The operation is expected to be the one of the upcoming attempts of the AFU to cut Russian grouping in the Kherson region. At the same time, heavy battles continue on the western front lines in the region, south of the Davidov Brod. The AFU have reportedly accumulated up to 60 thousand servicemen in the Kherson direction.
The Russian military is preparing for new large-scaled attacks by the AFU in the region. Mobilized servicemen and military equipment are transferred to the military positions in the region. Meanwhile, civilians are being evacuated from the settlements under Russian control. Women and children from Kherson were proposed to leave the region amid the ongoing hostilities.
The Russian military continue successfully repel Ukrainian attacks in Kherson, Zaporozhie regions. Ukrainian forces fail to develop any offensive in the LPR and a re retreating in the DPR. The Russian successes are the first results of the changes in the Russian top military command and reinforcement of the grouping in Ukraine with recently mobilized servicemen.
It remains to be seen if the offensive will be successful. Every day that Ukraine waits, Russia has a better chance of holding them off.
We’re all just waiting to see the big clash.
Now, the mobilized are being streamed in to plug the gaps. As a result, there are deaths to report. And, President Putin was recently asked why raw recruits were already on the frontlines.
“When the mobilization was announced, they said that all those mobilized would undergo mandatory military training. How is it that people end up at the front [when] three weeks have not passed since the announcement of mobilization?” a correspondent of Arguments and Facts asked Putin.
Putin replied that after being drafted, the mobilized undergo primary training in "formation units", which takes from five to 10 days, after which training in a combat unit follows from five to 15 days. Then the soldiers are already sent to the troops taking part in the hostilities. He noted that this is preparation "by the minimum values" of the terms.
He also said that 16k mobilized soldiers are already fighting and another 33k have been deployed. If we do the math here, then we’re looking at about 50k reinforcements since mobilization was announced almost a month ago. I have no idea if the current pace will continue, but, it it does, then we’re talking about 100k by mid November and then maybe closer to 200k by New Year’s.
Also, there is some run-of-the-mill corruption to report. In Tatarstan it appears to be particularly bad:
“Do we have a government? Or some kind of administration?
Mobilized from Tatarstan said that local authorities do not allocate them a budget for helmets and bulletproof vests, collecting money in a “voluntary-compulsory” manner, including from their families.
Hey, that’s on the regional government of Tatarstan, which is completely corrupt. Tatars, by the way, don’t actually exist and are a total psy-op. But that’s a topic for another time.
**
War is an interesting phenomenon to report on. Well, it is interesting for bloggers like myself who aren’t on the frontlines with subpar weaponry and no commanding officer that is. For the people in the mud, it’s no fun at all, I would imagine. But, if you have the luxury of taking a bird’s-eye-view of the situation, you are forced to conclude that war is really good at showing what exactly a society is made of. We see it all thrown into stark relief when war begins.
Now, most intelligent people nowadays understand that modern mechanized war isn’t exactly a glorious and honorable thing. Nor is it a lot of fun.
But why exactly isn’t it particularly pleasant?
Sure, you’ve got the looming threat of death to contend with as well as the sound of explosions and the mini-earthquakes that make you queasy. But, mostly, it’s the bullshit that you have to deal with. Incompetent commanders, regulations and operation procedure that makes no sense, irregular supplies, incomprehensible orders and the subpar people in your own unit, who are drawn from all walks of life (except the nomenklatura, of course).
Mind you, all of these problems existed in peacetime before the war ever began.
War just throws society’s problems into stark relief. It sheds a light on the state of a nation and its people.
Just think: who are these incompetent officers? They didn’t come out of nowhere, did they? A society produced them. Society also produced all those recruits who have medical problems, who are antisocial or incompetent and so on. Why do so many people have back pain, bad feet, poor eyesight, head pains and more? If anything, again, this war simply exposed the rot that was always there.
Now could you imagine a draft in America? The problems would no doubt be orders of magnitude worse. And we know it was actually the long peace that created this situation, don’t we?
One of the redeeming characteristics of war is that it demands objective, material real-world results. Ideology and wishful thinking fly out of the window as soon as a war begins in earnest. Only one principle reigns supreme: strength. A society that is built on the pursuit of strength tends to win wars and survive.
We’ve gotten angrier.
But, a nation that has stumbled in a stupor for the last 30 years unsure of what it is, who its enemies are, and what it has to live for is going to have a hard time shaping up.
Anyways, enough philosophizing. My point here is that none of this bad news surrounding the mobilization is cause for alarm really.
