Who knows if this means anything or whether it's merely bullshit, but this morning on MSNBC, Joe Scarborough, went out of his way to mention, Li Hui, China's former Ambassador to Russia who speaks fluent Russian and happens to be on very good terms with Putin. Anyway, Li Hui might be meeting with Zelensky. "If" it's true then it means everyone is interested in negotiating. So if an agreement is reached, it would certainly elevate China internationally as well as help Creepy Joe's 2024 presidential campaign.
Personally I think it's impossible to know what's going on behind the scenes as well as the exact state of the war, there's too much false propaganda, however everyone I've seen who links to MacGregor, Ritter, Lira, etc has been a complete moron, with utterly failed predictions and a total unwillingness to own up to prior predictions that turned out to be wrong, so my inclination is to run to the opposite of whatever these idiots are shilling. So I'll go with #3, but again with the caveat that I really lack the knowledge to make a fully educated decision.
That being said, I think there is some behind the scenes deal between the globohomo west and globohomo Russian leaders determining the outcome and timing of the war, I just question whether or not the globohomo west will abrogate the deal when they see globohomo Russian weakness and go in for the kill out of greed.
It's all about the weather. If they are waiting on the weather, assume "fake". Five months ago, it was "waiting for the ground to freeze" (5D)- ground froze; nothing happened. Now it's waiting for the ground to dry. Ground will dry. And then? - Possible nuance is who is saying it? I see Prigozhin is waiting for the ground to dry; but I am pretty sure it''s also coming from Nato sources. I bet:: 1.
Interesting post. Option 3 sounds horribly likely but Russia cannot afford the land bridge to Crimea being broken. It will leave Crimea once again without a reliable water supply and make supplying Crimea almost entirely dependent on the Kerch bridge, and that's very vulnerable as we have seen. That will leave Crimea basically indefensible. And if any of the traitors in the Kremlin (and here I include Gorbachev - oh I beg your pardon - of course his current reincarnation, Putin) imagine that the west will then offer a compromise peace they are living in la-la land. It will be like the scent of new rich blood to a pack of sharks. Then they will really pile in - go all out on getting the Romanians into Transnistia, the Poles into Belarus & Ukraine, the Kazahks, Georgians, etc etc. And start moving NATO troops into Ukraine to start pushing into Russia. Oh and if the Russian oligarchs imagine the west will allow them to continue, as was the case last time - it won't happen. Russia will be dismembered and all its resources given to western multinationals. If this happens my only hope is that the traitors like Gorbachev (beg pardon, I mean the current reincarnation) are dragged to the gallows and suffer Saddam's fate (he'll have to be dragged, he's such a fucking pathetic miserable little coward).
I don't believe those fuckers in the Kremlin, and the arch-fuck himself actually want a negotiated peace, if they did they would have done what would have promptly delivered that by starting to win the war decisively. I can't believe they are so stupid as not to realize that. The only other possible explanation is out and out treachery whereby they imagine the west will reward their treachery. Well they'll have a nasty surprise coming.
Oh, and all this talk about de-dollarization! Just did a deep dive into what's going on with the dollar. Well guess what - sure quite a few counties are shifting out the dollar - but just take a look at what's been happening to Chinese holdings of US treasuries and US bonds - and you'll find one may go down for a while but then the other goes up. It's the bloody Chinese that are propping up the US dollar - if the Chinese started to seriously dedollarize, the US dollar would be kaput in 5-10 years. So one might wonder why the Chinese are doing this. One suggestion is from PCR, that the Chinese don't want anything to change anytime soon - they would rather see it all play out very slowly maybe over 50 years or so. Oh, and if Russia collapses don't be too surprised if they and proxies (such as the Kazahks) pre-empt the west by grabbing most of Siberia and its resources.
PS and if anyone imagines using tactical nuclear weapons might save Russia - forget it. Putin doesn't have the balls to do it and the west knows this. They understand him only too well - in fact they know that even if they actually launched an all out nuclear attack on Russia, Putin would be too paralyzed by fear and indecision to even order retaliation.
This feels very similar to the Russian winter offensive narrative that never played out. Announcing planned offensives on the news constantly seems to be more about public support and morale boosting than real life. I think the status quo will hold and nothing at all will happen. Maybe some minor back-and-forth exchanges of territory if anything.
