Putin May Announce Victory and Scale Down of Operations in Ukraine in Big Upcoming Speech

Is it already over?

I have advanced the thesis that a backroom deal is being made between Moscow and Kiev and Washington before.

We Are Entering the Final Phase of This Farce of a War

The relevant bits:

In the meantime, I am starting to have serious doubts about the much-prophesized Russian winter offensive. Perhaps what we are seeing now is all we’re going to get. If not, then perhaps we do indeed need to wait for the 1-year anniversary to see Russian units move in from the north.

Arestovich, who has been remarkably candid in recent months, believes that a dogovornyak between the two sides is brewing behind the scenes again.

Koba @Roberto05246129

Former adviser to Zelensky said that the West is preparing the best negotiating positions for peace. Acc to Arestovich, Ukraine gives the Donbass to Russia, while the AFU break through the Southern Front and make peace at this exchange.

He says that, basically, both sides are looking to secure some kind of face-saving compromise in the coming months. He also agrees with what Strelkov is saying: that no large-scale operations are being planned by Russia. And that the US is looking to change the focus of their attention. Possibly, this has something to do with the China pivot that they have been telegramming in recent days.

If this scenario is indeed being worked hammered out in the backrooms, then the only real question left is: who gets what. Here, not only will land be negotiated for, but trade deals and access to raw markets and other such considerations taken into account. The ethnic lawyers will serve as middlemen between the two sides and pocket hefty fees for their services, naturally.

In the meantime, with the clock possibly running out on this war, it makes sense that those trying to make a name for themselves or squeeze out a few advantages are making moves while there is still time to do so, greater strategic objectives a distant second or third order of consideration.

The lack of escalation from the Kremlin’s side is further proof of their desire to wrap things up before things get too out of hand. Furthermore, rhetoric about “Satanism” aside, they clearly all just want to go back to things being the way that they were.

And now, we have a rumor surfacing about the contents of the much-anticipated Putin speech anticipated for February 21.

Kapital:

Russian President Vladimir Putin may announce the end of a “special military operation” and the start of a “counter-terrorist operation” in Ukraine during his address to the Federal Assembly on February 21.

The Not-War is quickly morphing into a Not-Even-A-War.

The Moscow Times writes about this with reference to two political technologists cooperating with the presidential administration. “The message itself takes place in the mode of a special operation. First, it was hidden for a long time that the message would be at the beginning of the year. Secondly, public meetings were held with the leaders of systemic parties - this usually does not happen before a message. Thirdly, on February 22, a concert-rally with the participation of the president is scheduled. The main thing in this, of course, is not a concert, but a rally, ”explained one of the interlocutors participating in meetings of the Internal Affairs Department of the presidential administration.

At the same time, he made the reservation that no one knows what the final decision will be, except for the president and his inner circle. However, the Russian elite will be optimistic about the transition to the CTO regime, since this could lead to a de-escalation of the conflict.

The “counter-terrorist operation” (CTO) regime is regulated by the law “On Combating Terrorism” and is introduced in territories where terrorist attacks or military clashes can potentially occur. The mode is terminated with the disappearance of the threat. In 1999, the CTO regime was introduced in Chechnya and was canceled only in April 2009.

Political strategist Konstantin Kalachev believes that now the main task of the Kremlin is to present Ukraine as an aggressor country. “The special military operation can be completed only with access to the administrative borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. After that, in order not to look like an aggressor, we can talk about protecting Russian borders. Instead of CBO, you can offer OO. defensive operation. But this is purely hypothetical,” Kalachev said.

The transition to the CTO can be imagined as a victory, emphasizes political scientist Ilya Grashchenkov: since the goals of the NWO were not clearly formulated and changed several times, one can, for example, say that they managed to “denazify” and “demilitarize” the new territories.

Yes, moving from SMO to anti-terror operation is a scale down in operations. Of course, it can only occur if Ukraine agrees to scale down as well. Which, judging from their continued mobilization efforts, is not what is occurring at all.

How can you make a deal with the other side when the other side continues to attack?

Me, I’m just speculating here, but there are three ways to analyze what may or may not happen. First, we can look at what Russia is doing.

In short, nothing. There is no large scale offensive yet. In fact, Zelensky is saying that this is it. That this is the big offensive and it is happening right now.

Максим Ѓорѓија @SoldieroftruthV

@John_Gemma922 @Antonia_Bronk @KramarenkoMari3 @StratcomCentre Zelensky when he was normal man.

Oh wait, wrong link.

GraphicW @GraphicW5

Ukrainian President Zelensky said a predicted Russian spring offensive had already begun. "Russian attacks are already happening from several directions," he said. In a BBC interview to mark a year since Russia's full-scale invasion, he warned conceding land would mean Russia… https://t.co/YfOdXyB5Ot

And yet, many mobilized Russian soldiers still remain off the frontlines in their “polygons” and have not been deployed. There also hasn’t been a switch to a wartime economy nor any notable increase in military production. All we have is a few tactical level actions around Bakhmut and Ugledar that, even if they were successful, would be inconclusive and not change anything, really.

So, judging by Russia’s recent lack of effort, I would have guessed that they’re looking to end this thing.

And then, from the perspective of Washington, the recent China pivot might either be an elaborate fake-out to get Russia to let down it’s guard, or, it’s real, and Washington is seriously thinking about changing its focus.

Finally, from the Ukrainian side, well, they appear to be preparing a large counter-offensive. Probably to prove to Washington that they can get the job done and to not pull the plug on the war effort.

So, in terms of indicators, we have two out of three of the actors who seem to be leaning towards wrapping things up. Meanwhile, Ukraine and unhinged members of the ethnic neocon cabal in the West like the Nulands continue to call for the return of all of Donbass and even Crimea. So, it’s totally up in the air as of now. We’re just speculating amongst ourselves at this point. No one knows what the inner circle will do. Least of all the Russia experts who failed to even predict the start of the SMO and condemned all rumors about it as balderdash.

But are there any signs that Russia is getting serious about this war? Well, no.

But do they have to save face at both home and abroad? Well, yes.

So they need something to show for the war.

Now, I think that a scale down is a bad outcome. Calling it quits now when Russian society has NOT fundamentally changed and remains in the hands of the crooks and spooks and only having a few hundred thousand slavs dead to show for the last year of fighting and a few territories under lock and key is, at best, a pyrrhic victory, if it can even be called a victory. Ukraine is now militarized, organized, subsidized and hostile. Is there any guarantee that further offensives won’t occur?

Did Minsk I or II resolve anything?

But the 21st is coming soon. Let’s see what Putin has to say and reconvene then.