Who knows if this means anything or whether it's merely bullshit, but this morning on MSNBC, Joe Scarborough, went out of his way to mention, Li Hui, China's former Ambassador to Russia who speaks fluent Russian and happens to be on very good terms with Putin. Anyway, Li Hui might be meeting with Zelensky. "If" it's true then it means everyone is interested in negotiating. So if an agreement is reached, it would certainly elevate China internationally as well as help Creepy Joe's 2024 presidential campaign.
MOA noted that the Chinese government has confirmed that they're sending Li Hui to Ukraine for "in-depth communication with all parties." So I'm going with Option 4, that it's time for a peace treaty. At least I get to hope my predictions come true.
If Option 3 comes to pass, and the land bridge and Kerch Bridge to Crimea are cut off, is that really the end of the road for Russia? They can still supply Crimea by sea.
Regarding the possibility of peace - it could be the case if the West thinks time works for them. But aren't Americans on the clock, too? With their economic problems and the urgent necessity to kick ass? Either way, Strelkov views a Minsk-n+1 scenario as a defeat because the war will continue one day (with boomers in the grave, and the new generation is full of anime fags).
The severance of the land bridge to the Crimea would be a terrible political blow against the Russian Federation. Whose disastrous nature even Gonzalo Lira and Yuri Podoliaka couldn't probably deny... Although scratch that, they would see 50D chess in a pull out beyond the Urals.
Honestly, you might be right. Although with that view, it could also be considered cuck porn. Incidentally, this is why I can't watch DPRK propaganda for long - getting jelly.
I personally think a peace treaty benefits the Dems, so timing is everything. The same ghouls who got rid of Tucker to calm the waters for creepy Joe might be interested in negotiations.
Personally I think it's impossible to know what's going on behind the scenes as well as the exact state of the war, there's too much false propaganda, however everyone I've seen who links to MacGregor, Ritter, Lira, etc has been a complete moron, with utterly failed predictions and a total unwillingness to own up to prior predictions that turned out to be wrong, so my inclination is to run to the opposite of whatever these idiots are shilling. So I'll go with #3, but again with the caveat that I really lack the knowledge to make a fully educated decision.
That being said, I think there is some behind the scenes deal between the globohomo west and globohomo Russian leaders determining the outcome and timing of the war, I just question whether or not the globohomo west will abrogate the deal when they see globohomo Russian weakness and go in for the kill out of greed.
Fully agree on Lira, although it's curious to admit that even such a venerable individual as César Tort got infatuated with Lira's hairy Chilean chest. Love is blind (as Russians say).
The curious thing about the Putinian condition is that the demise of the current Kremlin régime would spell doom for the continued physical survival of Putin's nipples. There is a debate, however, on whether Putin's brain possesses the cognisance thereof. As the Russian cultists Goy Gaya opined, Putin did seem like procrastinating his 2022-02-22 invasion till the last moment, as if resisting his merciless superordinates.
Btw, I have never put it in writing here, so here it goes - have you ever thought how the Bucha incident could be a false flag purely on the grounds of the namesake being homonymous to the English word "butcher"? Encountered this view on Mikhailove's LiveJournal around half a year ago. It seems to trigger normies, for what it's worth (and their consciousness is akin to a black box to me).
The butcher homonym was obvious immediately and it was picked by the Brits who are sensitive to those sounds and sophisticated PR - butcha was announced a day after one of Boris Johnson's visits to Kiev. It's a hoax.
I've heard the argument that Putin's nipples would be in trouble if Russia loses the war, and it makes some sense, but it would depend both how the loss occurred, how it was sold in the media, and also -- to who would he lose power to? The Russian populists all have a boost pressed firmly in their faces and have no voice, and the oligarchs like Putin as their compromise candidate who would be hard to replace. Even if Putler loses this war his popularity will likely stay relatively high; "look guys, I fired a couple of mid-level career officers who were corrupt and made us lose!". So I don't really have a strong feeling about it. Re: Bucha, yes I had heard part of the reason why it was chosen as the false flag location was that it sounded like "butcher" in English.
The consensus seems to be that the West is intent on the Libya scenario of breaking Russia apart, part-occupied, part-chaotic and civil warrish. Why else start this mess to begin with? Why arm Poland and coup Belarus and Kazakhstan?
The war furthers a lot of globohomo objectives regardless of any specific military outcome. These include:
1. First, it was designed to shift the focus away from a flailing COVID narrative without allowing any of the perpetrators to pay for false fear-mongering, such as Dr. Fauci, the CDC, and the plethora of doctors, nurses, scientists, government and media organizations that pushed it not just nationally but worldwide.
2. Second, it providing a “Russia’s at fault” excuse for politicians to shift blame for soaring inflation, which was fundamentally caused by the $11+ trillion dollars printed during COVID in the U.S. and had nothing to do with Russia.
3. Third, as you say, the Ukraine war gave the U.S. establishment the opportunity to attempt to destroy Russia and carve it into many pieces for future exploitation.
Other establishment objectives advanced by the war include the following:
4. The war furthers the Great Reset agenda pushed by the World Economic Forum (WEF). Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe and one of the top exporters of grain worldwide, and the disruption caused by the war is causing food prices to soar. This may in turn lead to starving refugee swarms from Africa into Europe, seen as a plus by the WEF to help crush populist discontent in western countries.
5. The U.S. military industrial complex gets massively enriched. The Senate approved the initial $40 billion aid bill with no checks or balances on the aid (Rand Paul tried to insert a special inspector general to oversee the funds but failed), and there have also been many follow-up spends totaling additional tens of billions of dollars with additional funds from allies. According to a CBS documentary only 30% of U.S. supplied arms/munitions reached its final destination. Roughly 10% of U.S. manufacturing output pre-war went into weapons production, or about $220 billion/year, so the money to be made is enormous. Compare this with Russia’s total military budget, which in 2021 was only about $63 billion/year.
6. The amount of graft and kickbacks to the military industrial complex and American politicians is a significant portion of the aid supplied, with corrupt Ukraine politicians taking a cut and funneling much of the rest of the funds back into America, which is par for the course in Ukraine except in terms of the size of the graft. Additionally Blackrock gets to buy up ultra-depressed Ukrainian assets for pennies on the dollar in coordination with Zelensky.
7. The U.S. (and U.K.) achieves its objective of preventing Nordstream 2 from going online, which would have solidified longterm ties between Russia and Germany to the U.S.’s strategic detriment, and even Nordstream 1 has been scuttled. The U.S. blew up Nordstream 2 as conclusively proven by Seymour Hersh, which is a traditional casus belli for war by Germany; however, Germany has been unable to respond due to Germany remaining militarily occupied by the U.S. since the end of World War 2 (119 U.S. bases in Germany as of 2020).
8. Globohomo gets to purge Ukraine of Russian influence by banning the Russian Orthodox Church and by banning all opposition parties.
9. The U.S.’s seizure of $400 billion dollars of Russian central bank funds has shocked the world, triggering an upcoming de-dollarization and a potential upcoming end of the petrodollar system, which would be a cataclysmic shift; every country in the world looked at what the U.S. did and asked, if they can do this to Russia what would stop them from doing this to us if they decide to? Therefore if Saudi oil can be traded in non-dollar currencies (as they are currently signaling), there will be much less incentive for other countries to hold dollars, which in turn will trigger a massive influx of dollars back into the U.S. and dramatically increase inflation, possibly to hyper-inflationary levels. But this too may be part of globohomo’s Hegelian dialectical plan: cause hyperinflation as the problem, usher in CBDCs as the chosen false solution when the desperate masses cry out for help and institute a level of micro-managed tyranny never before seen in the world.
So the war furthers all these objectives while Russia fights, in a grinding, plodding, expensive war (both in men, materials and funds) its own genetic and religious brethren in a country named “Borderland” in Russian.
There are small signs that globohomo may be looking to move on from the conflict in the future, such as a January 2023 RAND study recommending a wind-down. Regardless, the war looks like a win for globohomo regardless of any specific military outcome.
