According to Strelkov one of the reasons Surovikin was sidelined was because he had a good working relationships with Wagner. He suspects that Wagner has been getting slowly strangled since Gerasimov was put directly over Surovikin but it's only now becoming terminal because while Surovikin was in charge Wagner built up a surplus.
Shell hunger really is a big problem, Russia produces lots of shells but its not enough to cover the needs of the Army and Wagner. The 5D rubes are right that Russian shell production is getting better and better but they dont factor in that modern SMO not wars require more shells than WW1 basically. Murz here says the DNR and LNR troops during autumn and winter were constantly thrown into attacks with barely any armor or artillery support.
It seems unlikely to me that Surovikin would be deliberately showing favouritism to Wagner seeing as how he is military himself. Presumably he just figured Wagner would make the best use of the shells due to having better mid and upper level coordination and management. Not to mention a higher threshold for sustaining losses due to having access to convicts.
But yeah if we were to draw 2 columns on a chalk board, one for what Russia is doing well and a needs improvement column I literally dont know at all what we could put in the doing well column. This is such a shit show and dumpster fire that is become straight painful to follow.
My personal head cannon for what might be happening now is that factions aligned in some way with the unfortunately useless and traitorous MoD officials around Shoigu arent simply butthurt about Wagner saying bad things about them but they actually want Wagner as bled dry and neutralised as possible. If a shameful and bad "peace" is around the corner and Putin is making an exit than instability could be incoming. Shoigu appears to have MoD locked down but the traitors and scum also need to ensure there arent other large groups of armed angry men that could make a play for power.
If we are about to see another Brest tier capitulation than Prigozhin and Wagner could present a huge problem after all. Kadyrov seems to be more loyal to Putin than Russia in general but he also has a good relationship with Prigozhin apparently. Putin is becoming a non entity but Kadyrov cant rally genuine popular support around himself amongst the non Muslims anymore than Shoigu. Prigozhin could though, and Wagner plus the Chechnyans would be a huge headache for crooks making a post Putin power play. So neutering Prigozhin is a priority.
The 5D "any day now" perspective. We'll see who's right, Rolo! I find your lack of faith disturbing; trust in Darth Putin. Lol
I see the de-escalation as quite plausible. Wagner is an embarrassment. A PMC filled with criminals cannot be allowed to outperform the Russian Army. Only Wagner has gained any ground albeit slowly. I think Wagner smells the doublecross coming from the Liberals and defeat being pried from the jaws of victory. Prigozhin is trying to force the issue perhaps hoping to sway someone in Putin's inner circle or the man himself or even just to let the Russian public know who to blame. The mob could be useful down the road.
Didn't know if you may have seen this. Got it from a Telegram channel, pro-Rus. Just thought I'd drop it in, JIC. Ths was either yesterday or today, methinks.
But I am incensed, to the Nth (!!)...This is utter and blatant BETRAYAL of the guys doing the MOUT, the most dangerous of all ops, being fucked-over so damn badly-(IF it's the case, seems legit, though) by petty politicking...I could go on, but I ain't. (insert appropriate Russian curse word here!)
Seems to me that they want to just grind Wagner into dust, maybe replace them with the "new entrepreneur" from Chechnya (?)...probably...
Probably want to keep Wagner doing OOC missions, far and away from mother Russia once they have completed their task of pinning down the Ukes long enough...then get him and his crew away from the country.
Yevgeny might be running the guys in the fertile new lands of the southern hemisphere, at least until the States collapse...
THAT is gonna be a real boon for Mercs from all over the world.
What the hell, I could use the Jew-stamps ; -)
Thanks for your insights, Rollo, have an awesomernhell day!
"Yevgeny Prigozhin:
« As they say, shit boils, blood spills, but the questions that I asked about ammunition, unfortunately, remain absolutely unresolved. This is the most serious problem. Moreover, there is ammunition in the country, statements have been made about this more than once. The industry has reached the required volumes. It gives what the country needs. Moreover, it gives with a margin.
I know warehouses, I know lot numbers, I know box numbers. I clearly understand where everything is. And I know that these ammunition is available. But I can not solve this problem despite all my acquaintances and connections. Everything sinks and sticks. No decisions are being made.
Generals, officers, in military headquarters, in various positions help in any way they can. They help with all their might. They try. Resist. Sometimes military laws are broken to give us the extra ammo we desperately need.