In a way, one should not be surprized that there is a serious slow motion coup attempt taking place in Moscow, because Putin never dealt with the deep infiltration of the Russian state & commercial apparatus - I remember watching interviews with Deputat Evgeny Federov back in 2015 when the first Donbass war was underway, & Federov stated then that the Russian state is totally captured by US/CIA/MI6 agentura. I think those interviews are still on You Tube, with English subs. He says it all, he says for example, that Putin doesn't control the government or the parliament/duma, & that they openly defy him. And the problem is deeper still, because Russia is a westernized country, as a consequence of commie urbanization/industrialization, morons like Tim Kirby can say what they what, the guy is a fucking idiot (& as an aside, I really take exception with the way he spoke in his cunt dismissive manner to Rolo during that podcast, the wanker), go see what Federov said for those interested, back in 2015. When the SMO started the Mossad agentura did a runner, but the deep level CIA/MI6 agentura remained, & they are hijacking everything as we speak, this is what Prigozhin is alterting people to. But we will see, if the Ukro offensive is successful, how will Putin survive it? Maybe that is the way he is to be taken down, I don't know. It doesn't look good, either way.
I'm still at option 2. Mostly because the other side has their own problems. And luckily in war the other side also has a vote... Its too easy to just highlight the problems of one side and then predict their downfall.
I'll go with option 2. Ukraine will be forced to at least make a push by war-pigs in USA, cuz they've given them billions and they want something in return. The war-pigs insist that Ukraine lives bleed Russia.
Option 4: The Nothingburger - Sound and fury signifying nothing. "I believe that as soon as the rains stop and the ground dries up, things are going to get interesting." Right. I still haven't finished the corn I popped for the General Winter Russian offensive. It's getting quite stale.
Trench warfare on the western front in WWI was resolved only by a major screw-up. Hindenburg won in the east, and then enthusiastically proceeded to overextend in the west, and so met his demise from logistical inadequacies.
The loser here, if there is one, will be the party who pops their head up to charge, and has it blown off. If these guys really are chess players, they'll keep their heads down, and the war will continue to be a slow grind.
Not good movie material. Unless Zelensky has a contract with Netflix.
Russia seems to have better defensive lines set up than during the Kharkiv debacle. If the USA decided to send their Ukrainian troops to attack, then that is a sign that USA has the upper hand in their Ukraine province. If there are holes in the lines due to lack of men and material, the USA would know about it. I admit I am perplexed due to Russia's odd behavior. So my guess is a repeat of Kharkiv, but I am not sure.
I favour a modification of the second option. I think there will be a Ukrainian attack, but doubt it will achieve much. Then I expect the Russians will not advance far in turn.
It looks as if the Ukrainian attack is mainly a media effort. Military Summary channel reports that today the Russians whacked two of the new Ukrainian brigades in Nicolaev. Any actual attack in Zaporozhye can only be weak and will lack artillery and air support, and even anti-aircraft defence, as Dima reported that three of their remaining S-300 systems were destroyed in Kherson today along with the Gepard that was supposed to defend them. Larry Johnson also doubts that the Ukrainians can launch much of an offensive. https://sonar21.com/ukraines-promised-counter-offensive-destined-for-abject-failure/
A thing to note is that whatever problems of corruption and incompetence the Russian military may suffer from are likely to be even greater on the Ukrainian side.
I don't know who amongst the Russian leadership class could expect to benefit from a major Russian defeat. Putin would have to protect himself by blaming Shoigu and Gerasimov - who must feel strongly motivated to cover up their previous defalcations by doing all they now can to prop up their army in the south. (What has happened to the Russian forces which successfully fought off the Ukrainian attacks on Kherson and then skillfully retreated across the river? Presumably they are still at hand. ) After all the trouble to capture and then rebuild Mariupol, I think Putin will insist on a major effort to retain it. He probably made that clear when he talked to his generals in the south.
I suspect that Putin does not want spectacular victories and major advances. That would generate too much excitement and keep those who run the USA determined to do still more to continue the fighting there. It seems to me he would prefer to let the Americans blame the Ukrainians for failure and turn most of their attention to threatening a naval conflict with China. Continued low level conflict in Ukraine may be Russia's best option (especially if they have problems of corruption and organization which would become more evident at more severe levels of combat). That gives them the hope of slowly exhausting and demoralising the Ukrainian forces, without having to wreck the larger Ukrainian cities in order to defeat them. An implicit agreement between America and Russia to avoid 'big arrow' moves there once the ballyhoed Ukrainian offensive has been disposed of , would be in the interests of both powers.