Yeah the longer this fake war goes on the more it begins to show. Its just another Vietnam, meant to be a distraction and the policy was not to win. Another plausibe scenario is that Ukraine is going to be the new Isreal 2.0 as the ancient jewish homeland of Khazaria was there many ages ago. They first have to kill off the white slavs living their before they can rule as kings of the goyim tho.
But i agree with your points, military victory on the battlefield doesnt mean anything at this point. Because neither side is capable of delivering the knockout blow.
Comparing it to Vietnam is doing it injustice. Sure, there are some similar features - namely, the general reluctance of the White people to kill their enemies. But America at least put in some resources - and it's not their fault that the American public was utterly rotten at the time. Meanwhile, the Russians are bankrupt both on the moral and materialistic fronts.
Regarding the Jews in the Ukraine - I just don't see it. The Jews refused Stalin's offer of Birobijan, they are cucking to the local Palestinian savages, and you're telling me they could summon up the 1940s spirit of aliya? In this day and age? Nah, the Jew is toast. I would rather focus on Türkiye with their designs on Armenia, Hungary and the Crimea.
Shifting the focus, shifting the blame...For whom? Who is blaming, and who is focusing? You seem kinda lost in the conspiratard thinking about muh' people's agency. The real people know that their kids go to school with blacks, and they support it. The real people know their kids get hormonal treatment and chop their genitals off - and they support it. Your little BitChute bubble of Chris-Martenson-watching soccer moms on Facebook is irrelevant. Always has been.
Regarding the refugees - sure, as a tactical stepping stone. Don't the Europeans have their borders wide open anyway? The biggest hurdle seems to be to make those poor Arabs move beyond the sea.
The Orthodox church in the Ukraine is all fine? It just split between Constantinople and Moscow, what's the big deal? The Moscow church betrayed the Donbass uprising anyway.
Hyperinflation seems to be the only short-term existential danger to the neo-Christian empire. I'm curious as to whether your scenario with CBDCs could let them overcome the hurdle. Ties in with the general question as to how controlled or how chaotic the American government in fact is.
But Russia is not even fighting, that's the point. It's all a show for idiots at best. Half a year ago they were bombing Ukrainian infrastructure with little to show for it (I barely ever had power outages). Such actions are arguably best viewed in the light of a demilitarisation of the RF.
The globohomo won in 1945 and didn't win at all. I.e., its victory in Europe is total, whereas its advance in Asia is traditionally arrested.
P.S. What's the deal with recalling "Hegelian dialectic" by people such as yourself? Like, I highly doubt you have the slightest idea of Hegel as taught by Marxist scholars or anything. Hegel was just a random German idealistic philosopher, popular in Russia for a time, still taught in the Ukraine... But listening to you, one would think he's some Jew that invented transvestitism lol.
The way the media works in the west is that they have a constant meta-narrative in place. The meta-narrative goes from a period of months to a year or two and it is what the population talks about, thinks about, acts on. There is only one meta-narrative going at any given time because the public is like a big, dumb animal. Maybe it is different where you are in Ukraine but in the U.S., this meta narrative is incredibly powerful.
The underlying basis of the meta-narrative is all false and lies though, fed to the retard population to keep them interested and entertained. Given COVID had a flu-equivalent mortality rate and the shutdowns were designed to usher in permanent vote-by-mail fraud and print $11 trillion out of thin air, the best way for globohomo to prevent people from looking too closely into their scam was to shift gears to the next one.
I agree with you that globohomo won in 1945 and this is all mop-up for them, but I disagree about Asia - China has a Rothschild owned central bank as far as I can figure it, and Japan and South Korea are clearly globohomo protectorates.
I'm not quite sure re: your question re: the Hegelian dialectic - are you asking what it is? Globohomo will force an issue to be represented in one of only two ways, with their "solution" planned ahead of time. Here's Eustace Mullins on the general concept: "The central bank owners adopted the Hegelian dialectic, the dialectic of materialism, which regards the World as Power, and the World as Reality. It denies all other powers and all other realities. It functions on the principle of thesis, antithesis and a synthesis…Thus the World Order organizes and finances Jewish groups; it then organizes and finances anti-Jewish groups; it organizes Communist groups; it then organizes and finances anti-Communist groups. It is not necessary for the Order to throw these groups against each other; they seek each other out like heat-seeking missiles and try to destroy each other. By controlling the size and resources of each group, the World Order can always predetermine the outcome. In this technique, members of the World Order are often identified with one side or the other. John Foster Dulles arranged financing for Hitler, but he was never a Nazi. David Rockefeller may be cheered in Moscow, but he is not a Communist…a distinguishing trait of a member of the World Order, although it may not be admitted, is that he does not believe in anything but the World Order."
It's all about the weather. If they are waiting on the weather, assume "fake". Five months ago, it was "waiting for the ground to freeze" (5D)- ground froze; nothing happened. Now it's waiting for the ground to dry. Ground will dry. And then? - Possible nuance is who is saying it? I see Prigozhin is waiting for the ground to dry; but I am pretty sure it''s also coming from Nato sources. I bet:: 1.
I still remember the Pro Russian telegram channels repeating over and over again that the Ukrainians would all freeze to death and that General winter came to save the Russians because they began targeting Ukrainians energy infantructure lol
Yeah, it's just a coincidence that April-June 1942, 1943 and 1944 saw no general offensives... It's alright to be skeptical, but one should be careful not to deny the existence of spring rains.
Interesting post. Option 3 sounds horribly likely but Russia cannot afford the land bridge to Crimea being broken. It will leave Crimea once again without a reliable water supply and make supplying Crimea almost entirely dependent on the Kerch bridge, and that's very vulnerable as we have seen. That will leave Crimea basically indefensible. And if any of the traitors in the Kremlin (and here I include Gorbachev - oh I beg your pardon - of course his current reincarnation, Putin) imagine that the west will then offer a compromise peace they are living in la-la land. It will be like the scent of new rich blood to a pack of sharks. Then they will really pile in - go all out on getting the Romanians into Transnistia, the Poles into Belarus & Ukraine, the Kazahks, Georgians, etc etc. And start moving NATO troops into Ukraine to start pushing into Russia. Oh and if the Russian oligarchs imagine the west will allow them to continue, as was the case last time - it won't happen. Russia will be dismembered and all its resources given to western multinationals. If this happens my only hope is that the traitors like Gorbachev (beg pardon, I mean the current reincarnation) are dragged to the gallows and suffer Saddam's fate (he'll have to be dragged, he's such a fucking pathetic miserable little coward).
I don't believe those fuckers in the Kremlin, and the arch-fuck himself actually want a negotiated peace, if they did they would have done what would have promptly delivered that by starting to win the war decisively. I can't believe they are so stupid as not to realize that. The only other possible explanation is out and out treachery whereby they imagine the west will reward their treachery. Well they'll have a nasty surprise coming.
Oh, and all this talk about de-dollarization! Just did a deep dive into what's going on with the dollar. Well guess what - sure quite a few counties are shifting out the dollar - but just take a look at what's been happening to Chinese holdings of US treasuries and US bonds - and you'll find one may go down for a while but then the other goes up. It's the bloody Chinese that are propping up the US dollar - if the Chinese started to seriously dedollarize, the US dollar would be kaput in 5-10 years. So one might wonder why the Chinese are doing this. One suggestion is from PCR, that the Chinese don't want anything to change anytime soon - they would rather see it all play out very slowly maybe over 50 years or so. Oh, and if Russia collapses don't be too surprised if they and proxies (such as the Kazahks) pre-empt the west by grabbing most of Siberia and its resources.
PS and if anyone imagines using tactical nuclear weapons might save Russia - forget it. Putin doesn't have the balls to do it and the west knows this. They understand him only too well - in fact they know that even if they actually launched an all out nuclear attack on Russia, Putin would be too paralyzed by fear and indecision to even order retaliation.
