North Korea to the Rescue! Nork Weapons Might Save the Russian Not-War Effort!

North Korea is a serious country run by serious leaders.

I had given up on the whole North Korean weapons delivery hype a long time ago. Moscow was clearly doing everything in its power to estrange the few allies they had (or used to have) and so I thought we could kiss the Nork stockpiles goodbye. See, unlike Russia, North Korea is a serious country with serious leadership that is well-prepared for a serious war and not just a comprador elite. Furthermore, the North Korean elite is North Korean, not a xenocracy. That means that they probably haven’t sold off their country to the highest bidder like the “Russian” elite has. North Korea is now saving the Kremlin’s sorry hide with the promised ammo.

Back in October, the Guardian was already pearl-clutching about Best Korea swooping in to save the day. Here:

In pouring rain, a jubilant crowd waving pompoms and flowers greeted the Russian foreign minister as he stepped on to the airport asphalt in Pyongyang.

While the heavily choreographed welcoming scenes were a familiar sight in totalitarian North Korea, Sergei Lavrov’s rare visit to the country came amid mounting evidence that Pyongyang has started to provide artillery rounds to Russia, opening up a supply line that could have profound implications for the war in Ukraine.

This month, the US said as many as 1,000 North Korean shipping containers bearing “equipment and munitions” had been sent to Russia “in recent weeks”.

The White House released satellite imagery revealing what it said were approximately 300 containers assembled in Najin, a port in north-east North Korea, and delivered via sea and rail to a depot near Tikhoretsk in south-west Russia, about 180 miles from the Ukrainian border.

US intelligence reports have been corroborated by the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), a London-based thinktank that last week published a report that concluded: “Russia has likely begun shipping North Korean munitions at scale.”

Analysing high-resolution satellite images, Rusi said three Russian cargo vessels linked to the country’s military had been sailing between the North Korean port of Rajin and the secretive port facility in Dunai, in Russia’s far east, making at least five round trips beginning in mid-August.

The thinktank said the ships first set sail a few weeks after the Russian defence ministry, Sergei Shoigu, travelled to North Korea and was shown the latest models of the country’s weaponry by the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un. Since then, Kim has travelled to Russia’s far east and offered Vladimir Putin his full support for Moscow’s “sacred fight” against the west.

Shortly after the Kim-Putin summit, the Beyond Parallel project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies thinktank in Washington analysed separate satellite images that it said “captured a dramatic and unprecedented level of freight railcar traffic at North Korea’s Tumangang rail facility”, which is located on the border with Russia.

“The level of rail traffic is far greater than what Beyond Parallel has observed at the facility during the past five years, even compared with pre-Covid-19 levels,” its report said. “Given that Kim and Putin discussed some military exchanges and cooperation at their recent summit, the dramatic increase in rail traffic likely indicates North Korea’s supply of arms and munitions to Russia.”

The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected western accusations that it was buying North Korean weaponry and ammunition.

They also deny it at home. This is probably because they are embarrassed by the fact that the massive arsenals that Russia possesses on paper have actually been sold off by Putin’s friends and Yeltsin before him. They don’t want to admit that they need to buy drones from Iran (they denied that too, remember?) or shells and rockets from N. Korea.

Artillery has been seen as crucial for Ukraine and Russia in the conflict to date, with some analysts calling it the “king of battle” despite a focus on newer, hi-tech weapons.

“If confirmed, North Korea’s supplying of significant quantities of munitions to Moscow could have profound consequences for the war in Ukraine,” said Joe Byrne, a research analyst at Rusi. “Russia wouldn’t be going to the North Koreans if they did’n’t have to … For the Russians, a major North Korean supply line will alleviate their munition hunger.”

Maj Patrick Hinton, an artillery officer in the British army and recent visiting fellow at Rusi who closely studies the war in Ukraine, said North Korea had a large stockpile of artillery shells and rockets that were compatible with the Soviet and Russian weapons systems being used by Moscow.

He said North Korea probably transferred two types of munitions used by Russia in the war – Soviet-era 122mm howitzer rounds and 122mm Grad rockets.

“Despite sanctions, North Korea has the ability to manufacture a lot of ammunition and has amassed significant stockpiles. This is something they have prioritised,” Hinton said.

The US has not specified the number of artillery rounds it believes North Korea has transferred to Russia.

Col Ants Kiviselg, the head of military intelligence in the Estonian defence forces (EDF), estimated that the 1,000 sea containers reportedly shipped to Russia held a total of 300,000-350,000 artillery rounds.

At a new conference last Friday he said that the daily consumption of artillery ammunition by the Russian troops was 10,000 rounds, so this amount would be enough to last around one month. He added: “The supplies from North Korea indicate that Russia plans to continue its war in Ukraine for a long time and is taking concrete steps towards doing so.”