It may well be that in order to restrain his most aggressive dogs of war, supplies and support to the Wagner forces have been withheld. That may not be the result of treason or corruption or personal differences. It may be a way of preventing them from being too successful and advancing too far, thereby attracting too much media attention and preventing the Americans from just turning their backs on Ukraine. The King can't allow a mercenary company to spoil his geopolitical plans.
Progozhin and Strelkov look like the only people who stand to gain from creating a ruckus. They focus too narrowly on the military. Their complaints probably have merit, but they should put them in a wider context and accept that honesty and a patriotic elite are not available options now. 'Near enough for government work' is not a good standard, but will probably suffice to see the Russians eventually through to a slow and messy kind of victory in Ukraine, whilst gaining prestige, influence and profit in the wider world - which will be far more advantageous to Russia than wrecking more towns in Ukraine and occupying more farmland.
What an absolutely delightful account, daddy Rolo! The paragraphs on the state of the Russian internal propaganda messaging are exquisite in particular! Haven't checked Soloviev's missives in quite a while myself though as my ears get tired of being raped by constant manly screaming. (That's one unfortunate downside to the Russians - their political shows are monkey-tier, no culture of debate, just hysterical screeching, with poor Nikolai Zlobin getting constantly bullied.)
On a tangential note, as I was trying to recall Zlobin's name, I have found this Russian LiveJournal which is as braindead as the Lira/Ritter/Macgregor clique - 7freiheit. Incidentally, it is led by a woman. Not sure whether it's of any note, but it did culturally enrich me - for example, she's so clueless to the Internet etiquette, she outright doxxed the IP of one of her commenters. This is the people we're dealing with - it's easy to forget they even exist, and yet there is no limit to normies' stupidity and vileness.
But back to our issue. Rain is a bitch. A huge bitch. It was rain that saved Moscow in October 1941 (of course, as Russian folk wisdom proclaims, "a bad dancer is hindered by his balls", so it takes an incredibly terrible or desperate commander to conduct offensives in mud, February-2022-style). It feels good to see the immensity of rain's role recognised for once. And the weather forecasts for Guliaipole in Zaporozhye predict the RNG procs of rain at 50% as late as 2023-05-06.
On the other hand, there certainly is a numerological argument about 2023 being a leap year of sorts. Just think, 2016 was Trump (& Harambe), 2020 was Corvid, 2022 the pseudo-war. 2024 is going to be a confluence of: 1) US election; 2) Russian election; 3) the anniversary of the last 2 Maidans in the Ukraine.
But as to the strategic choices available to the Kievan principality, Strelkov expects a feint offensive towards Russian proper ("the old RF"), mainly Belgorod or Bryansk. This way, Russian forces might get distracted in an irrelevant segment of the front. An eye-catching idea, yet I somewhat doubt whether it could be in the style of the Americans preferring a much slower boil for their frogs. Although an offensive without an outright capture of Belgorod could be conducted, I concede.
