According to Strelkov one of the reasons Surovikin was sidelined was because he had a good working relationships with Wagner. He suspects that Wagner has been getting slowly strangled since Gerasimov was put directly over Surovikin but it's only now becoming terminal because while Surovikin was in charge Wagner built up a surplus.
Shell hunger really is a big problem, Russia produces lots of shells but its not enough to cover the needs of the Army and Wagner. The 5D rubes are right that Russian shell production is getting better and better but they dont factor in that modern SMO not wars require more shells than WW1 basically. Murz here says the DNR and LNR troops during autumn and winter were constantly thrown into attacks with barely any armor or artillery support.
It seems unlikely to me that Surovikin would be deliberately showing favouritism to Wagner seeing as how he is military himself. Presumably he just figured Wagner would make the best use of the shells due to having better mid and upper level coordination and management. Not to mention a higher threshold for sustaining losses due to having access to convicts.
But yeah if we were to draw 2 columns on a chalk board, one for what Russia is doing well and a needs improvement column I literally dont know at all what we could put in the doing well column. This is such a shit show and dumpster fire that is become straight painful to follow.
My personal head cannon for what might be happening now is that factions aligned in some way with the unfortunately useless and traitorous MoD officials around Shoigu arent simply butthurt about Wagner saying bad things about them but they actually want Wagner as bled dry and neutralised as possible. If a shameful and bad "peace" is around the corner and Putin is making an exit than instability could be incoming. Shoigu appears to have MoD locked down but the traitors and scum also need to ensure there arent other large groups of armed angry men that could make a play for power.
If we are about to see another Brest tier capitulation than Prigozhin and Wagner could present a huge problem after all. Kadyrov seems to be more loyal to Putin than Russia in general but he also has a good relationship with Prigozhin apparently. Putin is becoming a non entity but Kadyrov cant rally genuine popular support around himself amongst the non Muslims anymore than Shoigu. Prigozhin could though, and Wagner plus the Chechnyans would be a huge headache for crooks making a post Putin power play. So neutering Prigozhin is a priority.
The only problem Wagner can present is destroying public trust in United Russia. Prighozin is a mouth piece, Wagner can withdraw from the conflict if they truly get squeezed.
Kadyrov is actually extremely dangerous. He is dangerous because he actually cares. It's not all business and dollars for him. So in an event of the collapse of the Putin regime he could easily completely sour on the whole being part of Russia thing. Very messy business.
Shoigu has a zero chance of being fired because nobody in Russian government gives a shit about the actual war performance, they don't even call it a war. They see the military as just some some tool, like a cork screw on a swiss knife. If it doesn't perform they'll try some a different attachment, The Jewish Cock Suckler not excluded.
Overall the situation is catastrophic and there's no way out.
The hilarious part is even the west understands it. All the recent news has been these puppets saying how they're unsure whether removing Putin will actually allow a puppet to come in. Basically showing fear of the Russians themselves. I hope their fears are justified. Kind of sad that a bunch of degenerate satanists could basically outmaneuver completely "The Third Rome". What a tragedy.
Shoigu is a crook and a traitor, he has 0 military experience and is just put in their as a watchdog and to keep the Generals in check. His daughter also has the same traits since she is getting millions of rubles for ' construction purposes' meanwhile Russian moblized couldn't even get proper gear. There maybe even some back deal going on right now since the British already to the Ukrainians to 'shoot more accurate' in order to save shells. If both sides don't supply shells this conflict will loose its fire so to speak. In the end this whole war might just be a big theatre because i always found it odd it immediatly started after all the COVID bullshit stopped.
The 5D "any day now" perspective. We'll see who's right, Rolo! I find your lack of faith disturbing; trust in Darth Putin. Lol
I see the de-escalation as quite plausible. Wagner is an embarrassment. A PMC filled with criminals cannot be allowed to outperform the Russian Army. Only Wagner has gained any ground albeit slowly. I think Wagner smells the doublecross coming from the Liberals and defeat being pried from the jaws of victory. Prigozhin is trying to force the issue perhaps hoping to sway someone in Putin's inner circle or the man himself or even just to let the Russian public know who to blame. The mob could be useful down the road.
Didn't know if you may have seen this. Got it from a Telegram channel, pro-Rus. Just thought I'd drop it in, JIC. Ths was either yesterday or today, methinks.
But I am incensed, to the Nth (!!)...This is utter and blatant BETRAYAL of the guys doing the MOUT, the most dangerous of all ops, being fucked-over so damn badly-(IF it's the case, seems legit, though) by petty politicking...I could go on, but I ain't. (insert appropriate Russian curse word here!)
Seems to me that they want to just grind Wagner into dust, maybe replace them with the "new entrepreneur" from Chechnya (?)...probably...