The US and China are both parasites sucking on each other, one cannot survive with out the other. The west has been outsourcing their industry for years to China for cheap labour. Meanwhile the west relies to much in cheap Chinese imports. Xi might be eating icecreams with Putin but secretly he is eyeing on resource rich siberia and is covertly sending massive chinese into the Russian far east and he cannot stop trading with the west as this would lead to a massive economic collapse. China is still a wildcard but i know there are honorary jews sitting in the Chinese communist party because America helped Communist China by withhelding arms shipments for the Chinese nationalists. I enough China is not Russias friend or ally .
This feels very similar to the Russian winter offensive narrative that never played out. Announcing planned offensives on the news constantly seems to be more about public support and morale boosting than real life. I think the status quo will hold and nothing at all will happen. Maybe some minor back-and-forth exchanges of territory if anything.
The 2 Alex's at the Duran are now saying that Russia never talked about a winter offensive, and they didn't either. As a casual viewer of their many videos I thought they did, but maybe not. But what is clear is that Russia-cheerleaders like Pepe Escobar, Scott Ritter, and Col. McGregor certainly did. If you believed them, as I did, this war should have been over by now. Of course, blaming it on the fact that the Ukraine winter was too mild, the ground didn't freeze, and the fields were impassible due to mud, seems like a pretty good excuse.
In a way, one should not be surprized that there is a serious slow motion coup attempt taking place in Moscow, because Putin never dealt with the deep infiltration of the Russian state & commercial apparatus - I remember watching interviews with Deputat Evgeny Federov back in 2015 when the first Donbass war was underway, & Federov stated then that the Russian state is totally captured by US/CIA/MI6 agentura. I think those interviews are still on You Tube, with English subs. He says it all, he says for example, that Putin doesn't control the government or the parliament/duma, & that they openly defy him. And the problem is deeper still, because Russia is a westernized country, as a consequence of commie urbanization/industrialization, morons like Tim Kirby can say what they what, the guy is a fucking idiot (& as an aside, I really take exception with the way he spoke in his cunt dismissive manner to Rolo during that podcast, the wanker), go see what Federov said for those interested, back in 2015. When the SMO started the Mossad agentura did a runner, but the deep level CIA/MI6 agentura remained, & they are hijacking everything as we speak, this is what Prigozhin is alterting people to. But we will see, if the Ukro offensive is successful, how will Putin survive it? Maybe that is the way he is to be taken down, I don't know. It doesn't look good, either way.
I'm still at option 2. Mostly because the other side has their own problems. And luckily in war the other side also has a vote... Its too easy to just highlight the problems of one side and then predict their downfall.
Yes, the West has huge problems. And, Prigozhin is always predicting disaster, even as he presses slowly forward. So I think #2 is more likely than #3. But I won't hold it against Rolo if he turns out to be wrong.
I'm paying Rolo's tribute (actually, it's mere peanuts) for information and for good humor. I don't expect anybody on Substack to have a crystal ball.
Unless there are no sides. And unless this is not a war. The view I share with the Sofa Legion Strategist is that the RF is a crypt-colony given an order to self-destruct. That's the only explanation as to why the Russians are attacking the safest section of the frontline - in the Donbass.
I will respect the Autark's rule here in the Citadel, and avoid criticizing Putin himself. But obviously many of Putin's advisors are in cahoots with the WEF globalists and Zionists and Neocons, and are leading Russia to disaster.
Surely this faction's deepest fear is that the Russian people, who are mostly nationalists, will rise up and depose them. In fact some of those Russian patriots must also have Putin's ear. So there is an internal struggle going on. Will Russia self-destruct and yield to being raped by the West, or will a real defense emerge at some point?
And the same thing is going on in the USA and in Europe. Will the globalist traitors prevail, or will some sort of sanity eventually emerge?
The CPSU saved Russian statehood twice in a century. Not defending the CPSU would be tantamount to a spread of atheism in Saudi Arabia. An unheard-of treason. Easily imaginable for the White boys, of course.
I'll go with option 2. Ukraine will be forced to at least make a push by war-pigs in USA, cuz they've given them billions and they want something in return. The war-pigs insist that Ukraine lives bleed Russia.
Option 4: The Nothingburger - Sound and fury signifying nothing. "I believe that as soon as the rains stop and the ground dries up, things are going to get interesting." Right. I still haven't finished the corn I popped for the General Winter Russian offensive. It's getting quite stale.
Trench warfare on the western front in WWI was resolved only by a major screw-up. Hindenburg won in the east, and then enthusiastically proceeded to overextend in the west, and so met his demise from logistical inadequacies.
The loser here, if there is one, will be the party who pops their head up to charge, and has it blown off. If these guys really are chess players, they'll keep their heads down, and the war will continue to be a slow grind.
Not good movie material. Unless Zelensky has a contract with Netflix.
Russia seems to have better defensive lines set up than during the Kharkiv debacle. If the USA decided to send their Ukrainian troops to attack, then that is a sign that USA has the upper hand in their Ukraine province. If there are holes in the lines due to lack of men and material, the USA would know about it. I admit I am perplexed due to Russia's odd behavior. So my guess is a repeat of Kharkiv, but I am not sure.
I favour a modification of the second option. I think there will be a Ukrainian attack, but doubt it will achieve much. Then I expect the Russians will not advance far in turn.
It looks as if the Ukrainian attack is mainly a media effort. Military Summary channel reports that today the Russians whacked two of the new Ukrainian brigades in Nicolaev. Any actual attack in Zaporozhye can only be weak and will lack artillery and air support, and even anti-aircraft defence, as Dima reported that three of their remaining S-300 systems were destroyed in Kherson today along with the Gepard that was supposed to defend them. Larry Johnson also doubts that the Ukrainians can launch much of an offensive. https://sonar21.com/ukraines-promised-counter-offensive-destined-for-abject-failure/
A thing to note is that whatever problems of corruption and incompetence the Russian military may suffer from are likely to be even greater on the Ukrainian side.
I don't know who amongst the Russian leadership class could expect to benefit from a major Russian defeat. Putin would have to protect himself by blaming Shoigu and Gerasimov - who must feel strongly motivated to cover up their previous defalcations by doing all they now can to prop up their army in the south. (What has happened to the Russian forces which successfully fought off the Ukrainian attacks on Kherson and then skillfully retreated across the river? Presumably they are still at hand. ) After all the trouble to capture and then rebuild Mariupol, I think Putin will insist on a major effort to retain it. He probably made that clear when he talked to his generals in the south.
I suspect that Putin does not want spectacular victories and major advances. That would generate too much excitement and keep those who run the USA determined to do still more to continue the fighting there. It seems to me he would prefer to let the Americans blame the Ukrainians for failure and turn most of their attention to threatening a naval conflict with China. Continued low level conflict in Ukraine may be Russia's best option (especially if they have problems of corruption and organization which would become more evident at more severe levels of combat). That gives them the hope of slowly exhausting and demoralising the Ukrainian forces, without having to wreck the larger Ukrainian cities in order to defeat them. An implicit agreement between America and Russia to avoid 'big arrow' moves there once the ballyhoed Ukrainian offensive has been disposed of , would be in the interests of both powers.
It may well be that in order to restrain his most aggressive dogs of war, supplies and support to the Wagner forces have been withheld. That may not be the result of treason or corruption or personal differences. It may be a way of preventing them from being too successful and advancing too far, thereby attracting too much media attention and preventing the Americans from just turning their backs on Ukraine. The King can't allow a mercenary company to spoil his geopolitical plans.
Progozhin and Strelkov look like the only people who stand to gain from creating a ruckus. They focus too narrowly on the military. Their complaints probably have merit, but they should put them in a wider context and accept that honesty and a patriotic elite are not available options now. 'Near enough for government work' is not a good standard, but will probably suffice to see the Russians eventually through to a slow and messy kind of victory in Ukraine, whilst gaining prestige, influence and profit in the wider world - which will be far more advantageous to Russia than wrecking more towns in Ukraine and occupying more farmland.