The most likely scenarios is a succesfull Ukrainian Offensive Balaklaia/Izyum style or that the situation remains as it is. The front line has been static for many months now, both sides have been digging in and fortifing their positions laying thousands of landmines and traps in the large open fields.The Russians lost their chance and momentum for big battles of movement on the large Ukrainian steppes. Now the Ukrainians are ready everywhere and mined/fortified every border crossing or road from Belarus to Kharkov. Ukrainians have showed themselves masters of defense, the scale the Russians are fighting this war is just too small. Study the Wehrmachts advance in Ukraine in 1941 it was basicly 1 big tank battle in Dubno before they could just outflank and drive across the open fields straight to the Dnepr. The Soviet Donbas and Dnepr strategic counter offensive in Ukraine in 1943 they used around 2.6 million Soviet soldiers just to get to the Donbass back and to get to the Dnepr river they lost around 1 million men killed/wounded and missing just to give you a perspective. I think the Ukraine/Nato/US are perfectly fine the way the war is going, they are killing Russians and draining the Russian army for minor territorial gains. I mean what strategic value does Bakhmut even have at this point? Its just a Stalingrad type rubble on a crossroad intersection, after that there will be even harder nuts to crack like Slavjiansk, Kramatorsk and Kostjantynivka which are even bigger cities and you cannot just outflank or by pass these festungs either. It only means more grinding and storming by the Russians across mined open fields with Ukrainian artillery and drones zero'd in on the roads which means more losses. Ukaine still has the stategic initiative, they can attack wherever they want, Bakhmut is just a Stalingrad for them that binds the Russians while they can probe and attack elsewhere. Ukraine has been forcing crossings around the Dnepr in Kherson the last few days and even captured the islands at the mouth of the river leading into the black sea. Also the terrorist and partisan attacks inside Russia are still happening and the FSB seems unable to counter this. Yes things are really looking bleak for Russia, i certainly dont want to be a Russian infantrymen in a trench while western spy sattelites are basicly scanning evey inch of Ukraine 24/7 giving target lists to the Ukrainian army who then use drones with thermal vision to drop a bomb in your trench at night or strike at you with HIMARs or excalibur ammunition. In the end this will be come a drone war with remote controlled monster truck toys being packed with grenades charging enemy trenches. In which also Russia is at a distinct disadvantage as they are looking to China and Iran for their chips and drones. Which isnt really the best of the best quality unfortunatly for Russia.
I think you need to take whatever Prigozhin says with a full beaker of salt. He is a master. I mean he speaks a lot of truth plus a complex set of political messages. The fog of this war has been in the information dimension.
I don't want to weasel but I am going for Option 2. Ukraine needs to prove something and/or is pushed by the west. The question is what does the conclusion of Option 2 look like.
If they even make a small dent in a territory push and are able to retain it, it will be sold as a victory and the grind continues, which is the west's strategy.
I do not believe in this offensive at all. I suspect this so called special military operation is intended to trash the Donbass and drive out the local population. Then, when the dust settles, the oligarchs can gobble up the bread basket of the world for pennies on the dollar.
Who knows if this means anything or whether it's merely bullshit, but this morning on MSNBC, Joe Scarborough, went out of his way to mention, Li Hui, China's former Ambassador to Russia who speaks fluent Russian and happens to be on very good terms with Putin. Anyway, Li Hui might be meeting with Zelensky. "If" it's true then it means everyone is interested in negotiating. So if an agreement is reached, it would certainly elevate China internationally as well as help Creepy Joe's 2024 presidential campaign.
Personally I think it's impossible to know what's going on behind the scenes as well as the exact state of the war, there's too much false propaganda, however everyone I've seen who links to MacGregor, Ritter, Lira, etc has been a complete moron, with utterly failed predictions and a total unwillingness to own up to prior predictions that turned out to be wrong, so my inclination is to run to the opposite of whatever these idiots are shilling. So I'll go with #3, but again with the caveat that I really lack the knowledge to make a fully educated decision.
That being said, I think there is some behind the scenes deal between the globohomo west and globohomo Russian leaders determining the outcome and timing of the war, I just question whether or not the globohomo west will abrogate the deal when they see globohomo Russian weakness and go in for the kill out of greed.
It's all about the weather. If they are waiting on the weather, assume "fake". Five months ago, it was "waiting for the ground to freeze" (5D)- ground froze; nothing happened. Now it's waiting for the ground to dry. Ground will dry. And then? - Possible nuance is who is saying it? I see Prigozhin is waiting for the ground to dry; but I am pretty sure it''s also coming from Nato sources. I bet:: 1.
Interesting post. Option 3 sounds horribly likely but Russia cannot afford the land bridge to Crimea being broken. It will leave Crimea once again without a reliable water supply and make supplying Crimea almost entirely dependent on the Kerch bridge, and that's very vulnerable as we have seen. That will leave Crimea basically indefensible. And if any of the traitors in the Kremlin (and here I include Gorbachev - oh I beg your pardon - of course his current reincarnation, Putin) imagine that the west will then offer a compromise peace they are living in la-la land. It will be like the scent of new rich blood to a pack of sharks. Then they will really pile in - go all out on getting the Romanians into Transnistia, the Poles into Belarus & Ukraine, the Kazahks, Georgians, etc etc. And start moving NATO troops into Ukraine to start pushing into Russia. Oh and if the Russian oligarchs imagine the west will allow them to continue, as was the case last time - it won't happen. Russia will be dismembered and all its resources given to western multinationals. If this happens my only hope is that the traitors like Gorbachev (beg pardon, I mean the current reincarnation) are dragged to the gallows and suffer Saddam's fate (he'll have to be dragged, he's such a fucking pathetic miserable little coward).