No one has any understanding of where certain limits come from. Where did the procedures for obtaining ammunition come from. No one knows how to sign certain documents. Everyone is nodding upstairs. Pointing a finger up and saying that - you know, Evgeny Viktorovich, you have a difficult relationship over there. Keep pointing up and rolling their eyes. So you need to go apologize and confess. Then your fighters will receive ammunition.
To whom to apologize? Whom to obey? 140 million Russians, please tell me who I have to apologize to
so that my guys die twice less as they do today?!
Today, twice as many Wagner fighters die every day, and not only Wagner fighters, but also other military units, which we cannot cover because of the complete lack of shells, since we are not given what is in warehouses. Someone sits showing off and, according to their understanding, according to their mood, makes decisions whether to give us certain shells or not. At this time, a specific person dies. He lies in a trench. An enemy projectile flies on him. We cannot stop the enemy artillery because we have no means of destruction. And this particular person is torn off two legs or two arms. A particular wife, daughter, son or mother is deprived of their loved one. We put him in a zinc coffin. And we take him to the cemetery to bury. Is there really no conscience in order to stop fucking showing off like a fly on glass?
Requests are written every day according to the agreed regulations and transferred to the relevant authorities, but after that no one knows who should give an answer and where they should go. My efforts to receive the ammo are not enough.
These guys - they did not go to fight for Prigozhin. They went to fight for their country. And the whole advantage of Prigozhin is that they trust him and saw in him one of them. Of those who need to win this war.
Those who prevent us from winning this war are directly, absolutely directly working for the enemy. They help the enemy to break the back of Russia! We have a tradition that Russians die but don't give up. And the Russians are dying, only they are not dying for their home and their Motherland, but half of them are dying because some military functionaries do not want to tear their ass off and understand that these are not whims. You can not be capricious at a time when the country is in danger.
I do not blame anyone and do not want to point finger at anyone. I'm just saying - leave your whims. Leave your principles. And give me ammo. I'm not poking you in the nose with the fact that you sit for breakfast, lunch and dinner with gold dishes, and send your daughters, granddaughters and pets to rest in Dubai, not embarrassed of anything. At the moment when a Russian soldier dies at the front. I'm just asking - give me ammunition! »"
Those SouthFront videos are powerful evidence of either total incompetence or corruption in shorting Wagner of ammunition, just like you've been saying. SouthFront gives good reports consistently. Ukraine has long had ammunition deficiencies and now I see that is true of both sides. What a mess and terrible how it causes the death of so many young men.
Southfront - new to me, I think - looks worthwhile. However, a quick scan suggests that the quality of the Slavlands commentariat far exceeds that of Southfront where name-calling seems to be the default mode. Speaking of which, when Prigozhin refers to "did not call anyone obscene words " I think he is referring to videos 2,3 weeks back of his troops calling top figures at the MOD "faggots" - he must have been extremely displeased. The word probably got out: not helpful.
If there is a confrontation between "liberals" and "patriots", where is Putin? If Putin and those loyal to him lose, they will get the Hussein/Noriega/Khadafy treatment. Are the liberal doing what Putin wants? Anyone stealing or preventing production of artillery shells from the front is the enemy. This leads to the Putin has dementia theory.
All signs point to Putin declaring an escalation of the conflict on the 21st.
This time around, looks like 5D chessplayers > doomers.
Rolo, author a moderately 5D-leaning piece tomorrow in which you list aerial photos of troop concentrations and new field hospitals built in Belarus, gravel poured on some roads and tracks in Belarus the army will probably transit over, confirmed troop concentrations in Mariupol, the fact that the recent newly appointed commanders of the military districts have all been battle tested, so no paper-pushers left at that level of command, Russian declarations that aircraft and helicopters will be used more frequently from now on, drones reconnaissance flights deep behind AFU lines on the Dnepr, finally Lavrov publicly insulting Germany in a spiteful tone, all these factors enumerated in a 5Desque piece tomorrow can help you hedge your unlikely predictions of today.
It begins to look like these political tensions will never resolve themselves, and will slog along indefinitely in a boggy morass like the war itself. It begins to look like political rivalry will reign back in anyone with the competence to fix the situation.
It’s possible that this rather old by now squabble is purposed to take attention away from the fact that the Himars have destroyed the Ru near rear logistics capability to such a degree that they simply can’t reliably supply ammo as required. Iow it may be largely bogus, but I don’t know.
According to Strelkov one of the reasons Surovikin was sidelined was because he had a good working relationships with Wagner. He suspects that Wagner has been getting slowly strangled since Gerasimov was put directly over Surovikin but it's only now becoming terminal because while Surovikin was in charge Wagner built up a surplus.
