One cant ignore the fact that Prigozhin is another Khazar in a position of power running, what ultimately is a business know as Wagner ( What are the odds ? ) How much money is he, and the other upper echelons of Wagner, making from this ? Do the convict recruits even get paid, or are they just promised freedom after 6 months ?
Additionally, this " meat grinder " is probably designed to work both ways. Kill as many Russian Slavs and kill as Many Ukrainian Slavs, the more the merrier to the Khazars. Just enough shells and support are given, to both sides, to keep the grinder rolling. Everything else looks like theatrics on both sides.
Let me also add, that what can only be termed as the " spiritual " aspect is often overlooked in this conflict. Humans are energy producing beings and there is an energetic feeding frenzy going on in the Ukraine right now, as in most recent wars. The horror of slowly dying on the battlefield, getting disfigured, crippled, or the shock of seeing maimed corpses, releases vast amounts of " negative " energy. Someone / Something is feasting on this. The true " elite " of this sphere dont subscribe to the same spiritual " narratives " that the masses are taught to believe and are either feeding themselves or feeding their overlord/s , and the longer the " war " is dragged out the better the " dinner ".
If Wagner is using 6,000 shells per day, and the Russian MOD is only providing 2,000 shells/day or less, where is the rest coming from? Contributions from other Russian military units? Shipments from China or North Korea? Charitable donations from Russian patriots? Is this an open secret?
Prigozhin is talking about a front of 80 km (50 miles.) The active front at Bakhmut is maybe 5 miles at most, including the flanks. The rest of the 45 miles is seeing little if any movement. If a front is stationary, why is it required to fire any shells at all? Or, wouldn't it be sufficient to answer proportionately to whatever the enemy is using, i.e. for purposes of attacking their active artillery units? Surely the bulk of Wagner's shells must be used at Bakhmut, so why is it even relevant to talk about the entire length of the front?
How and why would the Russian army go about conquering Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Druzhkovka, and Konstantinovka without taking Bakhmut first, when Bakhmut controls major roads leading to those population centers? If it would be so easy to move westward all the way to the "Donbas Ring" then why has Wagner struggled just to outflank and create a cauldrin around Bakhmut?
If Bakhmut is (1) strategically insignificant and (2) defended by the highly effective Wagner group, while the rest of the Russian army is incompetent, then why are the Ukrainians focusing their efforts on defending Bakhmut? Why haven't they been attacking the incompetently defended Zaporozhye region all along?
I feel your overlooking an unpleasant reality that may be Russia`s tactic in this war.
BASICALLY, RUSSIA DOESN’T TRUST THE PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE DONBAS ESPECIALLY THE MORE WESTERN ONES LIKE IN ZAP & KHER.
Back in 2013/14 they did secret polling in Crimea & E Ukraine about re-joining Russia. In Crimea the feelings were overwhelmingly positive, in Donbas less so which isn’t surprising since around 100 years of people moving around for marriage and work has passed since it last became part of Russia (leave aside USSR).
Sentiment for being part of Russia falls off a cliff not far further west after you go past Donetsk which is partly why they were wary of doing this in 2014.
A quick advance would have meant having to look after millions of hostile ethic Ukrainians that would soon be following Iraq Insurgency tactics supported by CIA and others.
An absolute nightmare every time for a county and army to deal with
A slow advance means those areas are destroyed, ethnic Russians move to Russia, ethic Ukrainians move west.
All in all, empty areas like Bakhmut (assuming they take the last 2.5km) are easy to manage, they also achieve another tactic which is to shrink and weaken Ukraine taking their most productive industrial areas, reducing their future technological and manpower resource to threaten Russia which is another stated aim (demilitarisation)
No one is going to admit this is the plan as its too repugnant to their reputation and undermines the whole purpose of the SMO (these people all Russians that want to be part of Russia says Putin & all pro)
No one is going to admit a different reality and tactic for achieving this, don’t expect 5d sites to admit this either, the only one who alluded this was Zelensky himself a few months ago
Prigozhin is describing the Russian military how conservative Americans describe typical government employees . He is the poster boy for libertarianism. Privatize everything!
"PMC "Wagner" was denied the possibility of air flights for the transfer of personnel from Africa to the SMO..." 🤔
That's telling, especially when it's relentlessly said Ukraine/NATO is an existential threat to Russia. Quite a pickle for everyone involved, as part of the funding for the Wagner Group most likely comes via payments from dubious Africa chieftains who want to remain in power as China, US, and Russia vie for a piece of the rare earth mineral action.
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!"
Rolo, why are you still not discussing Putin? Trying to be a good boy, so that they'd let you into Russia after 4 years? Do you really think that, at this pace of events and the intensity of Kremlin's treachery, Putin will be in power in 4 years?