What an absolutely delightful account, daddy Rolo! The paragraphs on the state of the Russian internal propaganda messaging are exquisite in particular! Haven't checked Soloviev's missives in quite a while myself though as my ears get tired of being raped by constant manly screaming. (That's one unfortunate downside to the Russians - their political shows are monkey-tier, no culture of debate, just hysterical screeching, with poor Nikolai Zlobin getting constantly bullied.)
On a tangential note, as I was trying to recall Zlobin's name, I have found this Russian LiveJournal which is as braindead as the Lira/Ritter/Macgregor clique - 7freiheit. Incidentally, it is led by a woman. Not sure whether it's of any note, but it did culturally enrich me - for example, she's so clueless to the Internet etiquette, she outright doxxed the IP of one of her commenters. This is the people we're dealing with - it's easy to forget they even exist, and yet there is no limit to normies' stupidity and vileness.
But back to our issue. Rain is a bitch. A huge bitch. It was rain that saved Moscow in October 1941 (of course, as Russian folk wisdom proclaims, "a bad dancer is hindered by his balls", so it takes an incredibly terrible or desperate commander to conduct offensives in mud, February-2022-style). It feels good to see the immensity of rain's role recognised for once. And the weather forecasts for Guliaipole in Zaporozhye predict the RNG procs of rain at 50% as late as 2023-05-06.
On the other hand, there certainly is a numerological argument about 2023 being a leap year of sorts. Just think, 2016 was Trump (& Harambe), 2020 was Corvid, 2022 the pseudo-war. 2024 is going to be a confluence of: 1) US election; 2) Russian election; 3) the anniversary of the last 2 Maidans in the Ukraine.
But as to the strategic choices available to the Kievan principality, Strelkov expects a feint offensive towards Russian proper ("the old RF"), mainly Belgorod or Bryansk. This way, Russian forces might get distracted in an irrelevant segment of the front. An eye-catching idea, yet I somewhat doubt whether it could be in the style of the Americans preferring a much slower boil for their frogs. Although an offensive without an outright capture of Belgorod could be conducted, I concede.
If you're going to start delving into sacred dates or whatever, you really need to understand astrotheology. I am convinced by a lot of the main arguments of astrology in general, but I don't know how to calculate specific years and dates that will be significant. But the strange timings of all the largest stock market collapses makes me thing that if someone had the time and inclination, they ought to invest in figuring out this stuff.
There is another argument voiced by Pelevin in his 2013 novel Batman Apollo. It is utterly schizophrenic, yet it could be of note here. The élites are asking an artificial intelligence or a magical bat-man as to how to get a desired result, and they receive an answer which might seem absurd. Yet they have tried it, and it works. So now, they are doing it large-scale - the riot of pussies in Russia, an orange revolution in the Ukraine, transvestites in Harry Potter, a co[r]vid plague, a pseudo-war, an advent of AI... And yes, the Star Wars movies that have destroyed the multi-billion franchise are part of the plan, too.
> "After the meeting, Rama learns the nature of these decisions. It turns out that vampires arrange everything in such a way that the Chaldeans perceive the ideas submitted to them as their own. But the vampires will learn about the need for the next step from the calendar with predictions. According to Enlil, the top of the vampire community knows how to dive into limbo and see the future. They write down everything they see in a special calendar, after which they send out predictions to different countries. According to this calendar, in 2012 in Russia there should be a "hairy riot", which the vampires are trying to arrange."
A comment by @MrSolPow under the recent Goy Gaya video has reminded me of the above.
> "Goy Gaia! I have one theory lined up that explains all the shit that is happening in the world: AI, like in the Wild West World, was asked to give out what needs to be done in order to achieve such and such goals by such and such a year. He gave out a strategy in which many steps on the way to the goal, at first glance, very absurd and even harmful to the beneficiary, by the type of sawing off his leg, sewing his hand, then back and so on 10 times, then eat shit, clean the stomach and drink soda. But in fact, this kind of thing: allocate money for the project (outwardly, it can be frankly delusional), set the conditions and requirements (the same delusional) and wait. Stars, politicians and other rabble for money will begin to perform, and the rest will repeat after them and profit. The dudes tested this technology on some local region for a short period of time - the experiment turned out to be successful."
The most likely scenarios is a succesfull Ukrainian Offensive Balaklaia/Izyum style or that the situation remains as it is. The front line has been static for many months now, both sides have been digging in and fortifing their positions laying thousands of landmines and traps in the large open fields.The Russians lost their chance and momentum for big battles of movement on the large Ukrainian steppes. Now the Ukrainians are ready everywhere and mined/fortified every border crossing or road from Belarus to Kharkov. Ukrainians have showed themselves masters of defense, the scale the Russians are fighting this war is just too small. Study the Wehrmachts advance in Ukraine in 1941 it was basicly 1 big tank battle in Dubno before they could just outflank and drive across the open fields straight to the Dnepr. The Soviet Donbas and Dnepr strategic counter offensive in Ukraine in 1943 they used around 2.6 million Soviet soldiers just to get to the Donbass back and to get to the Dnepr river they lost around 1 million men killed/wounded and missing just to give you a perspective. I think the Ukraine/Nato/US are perfectly fine the way the war is going, they are killing Russians and draining the Russian army for minor territorial gains. I mean what strategic value does Bakhmut even have at this point? Its just a Stalingrad type rubble on a crossroad intersection, after that there will be even harder nuts to crack like Slavjiansk, Kramatorsk and Kostjantynivka which are even bigger cities and you cannot just outflank or by pass these festungs either. It only means more grinding and storming by the Russians across mined open fields with Ukrainian artillery and drones zero'd in on the roads which means more losses. Ukaine still has the stategic initiative, they can attack wherever they want, Bakhmut is just a Stalingrad for them that binds the Russians while they can probe and attack elsewhere. Ukraine has been forcing crossings around the Dnepr in Kherson the last few days and even captured the islands at the mouth of the river leading into the black sea. Also the terrorist and partisan attacks inside Russia are still happening and the FSB seems unable to counter this. Yes things are really looking bleak for Russia, i certainly dont want to be a Russian infantrymen in a trench while western spy sattelites are basicly scanning evey inch of Ukraine 24/7 giving target lists to the Ukrainian army who then use drones with thermal vision to drop a bomb in your trench at night or strike at you with HIMARs or excalibur ammunition. In the end this will be come a drone war with remote controlled monster truck toys being packed with grenades charging enemy trenches. In which also Russia is at a distinct disadvantage as they are looking to China and Iran for their chips and drones. Which isnt really the best of the best quality unfortunatly for Russia.
I think you need to take whatever Prigozhin says with a full beaker of salt. He is a master. I mean he speaks a lot of truth plus a complex set of political messages. The fog of this war has been in the information dimension.
I don't want to weasel but I am going for Option 2. Ukraine needs to prove something and/or is pushed by the west. The question is what does the conclusion of Option 2 look like.
If they even make a small dent in a territory push and are able to retain it, it will be sold as a victory and the grind continues, which is the west's strategy.
I do not believe in this offensive at all. I suspect this so called special military operation is intended to trash the Donbass and drive out the local population. Then, when the dust settles, the oligarchs can gobble up the bread basket of the world for pennies on the dollar.
Some even say Ukraine is going to be the New Isreal 2.0 and that the local population has to be killed off in a unwinable exhausting war for both sides. It was also the ancient jew homeland of Khazaria in ages past.
Who knows if this means anything or whether it's merely bullshit, but this morning on MSNBC, Joe Scarborough, went out of his way to mention, Li Hui, China's former Ambassador to Russia who speaks fluent Russian and happens to be on very good terms with Putin. Anyway, Li Hui might be meeting with Zelensky. "If" it's true then it means everyone is interested in negotiating. So if an agreement is reached, it would certainly elevate China internationally as well as help Creepy Joe's 2024 presidential campaign.
China maintains terse neutrality with pidorashka
YouTube channels pitching multipolarity would like you to believe China and Russia are the best of buddies.
MOA noted that the Chinese government has confirmed that they're sending Li Hui to Ukraine for "in-depth communication with all parties." So I'm going with Option 4, that it's time for a peace treaty. At least I get to hope my predictions come true.