Probably want to keep Wagner doing OOC missions, far and away from mother Russia once they have completed their task of pinning down the Ukes long enough...then get him and his crew away from the country.
Yevgeny might be running the guys in the fertile new lands of the southern hemisphere, at least until the States collapse...
THAT is gonna be a real boon for Mercs from all over the world.
What the hell, I could use the Jew-stamps ; -)
Thanks for your insights, Rollo, have an awesomernhell day!
"Yevgeny Prigozhin:
« As they say, shit boils, blood spills, but the questions that I asked about ammunition, unfortunately, remain absolutely unresolved. This is the most serious problem. Moreover, there is ammunition in the country, statements have been made about this more than once. The industry has reached the required volumes. It gives what the country needs. Moreover, it gives with a margin.
I know warehouses, I know lot numbers, I know box numbers. I clearly understand where everything is. And I know that these ammunition is available. But I can not solve this problem despite all my acquaintances and connections. Everything sinks and sticks. No decisions are being made.
Generals, officers, in military headquarters, in various positions help in any way they can. They help with all their might. They try. Resist. Sometimes military laws are broken to give us the extra ammo we desperately need.
No one has any understanding of where certain limits come from. Where did the procedures for obtaining ammunition come from. No one knows how to sign certain documents. Everyone is nodding upstairs. Pointing a finger up and saying that - you know, Evgeny Viktorovich, you have a difficult relationship over there. Keep pointing up and rolling their eyes. So you need to go apologize and confess. Then your fighters will receive ammunition.
To whom to apologize? Whom to obey? 140 million Russians, please tell me who I have to apologize to
so that my guys die twice less as they do today?!
Today, twice as many Wagner fighters die every day, and not only Wagner fighters, but also other military units, which we cannot cover because of the complete lack of shells, since we are not given what is in warehouses. Someone sits showing off and, according to their understanding, according to their mood, makes decisions whether to give us certain shells or not. At this time, a specific person dies. He lies in a trench. An enemy projectile flies on him. We cannot stop the enemy artillery because we have no means of destruction. And this particular person is torn off two legs or two arms. A particular wife, daughter, son or mother is deprived of their loved one. We put him in a zinc coffin. And we take him to the cemetery to bury. Is there really no conscience in order to stop fucking showing off like a fly on glass?
Requests are written every day according to the agreed regulations and transferred to the relevant authorities, but after that no one knows who should give an answer and where they should go. My efforts to receive the ammo are not enough.
These guys - they did not go to fight for Prigozhin. They went to fight for their country. And the whole advantage of Prigozhin is that they trust him and saw in him one of them. Of those who need to win this war.
Those who prevent us from winning this war are directly, absolutely directly working for the enemy. They help the enemy to break the back of Russia! We have a tradition that Russians die but don't give up. And the Russians are dying, only they are not dying for their home and their Motherland, but half of them are dying because some military functionaries do not want to tear their ass off and understand that these are not whims. You can not be capricious at a time when the country is in danger.
I do not blame anyone and do not want to point finger at anyone. I'm just saying - leave your whims. Leave your principles. And give me ammo. I'm not poking you in the nose with the fact that you sit for breakfast, lunch and dinner with gold dishes, and send your daughters, granddaughters and pets to rest in Dubai, not embarrassed of anything. At the moment when a Russian soldier dies at the front. I'm just asking - give me ammunition! »"
Those SouthFront videos are powerful evidence of either total incompetence or corruption in shorting Wagner of ammunition, just like you've been saying. SouthFront gives good reports consistently. Ukraine has long had ammunition deficiencies and now I see that is true of both sides. What a mess and terrible how it causes the death of so many young men.
Southfront - new to me, I think - looks worthwhile. However, a quick scan suggests that the quality of the Slavlands commentariat far exceeds that of Southfront where name-calling seems to be the default mode. Speaking of which, when Prigozhin refers to "did not call anyone obscene words " I think he is referring to videos 2,3 weeks back of his troops calling top figures at the MOD "faggots" - he must have been extremely displeased. The word probably got out: not helpful.
If there is a confrontation between "liberals" and "patriots", where is Putin? If Putin and those loyal to him lose, they will get the Hussein/Noriega/Khadafy treatment. Are the liberal doing what Putin wants? Anyone stealing or preventing production of artillery shells from the front is the enemy. This leads to the Putin has dementia theory.
Talking about the need for total mobilization of industry is like beating a dead horse at this point but its true. In order to have enough shells for everyone you need to re-purpose factories and build new ones now. The SMO despite not being a war eats shells at a higher rate than most wars in recent memory. But there is absolutely no reason to expect any mobilization of industry is in the works. The central bank will never release the funds and Oligarchs will never be forced to re-purpose factories against their will. Thats just not how Russia works apparently.
