SouthFront Reports Shell Shortage; Shoigu vs Wagner Squabble
Vindicated!
It appears that the rumors, if true, of a feudal squabble between Wagner and the MoD are getting picked up by other projects.
This, despite the protests of the 5D crowd.
I have always been impressed by the quality of work of SouthFront. They keep things simple and follow the facts. As a result, for some reason, they’re not as big as the other bloggers. This shouldn’t be too surprising. People prefer their fairytales.
Several videos of Wagner fighters addressing the Russian military and political leadership were recently shared online.
In one of the videos, artillerymen of the Wagner PMC appealed to the Russian Ministry of Defense:
“We are members of the artillery unit of the Wagner PMC. Every day we carry out complex combat missions and cover our assault groups.
At the moment, we are completely cut off from the supply of ammunition. Right now, there is an acute shortage of ammunition for howitzers, 152 mm D-1, also for the MT-12 anti—tank gun, of 100 mm, high-explosive ammunition for the T—72 tank – and of 125 mm high-explosive shells for the 120 mm mortar 2B11.
We appeal to our colleagues and friends from the Ministry of Defense.
We are sure that you have ammunition somewhere in your warehouses. We need it badly. We would be extremely grateful if you would help us, and supply this ammunition.
A huge number of people will survive and will be able to continue taking part in hostilities, and this will affect the entire course of the war.
We will work for you, we will do this job. Help us with the ammunition.”
Every day we lose hundreds of our comrades-in-arms. There could have been far fewer losses if we had been supplied with weapons and ammunition, with everything that is necessary. Stop messing around. Let us fight. Let us defend our country, our homeland. There are hundreds of our guys here. Send your children to fight, and your sons-in-laws who are making Tik-Tok videos, instead.
The head of the Wagner PMC, Evgeny Prigozhin, was asked by the media to comment on this video. Here is his response:
“Note that these wonderful fighters are heroes who die for our homeland, they did not call anyone obscene words and did not discredit the Ministry of Defense in any way. They simply asked their colleagues for ammunition, and gave a detailed list of what they needed.”
Earlier, the process of recruiting Russian prisoners to the Wagner assault units had been halted. Evgeny Prigozhin confirmed this, and commented that he did not understand why it was necessary to destroy a streamlined process that had already proven its effectiveness on the battlefield.
Today, the Wagner PMC is the most effective of the Russian units on the Ukrainian battlefields. Apparently, the success of Prigozhin’s fighters is the envy of some Russian military officials. Otherwise, it is difficult to explain these developments.
Bingo.
It is difficult to explain these developments otherwise. The only other explanation that has been given is that Wagner has been wasteful and used up all of its allocated ammo.
Seeing as most of the fighting has been concentrated in Bakhmut, I don’t really buy the explanation that the shells are necessary for other fronts. What other fronts? As far as we can see, there is some action in the south, but by and large it’s all going down in Bakhmut.
SouthFront continues:
It looks like there is a new round of in-fighting between the elite factions within the Russian government; to be more exact, a confrontation between the so-called ‘liberals’ and the ‘patriots’.
Where else have we heard about such in-fighting?
Oh yes, this blog, which went into far greater depth on the nature of the struggle and the factions.
Feel free to acquaint yourself with the position on the blog on the internal factions here and here.
One aspect of this struggle may be the recent change in the command of Russia’s military districts. On February 17, the Defense Ministry announced the appointment of new commanders of the Central, Southern, Western and Eastern Military Districts.
Interestingly, on February 16, former presidential aide Vladislav Surkov, who was in charge of Ukrainian issues from 2014 to 2020 and took part in the development of the Minsk agreements, stated that he personally did not proceed on the assumption that the agreements would be fulfilled. Previously, he had always claimed that Russia had counted on the implementation of these agreements.
Vladislav Surkov is known for his liberal views.
A Liberal with pro-Western views forming policy for the Russian government?
Can’t be!
Only Ukrainian-sleeper-cell-demoralization-British-Fascist bloggers like Rolo and Strelkov talk about how there are traitors are in the Russian government!
REEEEEEEE!!!
All these events in Russia are taking place on the eve of a key speech from Putin; his annual Presidential Address to the Federal Assembly. The speech, scheduled for February 21st, is expected to be a turning point in terms of Russian political reality.
Yep.
We’re all strapped in, waiting to hear the big news.
There has been speculation that a scale down in operations is to be announced. Here:
But while we’re waiting, I’ve got a few more articles planned.
The big one is the inside story on how Shoigu got his job. Ever hear of the Tuvan mafia? You’re going to want to be a paid sub for when that one comes out.
Tomorrow, probably.
According to Strelkov one of the reasons Surovikin was sidelined was because he had a good working relationships with Wagner. He suspects that Wagner has been getting slowly strangled since Gerasimov was put directly over Surovikin but it's only now becoming terminal because while Surovikin was in charge Wagner built up a surplus.
Shell hunger really is a big problem, Russia produces lots of shells but its not enough to cover the needs of the Army and Wagner. The 5D rubes are right that Russian shell production is getting better and better but they dont factor in that modern SMO not wars require more shells than WW1 basically. Murz here says the DNR and LNR troops during autumn and winter were constantly thrown into attacks with barely any armor or artillery support.
https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/1431
It seems unlikely to me that Surovikin would be deliberately showing favouritism to Wagner seeing as how he is military himself. Presumably he just figured Wagner would make the best use of the shells due to having better mid and upper level coordination and management. Not to mention a higher threshold for sustaining losses due to having access to convicts.
But yeah if we were to draw 2 columns on a chalk board, one for what Russia is doing well and a needs improvement column I literally dont know at all what we could put in the doing well column. This is such a shit show and dumpster fire that is become straight painful to follow.
My personal head cannon for what might be happening now is that factions aligned in some way with the unfortunately useless and traitorous MoD officials around Shoigu arent simply butthurt about Wagner saying bad things about them but they actually want Wagner as bled dry and neutralised as possible. If a shameful and bad "peace" is around the corner and Putin is making an exit than instability could be incoming. Shoigu appears to have MoD locked down but the traitors and scum also need to ensure there arent other large groups of armed angry men that could make a play for power.
If we are about to see another Brest tier capitulation than Prigozhin and Wagner could present a huge problem after all. Kadyrov seems to be more loyal to Putin than Russia in general but he also has a good relationship with Prigozhin apparently. Putin is becoming a non entity but Kadyrov cant rally genuine popular support around himself amongst the non Muslims anymore than Shoigu. Prigozhin could though, and Wagner plus the Chechnyans would be a huge headache for crooks making a post Putin power play. So neutering Prigozhin is a priority.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-update-218-major-war-confirmed
The 5D "any day now" perspective. We'll see who's right, Rolo! I find your lack of faith disturbing; trust in Darth Putin. Lol
I see the de-escalation as quite plausible. Wagner is an embarrassment. A PMC filled with criminals cannot be allowed to outperform the Russian Army. Only Wagner has gained any ground albeit slowly. I think Wagner smells the doublecross coming from the Liberals and defeat being pried from the jaws of victory. Prigozhin is trying to force the issue perhaps hoping to sway someone in Putin's inner circle or the man himself or even just to let the Russian public know who to blame. The mob could be useful down the road.