Questions remain with regards to the quality of the munitions being supplied by Pyongyang.

In 2010, the North Korean army fired about 170 shells at Yeonpyeong, South Korea, of which more than half fell in the waters around the island.

Hinton said poorly made ammunition would have an “inconsistent performance”, but given the very large numbers involved, a lack of precision and the occasional misfires would not make a massive difference. “Quality becomes quantity in itself,” he said.

Meanwhile, Moscow has been expanding its domestic missile production beyond prewar levels. Putin has made military production one of Russia’s priorities, raising defence spending in 2024 to nearly 6% of gross domestic product, after a 3.9% increase this year and 2.7% rise in 2021.

Right, but that money is going into oligarchs’ pockets because Russia is fighting this war as an LLC. There are no mass mobilizations. There is no nationalization of industry. They pay government officials with PMCs on the side like Shoigu money to “hire” soldiers. It is simply embezzlement on a massive scale. But the West likes to play up the Russian threat, of course, to secure more money for Kiev.

Last month, Russia’s biggest weapons producer, the state-owned Rostec, said production volumes for various types of weapons had increased between two and 10 times.

“For Russia, the supply of strike munitions is increasing. In October 2022, Russia was producing approximately 40 long-range missiles a month. Now it is producing over 100 a month,” wrote Jack Watling, a senior research fellow for land warfare at Rusi, in a recent report entitled Ukraine Must Prepare for a Hard Winter.

“The lack of a breakthrough in Ukraine’s summer offensive and the shift in materiel advantage mean that Kyiv must fight carefully if it is to retain the initiative.”

My interview guest alleged the same thing — that Russia had managed to increase domestic production of weaponry, and that this was a ray of hope. So that’s good. But so much for China being Russia’s military factory going forward. Lol. Do you remember when ZAnon was saying that with a straight face? That this was Russia + China + Iran against the West? These people should stick to making fun of the Demonrats in Congress and stay out of geopolitics because it was actually North Korea, who is frenemies with China, that stepped up to the plate.

There are a lot of theories about China and North Korea that are worth exploring to understand who really runs these countries and why. I plan to do this eventually. For now though, suffice it to say that there is a political faction in the West that wants to use Russia against China. We’ve covered these people on this blog before:

Alternatively, there probably is a Western group that wants to use China against Russia. For decades, Russia refused to move closer to Beijing until only very recently. They were probably told to stay away by their Langley handlers.

As for North Korea, it is in their interest to gain some more leverage over China. Compared to North Korea, the Chinese elite is compromised and beholden to the West. I mean, why else did the West decided to move all their manufacturing there, right after sending Kissinger over to talk to the top Communists there? In general, Capital needs Communism because no other system is as good at destroying and enslaving target populations as messianic Communism has been. These deculturalized, uprooted, starving former peasants can then be remolded into barracks-dwelling urban proletariat who provide the cheap workforce that big capital needs to continue making profits. China obviously has at least some close ties with the elite in the West, which is the transnational elite of the world, really. If China’s elite was as anti-West as North Korea, there wouldn’t be large factories there and they’d be living in North Korean conditions. So, it makes sense why North Korea would help Russia, while China continues to sanction Russia and bid for future Western contracts to reconstruct Ukraine.

So yeah, consider all those possibilities at once if you can.

I’ll organize my thoughts about China eventually and spell it all out for everyone eventually.

Over on Twitter, I saw an analysis I thought was worth sharing. Patricia Marins, a Brazilian housewife who decided to start reporting on this war for some reason, has had consistently good analyses of the situation. I wouldn’t be surprised to learn that she has some kind of spook background. Either way, in terms of raw information, I find myself impressed by what she brings to the table. I rarely ever read the Western analysts or NAFO propagandists because I know the sources that they rely on. Like that Kremlin leaks group that was revealed to just be Israeli agents because of their unhinged baying for Palestinian blood.

I digress though.

Let’s hear what Marins has to say. She is pro-NATO, so it is interesting to hear her admit that, yes, a gigantic pipeline of ammunition from North Korea could improve Russia’s fortunes in the war. Here:

The North Korean deliveries provide new capabilities to Russian forces. As I reported in September, the agreement with North Korea would be based 122mm rockets with a range of 40km, 122mm and 152mm artillery shells, as well as the KN-09 system, with its guided missiles.

I also mentioned an estimated quantity of 10 million shells from North Korea, being transferred to Russia, which served as a basis for many analysts and intelligence services. Now, let's write this down: The Russians are expected to complete their training on the KN-09 system in 2 weeks, and deploy it in Ukraine, with each unit equipped with 8 powerful 300mm guided missiles, capable of reaching a range of 200km-240km.

These new deliveries have put the allies in a challenging position, especially since Ukraine has not received any significant shipments in months.