I have been wondering about the possibility that China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iran are secretly funding Russia's war effort. All the missile barrages are super expensive. It is to these other countries advantage that Russia wins. What do you think?
The question is, is there a real nationwide shell shortage, or are resources being selectively withheld from a party that is becoming dangerously popular because it knows how to use them to better effect than its rivals? (Shakespeare's Othello comes to mind, but maybe the Brothers Karamazov is a more appropriate paradigm, of how common and destructive a feature of human nature is wreaking misfortune on ones rivals.)
If the latter, pouring money into industry is only likely to worsen the consequences of political envy by enriching some rival industrial oligarch or other, as you mention. As with so many issues, you have to look closely at the actual problem to tell whether a proposed remedy would make things better or worse.
The idiot Russians were always going to be on the losing side in this " war " it was obvious from day 1 . After a week some on youtube ( Duran , Gonzalo Lira eg . ) were saying the fighting was all over the Ukrainian army was surrounded and all the air defences were taken out . Where are we a year later ? No different really just death and destruction on a local basis with no big defining battles having taken place. The number of times the Duran guy has said the word Bak fucking mud over the past 6 months is off the scale and it`s always about to be taken by the Russians . In 6 months Putin will be gone and a deal will be struck with the West ( who of course will remain untouched ) . The US / UK ( the rest have zero say in NATO ) have said time and again that they are not giving up till it`s won .
The US are the main winners in this conflict, they created a Vietnam/Afghanistan situation right on Russias doorstep which unless the Russians use nukes they can't win anytime soon. This conflict can go on for years like it has in the Don Bass since 2014 but on a larger scale. Russia is afraid to sustain futher casualties and is reluctant to send in conscripts and mobilised which are now mainly used for holding the line, the wagner prisoners are the attacking force which they don't mind losing a few undersirables and it free's up prison space. But once the Prisoners are gone i don;t see the Russians attacking with the same zeal. As the recent Russian debacle at Vuhledar shows the Ukrainians have prepared layered defensive with minefields ALL along the front now, the element of suprise the Russians enjoying in the beginning is lost and its now a ww1 grind with little room for manouvre warfare. This is excactly what the US wants, to drain Russian people so they won't ever be able to pull this off again. The goal is to weaken Russia to such and extent that internal rebellion and revolutions will occur. Then they hope to break up Russia into smaller republic's that can be played off against each other and then they want to Focus on China which is another wildcard in this fight. But the bottomline Ukraine, the EU and Russia are not winning anything in the conflict.
Putin is either a puppet who is kept in the dark and just has to peform the role of the president or just a straight out cuck. He does seem more intelligent and smarter then any other western president tho. Before the invasion started, Putin schooled his spy chief who acted very incompetent and i believe that Russia has too many corrupt and incompetent officials. Same in the Army General staff. Say what you want about Ukraine atleast they have 1 command system and everyone is working for Ukrainian interests.
Will you at least be classy enough to admit that by not launching sustained attacks on Ukrainian infastructure, providing fuel and money to Ukraine, not mobilizing the armed forces or industry, and generally placing the needs and wants of the pro Western liberals ahead of the army that actually it was "Russians" who played the staring role in securing Zog victory?
Ill give the Ukrainians their due for being very stubborn defenders but it always strikes me as really cringe when commentators act like its Ukraine and the US taking on a determined and resolute but dumb Russia. Lets face it, without help at the highest levels in Russia you wouldn't be here gloating about Russian idiots.
All signs point to Putin declaring an escalation of the conflict on the 21st.
This time around, looks like 5D chessplayers > doomers.
Rolo, author a moderately 5D-leaning piece tomorrow in which you list aerial photos of troop concentrations and new field hospitals built in Belarus, gravel poured on some roads and tracks in Belarus the army will probably transit over, confirmed troop concentrations in Mariupol, the fact that the recent newly appointed commanders of the military districts have all been battle tested, so no paper-pushers left at that level of command, Russian declarations that aircraft and helicopters will be used more frequently from now on, drones reconnaissance flights deep behind AFU lines on the Dnepr, finally Lavrov publicly insulting Germany in a spiteful tone, all these factors enumerated in a 5Desque piece tomorrow can help you hedge your unlikely predictions of today.
I wrote this while I was arguing somewhere else with Simplicius76 how to best invade the West side of the Dnepr. 5D-land is a great spot to be, a sweet fantasy to indulge. I wonder how do you manage to sternly keep yourself in that dour and gloomy doomerism of yours.
It begins to look like these political tensions will never resolve themselves, and will slog along indefinitely in a boggy morass like the war itself. It begins to look like political rivalry will reign back in anyone with the competence to fix the situation.
It’s possible that this rather old by now squabble is purposed to take attention away from the fact that the Himars have destroyed the Ru near rear logistics capability to such a degree that they simply can’t reliably supply ammo as required. Iow it may be largely bogus, but I don’t know.
