Israel is Still Bombing Iran, By the Way

Let me rain on the peace parade some more.

Pattern recognition. It is a powerful thing. Do you have it?

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Israel signed a ceasefire with Hezbollah, but they kept bombing Hezbollah as they retreated from their strongholds in South Lebanon. Russia has also previously declared ceasefires with Ukraine several times around religious holidays like Christmas and Easter. Kiev kept bombing during these ceasefires.

And now we are here: Iran signs on to a ceasefire with Israel, but is still getting bombed.

UH-OH!

GOSH DARN IT!

First, Israel accused Iran of violating the ceasefire. Here:

Within a few hours of publicly agreeing to a ceasefire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump, Israel has launched new strikes at Iran, which it accused of breaking the peace deal.

The resumption of hostilities threatens to extend the conflict that Trump dubbed the “12 Day War.”

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday he ordered the Israeli Defense Forces to “respond forcefully to Iran’s violation of the ceasefire with intense strikes against regime targets in the heart of Tehran.”

The IDF said it sounded sirens in northern Israel “due to missile fire from Iran” around 3:30 a.m. ET. Israel and Iran earlier launched strikes at each other shortly before acknowledging the beginning of a ceasefire, but an Israeli official told the Associated Press that two more missiles were detected and intercepted hours after the start of the ceasefire.

The Israeli Embassy in London published a photo purporting to show a rocket fired at Israel by Iran during the ceasefire, adding: “Iran continues to show its true nature as a terror state and a regional threat.”

According to Iranian state media, Iran’s armed forces denied Israel’s claims that it fired fresh missiles at Israel after the ceasefire began and leveled accusations against Israel of its own ceasefire violations, alleging three strikes across Iran earlier in the morning after the ceasefire had begun.

Iranian state media claimed, citing unnamed sources, that Israel’s allegation of a ceasefire violation was “pretext” to engage in further aggression. The report also reiterated Iranian threats that any breaches of the ceasefire by Israel or the U.S. would be met with “stronger retaliation.”

Then Israel started bombing more.

Al-Jazeera provides a rolling hour-by-hour coverage. Here:

• The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran has appeared to hold despite an Iranian missile strike and an Israeli attack on Tehran that took place after it went into effect.

• US President Donald Trump said he was “really unhappy” with Israel and used an expletive to voice frustration over the exchange of attacks between the two countries.

• Both Iran and Israel have claimed victory in the war and warned they were ready to renew hostilities if the other attacks.

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel “will act with the same determination” if Iran tries to rebuild its nuclear programme.

• Several US media outlets reported that Trump’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities did not destroy the sites and only set back Iran’s nuclear programme by months.

So the ceasefire “holds” despite both sides violating it, apparently.

Which … OK?

This is now also a war on the English language and the meaning of words, apparently. “Cease-fire” apparently means something else now. Just like how war at some point became “Not-War”. We have a ceasefire in which fire is not ceased. OK.

Chances are that this Not-Ceasefire will hold, but that the bombings will continue regardless and the damage will be disproportionately in Israel’s favor. Why do I say this?

Well, let’s just pull up the scorecard for Round 1 now. Oleg Tsarev, who is now my go-to "sit-rep” guy on Russian Telegram had this to say:

Who won?

Israel won a military victory. That's a fact. They destroyed 90% of Iran's missiles and drones. They struck Iran's nuclear facilities in Fordow and Natanz. Satellite images show severe damage. Iran lost two generals and twelve missile officers. The nuclear weapons program was set back at least two years.

Israel achieved its strategic goals. They broke Iran's Shiite belt of influence. Hezbollah in Lebanon lost 70% of its missiles. Proxy groups in Iraq and Yemen retreated. The United States openly sided with Israel.

Politically, Netanyahu has strengthened. His party's rating has grown. From 18 to 24 seats in parliament. Radical voters are shouting about victory over Iran. The ultra-Orthodox have temporarily fallen silent about the controversial laws.

But Iran's missile stockpile turned out to be larger than Israel expected. For this reason, it was necessary to negotiate with Iran. A protracted war would have cost Israel dearly. Iran did not capitulate - the victory is not complete.

Israel's economy lost about 17 billion dollars in 12 days. There is destruction in the south of the country. Forty thousand people cannot return home. Hamas in Gaza still poses a threat.

I strongly doubt that.

Keep in mind that Tsarev is not really a big conspiracy theorist. He’s a Crimean MP in the Duma and he gives sit-reps about the news and troop deployments and that sort of thing. And he’s quoting a Times of Jerusalem report, which you can find here:

The cost of property damages from Iranian missile and drone attacks on Israel over the past 12 days is estimated to be around double the sum of claims stemming from the October 7 attack and all 615 days since, the head of the Tax Authority’s compensation department said Monday.

The likely NIS 5 billion ($1.47 billion) price tag calculated by Amir Dahan underlined the destructive power of the few Iranian missiles to make it through Israel’s air defense shield, carrying massive warheads that reduced whole apartment buildings to rubble and sent out blast waves that shattered windows and caused other damage over a wide area.

“These are figures we have never seen for direct property damage,” Dahan told the Knesset Finance Committee on Monday.

According to Dahan, damage claims resulting from ballistic missile attacks from Iran had already reached NIS 4.5 billion ($1.32 billion) as of Monday and were expected to climb by another NIS 500 million. By comparison, Israeli property owners had incurred some NIS 2.5 billion ($735 million) in damage resulting from the October 7 attack and since, including months of heavy fighting in the north.

Some 40,000 property claims over the war have already been filed, a figure that Dahan predicted would likely reach 50,000 or more, including claims from factories still assessing the extent of damage. It was not clear if the forecast was based on a longer timeline for the war, which appeared to end abruptly Tuesday morning following a US-brokered ceasefire.

But this number is meaningless and makes absolutely no sense.

You will see why as we read on with the sit-rep.

Yes, Israel won. But like a boxer after a tough fight. With a broken face. A broken arm.

Iran has lost the most. Its air defense is almost destroyed. The army's losses are enormous. Its influence in the region has weakened. But the nuclear program has not been eliminated. Some facilities have survived. The question of the bomb remains open.

Trump is using this victory. He positions himself as a peacemaker. He is already writing a book about how he stopped the war. For him, this is a propaganda triumph.

The most dismal results of the war:

Iran: Since the start of Israeli attacks 12 days ago, more than 5,000 people have been injured, 606 people have died, the Iranian Ministry of Health said.

Israel: In 12 days of war with Iran, 28 Israelis have died.

40,000 Jews claim that their properties were destroyed and seek government compensation and yet only 28 Israelis dead?

That’s … that’s some Talmudic math right there, folks.

If we just look at the official figures for the dead though, we’ve got 30x the amount of dead Iranians and this is the K/D ratio in favor of Israel that I will assume going forward in Round II and the subsequent rounds.

Meanwhile …

Is Tel Aviv really been wiped off the face of the Earth?

Has Israel really been chastised?

Did Iran really live up the hype?

To ask these questions is to answer them.

BONUS CONTENT:

Sun cycles:

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