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Moscow Will Probably Begin Formal Surrender Negotiations By the End of the Year
Are you tired of winning yet?
First we had Arestovych talking about planned negotiations between Russia and NATO+Kiev. But he could be ignored because … well, just because. And then Prigozhin came out and said the same thing. Also irrelevant. Only traitors like Rolo even bothered to cover the news.
Then Kissinger came out and said that he was confident that negotiations would begin by the end of this year as well. He also said that he believed they would spell the end of Putin. This is the guy who is considered Putin’s old friend, and a friend of Russia (he isn’t) saying this.
President Vladimir Putin may struggle to hold on to power if the war in Ukraine forces Russia to abandon military aggression and accept a peace deal with Europe, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger said.
“I would like a Russia that recognizes that its relations to Europe have to be based on agreement and a kind of consensus and I believe that this war will, if it’s ended properly, may make it achievable,” Kissinger told Bloomberg’s Editor-in-Chief John Micklethwait in an interview. Asked whether Putin could survive in power if the war ended on those terms, Kissinger replied: “It’s improbable.”
The veteran diplomat said it’s important that Ukraine emerges from the war as a strong democracy, and preferable to avoid “the dissolution of Russia or the reduction of Russia to resentful impotence” that risked stoking new tensions.
Translation: they fear a Russian nationalist coming to power.
Finally, we had Lukashenko come out and confirm these rumors as well just the other day, making his esteemed eastern partners look bad. Clearly, he gets a kick out of it, and is playing his own game (very skillfully, I might add).
In a recent press conference with foreign and Belarusian media, President Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus expressed optimism for a potential shift in the Russia-Ukraine war by autumn, with the possibility of peace negotiations commencing.
The Belarusian President also underscored the significance of seizing the opportune moment for dialogue, regardless of the choice of venue, be it Moscow or Minsk.
He said: “By autumn, the situation should change, and we will start talking at the negotiating table. Perhaps. Maybe not in September, a little later.
"I don’t want to give out any information, but the Europeans are already talking about this. France, Germany. most of all Europeans. And the beneficiary is actually one country.”
"The main thing is to stop this conflict.”
The idea that there might be talks planned between the Rashist-Occupiers and the Anglo-Satanists however, shouldn’t be surprising considering that preliminary talks have already been held.
A group of former senior U.S. national security officials has held secret talks with prominent Russians believed to be close to the Kremlin — and, in at least one case, with the country’s top diplomat — with the aim of laying the groundwork for negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, half a dozen people briefed on the discussions said.
In a high-level example of the back-channel diplomacy taking place behind the scenes, Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov met with members of the group for several hours in April in New York, four former officials and two current officials said.
On the agenda were some of the thorniest issues in the war in Ukraine, like the fate of Russian-held territory that Ukraine may never be able to liberate and the search for an elusive diplomatic off-ramp that could be tolerable to both sides.
Meeting with Lavrov were Richard Haass, a former diplomat and the outgoing president of the Council on Foreign Relations, current and former officials said. The group was joined by Europe expert Charles Kupchan and Russia expert Thomas Graham, both former White House and State Department officials who are Council on Foreign Relations fellows.
Obviously, with Lukashenko now joining the chorus and confirming that talks are indeed planned, things are starting to look EXTREMELY grim for Putin (who cares at this point) and for the Russian people (unfortunate).
Let us speak plainly here.
This SMO was an atrocity committed against all military logic and what is worse, a complete political and military disaster for Russia. The situation is totally FUBAR and has been so since last summer. The cost can be measured in the huge numbers of Ukrainian and Russian soldiers that have died, not to mention the mostly unnecessary and senseless suffering of the civilian population, which will not remember Russia’s SMO kindly. Russia is also much weaker now than it was before the SMO. Strategic ammo stockpiles were frittered away ineffectively, many weapons-systems that won’t be replaced any time soon were lost, and Russia’s economy has been hit hard by the Western sanctions, almost as badly as Europe was.
In other words, the American Empire has already inflicted a mortal blow on the Russian Federation that will continue to bleed out for the foreseeable future. To be fair though, they were helped along by the Russian spook community, the Russian oligarchs and the Russian government, which is a merger of the two aforementioned factions (spooks and crooks) so the credit has to go to them too.
Does that mean that surrender is a good idea though? Well, I went into detail months ago explaining why this was a very bad idea. Here:
The situation has only gotten worse since I wrote my analysis. First, we learned, through Lukashenko again, that even when Moscow had troops parked outside of Kiev, the Kremlin was prepared to sign a very pro-Kiev agreement asking only to be allowed to rent out Crimea and Donbass. Also, presumably, they wanted their good friend Medvedchuk out of prison and reinstated in Ukraine and his assets returned to him.
Kiev, probably because of Washington’s pressure, rejected this extremely conciliatory treaty offered to them by Moscow.