If Option 3 comes to pass, and the land bridge and Kerch Bridge to Crimea are cut off, is that really the end of the road for Russia? They can still supply Crimea by sea.
Regarding the possibility of peace - it could be the case if the West thinks time works for them. But aren't Americans on the clock, too? With their economic problems and the urgent necessity to kick ass? Either way, Strelkov views a Minsk-n+1 scenario as a defeat because the war will continue one day (with boomers in the grave, and the new generation is full of anime fags).
The severance of the land bridge to the Crimea would be a terrible political blow against the Russian Federation. Whose disastrous nature even Gonzalo Lira and Yuri Podoliaka couldn't probably deny... Although scratch that, they would see 50D chess in a pull out beyond the Urals.
Anime is based, aryan ethno-state simulator
Anime is part and parcel of the Western transvestite culture and must burn alongside the rest.
The japs create it for themselves... the fact that westerners like it is irrelevant to them.
Honestly, you might be right. Although with that view, it could also be considered cuck porn. Incidentally, this is why I can't watch DPRK propaganda for long - getting jelly.
I personally think a peace treaty benefits the Dems, so timing is everything. The same ghouls who got rid of Tucker to calm the waters for creepy Joe might be interested in negotiations.
The only thing that suits them is traitors handing Putin over
Personally I think it's impossible to know what's going on behind the scenes as well as the exact state of the war, there's too much false propaganda, however everyone I've seen who links to MacGregor, Ritter, Lira, etc has been a complete moron, with utterly failed predictions and a total unwillingness to own up to prior predictions that turned out to be wrong, so my inclination is to run to the opposite of whatever these idiots are shilling. So I'll go with #3, but again with the caveat that I really lack the knowledge to make a fully educated decision.
That being said, I think there is some behind the scenes deal between the globohomo west and globohomo Russian leaders determining the outcome and timing of the war, I just question whether or not the globohomo west will abrogate the deal when they see globohomo Russian weakness and go in for the kill out of greed.
Fully agree on Lira, although it's curious to admit that even such a venerable individual as César Tort got infatuated with Lira's hairy Chilean chest. Love is blind (as Russians say).
The curious thing about the Putinian condition is that the demise of the current Kremlin régime would spell doom for the continued physical survival of Putin's nipples. There is a debate, however, on whether Putin's brain possesses the cognisance thereof. As the Russian cultists Goy Gaya opined, Putin did seem like procrastinating his 2022-02-22 invasion till the last moment, as if resisting his merciless superordinates.
Btw, I have never put it in writing here, so here it goes - have you ever thought how the Bucha incident could be a false flag purely on the grounds of the namesake being homonymous to the English word "butcher"? Encountered this view on Mikhailove's LiveJournal around half a year ago. It seems to trigger normies, for what it's worth (and their consciousness is akin to a black box to me).
The butcher homonym was obvious immediately and it was picked by the Brits who are sensitive to those sounds and sophisticated PR - butcha was announced a day after one of Boris Johnson's visits to Kiev. It's a hoax.
I've heard the argument that Putin's nipples would be in trouble if Russia loses the war, and it makes some sense, but it would depend both how the loss occurred, how it was sold in the media, and also -- to who would he lose power to? The Russian populists all have a boost pressed firmly in their faces and have no voice, and the oligarchs like Putin as their compromise candidate who would be hard to replace. Even if Putler loses this war his popularity will likely stay relatively high; "look guys, I fired a couple of mid-level career officers who were corrupt and made us lose!". So I don't really have a strong feeling about it. Re: Bucha, yes I had heard part of the reason why it was chosen as the false flag location was that it sounded like "butcher" in English.
The consensus seems to be that the West is intent on the Libya scenario of breaking Russia apart, part-occupied, part-chaotic and civil warrish. Why else start this mess to begin with? Why arm Poland and coup Belarus and Kazakhstan?
The war furthers a lot of globohomo objectives regardless of any specific military outcome. These include:
1. First, it was designed to shift the focus away from a flailing COVID narrative without allowing any of the perpetrators to pay for false fear-mongering, such as Dr. Fauci, the CDC, and the plethora of doctors, nurses, scientists, government and media organizations that pushed it not just nationally but worldwide.
2. Second, it providing a “Russia’s at fault” excuse for politicians to shift blame for soaring inflation, which was fundamentally caused by the $11+ trillion dollars printed during COVID in the U.S. and had nothing to do with Russia.
3. Third, as you say, the Ukraine war gave the U.S. establishment the opportunity to attempt to destroy Russia and carve it into many pieces for future exploitation.
Other establishment objectives advanced by the war include the following:
4. The war furthers the Great Reset agenda pushed by the World Economic Forum (WEF). Ukraine is the breadbasket of Europe and one of the top exporters of grain worldwide, and the disruption caused by the war is causing food prices to soar. This may in turn lead to starving refugee swarms from Africa into Europe, seen as a plus by the WEF to help crush populist discontent in western countries.
5. The U.S. military industrial complex gets massively enriched. The Senate approved the initial $40 billion aid bill with no checks or balances on the aid (Rand Paul tried to insert a special inspector general to oversee the funds but failed), and there have also been many follow-up spends totaling additional tens of billions of dollars with additional funds from allies. According to a CBS documentary only 30% of U.S. supplied arms/munitions reached its final destination. Roughly 10% of U.S. manufacturing output pre-war went into weapons production, or about $220 billion/year, so the money to be made is enormous. Compare this with Russia’s total military budget, which in 2021 was only about $63 billion/year.
6. The amount of graft and kickbacks to the military industrial complex and American politicians is a significant portion of the aid supplied, with corrupt Ukraine politicians taking a cut and funneling much of the rest of the funds back into America, which is par for the course in Ukraine except in terms of the size of the graft. Additionally Blackrock gets to buy up ultra-depressed Ukrainian assets for pennies on the dollar in coordination with Zelensky.
7. The U.S. (and U.K.) achieves its objective of preventing Nordstream 2 from going online, which would have solidified longterm ties between Russia and Germany to the U.S.’s strategic detriment, and even Nordstream 1 has been scuttled. The U.S. blew up Nordstream 2 as conclusively proven by Seymour Hersh, which is a traditional casus belli for war by Germany; however, Germany has been unable to respond due to Germany remaining militarily occupied by the U.S. since the end of World War 2 (119 U.S. bases in Germany as of 2020).
8. Globohomo gets to purge Ukraine of Russian influence by banning the Russian Orthodox Church and by banning all opposition parties.
9. The U.S.’s seizure of $400 billion dollars of Russian central bank funds has shocked the world, triggering an upcoming de-dollarization and a potential upcoming end of the petrodollar system, which would be a cataclysmic shift; every country in the world looked at what the U.S. did and asked, if they can do this to Russia what would stop them from doing this to us if they decide to? Therefore if Saudi oil can be traded in non-dollar currencies (as they are currently signaling), there will be much less incentive for other countries to hold dollars, which in turn will trigger a massive influx of dollars back into the U.S. and dramatically increase inflation, possibly to hyper-inflationary levels. But this too may be part of globohomo’s Hegelian dialectical plan: cause hyperinflation as the problem, usher in CBDCs as the chosen false solution when the desperate masses cry out for help and institute a level of micro-managed tyranny never before seen in the world.
So the war furthers all these objectives while Russia fights, in a grinding, plodding, expensive war (both in men, materials and funds) its own genetic and religious brethren in a country named “Borderland” in Russian.
There are small signs that globohomo may be looking to move on from the conflict in the future, such as a January 2023 RAND study recommending a wind-down. Regardless, the war looks like a win for globohomo regardless of any specific military outcome.
Yeah the longer this fake war goes on the more it begins to show. Its just another Vietnam, meant to be a distraction and the policy was not to win. Another plausibe scenario is that Ukraine is going to be the new Isreal 2.0 as the ancient jewish homeland of Khazaria was there many ages ago. They first have to kill off the white slavs living their before they can rule as kings of the goyim tho.