I don't believe those fuckers in the Kremlin, and the arch-fuck himself actually want a negotiated peace, if they did they would have done what would have promptly delivered that by starting to win the war decisively. I can't believe they are so stupid as not to realize that. The only other possible explanation is out and out treachery whereby they imagine the west will reward their treachery. Well they'll have a nasty surprise coming.
Oh, and all this talk about de-dollarization! Just did a deep dive into what's going on with the dollar. Well guess what - sure quite a few counties are shifting out the dollar - but just take a look at what's been happening to Chinese holdings of US treasuries and US bonds - and you'll find one may go down for a while but then the other goes up. It's the bloody Chinese that are propping up the US dollar - if the Chinese started to seriously dedollarize, the US dollar would be kaput in 5-10 years. So one might wonder why the Chinese are doing this. One suggestion is from PCR, that the Chinese don't want anything to change anytime soon - they would rather see it all play out very slowly maybe over 50 years or so. Oh, and if Russia collapses don't be too surprised if they and proxies (such as the Kazahks) pre-empt the west by grabbing most of Siberia and its resources.
PS and if anyone imagines using tactical nuclear weapons might save Russia - forget it. Putin doesn't have the balls to do it and the west knows this. They understand him only too well - in fact they know that even if they actually launched an all out nuclear attack on Russia, Putin would be too paralyzed by fear and indecision to even order retaliation.
The Russian Syrian campaign was for the most part sensible, so why are the Russians making no sense in the Ukraine since 2014?
This feels very similar to the Russian winter offensive narrative that never played out. Announcing planned offensives on the news constantly seems to be more about public support and morale boosting than real life. I think the status quo will hold and nothing at all will happen. Maybe some minor back-and-forth exchanges of territory if anything.
In a way, one should not be surprized that there is a serious slow motion coup attempt taking place in Moscow, because Putin never dealt with the deep infiltration of the Russian state & commercial apparatus - I remember watching interviews with Deputat Evgeny Federov back in 2015 when the first Donbass war was underway, & Federov stated then that the Russian state is totally captured by US/CIA/MI6 agentura. I think those interviews are still on You Tube, with English subs. He says it all, he says for example, that Putin doesn't control the government or the parliament/duma, & that they openly defy him. And the problem is deeper still, because Russia is a westernized country, as a consequence of commie urbanization/industrialization, morons like Tim Kirby can say what they what, the guy is a fucking idiot (& as an aside, I really take exception with the way he spoke in his cunt dismissive manner to Rolo during that podcast, the wanker), go see what Federov said for those interested, back in 2015. When the SMO started the Mossad agentura did a runner, but the deep level CIA/MI6 agentura remained, & they are hijacking everything as we speak, this is what Prigozhin is alterting people to. But we will see, if the Ukro offensive is successful, how will Putin survive it? Maybe that is the way he is to be taken down, I don't know. It doesn't look good, either way.
I'm still at option 2. Mostly because the other side has their own problems. And luckily in war the other side also has a vote... Its too easy to just highlight the problems of one side and then predict their downfall.
But hey, this is why we pay you the big bucks ;-)
I'll go with option 2. Ukraine will be forced to at least make a push by war-pigs in USA, cuz they've given them billions and they want something in return. The war-pigs insist that Ukraine lives bleed Russia.
Option 4: The Nothingburger - Sound and fury signifying nothing. "I believe that as soon as the rains stop and the ground dries up, things are going to get interesting." Right. I still haven't finished the corn I popped for the General Winter Russian offensive. It's getting quite stale.
Trench warfare on the western front in WWI was resolved only by a major screw-up. Hindenburg won in the east, and then enthusiastically proceeded to overextend in the west, and so met his demise from logistical inadequacies.
The loser here, if there is one, will be the party who pops their head up to charge, and has it blown off. If these guys really are chess players, they'll keep their heads down, and the war will continue to be a slow grind.