How come that Riley is not concerned about that - he keeps addressing Putin's role in all of this. Don't be so Putin-shy.
BTW: Putin looks weird and strange [1][2] - can anyone comment? Are those collagen injections? Look at his cheeks!
I already told you. If I rebel, it is in the name of the Emperor even if the rebellion is against the Emperor. Furthermore, the Emperor is always good and just, it is his advisers who mislead him.
I remember that, but still think you are just trying to be funny! So how do you explain/rationalize Riley's fearless approach, which I like when without sarcasm, even though he's too focused on immunization sometimes?
As you may guess, what I'd love to read, and quite sure others would do too, would be Whitney Webb's style articles digging deep into that globalist clown at the helm of Russia.
I hope that you realize that you sound like some 5D-ers regarding Putin - i.e. "emperor" is "good", but some rough people, come in the middle of the night, from time to time, and ruin things that he just "cannot" change back / fix for some reason - like keeping rubble free-float so that the WS can rob Russia for 20+ years anytime they want.
Because I don’t attack popular national leaders with populist support. It goes against what I believe and what is worse, the peasants mentally shut down when you attack their leader and stop listening. There is no point in attacking him when I can say all I need to say just fine. Once he’s ousted or loses peasant support, I’ll reconsider.
May 8, 2023·edited May 8, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker
I tend to agree with you, but they are fair game when they are out of office and trying to get back in, like Trump. I let him have it today in a new article.
I focused on his betrayal of his White, working class base as I feel that is his most egregious betrayal since they were the ones that put him in office.
Oh very true, I was enmeshed in Trump's personality cult for a long time too. You couldn't have gotten through to me then either. It wasn't until his J6 betrayal that I really understood who and what he was, so I tend to agree with you.
How will he ever lose support, if all follow your logic? Who is supposed to tell the truth?
As you know, change comes from people learning the truth and exposure of the traitor. That's the whole point of MSM control - to keep people in the dark as many don't shut down and don't stop listening when their "leader" is attacked.
Once he's out, people like myself will not be interested to read about him - he'll be forgotten like Gorbachev and Yeltsin - just another recruited apparatchik that was put in place by the powers that be to do some serious damage, that afterwards just retired without being arrested, facing trial for treason, and going to jail.
Last but not least, how will you know that support was lost, when Russian MSM is under control and pretty sure polls too?
I know that he has support because he does all the things he needs to do to maintain high support. It makes perfect sense that he would have 80%+ support. 1) he is a wartime president 2) everyone thinks russia is winning hard 3) the enemy has united russians with their blanket hatred directed at them 4) he has no competitors 5) he has control of the older demographic that watches state tv because state tv shows him in a positive light ... i could go on. the support is real. All he had to do was not lose this war.
Do you really think it is lost though? Missteps and problems sure, but the ukies don't seem able to push the Russians back either. They aren't retaking the ground they lost, and they can't get the ammo and weapons they need from the west to even try in a real way.
The best ukraine could hope for is a cease fire that gives them time to rearm, but I cannot see Putin going along with that after the Minsk agreements bullshit. Why would he? He knows they will just use it to rearm Ukraine and start the war all over again.
Do you think Strelkov doesn't know "the truth about Putin"? That Murz doesn't know? That the guys from Rusich dont know?
If Putin is thrown out of power tomorrow who do you expect is going to replace him? A bunch of 1488 TRVE patriots? A clone of Hitler or Ivan Grozny? Why do you think exactly 0 Russian patriots support revolution right now?
Nicholas the 2nds government was riddled with traitors and incompetent beuracrats, stupid spooks that did more harm than good, Anglophiles were everywhere, but WHO replaced him?
If Putin is overthrown WHO has the means and resources to take power right now? Strelkov and the angry patriots or the liberals who are looking to partition Russia? If you think it's Strelkov than its on you to explain the mechanics of how that will work. On the other hand the liberals already control the choke points in society, they already control finance, the media, the beuracracy, etc etc. Via Shoigu and Gerasimov they even have a choke hold on the military.
Thats how Kerenskys government came into power by the way, the Tsars disloyal government, press and generals threw him under the bus. Kerenskys regime retained all the worst aspects of the Tsarist government and introduced even gayer novelties into Russia like progressive social democracy. It was so hated that ignorant peasants and lower ranked military personnel often sided with the Bolsheviks against them. Again what makes you think this time it will go differently? Why do you believe if Putin is overthrown that the worst aspects of the current regime wont be retained only with even more dildos and trannies?