Ukraine had the same problems, and, just by raising large numbers of men, they were able to swing their fortunes in this war. For the soldiers themselves suffering from this sub-par mobilization, we can only extend our sympathy. But, from the position of armchair generals, we have to shrug and admit that this was to be expected. Literally no one expected it to unfold any other way.
what's is also interesting with this war is it reveal, as usual, we have imagined...the war before.
In 1914, French troops acted like if it was 1870 again
In 1939, French troops (better equiped than whermacht) acted like if it was 1915.
So, a lot of people, me including, thought this war would be 1991 or 2003 again : aircraft rule, quick victory, enormous amout of deads. (because of news fantastic weapons, bla bla).
And what we saw : a week of 1940, 6 months of 1915, and a september like 1870. But no crypto-war, not massive bombing, not supernewswunder weapons.
Let's be honest : we, people at home very interested by this war, have no clue what happen, what's behind the doors of chancelleries.
We just hope for a win.
(at least, we, russian good side, are more cautious with news than evil ukrophiles, which seems litterally eating every single shit their MSM deliver to them)
The old Russia line extended, in what is now represented on the map as blue territory, from Blagodatovka-Davidov Brod northward to Arkangelsk, well covered behind the Ingulets river, then turned East among the fields all the way up to reaching the Dniepr at Osokorivka. I think at the beginning of October a mass Ukraine assault, sustained in time, infiltrated the Russian line defending these fields from Arkangelsk to Osokorivka.
The problem with this is that the other Russian line deployed on the East in front of the Ingulets, would now be in the danger of attacks on its right side by the infiltrated Ukrainian from the North. Thus they'd have river and Ukrainians on the West side, Ukrainians coming down on them on their North and East, and other Russian troops blocking them on the South side. This is called being taken by enfilade and it's a textbook infantry tactic to make an enemy retreat from a fortified line. The Russians could do the same if they take Bakhmut and roll down towards Donetsk.
This I think is why the Russians fell back to their current positions. It's not because it's shorter and more defensible, but they really were forced by events to abandon a sound defense line behind a river. After Kharkov, this was another game manoeuvre by the Ukrainians resulting in a tactical victory.
For the rest, nowadays the killing zone is so lethal, with precise indirect artillery fire guided by observational drones, night vision thermal equipment for snipers, mines and IED scattered everywhere, that you absolutely do not want to be there for any sustained amount of time, if you mildly wish to keep yourself whole.
what's is also interesting with this war is it reveal, as usual, we have imagined...the war before.
In 1914, French troops acted like if it was 1870 again
In 1939, French troops (better equiped than whermacht) acted like if it was 1915.
So, a lot of people, me including, thought this war would be 1991 or 2003 again : aircraft rule, quick victory, enormous amout of deads. (because of news fantastic weapons, bla bla).
And what we saw : a week of 1940, 6 months of 1915, and a september like 1870. But no crypto-war, not massive bombing, not supernewswunder weapons.
Let's be honest : we, people at home very interested by this war, have no clue what happen, what's behind the doors of chancelleries.
We just hope for a win.
(at least, we, russian good side, are more cautious with news than evil ukrophiles, which seems litterally eating every single shit their MSM deliver to them)
With the help of a map of the Kherson region, it's easier to visualize what I think happened there, as I have not read yet any clarifying report from either side https://s2.cdnstatic.space/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/15october2022_Ukraine_Odessa_KryvyiRih_Map.jpg
The old Russia line extended, in what is now represented on the map as blue territory, from Blagodatovka-Davidov Brod northward to Arkangelsk, well covered behind the Ingulets river, then turned East among the fields all the way up to reaching the Dniepr at Osokorivka. I think at the beginning of October a mass Ukraine assault, sustained in time, infiltrated the Russian line defending these fields from Arkangelsk to Osokorivka.
The problem with this is that the other Russian line deployed on the East in front of the Ingulets, would now be in the danger of attacks on its right side by the infiltrated Ukrainian from the North. Thus they'd have river and Ukrainians on the West side, Ukrainians coming down on them on their North and East, and other Russian troops blocking them on the South side. This is called being taken by enfilade and it's a textbook infantry tactic to make an enemy retreat from a fortified line. The Russians could do the same if they take Bakhmut and roll down towards Donetsk.
This I think is why the Russians fell back to their current positions. It's not because it's shorter and more defensible, but they really were forced by events to abandon a sound defense line behind a river. After Kharkov, this was another game manoeuvre by the Ukrainians resulting in a tactical victory.
For the rest, nowadays the killing zone is so lethal, with precise indirect artillery fire guided by observational drones, night vision thermal equipment for snipers, mines and IED scattered everywhere, that you absolutely do not want to be there for any sustained amount of time, if you mildly wish to keep yourself whole.