Shell hunger really is a big problem, Russia produces lots of shells but its not enough to cover the needs of the Army and Wagner. The 5D rubes are right that Russian shell production is getting better and better but they dont factor in that modern SMO not wars require more shells than WW1 basically. Murz here says the DNR and LNR troops during autumn and winter were constantly thrown into attacks with barely any armor or artillery support.
https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/1431
It seems unlikely to me that Surovikin would be deliberately showing favouritism to Wagner seeing as how he is military himself. Presumably he just figured Wagner would make the best use of the shells due to having better mid and upper level coordination and management. Not to mention a higher threshold for sustaining losses due to having access to convicts.
But yeah if we were to draw 2 columns on a chalk board, one for what Russia is doing well and a needs improvement column I literally dont know at all what we could put in the doing well column. This is such a shit show and dumpster fire that is become straight painful to follow.
My personal head cannon for what might be happening now is that factions aligned in some way with the unfortunately useless and traitorous MoD officials around Shoigu arent simply butthurt about Wagner saying bad things about them but they actually want Wagner as bled dry and neutralised as possible. If a shameful and bad "peace" is around the corner and Putin is making an exit than instability could be incoming. Shoigu appears to have MoD locked down but the traitors and scum also need to ensure there arent other large groups of armed angry men that could make a play for power.
If we are about to see another Brest tier capitulation than Prigozhin and Wagner could present a huge problem after all. Kadyrov seems to be more loyal to Putin than Russia in general but he also has a good relationship with Prigozhin apparently. Putin is becoming a non entity but Kadyrov cant rally genuine popular support around himself amongst the non Muslims anymore than Shoigu. Prigozhin could though, and Wagner plus the Chechnyans would be a huge headache for crooks making a post Putin power play. So neutering Prigozhin is a priority.
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-update-218-major-war-confirmed
The 5D "any day now" perspective. We'll see who's right, Rolo! I find your lack of faith disturbing; trust in Darth Putin. Lol
I see the de-escalation as quite plausible. Wagner is an embarrassment. A PMC filled with criminals cannot be allowed to outperform the Russian Army. Only Wagner has gained any ground albeit slowly. I think Wagner smells the doublecross coming from the Liberals and defeat being pried from the jaws of victory. Prigozhin is trying to force the issue perhaps hoping to sway someone in Putin's inner circle or the man himself or even just to let the Russian public know who to blame. The mob could be useful down the road.
Good evening, Rollo and company.
Didn't know if you may have seen this. Got it from a Telegram channel, pro-Rus. Just thought I'd drop it in, JIC. Ths was either yesterday or today, methinks.
But I am incensed, to the Nth (!!)...This is utter and blatant BETRAYAL of the guys doing the MOUT, the most dangerous of all ops, being fucked-over so damn badly-(IF it's the case, seems legit, though) by petty politicking...I could go on, but I ain't. (insert appropriate Russian curse word here!)
Seems to me that they want to just grind Wagner into dust, maybe replace them with the "new entrepreneur" from Chechnya (?)...probably...
Probably want to keep Wagner doing OOC missions, far and away from mother Russia once they have completed their task of pinning down the Ukes long enough...then get him and his crew away from the country.
Yevgeny might be running the guys in the fertile new lands of the southern hemisphere, at least until the States collapse...
THAT is gonna be a real boon for Mercs from all over the world.
What the hell, I could use the Jew-stamps ; -)
Thanks for your insights, Rollo, have an awesomernhell day!
"Yevgeny Prigozhin:
« As they say, shit boils, blood spills, but the questions that I asked about ammunition, unfortunately, remain absolutely unresolved. This is the most serious problem. Moreover, there is ammunition in the country, statements have been made about this more than once. The industry has reached the required volumes. It gives what the country needs. Moreover, it gives with a margin.
I know warehouses, I know lot numbers, I know box numbers. I clearly understand where everything is. And I know that these ammunition is available. But I can not solve this problem despite all my acquaintances and connections. Everything sinks and sticks. No decisions are being made.
Generals, officers, in military headquarters, in various positions help in any way they can. They help with all their might. They try. Resist. Sometimes military laws are broken to give us the extra ammo we desperately need.
No one has any understanding of where certain limits come from. Where did the procedures for obtaining ammunition come from. No one knows how to sign certain documents. Everyone is nodding upstairs. Pointing a finger up and saying that - you know, Evgeny Viktorovich, you have a difficult relationship over there. Keep pointing up and rolling their eyes. So you need to go apologize and confess. Then your fighters will receive ammunition.