Kerenskys government was only liquidated after a brutal civil war and had Stalin not killed Trotsky and most his supporters Russia itself probably would have gone down in flames for good. And even than Stalin only killed most of Trotskys supporters, the ones he left alive were enough to ensure that the USSR was doomed long term and they probably even murdered Stalin in 53.
So please explain your head cannon about how this scenario will be avoided this time.
yeah but frankly this has been obvious for a year now to everybody except a small group of deluded Kremlin cheerleaders. US media long ago revealed how disorganized and dysfunctional the Russian military is. It's like debunking Qanon believers. Who cares?
Do not EVER believe the GAE's media. All of it pushes regime propaganda. Not for nothing is the GAE known as the Empire of Lies. The ethnic oligarchs that control the GAE's media constantly flood the country's population with lies of every kind. It is a never onslaught of falsehoods.
This is pretty horrifying stuff. Can any background or supporting stuff be found for it? I don't mean the statistics, of course, I mean for the politics, the utter sabotage of the Russian military machine.
Perhaps observers from the ranks of the Donbas fighters know something and have revealed it here and there?
Perhaps in Russia there are clerks or whatever can vouch for this ridiculous but lethal evildoing?
And what's the response to Simplicius's contention that Prigozhin now says all is fine:
Simplicitus is someone that really has a lot of potential for being a good analyst and I would be interested in hearing a conversation between him and Riley or Rolo. There are interesting easter eggs in his work like the revelation in his last essay that the Russians can jam HIMARS. I personally don't have trouble believing this, the problem is not that Russia doesn't have some 1st class gear its that there isnt enough of it, Russia doesn't train its guys on how to use it, and it seldom makes it to the front. Some former FSB spook named Michael Golovlev wrote a book recently called SMO Clausewitz and the Void about Russias systemic failures in the SMO and that whole phenomenon of Russia not leveraging any of its technological advantages is something he spills lots of ink on.
Golovlev blames bad Russian military doctrine and the framework of the SMO for this development and he actually makes a good case in that regard though I lean more towards treason. But since it seems like Russia can jam HIMARS how does Simplicitus square the fact that it doesn't? Golovlev would just say "well MoD wont leverage this advantage because they dont want to make any changes in regards to the framework of the SMO, anything that will make Russias leadership uncomfortable is off the table". That is actually reshuffling the deck on Russias end requires creativity and economic sacrifices that the current elite are incapable of and wont consider. Simplicitus would say what? That Russia is already jamming HIMARS? Tell that to the residents of Donetsk. That fact that Russia can but definitely isnt is yet one more piece of evidence that something is seriously wrong with how this war is being conducted on Russias end and its stairing Simplicitus right in the face. I mean he even brought this up himself.
Anyway as for the 5D crowd Simplicitus is the only one that Im aware of that appears to put lots and lots of work into his writing as far as backing up all his positions with relevant details. And he even had the class to admit that he doubts Russia is producing as many shells as Prigozhin claims. He will admit to the existence of and even reference Strelkov sometimes.
In short he seems to be very well informed from the same sources we use around here but is still drawing totally different conclusions. If he was purely in it for grift and shekels he wouldnt need to make his case in such detail, he could just rely on emotional appeal like the rest of the 5D crowd. In short I think he is a bonafide true believer.
Would be interesting to hear a conversation between a Russia Stronk true believer in good faith and Rolo.
I've tried to engage Simplicius about your issues. Maybe I haven't done an adequate job. But to the extent he's provided an answer, he says that Strelkov was wrong about Syria in 2016, and he was wrong to predict a Ukrainian victory in Bakhmut at the Spring Thaw. So, he asks: why should anybody take Strelkov seriously now? And he thinks you're just parroting Strelkov.
that is some shit logic and standards that he does not apply to himself. strelkov hedged his bets same as he does and he is on record predicting a great russian winter offensive and the collapse of the UAF by summer.
when i parrot strelkov, i provide direct quotes. i have been following him since fall and so these strange lies about how hes wrong all the time wont work on me.
I am still new to publishing on substack, I was not aware there were a lot of cliques on here. Seems weird to me, maybe they all came over together from Twitter?
These people act like high schoolers with their social cliques. Probably he is worried that Serge and whoever will stop giving him re-posts if he goes off the reservation at all.
On the macro level yeah I think he is wrong. But Ill admit to him sometimes digging up interesting info. For example he made a good case for Wagner being GRU and backed it up with some actual data and what not. His work isnt 100% worthless but his big picture analysis isnt right.
As for the book I don't even know if you can find it anywhere in countries that dont have Wildberries which is like the Russian Amazon. And it probably won't ever be translated into English anyway.
doesn't matter. I'm getting very accustomed to making sense of google translate stuff - and we've even got chat gpt now... if you can find some kind of link for me.. if you think it worth reading...
