Russia Might Retreat Again
Yeah.
So, again, my running prediction is that Russia would not go on the attack any time soon and that Ukraine would be the one deciding the tempo of the war going forward. I said that they would organize a counter-attack in the south. Seeing as this is now openly being announced by Ukraine and taken seriously even on state media in Russia, I’d say that I made a good prediction.
The prophecy is about 90% fulfilled, all we have to do is wait for the green light at this point.
The next question then is: can Russia hold off the attack?
Well, if they can they can … but, what if they think that they can’t?
If Russia’s generals conclude that they don’t have enough men and equipment, then they will simply retreat. They did this in the north and they did this in Kherson. It was the correct decision in both cases even though, politically, it was a difficult one and a PR disaster. The other option was to get surrounded and to lose many men. So, we should be grateful that things are not that far gone that military realities can be ignored totally by the Kremlin.
So, do I feel comfortable predicting a Russian retreat?
Well, no, not yet.
But here are the key giveaways that we should keep an eye out for.
Official statements from Russian officials about “difficult decisions” having to be made
A mass evacuation of civilians
Another key bit of information that we ought to look for is the number of soldiers that Russia has in the south. If, like before around Kharkov or Kherson, we learn that there aren’t enough men, then we can safely assume that Russia will simply retreat. So far though, it has been difficult to ascertain just how many men Russia has in the field, or, more importantly, in Zaporozhye, where the attack is expected to come.
Ukraine is now engaging in propaganda warfare on the eve of the offensive. The goal of thumping their chests and talking about all the new missiles and tanks that that they have amassed seems straight-forward enough to me: to convince the Russians to retreat again. Yes, Zelensky complains to the West that he doesn’t have enough money and weapons, but internal Ukrainian propaganda is triumphalist. It is clear to me why Zelensky would want to take two separate positions with two separate audiences, but, apparently, it is not obvious to other analysts.
Also, thanks to the 5D bloggers, millions of people are now convinced that Russia has revolutionized modern warfare with their use of artillery, and so a much smaller Russian force can not only hold off, but also go on the offensive against and inflict heavy casualties on their Ukrainian foes. But this is absolute nonsense. Numbers matter and they matter a lot. In fact, they are the deciding factor here, because the Ukrainians are not aborigines armed with flint-tip spears, but peer-rivals to the Russian soldiers.
So, one year + into this conflict, I’d like to share some key lessons about war that I picked up along the way that will also help you make informed predictions yourselves going forward.
Larger armies tend to defeat smaller armies
Blitzkrieg combined arms offensives are superior to static defense
Armies that are outnumbered will retreat if they have the option instead of fighting at a disadvantage
Attacking defensible positions is a costly endeavor and you lose more men than you kill
Defensible positions that get surrounded become sieges, and only relief can prevent a mass surrender of an encircled foe
These lessons are already known to most people who are military history enthusiasts or who enjoy playing RTS strategy games. It is unclear why so many people decided to pretend that these concepts no longer apply and are irrelevant to analyzing the current war.
Now, there is still a chance that Russia actually is prepared to defend against the coming Ukrainian attack. The evidence is not yet conclusive either one way or another. But, usually, an opponent does not go on the offensive unless they think that they have a good chance of succeeding. And, it seems that alarm bells have started to ring all up and down Russian media.
I wait for some official announcements regarding evacuation or “difficult decisions” having to be made from the Russian side or a decent head-count tally before I stake Slavland Chronicles’ stellar reputation on predicting what happens next. I also don’t really think I’ll have much to say on the looming attack going forward until the relevant information becomes available. It’s just a waiting and watching game now.
…
In the meantime, you really should make a strategic retreat behind my pay-wall. I put a lot of effort into the latest post and the Stalkers seem to be really enjoying it!
Seriously!
Go do it now!
There’s content for days behind the paywall!
I'd be more worried if there was news about "strategic withdrawals" or other news similar to what happened in Kherson. If they aren't giving up their positions, I'm just going to assume that Russia believes they do have the manpower to hold the line.
It also feels like this "last hurrah" offensive against Russia is directed at the Western audience who's very apathetic to the war at this point and is becoming more resentful of it. There are also deep US political forces that want to switch the focus to China and Taiwan (CSIS published a paper advocating for this), so this latest Ukrainian offensive could be that crowd of the deep state asserting that they still want to keep this Ukraine thing going a bit more.
I guess we'll just have to wait and find out what the hell is going on.
I don't see any variant where Russia retreats and Putin keeps whatever power he currently has. Retreat in the South/South West and Ukraine in striking distance of Crimea. Give up Bakhmut, Soldar, Lichansk and Sever Donetsk? If Vladlen Tartarskys murder really was associated with controlling the info to Putin than perhaps bringing about such a retreat is exactly what the liberals are trying to do? Lose the war and get rid of Putin? Because that is a straight defeat we are talking about. There is literally nowhere left to retreat that allows the somewhat patriotic crook faction to survive politically. Retreat means the liberals have won.
If the Putinist for lack of a better term give up Bakhmut, Soldar etc you are going to have the spectacle of the police busting the heads of protesting SMO verterans including Wagner guys. Prigozhin despite his flaws has always kept ranks with his own guys when they are expressing righteous anger. I assume the Putinist signing off on surrendering their very, very hard won gains in the East isnt something he is going to let pass with expressing serious fury and he wont counter signal his men flipping out about it. Prigozhin will back the guys who skulls the police will need to crack. Any shred of tolerance the Patriots give the Putinist will be gone for good. They will be utterly alone and isolated.
Surrendering the South and presumably the land corridor to crimea wouldnt entail confrontation with Prigozhin directly and I imagine the Putinist will try and spin holding crimea itself as the great victory that denazifis Ukraine. Of course that is only if Russia only loses the land corridor and what they have right now in Kherson. But even that best case of holding Crimea itself and spinning it as winning the war also entails losing all of Patriotic Russias tolerance for the Putinist.
The only difference between the 2 retreat scenarios I see is the 1st might create outright revolutionary instability fast and the second will just be a basic political death sentence for the Putinist. Either way Putins crew loses everything, its just a bit slower with option 2. Maybe Im going way too far with the tinfoil here but I cant help but feel like Vladlens murder was to help make retreat and the following political death of Putin more likely. That's because Vladlen would have been on channel 1 saying exactly what Im saying here and that might give the Putinist pause about signing off on another successful regrouping.
Smells more and more like 1917.