To whom to apologize? Whom to obey? 140 million Russians, please tell me who I have to apologize to
so that my guys die twice less as they do today?!
Today, twice as many Wagner fighters die every day, and not only Wagner fighters, but also other military units, which we cannot cover because of the complete lack of shells, since we are not given what is in warehouses. Someone sits showing off and, according to their understanding, according to their mood, makes decisions whether to give us certain shells or not. At this time, a specific person dies. He lies in a trench. An enemy projectile flies on him. We cannot stop the enemy artillery because we have no means of destruction. And this particular person is torn off two legs or two arms. A particular wife, daughter, son or mother is deprived of their loved one. We put him in a zinc coffin. And we take him to the cemetery to bury. Is there really no conscience in order to stop fucking showing off like a fly on glass?
Requests are written every day according to the agreed regulations and transferred to the relevant authorities, but after that no one knows who should give an answer and where they should go. My efforts to receive the ammo are not enough.
These guys - they did not go to fight for Prigozhin. They went to fight for their country. And the whole advantage of Prigozhin is that they trust him and saw in him one of them. Of those who need to win this war.
Those who prevent us from winning this war are directly, absolutely directly working for the enemy. They help the enemy to break the back of Russia! We have a tradition that Russians die but don't give up. And the Russians are dying, only they are not dying for their home and their Motherland, but half of them are dying because some military functionaries do not want to tear their ass off and understand that these are not whims. You can not be capricious at a time when the country is in danger.
I do not blame anyone and do not want to point finger at anyone. I'm just saying - leave your whims. Leave your principles. And give me ammo. I'm not poking you in the nose with the fact that you sit for breakfast, lunch and dinner with gold dishes, and send your daughters, granddaughters and pets to rest in Dubai, not embarrassed of anything. At the moment when a Russian soldier dies at the front. I'm just asking - give me ammunition! »"
Those SouthFront videos are powerful evidence of either total incompetence or corruption in shorting Wagner of ammunition, just like you've been saying. SouthFront gives good reports consistently. Ukraine has long had ammunition deficiencies and now I see that is true of both sides. What a mess and terrible how it causes the death of so many young men.
Southfront - new to me, I think - looks worthwhile. However, a quick scan suggests that the quality of the Slavlands commentariat far exceeds that of Southfront where name-calling seems to be the default mode. Speaking of which, when Prigozhin refers to "did not call anyone obscene words " I think he is referring to videos 2,3 weeks back of his troops calling top figures at the MOD "faggots" - he must have been extremely displeased. The word probably got out: not helpful.
If there is a confrontation between "liberals" and "patriots", where is Putin? If Putin and those loyal to him lose, they will get the Hussein/Noriega/Khadafy treatment. Are the liberal doing what Putin wants? Anyone stealing or preventing production of artillery shells from the front is the enemy. This leads to the Putin has dementia theory.
China with the support of Italy will be announcing a "Peace Plan". https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-plans-peace-speech-ukraine-invasion-anniversary-italy-min-says-2023-02-17/
All signs point to Putin declaring an escalation of the conflict on the 21st.
This time around, looks like 5D chessplayers > doomers.
Rolo, author a moderately 5D-leaning piece tomorrow in which you list aerial photos of troop concentrations and new field hospitals built in Belarus, gravel poured on some roads and tracks in Belarus the army will probably transit over, confirmed troop concentrations in Mariupol, the fact that the recent newly appointed commanders of the military districts have all been battle tested, so no paper-pushers left at that level of command, Russian declarations that aircraft and helicopters will be used more frequently from now on, drones reconnaissance flights deep behind AFU lines on the Dnepr, finally Lavrov publicly insulting Germany in a spiteful tone, all these factors enumerated in a 5Desque piece tomorrow can help you hedge your unlikely predictions of today.
It begins to look like these political tensions will never resolve themselves, and will slog along indefinitely in a boggy morass like the war itself. It begins to look like political rivalry will reign back in anyone with the competence to fix the situation.
It’s possible that this rather old by now squabble is purposed to take attention away from the fact that the Himars have destroyed the Ru near rear logistics capability to such a degree that they simply can’t reliably supply ammo as required. Iow it may be largely bogus, but I don’t know.
Can this be true? If so you are vindicated again, I'm hoping this is western disinfo but I fear it's not
https://t.me/EnjoyTheD/7509
If the shell shortage is indeed serious, why do you think does Wagner conduct offensive operations without adequate artillery support?
Wouldn't be easy for Wagner to say, we'd like to conduct operations as planned, but unfortunately are unable to do so without more shells?