The format is pretty annoying though. But sure its an interesting deep dive into how badly conceived Russian military doctrine is and how that bad doctrine coupled with the limitations of the SMO have produced a catastrophe which Russias current elite cant/wont correct. He shows how Russia is currently failing on all of Clausewitz's dictums.
that's a pretty powerful comment/accusation/statement isn't it?
tell you what: all I really care about is finding something better than this obviously terrible and unholy govt regime we're in here in the western world.
My hope was/is that it is with Russia and by that I mainly mean the Russian people: hoping that they're a people with more common sense, morality, intelligence, awareness, especially political awareness, than our people obviously have.
But I also had hopes for the Russian govt. of course. Persuaded by what I got from Putin over the last ten years.
That's it.
That's my interest.
I would like to hear pros and cons, evidences regarding that. Here, there, anywhere. This whole Ukraine thing is to me a part of all that.
Anyone knowing better or equally good places I should look please tell me.
Sometimes trying to be competent poses enough of a threat to draw people into power struggles. I hope Prigozhin is watching his back, and girding himself for the attempted stabs to come.
Hey, no one here is talking about the significance of Xi's talks with Zelensky - what's going on there? Has Putin begged Xi to try and get a deal? Certainly looks like it. And what could the deal be - well maybe a Ukie offensive and Russian retreat (not all the way to Crimea, just vacating the territory currently being evacuated and handing over the Zap nuclear power plant) so both sides can claim some kind of success: The Ukies gain more territory and the nuclear power plant, and the Kremlin having warded off the worst possibility by still hanging on the land bridge to Crimea. Putin's reward then being some kind of negotiations. But will that result in anything worthwhile for Russia - that will depend on whether Washington has had enough for now and wants to pursue other plans or if it just wants to string Putin along for a while, create further Russian demoralization, re-arm the Ukies, and start up again pushing even harder. Probably the latter I'd guess (Putin can then once again whine about being tricked by the duplicitous west).
I'm not sure how long the grifters at the Duran, Saker, and others can keep up with their lies. Today even the Australian news media is carrying stories detailing the catastrophic Russian failures pointing the finger of blame for these directly at Gerasimov's MOD and Shoigu; see this report which (apart from a few stats which can be challenged) is very insightful:
This report also goes further and points the finger directly at Putin as well, who appointed both and has resolutely kept both in position. I can understand why people in Russia may feel it is tactically necessary not to attack the Tsar directly (and too dangerous), but this does not apply to those outside, and that includes you Rolo. This Tsar is rotten and responsible for having created and maintaining a corrupt, rotten and treacherous administration. Like Gorbachov he will destroy his country if he is not replaced. And if that happens I don't think it will be allowed to recover again.
Re: the paywall - it's not me for me to suggest how someone should run their business, but it seems an odd way to respond to a shortage of subscriptions by lifting a paywall on the blog. How will that improve things? And why June? I wonder, does it have anything to do with the possibility that the predictions made here on this blog for the supposed Ukro offensive will not materialize? If they don't, i.e. if Russia is not defeated in a big way - it will be quite the embarrassment. And a big win for this 5D crowd which it has become the sole lofty mission of this blog to undermine. Well, well.........
Keep the good fight, don't change tactics, spread the truth, you're almost crushing all those 5D liars...
I'm also attacking at the unz review, trying to spread your truthfull word.
https://www.unz.com/comments/all/?commenterfilter=The+seventh+column
I just now read Pepe's piece, that's cool as shit, I think Pepe owes you a thousand bucks
Bravo, Rolo. I look forward to your assessment of Ukraine's terrorism in the Russian Federation in your new article.
One cant ignore the fact that Prigozhin is another Khazar in a position of power running, what ultimately is a business know as Wagner ( What are the odds ? ) How much money is he, and the other upper echelons of Wagner, making from this ? Do the convict recruits even get paid, or are they just promised freedom after 6 months ?
Additionally, this " meat grinder " is probably designed to work both ways. Kill as many Russian Slavs and kill as Many Ukrainian Slavs, the more the merrier to the Khazars. Just enough shells and support are given, to both sides, to keep the grinder rolling. Everything else looks like theatrics on both sides.
I have another big wagner article coming out soon.
Excellent.
Let me also add, that what can only be termed as the " spiritual " aspect is often overlooked in this conflict. Humans are energy producing beings and there is an energetic feeding frenzy going on in the Ukraine right now, as in most recent wars. The horror of slowly dying on the battlefield, getting disfigured, crippled, or the shock of seeing maimed corpses, releases vast amounts of " negative " energy. Someone / Something is feasting on this. The true " elite " of this sphere dont subscribe to the same spiritual " narratives " that the masses are taught to believe and are either feeding themselves or feeding their overlord/s , and the longer the " war " is dragged out the better the " dinner ".