But i agree with your points, military victory on the battlefield doesnt mean anything at this point. Because neither side is capable of delivering the knockout blow.
Comparing it to Vietnam is doing it injustice. Sure, there are some similar features - namely, the general reluctance of the White people to kill their enemies. But America at least put in some resources - and it's not their fault that the American public was utterly rotten at the time. Meanwhile, the Russians are bankrupt both on the moral and materialistic fronts.
Regarding the Jews in the Ukraine - I just don't see it. The Jews refused Stalin's offer of Birobijan, they are cucking to the local Palestinian savages, and you're telling me they could summon up the 1940s spirit of aliya? In this day and age? Nah, the Jew is toast. I would rather focus on Türkiye with their designs on Armenia, Hungary and the Crimea.
Shifting the focus, shifting the blame...For whom? Who is blaming, and who is focusing? You seem kinda lost in the conspiratard thinking about muh' people's agency. The real people know that their kids go to school with blacks, and they support it. The real people know their kids get hormonal treatment and chop their genitals off - and they support it. Your little BitChute bubble of Chris-Martenson-watching soccer moms on Facebook is irrelevant. Always has been.
Regarding the refugees - sure, as a tactical stepping stone. Don't the Europeans have their borders wide open anyway? The biggest hurdle seems to be to make those poor Arabs move beyond the sea.
The Orthodox church in the Ukraine is all fine? It just split between Constantinople and Moscow, what's the big deal? The Moscow church betrayed the Donbass uprising anyway.
Hyperinflation seems to be the only short-term existential danger to the neo-Christian empire. I'm curious as to whether your scenario with CBDCs could let them overcome the hurdle. Ties in with the general question as to how controlled or how chaotic the American government in fact is.
But Russia is not even fighting, that's the point. It's all a show for idiots at best. Half a year ago they were bombing Ukrainian infrastructure with little to show for it (I barely ever had power outages). Such actions are arguably best viewed in the light of a demilitarisation of the RF.
The globohomo won in 1945 and didn't win at all. I.e., its victory in Europe is total, whereas its advance in Asia is traditionally arrested.
P.S. What's the deal with recalling "Hegelian dialectic" by people such as yourself? Like, I highly doubt you have the slightest idea of Hegel as taught by Marxist scholars or anything. Hegel was just a random German idealistic philosopher, popular in Russia for a time, still taught in the Ukraine... But listening to you, one would think he's some Jew that invented transvestitism lol.
The way the media works in the west is that they have a constant meta-narrative in place. The meta-narrative goes from a period of months to a year or two and it is what the population talks about, thinks about, acts on. There is only one meta-narrative going at any given time because the public is like a big, dumb animal. Maybe it is different where you are in Ukraine but in the U.S., this meta narrative is incredibly powerful.
The underlying basis of the meta-narrative is all false and lies though, fed to the retard population to keep them interested and entertained. Given COVID had a flu-equivalent mortality rate and the shutdowns were designed to usher in permanent vote-by-mail fraud and print $11 trillion out of thin air, the best way for globohomo to prevent people from looking too closely into their scam was to shift gears to the next one.
I agree with you that globohomo won in 1945 and this is all mop-up for them, but I disagree about Asia - China has a Rothschild owned central bank as far as I can figure it, and Japan and South Korea are clearly globohomo protectorates.
I'm not quite sure re: your question re: the Hegelian dialectic - are you asking what it is? Globohomo will force an issue to be represented in one of only two ways, with their "solution" planned ahead of time. Here's Eustace Mullins on the general concept: "The central bank owners adopted the Hegelian dialectic, the dialectic of materialism, which regards the World as Power, and the World as Reality. It denies all other powers and all other realities. It functions on the principle of thesis, antithesis and a synthesis…Thus the World Order organizes and finances Jewish groups; it then organizes and finances anti-Jewish groups; it organizes Communist groups; it then organizes and finances anti-Communist groups. It is not necessary for the Order to throw these groups against each other; they seek each other out like heat-seeking missiles and try to destroy each other. By controlling the size and resources of each group, the World Order can always predetermine the outcome. In this technique, members of the World Order are often identified with one side or the other. John Foster Dulles arranged financing for Hitler, but he was never a Nazi. David Rockefeller may be cheered in Moscow, but he is not a Communist…a distinguishing trait of a member of the World Order, although it may not be admitted, is that he does not believe in anything but the World Order."
Does Kazakhstan even need a coup?
''(and their consciousness is akin to a black box to me).''
A black cube, the geometry of entropy
Love is blind... but the neighbors ain't
It's all about the weather. If they are waiting on the weather, assume "fake". Five months ago, it was "waiting for the ground to freeze" (5D)- ground froze; nothing happened. Now it's waiting for the ground to dry. Ground will dry. And then? - Possible nuance is who is saying it? I see Prigozhin is waiting for the ground to dry; but I am pretty sure it''s also coming from Nato sources. I bet:: 1.
I still remember the Pro Russian telegram channels repeating over and over again that the Ukrainians would all freeze to death and that General winter came to save the Russians because they began targeting Ukrainians energy infantructure lol
Yeah, it's just a coincidence that April-June 1942, 1943 and 1944 saw no general offensives... It's alright to be skeptical, but one should be careful not to deny the existence of spring rains.
Interesting post. Option 3 sounds horribly likely but Russia cannot afford the land bridge to Crimea being broken. It will leave Crimea once again without a reliable water supply and make supplying Crimea almost entirely dependent on the Kerch bridge, and that's very vulnerable as we have seen. That will leave Crimea basically indefensible. And if any of the traitors in the Kremlin (and here I include Gorbachev - oh I beg your pardon - of course his current reincarnation, Putin) imagine that the west will then offer a compromise peace they are living in la-la land. It will be like the scent of new rich blood to a pack of sharks. Then they will really pile in - go all out on getting the Romanians into Transnistia, the Poles into Belarus & Ukraine, the Kazahks, Georgians, etc etc. And start moving NATO troops into Ukraine to start pushing into Russia. Oh and if the Russian oligarchs imagine the west will allow them to continue, as was the case last time - it won't happen. Russia will be dismembered and all its resources given to western multinationals. If this happens my only hope is that the traitors like Gorbachev (beg pardon, I mean the current reincarnation) are dragged to the gallows and suffer Saddam's fate (he'll have to be dragged, he's such a fucking pathetic miserable little coward).
I don't believe those fuckers in the Kremlin, and the arch-fuck himself actually want a negotiated peace, if they did they would have done what would have promptly delivered that by starting to win the war decisively. I can't believe they are so stupid as not to realize that. The only other possible explanation is out and out treachery whereby they imagine the west will reward their treachery. Well they'll have a nasty surprise coming.
Oh, and all this talk about de-dollarization! Just did a deep dive into what's going on with the dollar. Well guess what - sure quite a few counties are shifting out the dollar - but just take a look at what's been happening to Chinese holdings of US treasuries and US bonds - and you'll find one may go down for a while but then the other goes up. It's the bloody Chinese that are propping up the US dollar - if the Chinese started to seriously dedollarize, the US dollar would be kaput in 5-10 years. So one might wonder why the Chinese are doing this. One suggestion is from PCR, that the Chinese don't want anything to change anytime soon - they would rather see it all play out very slowly maybe over 50 years or so. Oh, and if Russia collapses don't be too surprised if they and proxies (such as the Kazahks) pre-empt the west by grabbing most of Siberia and its resources.
PS and if anyone imagines using tactical nuclear weapons might save Russia - forget it. Putin doesn't have the balls to do it and the west knows this. They understand him only too well - in fact they know that even if they actually launched an all out nuclear attack on Russia, Putin would be too paralyzed by fear and indecision to even order retaliation.
The US and China are both parasites sucking on each other, one cannot survive with out the other. The west has been outsourcing their industry for years to China for cheap labour. Meanwhile the west relies to much in cheap Chinese imports. Xi might be eating icecreams with Putin but secretly he is eyeing on resource rich siberia and is covertly sending massive chinese into the Russian far east and he cannot stop trading with the west as this would lead to a massive economic collapse. China is still a wildcard but i know there are honorary jews sitting in the Chinese communist party because America helped Communist China by withhelding arms shipments for the Chinese nationalists. I enough China is not Russias friend or ally .