Not good movie material. Unless Zelensky has a contract with Netflix.
Russia seems to have better defensive lines set up than during the Kharkiv debacle. If the USA decided to send their Ukrainian troops to attack, then that is a sign that USA has the upper hand in their Ukraine province. If there are holes in the lines due to lack of men and material, the USA would know about it. I admit I am perplexed due to Russia's odd behavior. So my guess is a repeat of Kharkiv, but I am not sure.
I favour a modification of the second option. I think there will be a Ukrainian attack, but doubt it will achieve much. Then I expect the Russians will not advance far in turn.
It looks as if the Ukrainian attack is mainly a media effort. Military Summary channel reports that today the Russians whacked two of the new Ukrainian brigades in Nicolaev. Any actual attack in Zaporozhye can only be weak and will lack artillery and air support, and even anti-aircraft defence, as Dima reported that three of their remaining S-300 systems were destroyed in Kherson today along with the Gepard that was supposed to defend them. Larry Johnson also doubts that the Ukrainians can launch much of an offensive. https://sonar21.com/ukraines-promised-counter-offensive-destined-for-abject-failure/
A thing to note is that whatever problems of corruption and incompetence the Russian military may suffer from are likely to be even greater on the Ukrainian side.
I don't know who amongst the Russian leadership class could expect to benefit from a major Russian defeat. Putin would have to protect himself by blaming Shoigu and Gerasimov - who must feel strongly motivated to cover up their previous defalcations by doing all they now can to prop up their army in the south. (What has happened to the Russian forces which successfully fought off the Ukrainian attacks on Kherson and then skillfully retreated across the river? Presumably they are still at hand. ) After all the trouble to capture and then rebuild Mariupol, I think Putin will insist on a major effort to retain it. He probably made that clear when he talked to his generals in the south.
I suspect that Putin does not want spectacular victories and major advances. That would generate too much excitement and keep those who run the USA determined to do still more to continue the fighting there. It seems to me he would prefer to let the Americans blame the Ukrainians for failure and turn most of their attention to threatening a naval conflict with China. Continued low level conflict in Ukraine may be Russia's best option (especially if they have problems of corruption and organization which would become more evident at more severe levels of combat). That gives them the hope of slowly exhausting and demoralising the Ukrainian forces, without having to wreck the larger Ukrainian cities in order to defeat them. An implicit agreement between America and Russia to avoid 'big arrow' moves there once the ballyhoed Ukrainian offensive has been disposed of , would be in the interests of both powers.
It may well be that in order to restrain his most aggressive dogs of war, supplies and support to the Wagner forces have been withheld. That may not be the result of treason or corruption or personal differences. It may be a way of preventing them from being too successful and advancing too far, thereby attracting too much media attention and preventing the Americans from just turning their backs on Ukraine. The King can't allow a mercenary company to spoil his geopolitical plans.
Progozhin and Strelkov look like the only people who stand to gain from creating a ruckus. They focus too narrowly on the military. Their complaints probably have merit, but they should put them in a wider context and accept that honesty and a patriotic elite are not available options now. 'Near enough for government work' is not a good standard, but will probably suffice to see the Russians eventually through to a slow and messy kind of victory in Ukraine, whilst gaining prestige, influence and profit in the wider world - which will be far more advantageous to Russia than wrecking more towns in Ukraine and occupying more farmland.
What an absolutely delightful account, daddy Rolo! The paragraphs on the state of the Russian internal propaganda messaging are exquisite in particular! Haven't checked Soloviev's missives in quite a while myself though as my ears get tired of being raped by constant manly screaming. (That's one unfortunate downside to the Russians - their political shows are monkey-tier, no culture of debate, just hysterical screeching, with poor Nikolai Zlobin getting constantly bullied.)
On a tangential note, as I was trying to recall Zlobin's name, I have found this Russian LiveJournal which is as braindead as the Lira/Ritter/Macgregor clique - 7freiheit. Incidentally, it is led by a woman. Not sure whether it's of any note, but it did culturally enrich me - for example, she's so clueless to the Internet etiquette, she outright doxxed the IP of one of her commenters. This is the people we're dealing with - it's easy to forget they even exist, and yet there is no limit to normies' stupidity and vileness.