"The wars are fake but the genocides of your people are real."
Ronald Bernard says that the "religious bankers" have their orgies at these times.
There ya go. A like, which I know you highly value.
I find this very puzzling.
If Wagner is using 6,000 shells per day, and the Russian MOD is only providing 2,000 shells/day or less, where is the rest coming from? Contributions from other Russian military units? Shipments from China or North Korea? Charitable donations from Russian patriots? Is this an open secret?
Prigozhin is talking about a front of 80 km (50 miles.) The active front at Bakhmut is maybe 5 miles at most, including the flanks. The rest of the 45 miles is seeing little if any movement. If a front is stationary, why is it required to fire any shells at all? Or, wouldn't it be sufficient to answer proportionately to whatever the enemy is using, i.e. for purposes of attacking their active artillery units? Surely the bulk of Wagner's shells must be used at Bakhmut, so why is it even relevant to talk about the entire length of the front?
How and why would the Russian army go about conquering Kramatorsk, Slavyansk, Druzhkovka, and Konstantinovka without taking Bakhmut first, when Bakhmut controls major roads leading to those population centers? If it would be so easy to move westward all the way to the "Donbas Ring" then why has Wagner struggled just to outflank and create a cauldrin around Bakhmut?
If Bakhmut is (1) strategically insignificant and (2) defended by the highly effective Wagner group, while the rest of the Russian army is incompetent, then why are the Ukrainians focusing their efforts on defending Bakhmut? Why haven't they been attacking the incompetently defended Zaporozhye region all along?
Hi Rolo:
I feel your overlooking an unpleasant reality that may be Russia`s tactic in this war.
BASICALLY, RUSSIA DOESN’T TRUST THE PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN THE DONBAS ESPECIALLY THE MORE WESTERN ONES LIKE IN ZAP & KHER.
Back in 2013/14 they did secret polling in Crimea & E Ukraine about re-joining Russia. In Crimea the feelings were overwhelmingly positive, in Donbas less so which isn’t surprising since around 100 years of people moving around for marriage and work has passed since it last became part of Russia (leave aside USSR).
Sentiment for being part of Russia falls off a cliff not far further west after you go past Donetsk which is partly why they were wary of doing this in 2014.
A quick advance would have meant having to look after millions of hostile ethic Ukrainians that would soon be following Iraq Insurgency tactics supported by CIA and others.
An absolute nightmare every time for a county and army to deal with
A slow advance means those areas are destroyed, ethnic Russians move to Russia, ethic Ukrainians move west.
All in all, empty areas like Bakhmut (assuming they take the last 2.5km) are easy to manage, they also achieve another tactic which is to shrink and weaken Ukraine taking their most productive industrial areas, reducing their future technological and manpower resource to threaten Russia which is another stated aim (demilitarisation)
No one is going to admit this is the plan as its too repugnant to their reputation and undermines the whole purpose of the SMO (these people all Russians that want to be part of Russia says Putin & all pro)
No one is going to admit a different reality and tactic for achieving this, don’t expect 5d sites to admit this either, the only one who alluded this was Zelensky himself a few months ago
Prigozhin is describing the Russian military how conservative Americans describe typical government employees . He is the poster boy for libertarianism. Privatize everything!
"PMC "Wagner" was denied the possibility of air flights for the transfer of personnel from Africa to the SMO..." 🤔
That's telling, especially when it's relentlessly said Ukraine/NATO is an existential threat to Russia. Quite a pickle for everyone involved, as part of the funding for the Wagner Group most likely comes via payments from dubious Africa chieftains who want to remain in power as China, US, and Russia vie for a piece of the rare earth mineral action.
"Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive!"
Rolo, why are you still not discussing Putin? Trying to be a good boy, so that they'd let you into Russia after 4 years? Do you really think that, at this pace of events and the intensity of Kremlin's treachery, Putin will be in power in 4 years?
How come that Riley is not concerned about that - he keeps addressing Putin's role in all of this. Don't be so Putin-shy.
BTW: Putin looks weird and strange [1][2] - can anyone comment? Are those collagen injections? Look at his cheeks!
[1] Putin and some oligarch: https://katyusha.org/assets/components/phpthumbof/cache/9238.5ad80905cbe7c291256fd9f95949cb731.jpg
[2] Putin face profile!!!: https://katyusha.org/assets/components/phpthumbof/cache/9234.303d051f6f2bc22292c5d66babdda15b58655.jpg
I already told you. If I rebel, it is in the name of the Emperor even if the rebellion is against the Emperor. Furthermore, the Emperor is always good and just, it is his advisers who mislead him.
