says that production is now on track and the higher-ups were simply strangling the supply for internal political reasons. This whole saga was also either ignored or denied, by the way. Or it was explained away as a clever maneuver to trick the Ukrainians into thinking that Wagner and Shoigu were having a tiff.

Occam’s Razor, have you heard of it?

Also, you see the 5D people making absurd claims about the number of Ukrainian deaths. At the end of fall, they were sayin that there were 600k casualties, that is, that the entire Ukrainian army had already been destroyed. Despite this, Russia could literally make no progress on the battlefield anywhere.

Curious, no?

If Ukraine, however, as I believe, Ukraine has now lost closer to ~100k dead and ~300-400k casualties, then the 5D people don’t have a leg to stand on. And, by now they’re probably claiming a million casualties anyways. Or six million even.

Anyways, to explain away the lack of any visible strategy or gains or any victories above the tactical level actions in Bakhmut and Soledar, they had to concoct a new theory. Russia, they claim, is fighting an attrition warfare campaign. The only problem with this claim is that it is absolutely retarded.

Here’s why:

• If 100k are dead after a year of heavy fighting, and Ukraine has a reserve of 7 million men, well, do the math on how many more years it will take to effect this brilliant plan.

• Seeing as Kiev is not run by Ukrainians concerned about the welfare of the Ukrainian people, but by Washington and an ethnic neocon satrap government, they will never “see reason” and throw in the towel. Because it isn’t their people who’s blood is being spilled.

• Even if the official Ukrainian manpower reserves are not realistic, then how about at least 1-2 million? Even little Balkan states were able to mobilize 3-4 million men in WWI, so why is this an unrealistic number in a country of 30 million?

• If Russia isn’t killing 10:1 as many soldiers as they are losing, which are absurd numbers considering that the two sides are near-peers, but the numbers of dead are far closer, let’s say even 2:1 (which is still too much) then it will take Russia hundreds of thousands of dead to “win”.

• How is it a victory if 2 million Ukrainians die for the cost of 1 million Russians? How is killing Ukrainians a victory against NATO at all? Ukraine isn’t in NATO. Large numbers of NATO troops and civilians aren’t dying. East Slavs are.

• The NATO plan was literally to start a war in Ukraine and bleed the slavic peoples dry. Every single dead Ukrainian and Russian is already a victory for them. Russia will inherit a ruin. The only way to “win” would be to not allow the war to occur at all, or, to resolve the problem quickly and relatively painlessly. That’s why Russia TRIED TO KNOCK OUT KIEV QUICKLY, HELLO! REMEMBER THAT?!

• The Russian government’s position is that they are basically doing a police action in Ukraine (SMO) to save a fraternal brotherly peoples from Anglo-Nazi-Terrorists who have occupied the Kiev government and you will NEVER hear Putin say that he is killing every single male from 16-60 years old in the country, holy shit how retarded are these 5D people, Jesus Christ.

• Could you even imagine if this was actually the stated plan? Who EVEN IN RUSSIA would support what amounts to a genocide? People in Russia have family in Ukraine. Wives, grannies, fond memories. And is it moral to massacre the entire male population of a “fraternal, brotherly” nation THAT LITERALLY SHARES THE SAME BLOOD AND HISTORY AS YOU AND IS FORCED TO FIGHT BECAUSE THERE IS A FUCKING DRAFT IN THE COUNTRY INSTITUTED BY AN OCCUPATION GOVERNMENT?

• Caps lock off for the rest of the article, sorry

So, the next 5d assumption amounts to just more superstitious peasant gibberish. Yes, Russia doesn’t export sodomy and child molestation and BLM propaganda across the world like the West, and particularly the United States does. Does this mean that Yahweh will smite NATO and spare Russia? Dream on. If anything, he’d support Kiev and Washington because both governments are run by the apple of his eye.

But if your premise is that Russia is the moral one in this conflict (a position that I share) how can you then advocate for what amounts to a genocide-attrition campaign in very next breath?

It’s so stupid and inconsistent that it beggars belief. Not even Press Secretary Peskov would be dumb enough to utter such a thing. “Our plan to win is attrition genocide the male population Ukraine,” would not go over well with anyone in the world now, nor with the Chinese historians who will be chronicling the collapse of European civilization by the end of this century. That is why no one says it.

Well, except the 5D idiots, of course.

As for similarity comparisons to WWII, well, the Soviet Union had factories, lots of able-bodied men, lend-lease and so on. Unless China starts supplying Russia against NATO-Nazis, then Russia’s gutted-out economy will sputter and struggle. Let’s hope they do, I suppose. So far, all I hear is a whole lotta talk while the Chinese just scoop up discounted Russian energy supplies because they can.

And finally, we’ve talked so much about Putin already on this blog, that I don’t want to say any more on the topic.

The executive summary: Putin is a disillusioned Liberal and former Westernophile like much of the Russian elite. By that I mean that he is better than much of the elite in Russia in that he is no longer as Liberal or pro-West. They, however, remain the same. Putin has started to fight back against the West, but the critique of him that you hear from the Right-of-Kremlin crowd is that it is too little and too late and not good enough. One of his best qualities however is his ability to admit when mistakes were made, which puts him far above the 5Ders who simply change goalposts all the time. Despite his many shortcomings, Putin has made tough decisions before and might be able to make them in the future, so I’m willing to cut him some slack. Also, there is literally no one out there to replace him as the situation stands now, so, we gotta make do regardless.

Finally, the man is not a god or a Muad’Dib capable of seeing the future.

You’d think I wouldn’t have to point that out, but, here we are, stating the obvious, again.

And I’ll probably be proven right, again.

I may not have a country anymore, but at least I get to gloat from time to time.