The Russian Syrian campaign was for the most part sensible, so why are the Russians making no sense in the Ukraine since 2014?
Whenever you see a contradiction, you are actually seeing corruption. Thus spaketh Rolo
This feels very similar to the Russian winter offensive narrative that never played out. Announcing planned offensives on the news constantly seems to be more about public support and morale boosting than real life. I think the status quo will hold and nothing at all will happen. Maybe some minor back-and-forth exchanges of territory if anything.
The 2 Alex's at the Duran are now saying that Russia never talked about a winter offensive, and they didn't either. As a casual viewer of their many videos I thought they did, but maybe not. But what is clear is that Russia-cheerleaders like Pepe Escobar, Scott Ritter, and Col. McGregor certainly did. If you believed them, as I did, this war should have been over by now. Of course, blaming it on the fact that the Ukraine winter was too mild, the ground didn't freeze, and the fields were impassible due to mud, seems like a pretty good excuse.
In a way, one should not be surprized that there is a serious slow motion coup attempt taking place in Moscow, because Putin never dealt with the deep infiltration of the Russian state & commercial apparatus - I remember watching interviews with Deputat Evgeny Federov back in 2015 when the first Donbass war was underway, & Federov stated then that the Russian state is totally captured by US/CIA/MI6 agentura. I think those interviews are still on You Tube, with English subs. He says it all, he says for example, that Putin doesn't control the government or the parliament/duma, & that they openly defy him. And the problem is deeper still, because Russia is a westernized country, as a consequence of commie urbanization/industrialization, morons like Tim Kirby can say what they what, the guy is a fucking idiot (& as an aside, I really take exception with the way he spoke in his cunt dismissive manner to Rolo during that podcast, the wanker), go see what Federov said for those interested, back in 2015. When the SMO started the Mossad agentura did a runner, but the deep level CIA/MI6 agentura remained, & they are hijacking everything as we speak, this is what Prigozhin is alterting people to. But we will see, if the Ukro offensive is successful, how will Putin survive it? Maybe that is the way he is to be taken down, I don't know. It doesn't look good, either way.
Is this the interview [1][2]?
[1] US to attack Russia in 2015. Evgeny Fedorov - YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x0zRD-Ulv2s
[2] Transcript of the interview: https://niqnaq.wordpress.com/2014/06/01/my-major-interest-has-always-been-psychological-warfare-and-this-is-a-doozy/
I'm still at option 2. Mostly because the other side has their own problems. And luckily in war the other side also has a vote... Its too easy to just highlight the problems of one side and then predict their downfall.
But hey, this is why we pay you the big bucks ;-)
Yes, the West has huge problems. And, Prigozhin is always predicting disaster, even as he presses slowly forward. So I think #2 is more likely than #3. But I won't hold it against Rolo if he turns out to be wrong.
I'm paying Rolo's tribute (actually, it's mere peanuts) for information and for good humor. I don't expect anybody on Substack to have a crystal ball.
Unless there are no sides. And unless this is not a war. The view I share with the Sofa Legion Strategist is that the RF is a crypt-colony given an order to self-destruct. That's the only explanation as to why the Russians are attacking the safest section of the frontline - in the Donbass.
I will respect the Autark's rule here in the Citadel, and avoid criticizing Putin himself. But obviously many of Putin's advisors are in cahoots with the WEF globalists and Zionists and Neocons, and are leading Russia to disaster.
Surely this faction's deepest fear is that the Russian people, who are mostly nationalists, will rise up and depose them. In fact some of those Russian patriots must also have Putin's ear. So there is an internal struggle going on. Will Russia self-destruct and yield to being raped by the West, or will a real defense emerge at some point?
And the same thing is going on in the USA and in Europe. Will the globalist traitors prevail, or will some sort of sanity eventually emerge?
Dude, what did the Russians do in 1991? Newsflash - they cheered the destruction of their own country. How many martyrs did the CPSU have? None.
Because the CPSU was not worth saving? Do you think the Putin regime is equally as worthless as the CPSU?
The CPSU saved Russian statehood twice in a century. Not defending the CPSU would be tantamount to a spread of atheism in Saudi Arabia. An unheard-of treason. Easily imaginable for the White boys, of course.
I'll go with option 2. Ukraine will be forced to at least make a push by war-pigs in USA, cuz they've given them billions and they want something in return. The war-pigs insist that Ukraine lives bleed Russia.
Option 4: The Nothingburger - Sound and fury signifying nothing. "I believe that as soon as the rains stop and the ground dries up, things are going to get interesting." Right. I still haven't finished the corn I popped for the General Winter Russian offensive. It's getting quite stale.
Trench warfare on the western front in WWI was resolved only by a major screw-up. Hindenburg won in the east, and then enthusiastically proceeded to overextend in the west, and so met his demise from logistical inadequacies.
The loser here, if there is one, will be the party who pops their head up to charge, and has it blown off. If these guys really are chess players, they'll keep their heads down, and the war will continue to be a slow grind.
Not good movie material. Unless Zelensky has a contract with Netflix.
Russia seems to have better defensive lines set up than during the Kharkiv debacle. If the USA decided to send their Ukrainian troops to attack, then that is a sign that USA has the upper hand in their Ukraine province. If there are holes in the lines due to lack of men and material, the USA would know about it. I admit I am perplexed due to Russia's odd behavior. So my guess is a repeat of Kharkiv, but I am not sure.
I favour a modification of the second option. I think there will be a Ukrainian attack, but doubt it will achieve much. Then I expect the Russians will not advance far in turn.
It looks as if the Ukrainian attack is mainly a media effort. Military Summary channel reports that today the Russians whacked two of the new Ukrainian brigades in Nicolaev. Any actual attack in Zaporozhye can only be weak and will lack artillery and air support, and even anti-aircraft defence, as Dima reported that three of their remaining S-300 systems were destroyed in Kherson today along with the Gepard that was supposed to defend them. Larry Johnson also doubts that the Ukrainians can launch much of an offensive. https://sonar21.com/ukraines-promised-counter-offensive-destined-for-abject-failure/
A thing to note is that whatever problems of corruption and incompetence the Russian military may suffer from are likely to be even greater on the Ukrainian side.
I don't know who amongst the Russian leadership class could expect to benefit from a major Russian defeat. Putin would have to protect himself by blaming Shoigu and Gerasimov - who must feel strongly motivated to cover up their previous defalcations by doing all they now can to prop up their army in the south. (What has happened to the Russian forces which successfully fought off the Ukrainian attacks on Kherson and then skillfully retreated across the river? Presumably they are still at hand. ) After all the trouble to capture and then rebuild Mariupol, I think Putin will insist on a major effort to retain it. He probably made that clear when he talked to his generals in the south.
I suspect that Putin does not want spectacular victories and major advances. That would generate too much excitement and keep those who run the USA determined to do still more to continue the fighting there. It seems to me he would prefer to let the Americans blame the Ukrainians for failure and turn most of their attention to threatening a naval conflict with China. Continued low level conflict in Ukraine may be Russia's best option (especially if they have problems of corruption and organization which would become more evident at more severe levels of combat). That gives them the hope of slowly exhausting and demoralising the Ukrainian forces, without having to wreck the larger Ukrainian cities in order to defeat them. An implicit agreement between America and Russia to avoid 'big arrow' moves there once the ballyhoed Ukrainian offensive has been disposed of , would be in the interests of both powers.
It may well be that in order to restrain his most aggressive dogs of war, supplies and support to the Wagner forces have been withheld. That may not be the result of treason or corruption or personal differences. It may be a way of preventing them from being too successful and advancing too far, thereby attracting too much media attention and preventing the Americans from just turning their backs on Ukraine. The King can't allow a mercenary company to spoil his geopolitical plans.