I remember that, but still think you are just trying to be funny! So how do you explain/rationalize Riley's fearless approach, which I like when without sarcasm, even though he's too focused on immunization sometimes?
As you may guess, what I'd love to read, and quite sure others would do too, would be Whitney Webb's style articles digging deep into that globalist clown at the helm of Russia.
I hope that you realize that you sound like some 5D-ers regarding Putin - i.e. "emperor" is "good", but some rough people, come in the middle of the night, from time to time, and ruin things that he just "cannot" change back / fix for some reason - like keeping rubble free-float so that the WS can rob Russia for 20+ years anytime they want.
Have you seen these?
[1] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FUZHQiNWAAI9jcB?format=jpg
[2] https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FODklqMVQAY3ILU?format=jpg
Because I don’t attack popular national leaders with populist support. It goes against what I believe and what is worse, the peasants mentally shut down when you attack their leader and stop listening. There is no point in attacking him when I can say all I need to say just fine. Once he’s ousted or loses peasant support, I’ll reconsider.
I tend to agree with you, but they are fair game when they are out of office and trying to get back in, like Trump. I let him have it today in a new article.
I focused on his betrayal of his White, working class base as I feel that is his most egregious betrayal since they were the ones that put him in office.
Here is the story:
An Open Letter to Fat Orange Retard
https://morgthorak.substack.com/p/an-open-letter-to-fat-orange-retard
yeah, but you remember maybe how hard it was to convince anyone of his selling out while in office? impossible. i learned my lesson.
Oh very true, I was enmeshed in Trump's personality cult for a long time too. You couldn't have gotten through to me then either. It wasn't until his J6 betrayal that I really understood who and what he was, so I tend to agree with you.
How will he ever lose support, if all follow your logic? Who is supposed to tell the truth?
As you know, change comes from people learning the truth and exposure of the traitor. That's the whole point of MSM control - to keep people in the dark as many don't shut down and don't stop listening when their "leader" is attacked.
Once he's out, people like myself will not be interested to read about him - he'll be forgotten like Gorbachev and Yeltsin - just another recruited apparatchik that was put in place by the powers that be to do some serious damage, that afterwards just retired without being arrested, facing trial for treason, and going to jail.
Last but not least, how will you know that support was lost, when Russian MSM is under control and pretty sure polls too?
I know that he has support because he does all the things he needs to do to maintain high support. It makes perfect sense that he would have 80%+ support. 1) he is a wartime president 2) everyone thinks russia is winning hard 3) the enemy has united russians with their blanket hatred directed at them 4) he has no competitors 5) he has control of the older demographic that watches state tv because state tv shows him in a positive light ... i could go on. the support is real. All he had to do was not lose this war.
Do you really think it is lost though? Missteps and problems sure, but the ukies don't seem able to push the Russians back either. They aren't retaking the ground they lost, and they can't get the ammo and weapons they need from the west to even try in a real way.
The best ukraine could hope for is a cease fire that gives them time to rearm, but I cannot see Putin going along with that after the Minsk agreements bullshit. Why would he? He knows they will just use it to rearm Ukraine and start the war all over again.
Do you think Strelkov doesn't know "the truth about Putin"? That Murz doesn't know? That the guys from Rusich dont know?
If Putin is thrown out of power tomorrow who do you expect is going to replace him? A bunch of 1488 TRVE patriots? A clone of Hitler or Ivan Grozny? Why do you think exactly 0 Russian patriots support revolution right now?
Nicholas the 2nds government was riddled with traitors and incompetent beuracrats, stupid spooks that did more harm than good, Anglophiles were everywhere, but WHO replaced him?
If Putin is overthrown WHO has the means and resources to take power right now? Strelkov and the angry patriots or the liberals who are looking to partition Russia? If you think it's Strelkov than its on you to explain the mechanics of how that will work. On the other hand the liberals already control the choke points in society, they already control finance, the media, the beuracracy, etc etc. Via Shoigu and Gerasimov they even have a choke hold on the military.
Thats how Kerenskys government came into power by the way, the Tsars disloyal government, press and generals threw him under the bus. Kerenskys regime retained all the worst aspects of the Tsarist government and introduced even gayer novelties into Russia like progressive social democracy. It was so hated that ignorant peasants and lower ranked military personnel often sided with the Bolsheviks against them. Again what makes you think this time it will go differently? Why do you believe if Putin is overthrown that the worst aspects of the current regime wont be retained only with even more dildos and trannies?
Kerenskys government was only liquidated after a brutal civil war and had Stalin not killed Trotsky and most his supporters Russia itself probably would have gone down in flames for good. And even than Stalin only killed most of Trotskys supporters, the ones he left alive were enough to ensure that the USSR was doomed long term and they probably even murdered Stalin in 53.