Since then though, the situation has only improved for them. Their army is far larger, they have far more weapons, and they are still getting colossal amounts of money being handed over to them. They did not have this on March 29 when they refused the first peace treaty. Meanwhile, Russia is suffering from mutinies and demoralization on the home front. They haven’t been able to go on a large offensive since last summer and continue to suffer from sabotage within their territories, which the FSB, one of the world’s most sprawling and intrusive spook networks, either can’t or won’t prevent.
The only good news is that Ukraine removed the competent General Zaluzhny from his post over what appears to be internal political squabbling, and launched an ill-fated initial offensive. They also got unlucky with the dam accident (Putin’s words) but are now finally making some progress with their attacks. I believe that they were operating under the assumption that Washington would pick up the phone and get Shoigu to turn off the AD and surrender the entire territory without much of a fight like he did in Syria with Wagner.
By the way, when I first wrote about this, I was using American soldier accounts who admitted that the Russian MoD turned off their AD when their esteemed Western partners asked them to do so, allowing Wagner to be blown to smithereens and resulting in the death of 200+ Russians.
Prigozhin, in his last video before starting the march, which I never got around to covering because of all the action, alleged the exact same thing. I don’t think that he reads my blog or the American journal where I found the story, and spilled the story based on his own sources (Wagner troops.
It is a shame that more people don’t read my blog. Just shy of 5k subs as things stand now. After a year + of writing pretty much every day. Oh well, what can you do?
I think I am a good teacher though, albeit a bit short-tempered on occasion.
Speculation aside, you can see what I am driving at here, I hope. Scratch that, I guess I can’t assume anything like that with some of you. *sigh* Sometimes, I feel more like a goddamn Messican teacher in the inner city trying to get the youfs to learn how to do subtraction and not a dissident patriot blogger or whatever.
My class is called Remedial Russia.
OK, so, bear with me here if you’re getting impatient, please, as I bring the Toltecs slowing the rest of the class down up to speed.
Consider: If Moscow was willing to basically bend over backwards a year ago when the situation was far better and no one knew that Putin and his friends were running a circus and not a government, what do you think the terms of any treaty would have to be now when Ukraine is about to get F-16s and Russia just suffered through a Not-Mutiny?
The terms from a year ago were already unacceptable to anyone except Russia’s (and Ukraine’s) oligarchs and the Liberals in the big cities who carry water for them. For the talks to be successful now, the terms would have to be Carthaginian for the West to sign off on them. We’re talking full surrender of sovereignty here.
Reparations. Regime-change. This much is obvious.
And if you and I can figure this out, then you better believe that the Kremlinoids know it too. I bet that even the resident short bus kid in the Kremlin, Press Secretary Peskov, can figure it out as well.
Basically, If they even go into these talks, it’s all over.
So, let us hope that they do not.
With all that explained, I’m ready to dismiss the class for today. If your brains got a good workout already, feel free to pack up your things and go to lunch. They’re serving microplastics in the cafeteria today, yum! For those of you interested in the subject matter and who want to learn some more though, stick around. Remedial Russia is finished, Advanced Russia is now in session.
I believe that these negotiations are a psy-op aimed at deceiving Moscow.
You can see how Washington might dangle the possibility of talks and a ceasefire to Moscow to basically lure them into a trap, I hope. Remember: Russia’s elites, all of them, even the “hardliners” that were willing to roll the dice on the SMO, do not want this war and are desperate to “freeze” i.e., de-intensify and stretch out the conflict while reintegrating with the West again. At every single step of the way, they have dragged their feet and fought tooth and nail against escalating the conflict. They do not want to launch a war economy, they do not want to mobilize a real army, they do not want to cut the gas and other raw material supplies to Ukraine and Europe off and they do not want to permanently cut ties with the Anglo-Satanists.
So, basically, with these negotiations being dangled like a carrot in front of the oligarchs’ faces, Washington can discourage hard, but necessary measures being taken by the Kremlin. Because if Moscow believes in, or wants to believe against all evidence that there is a light at the end of the tunnel, they will continue to do nothing but lose slowly and gracefully while thinking that there will be a way to save their asses via the negotiations. Again: Kremlin desperately wants to avoid having to do anything at all to change the current pro-West, Liberal, anti-Russian status quo in the country at any cost. Just look at the Shoigu situation. Anyone else, even if they were not toppled, would be fired anyways for almost bringing the country to civil war. But not in the Russian Federation, apparently. In “Putin’s Russia” as the Liberals like to say, they don’t even arrest the guy who tried to overthrow the government because … well, because they well and truly are just too damn moral for this world, I guess.
And there are patriots within Russia who dare to complain while living in a moral superpower.
When the Kremlin gets tricked again with these fake negotiations, it will only be further proof of how just and good and sweet and naive Russia’s ruling elites are.
Although not too bright, admittedly.
A quick counter-point:
The Texeira leaks stated that negotiations in 2023 were unlikely according to US intelligence. These leaks ended up getting a lot of hits. But much has changed since then. The Prigozhin march and the fence-sitting of Moscow’s elites changed the situation drastically, to say nothing of the subsequent loss of Wagner and the complete inability of the Russian army to make any gains anywhere.