Maybe For the first time since the war began, the Russian forces, with the assistance of North Korea, are surpassing the Western forces in terms of technological advancement on the frontline. This is more evident in the new Lancets with a range of 70km, the effective electronic warfare capabilities, and now the KN-09 system, which outperforms the HIMARS by more than double the range. Not to mention the large deliveries of the 122mm with 40km range, what outrange most of the western artilleries.

As I'm reporting since several months, the gradual reduction of western support are degrading the Ukrainaine forces to a dangerous limit. The Ukrainian hope rests on a potential unexpected move from the US. I am monitoring reports regarding the 31 Abrams tanks, not just about the tanks themselves, but also the possibility of a massive shipment that could include missiles and numerous Infantry Fighting Vehicles (IFVs). This would provide enough equipment for Ukraine to maintain its defensive lines. However, it is important to note that this remains a remote possibility, but for me, is currently the only conceivable factor that could prevent a Western defeat. (On the video a Russian soldier thanks the North Koreans for the 122mm rockets, with longer range than the Russian ones.)

Lots to unpack here.

First of all, it is a time-honored strategy of Kiev to beg for help to prevent the front from collapsing (Western-facing propaganda) while claiming that they’ve got Russia on its last legs (domestic propaganda). Also, the UAF would need more to be able to continue attacking, not to defend. They’re not being pushed anywhere except Avdeevka, slowly. Perhaps by New Year’s Russia will be able to take back this suburb of Donetsk. Maybe.

She continues:

This is a post that nobody wants to read, and even after reading it, most people don't believe it, regardless of who wrote it or how much evidence is provided. Himars outperformed?

The Himars rockets continue to be jammed even after the second upgrade, but it is still a great weapon with mobility capacity. The battlefield will adjust to any weapon over time. That's just how things work. We can't say much about the KN-09 until we see it in action, except for the announced range, that outrange the HIMARS in more than two times.

People are experiencing a harsh reality after months of propaganda. The truth is that Western politicians have gradually abandoned support for Ukraine, and people still haven't realized that unless something significant is announced, the war is heading towards defeat. It is on the path to defeat due to several factors, including a lack of manpower, ammunition, political will, and a basic budget to pay salaries in Ukraine.

Well, there you have it. Ukraine about to collapse in two more weeks unless Washington sends more money. Let’s see. The part about the KN-09 was interesting though. The North Koreans apparently have some very impressive hardware.

Now, this North Korea weapons story is also somewhat embarrassing for ZAnon because they always categorically denied that Russia suffered from any ammo hunger. I don’t see ZAnon actually cheering on the NORK ammo shipments even though it is the only good news that we’ve had in a long while. This is because the Kremlin doesn’t mention it and wants to play it down, so they make sure that their propaganda agents don’t mention it.

Maybe this relates to the China theory, possibly, that I outlined above, somehow.

All in all, speculation aside, having more ammo than your opponents is a good thing. Russia, however, has been unable to use their artillery to any real strategic effect. That is, they use their artillery superiority to cover up for the lack of men and their inability to do combined-arms offensives, which require close coordination, training and competence among the higher-ups, which Russia does not have on account of the military being so shockingly degraded as a result of first Serdyukov’s looting and then Shoigu’s “professionalization reforms”. The Russian military higher-ups have largely proven themselves to be sadistic, incompetent and possibly even for sale. So I’d be surprised to see them use this ammo to do much other than to keep on holding on to what they have by putting in the bare amount of effort.

THEY BETTER NOT SELL IT OFF TO THE WEST!!!

…

But alright alright, let’s put aside the pessimism for just a bit.

If there really are 10 million shells on the way and weapons that can surpass Metal Gear HIMARS, then this is good news indeed. I also have no trouble believing that Kiev needs to be rearmed. You fire off missiles and shells and then you need more — simple as. Furthermore, Kiev has been really suffering from shell hunger the entire war, so this is nothing new. They just usually make their shots count for more, and have used WWII methods successfully against Russia’s WWI methods to make up for the deficit.

But, c’mon, let’s be real for a moment here.

The goals of this war are not what both sides are pretending that they are. Washington doesn’t really need to liberate Donbass. Ukraine will be allowed into the EU regardless. Probably.

And the goal of the war wasn’t really to take back some irrelevant blown out commieblock towns and uphold the territorial sacredness of the Ukraine, it was to cull the Slavic population and to make a killing for the politicians and oligarchs.

I don’t see any reason to believe that the West will abandon Kiev now.

Besides, we have heard that they had abandoned Kiev about 6 million times already. They might burn eventually Zelensky, sure, because he has probably stolen a bit too much, too fast, but why would they give up on the war when they’re winning so much for so little?

So there you have it.

Don’t say I never mention the good news.

You can go and tell all your friends that Russia will win this war in just two months, two weeks and two days more. Make sure to link me!