So please explain your head cannon about how this scenario will be avoided this time.
yeah but frankly this has been obvious for a year now to everybody except a small group of deluded Kremlin cheerleaders. US media long ago revealed how disorganized and dysfunctional the Russian military is. It's like debunking Qanon believers. Who cares?
Do not EVER believe the GAE's media. All of it pushes regime propaganda. Not for nothing is the GAE known as the Empire of Lies. The ethnic oligarchs that control the GAE's media constantly flood the country's population with lies of every kind. It is a never onslaught of falsehoods.
This is pretty horrifying stuff. Can any background or supporting stuff be found for it? I don't mean the statistics, of course, I mean for the politics, the utter sabotage of the Russian military machine.
Perhaps observers from the ranks of the Donbas fighters know something and have revealed it here and there?
Perhaps in Russia there are clerks or whatever can vouch for this ridiculous but lethal evildoing?
And what's the response to Simplicius's contention that Prigozhin now says all is fine:
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-5723-prigozhins-masterpiece?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1351274&post_id=119895773&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
Simplicitus is someone that really has a lot of potential for being a good analyst and I would be interested in hearing a conversation between him and Riley or Rolo. There are interesting easter eggs in his work like the revelation in his last essay that the Russians can jam HIMARS. I personally don't have trouble believing this, the problem is not that Russia doesn't have some 1st class gear its that there isnt enough of it, Russia doesn't train its guys on how to use it, and it seldom makes it to the front. Some former FSB spook named Michael Golovlev wrote a book recently called SMO Clausewitz and the Void about Russias systemic failures in the SMO and that whole phenomenon of Russia not leveraging any of its technological advantages is something he spills lots of ink on.
Golovlev blames bad Russian military doctrine and the framework of the SMO for this development and he actually makes a good case in that regard though I lean more towards treason. But since it seems like Russia can jam HIMARS how does Simplicitus square the fact that it doesn't? Golovlev would just say "well MoD wont leverage this advantage because they dont want to make any changes in regards to the framework of the SMO, anything that will make Russias leadership uncomfortable is off the table". That is actually reshuffling the deck on Russias end requires creativity and economic sacrifices that the current elite are incapable of and wont consider. Simplicitus would say what? That Russia is already jamming HIMARS? Tell that to the residents of Donetsk. That fact that Russia can but definitely isnt is yet one more piece of evidence that something is seriously wrong with how this war is being conducted on Russias end and its stairing Simplicitus right in the face. I mean he even brought this up himself.
Anyway as for the 5D crowd Simplicitus is the only one that Im aware of that appears to put lots and lots of work into his writing as far as backing up all his positions with relevant details. And he even had the class to admit that he doubts Russia is producing as many shells as Prigozhin claims. He will admit to the existence of and even reference Strelkov sometimes.
In short he seems to be very well informed from the same sources we use around here but is still drawing totally different conclusions. If he was purely in it for grift and shekels he wouldnt need to make his case in such detail, he could just rely on emotional appeal like the rest of the 5D crowd. In short I think he is a bonafide true believer.
Would be interesting to hear a conversation between a Russia Stronk true believer in good faith and Rolo.
I've tried! He doesn't want to. And why would he? He gets linked by the other fools and he's 3x bigger than me so why take such a risk?
I've tried to engage Simplicius about your issues. Maybe I haven't done an adequate job. But to the extent he's provided an answer, he says that Strelkov was wrong about Syria in 2016, and he was wrong to predict a Ukrainian victory in Bakhmut at the Spring Thaw. So, he asks: why should anybody take Strelkov seriously now? And he thinks you're just parroting Strelkov.
that is some shit logic and standards that he does not apply to himself. strelkov hedged his bets same as he does and he is on record predicting a great russian winter offensive and the collapse of the UAF by summer.
when i parrot strelkov, i provide direct quotes. i have been following him since fall and so these strange lies about how hes wrong all the time wont work on me.
only reason syria was not a disaster is because it was mostly ran by wagner... not much wiggle room for kremlin backstabbers
Is he part of the Substack mafia you mentioned awhile back?
don't know about him, but he gets reposted by big serge and those types.
... and by DS.
I am still new to publishing on substack, I was not aware there were a lot of cliques on here. Seems weird to me, maybe they all came over together from Twitter?
probably. twitter is insanely cliquey as well. the stakes are high on twitter.com
These people act like high schoolers with their social cliques. Probably he is worried that Serge and whoever will stop giving him re-posts if he goes off the reservation at all.
this is the only thing that explains why they behave the way that they do
so simplicius is simply wrong?
where do we find this book 'SMO Clausewitz' ?