But back to our issue. Rain is a bitch. A huge bitch. It was rain that saved Moscow in October 1941 (of course, as Russian folk wisdom proclaims, "a bad dancer is hindered by his balls", so it takes an incredibly terrible or desperate commander to conduct offensives in mud, February-2022-style). It feels good to see the immensity of rain's role recognised for once. And the weather forecasts for Guliaipole in Zaporozhye predict the RNG procs of rain at 50% as late as 2023-05-06.
On the other hand, there certainly is a numerological argument about 2023 being a leap year of sorts. Just think, 2016 was Trump (& Harambe), 2020 was Corvid, 2022 the pseudo-war. 2024 is going to be a confluence of: 1) US election; 2) Russian election; 3) the anniversary of the last 2 Maidans in the Ukraine.
But as to the strategic choices available to the Kievan principality, Strelkov expects a feint offensive towards Russian proper ("the old RF"), mainly Belgorod or Bryansk. This way, Russian forces might get distracted in an irrelevant segment of the front. An eye-catching idea, yet I somewhat doubt whether it could be in the style of the Americans preferring a much slower boil for their frogs. Although an offensive without an outright capture of Belgorod could be conducted, I concede.
The most likely scenarios is a succesfull Ukrainian Offensive Balaklaia/Izyum style or that the situation remains as it is. The front line has been static for many months now, both sides have been digging in and fortifing their positions laying thousands of landmines and traps in the large open fields.The Russians lost their chance and momentum for big battles of movement on the large Ukrainian steppes. Now the Ukrainians are ready everywhere and mined/fortified every border crossing or road from Belarus to Kharkov. Ukrainians have showed themselves masters of defense, the scale the Russians are fighting this war is just too small. Study the Wehrmachts advance in Ukraine in 1941 it was basicly 1 big tank battle in Dubno before they could just outflank and drive across the open fields straight to the Dnepr. The Soviet Donbas and Dnepr strategic counter offensive in Ukraine in 1943 they used around 2.6 million Soviet soldiers just to get to the Donbass back and to get to the Dnepr river they lost around 1 million men killed/wounded and missing just to give you a perspective. I think the Ukraine/Nato/US are perfectly fine the way the war is going, they are killing Russians and draining the Russian army for minor territorial gains. I mean what strategic value does Bakhmut even have at this point? Its just a Stalingrad type rubble on a crossroad intersection, after that there will be even harder nuts to crack like Slavjiansk, Kramatorsk and Kostjantynivka which are even bigger cities and you cannot just outflank or by pass these festungs either. It only means more grinding and storming by the Russians across mined open fields with Ukrainian artillery and drones zero'd in on the roads which means more losses. Ukaine still has the stategic initiative, they can attack wherever they want, Bakhmut is just a Stalingrad for them that binds the Russians while they can probe and attack elsewhere. Ukraine has been forcing crossings around the Dnepr in Kherson the last few days and even captured the islands at the mouth of the river leading into the black sea. Also the terrorist and partisan attacks inside Russia are still happening and the FSB seems unable to counter this. Yes things are really looking bleak for Russia, i certainly dont want to be a Russian infantrymen in a trench while western spy sattelites are basicly scanning evey inch of Ukraine 24/7 giving target lists to the Ukrainian army who then use drones with thermal vision to drop a bomb in your trench at night or strike at you with HIMARs or excalibur ammunition. In the end this will be come a drone war with remote controlled monster truck toys being packed with grenades charging enemy trenches. In which also Russia is at a distinct disadvantage as they are looking to China and Iran for their chips and drones. Which isnt really the best of the best quality unfortunatly for Russia.
I think you need to take whatever Prigozhin says with a full beaker of salt. He is a master. I mean he speaks a lot of truth plus a complex set of political messages. The fog of this war has been in the information dimension.
I don't want to weasel but I am going for Option 2. Ukraine needs to prove something and/or is pushed by the west. The question is what does the conclusion of Option 2 look like.
If they even make a small dent in a territory push and are able to retain it, it will be sold as a victory and the grind continues, which is the west's strategy.
I do not believe in this offensive at all. I suspect this so called special military operation is intended to trash the Donbass and drive out the local population. Then, when the dust settles, the oligarchs can gobble up the bread basket of the world for pennies on the dollar.