Progozhin and Strelkov look like the only people who stand to gain from creating a ruckus. They focus too narrowly on the military. Their complaints probably have merit, but they should put them in a wider context and accept that honesty and a patriotic elite are not available options now. 'Near enough for government work' is not a good standard, but will probably suffice to see the Russians eventually through to a slow and messy kind of victory in Ukraine, whilst gaining prestige, influence and profit in the wider world - which will be far more advantageous to Russia than wrecking more towns in Ukraine and occupying more farmland.
What an absolutely delightful account, daddy Rolo! The paragraphs on the state of the Russian internal propaganda messaging are exquisite in particular! Haven't checked Soloviev's missives in quite a while myself though as my ears get tired of being raped by constant manly screaming. (That's one unfortunate downside to the Russians - their political shows are monkey-tier, no culture of debate, just hysterical screeching, with poor Nikolai Zlobin getting constantly bullied.)
On a tangential note, as I was trying to recall Zlobin's name, I have found this Russian LiveJournal which is as braindead as the Lira/Ritter/Macgregor clique - 7freiheit. Incidentally, it is led by a woman. Not sure whether it's of any note, but it did culturally enrich me - for example, she's so clueless to the Internet etiquette, she outright doxxed the IP of one of her commenters. This is the people we're dealing with - it's easy to forget they even exist, and yet there is no limit to normies' stupidity and vileness.
But back to our issue. Rain is a bitch. A huge bitch. It was rain that saved Moscow in October 1941 (of course, as Russian folk wisdom proclaims, "a bad dancer is hindered by his balls", so it takes an incredibly terrible or desperate commander to conduct offensives in mud, February-2022-style). It feels good to see the immensity of rain's role recognised for once. And the weather forecasts for Guliaipole in Zaporozhye predict the RNG procs of rain at 50% as late as 2023-05-06.
On the other hand, there certainly is a numerological argument about 2023 being a leap year of sorts. Just think, 2016 was Trump (& Harambe), 2020 was Corvid, 2022 the pseudo-war. 2024 is going to be a confluence of: 1) US election; 2) Russian election; 3) the anniversary of the last 2 Maidans in the Ukraine.
But as to the strategic choices available to the Kievan principality, Strelkov expects a feint offensive towards Russian proper ("the old RF"), mainly Belgorod or Bryansk. This way, Russian forces might get distracted in an irrelevant segment of the front. An eye-catching idea, yet I somewhat doubt whether it could be in the style of the Americans preferring a much slower boil for their frogs. Although an offensive without an outright capture of Belgorod could be conducted, I concede.
If you're going to start delving into sacred dates or whatever, you really need to understand astrotheology. I am convinced by a lot of the main arguments of astrology in general, but I don't know how to calculate specific years and dates that will be significant. But the strange timings of all the largest stock market collapses makes me thing that if someone had the time and inclination, they ought to invest in figuring out this stuff.
There is another argument voiced by Pelevin in his 2013 novel Batman Apollo. It is utterly schizophrenic, yet it could be of note here. The élites are asking an artificial intelligence or a magical bat-man as to how to get a desired result, and they receive an answer which might seem absurd. Yet they have tried it, and it works. So now, they are doing it large-scale - the riot of pussies in Russia, an orange revolution in the Ukraine, transvestites in Harry Potter, a co[r]vid plague, a pseudo-war, an advent of AI... And yes, the Star Wars movies that have destroyed the multi-billion franchise are part of the plan, too.
> "After the meeting, Rama learns the nature of these decisions. It turns out that vampires arrange everything in such a way that the Chaldeans perceive the ideas submitted to them as their own. But the vampires will learn about the need for the next step from the calendar with predictions. According to Enlil, the top of the vampire community knows how to dive into limbo and see the future. They write down everything they see in a special calendar, after which they send out predictions to different countries. According to this calendar, in 2012 in Russia there should be a "hairy riot", which the vampires are trying to arrange."
A comment by @MrSolPow under the recent Goy Gaya video has reminded me of the above.
> "Goy Gaia! I have one theory lined up that explains all the shit that is happening in the world: AI, like in the Wild West World, was asked to give out what needs to be done in order to achieve such and such goals by such and such a year. He gave out a strategy in which many steps on the way to the goal, at first glance, very absurd and even harmful to the beneficiary, by the type of sawing off his leg, sewing his hand, then back and so on 10 times, then eat shit, clean the stomach and drink soda. But in fact, this kind of thing: allocate money for the project (outwardly, it can be frankly delusional), set the conditions and requirements (the same delusional) and wait. Stars, politicians and other rabble for money will begin to perform, and the rest will repeat after them and profit. The dudes tested this technology on some local region for a short period of time - the experiment turned out to be successful."
A great void dragon soars through the sky
'It turns out that vampires arrange everything in such a way that the Chaldeans'
Vampires are preferable to the soul cannibals that rule over us, both above and below.
The most likely scenarios is a succesfull Ukrainian Offensive Balaklaia/Izyum style or that the situation remains as it is. The front line has been static for many months now, both sides have been digging in and fortifing their positions laying thousands of landmines and traps in the large open fields.The Russians lost their chance and momentum for big battles of movement on the large Ukrainian steppes. Now the Ukrainians are ready everywhere and mined/fortified every border crossing or road from Belarus to Kharkov. Ukrainians have showed themselves masters of defense, the scale the Russians are fighting this war is just too small. Study the Wehrmachts advance in Ukraine in 1941 it was basicly 1 big tank battle in Dubno before they could just outflank and drive across the open fields straight to the Dnepr. The Soviet Donbas and Dnepr strategic counter offensive in Ukraine in 1943 they used around 2.6 million Soviet soldiers just to get to the Donbass back and to get to the Dnepr river they lost around 1 million men killed/wounded and missing just to give you a perspective. I think the Ukraine/Nato/US are perfectly fine the way the war is going, they are killing Russians and draining the Russian army for minor territorial gains. I mean what strategic value does Bakhmut even have at this point? Its just a Stalingrad type rubble on a crossroad intersection, after that there will be even harder nuts to crack like Slavjiansk, Kramatorsk and Kostjantynivka which are even bigger cities and you cannot just outflank or by pass these festungs either. It only means more grinding and storming by the Russians across mined open fields with Ukrainian artillery and drones zero'd in on the roads which means more losses. Ukaine still has the stategic initiative, they can attack wherever they want, Bakhmut is just a Stalingrad for them that binds the Russians while they can probe and attack elsewhere. Ukraine has been forcing crossings around the Dnepr in Kherson the last few days and even captured the islands at the mouth of the river leading into the black sea. Also the terrorist and partisan attacks inside Russia are still happening and the FSB seems unable to counter this. Yes things are really looking bleak for Russia, i certainly dont want to be a Russian infantrymen in a trench while western spy sattelites are basicly scanning evey inch of Ukraine 24/7 giving target lists to the Ukrainian army who then use drones with thermal vision to drop a bomb in your trench at night or strike at you with HIMARs or excalibur ammunition. In the end this will be come a drone war with remote controlled monster truck toys being packed with grenades charging enemy trenches. In which also Russia is at a distinct disadvantage as they are looking to China and Iran for their chips and drones. Which isnt really the best of the best quality unfortunatly for Russia.
I think you need to take whatever Prigozhin says with a full beaker of salt. He is a master. I mean he speaks a lot of truth plus a complex set of political messages. The fog of this war has been in the information dimension.
I don't want to weasel but I am going for Option 2. Ukraine needs to prove something and/or is pushed by the west. The question is what does the conclusion of Option 2 look like.
If they even make a small dent in a territory push and are able to retain it, it will be sold as a victory and the grind continues, which is the west's strategy.
I do not believe in this offensive at all. I suspect this so called special military operation is intended to trash the Donbass and drive out the local population. Then, when the dust settles, the oligarchs can gobble up the bread basket of the world for pennies on the dollar.
Some even say Ukraine is going to be the New Isreal 2.0 and that the local population has to be killed off in a unwinable exhausting war for both sides. It was also the ancient jew homeland of Khazaria in ages past.