On the macro level yeah I think he is wrong. But Ill admit to him sometimes digging up interesting info. For example he made a good case for Wagner being GRU and backed it up with some actual data and what not. His work isnt 100% worthless but his big picture analysis isnt right.
As for the book I don't even know if you can find it anywhere in countries that dont have Wildberries which is like the Russian Amazon. And it probably won't ever be translated into English anyway.
I didnt know about hte Wagner being GRU stuff. i mean, I've known about that for a year, but i'd be interested in reading what new info he dug up.
doesn't matter. I'm getting very accustomed to making sense of google translate stuff - and we've even got chat gpt now... if you can find some kind of link for me.. if you think it worth reading...
what's 'gru' ?
You could read some of it online here as far as I can tell.
https://kniga-online.com/books/dokumentalnye-knigi/publicism/322298-svo-klauzevic-i-pustota-politologicheskii-analiz.html
The format is pretty annoying though. But sure its an interesting deep dive into how badly conceived Russian military doctrine is and how that bad doctrine coupled with the limitations of the SMO have produced a catastrophe which Russias current elite cant/wont correct. He shows how Russia is currently failing on all of Clausewitz's dictums.
" Perhaps observers from the ranks of the Donbas fighters know something and have revealed it here and there? "
Many of the important ones that would protest have already been eliminated and I doubt it was the Ukrainians that did it.
that's a pretty powerful comment/accusation/statement isn't it?
tell you what: all I really care about is finding something better than this obviously terrible and unholy govt regime we're in here in the western world.
My hope was/is that it is with Russia and by that I mainly mean the Russian people: hoping that they're a people with more common sense, morality, intelligence, awareness, especially political awareness, than our people obviously have.
But I also had hopes for the Russian govt. of course. Persuaded by what I got from Putin over the last ten years.
That's it.
That's my interest.
I would like to hear pros and cons, evidences regarding that. Here, there, anywhere. This whole Ukraine thing is to me a part of all that.
Anyone knowing better or equally good places I should look please tell me.
the kingdom of god is within you! look nowhere else! meditate! escape the cube!
yep, I'll go along with that... but it's easier said than done.... :)
Copium laced with misguided hopium an explosive kasha maketh. Godspeed in fighting that! 🤩
Sometimes trying to be competent poses enough of a threat to draw people into power struggles. I hope Prigozhin is watching his back, and girding himself for the attempted stabs to come.
Hey, no one here is talking about the significance of Xi's talks with Zelensky - what's going on there? Has Putin begged Xi to try and get a deal? Certainly looks like it. And what could the deal be - well maybe a Ukie offensive and Russian retreat (not all the way to Crimea, just vacating the territory currently being evacuated and handing over the Zap nuclear power plant) so both sides can claim some kind of success: The Ukies gain more territory and the nuclear power plant, and the Kremlin having warded off the worst possibility by still hanging on the land bridge to Crimea. Putin's reward then being some kind of negotiations. But will that result in anything worthwhile for Russia - that will depend on whether Washington has had enough for now and wants to pursue other plans or if it just wants to string Putin along for a while, create further Russian demoralization, re-arm the Ukies, and start up again pushing even harder. Probably the latter I'd guess (Putin can then once again whine about being tricked by the duplicitous west).
I'm not sure how long the grifters at the Duran, Saker, and others can keep up with their lies. Today even the Australian news media is carrying stories detailing the catastrophic Russian failures pointing the finger of blame for these directly at Gerasimov's MOD and Shoigu; see this report which (apart from a few stats which can be challenged) is very insightful:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-09/russia-ukraine-gerasimov-putin-four-key-failures/102315862
This report also goes further and points the finger directly at Putin as well, who appointed both and has resolutely kept both in position. I can understand why people in Russia may feel it is tactically necessary not to attack the Tsar directly (and too dangerous), but this does not apply to those outside, and that includes you Rolo. This Tsar is rotten and responsible for having created and maintaining a corrupt, rotten and treacherous administration. Like Gorbachov he will destroy his country if he is not replaced. And if that happens I don't think it will be allowed to recover again.
Re: the paywall - it's not me for me to suggest how someone should run their business, but it seems an odd way to respond to a shortage of subscriptions by lifting a paywall on the blog. How will that improve things? And why June? I wonder, does it have anything to do with the possibility that the predictions made here on this blog for the supposed Ukro offensive will not materialize? If they don't, i.e. if Russia is not defeated in a big way - it will be quite the embarrassment. And a big win for this 5D crowd which it has become the sole lofty mission of this blog to undermine. Well, well.........
He has figured out the conspiracy, rolo wants to flee the qtards who are going to pawn him.