Russian artillery fire is not accurate, go watch some video's about the war and you notice wherever Russian artillery fires there are huge moonscapes. Ukrainian artillery fire is generally more accurate because of better western Howitzers and targetting computers and thus generally require less shells to hit their target. Both sides seem to be running low on ammo which i find very suspect to say the least.
According to Strelkov one of the reasons Surovikin was sidelined was because he had a good working relationships with Wagner. He suspects that Wagner has been getting slowly strangled since Gerasimov was put directly over Surovikin but it's only now becoming terminal because while Surovikin was in charge Wagner built up a surplus.
Shell hunger really is a big problem, Russia produces lots of shells but its not enough to cover the needs of the Army and Wagner. The 5D rubes are right that Russian shell production is getting better and better but they dont factor in that modern SMO not wars require more shells than WW1 basically. Murz here says the DNR and LNR troops during autumn and winter were constantly thrown into attacks with barely any armor or artillery support.
https://t.me/wehearfromyanina/1431
It seems unlikely to me that Surovikin would be deliberately showing favouritism to Wagner seeing as how he is military himself. Presumably he just figured Wagner would make the best use of the shells due to having better mid and upper level coordination and management. Not to mention a higher threshold for sustaining losses due to having access to convicts.
But yeah if we were to draw 2 columns on a chalk board, one for what Russia is doing well and a needs improvement column I literally dont know at all what we could put in the doing well column. This is such a shit show and dumpster fire that is become straight painful to follow.
My personal head cannon for what might be happening now is that factions aligned in some way with the unfortunately useless and traitorous MoD officials around Shoigu arent simply butthurt about Wagner saying bad things about them but they actually want Wagner as bled dry and neutralised as possible. If a shameful and bad "peace" is around the corner and Putin is making an exit than instability could be incoming. Shoigu appears to have MoD locked down but the traitors and scum also need to ensure there arent other large groups of armed angry men that could make a play for power.
If we are about to see another Brest tier capitulation than Prigozhin and Wagner could present a huge problem after all. Kadyrov seems to be more loyal to Putin than Russia in general but he also has a good relationship with Prigozhin apparently. Putin is becoming a non entity but Kadyrov cant rally genuine popular support around himself amongst the non Muslims anymore than Shoigu. Prigozhin could though, and Wagner plus the Chechnyans would be a huge headache for crooks making a post Putin power play. So neutering Prigozhin is a priority.
The only problem Wagner can present is destroying public trust in United Russia. Prighozin is a mouth piece, Wagner can withdraw from the conflict if they truly get squeezed.
Kadyrov is actually extremely dangerous. He is dangerous because he actually cares. It's not all business and dollars for him. So in an event of the collapse of the Putin regime he could easily completely sour on the whole being part of Russia thing. Very messy business.
Shoigu has a zero chance of being fired because nobody in Russian government gives a shit about the actual war performance, they don't even call it a war. They see the military as just some some tool, like a cork screw on a swiss knife. If it doesn't perform they'll try some a different attachment, The Jewish Cock Suckler not excluded.
Overall the situation is catastrophic and there's no way out.
The hilarious part is even the west understands it. All the recent news has been these puppets saying how they're unsure whether removing Putin will actually allow a puppet to come in. Basically showing fear of the Russians themselves. I hope their fears are justified. Kind of sad that a bunch of degenerate satanists could basically outmaneuver completely "The Third Rome". What a tragedy.
Shoigu is a crook and a traitor, he has 0 military experience and is just put in their as a watchdog and to keep the Generals in check. His daughter also has the same traits since she is getting millions of rubles for ' construction purposes' meanwhile Russian moblized couldn't even get proper gear. There maybe even some back deal going on right now since the British already to the Ukrainians to 'shoot more accurate' in order to save shells. If both sides don't supply shells this conflict will loose its fire so to speak. In the end this whole war might just be a big theatre because i always found it odd it immediatly started after all the COVID bullshit stopped.
" In the end this whole war might just be a big theatre because i always found it odd it immediatly started after all the COVID bullshit stopped. "
Bingo , we have a winner !
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/sitrep-update-218-major-war-confirmed
The 5D "any day now" perspective. We'll see who's right, Rolo! I find your lack of faith disturbing; trust in Darth Putin. Lol
I see the de-escalation as quite plausible. Wagner is an embarrassment. A PMC filled with criminals cannot be allowed to outperform the Russian Army. Only Wagner has gained any ground albeit slowly. I think Wagner smells the doublecross coming from the Liberals and defeat being pried from the jaws of victory. Prigozhin is trying to force the issue perhaps hoping to sway someone in Putin's inner circle or the man himself or even just to let the Russian public know who to blame. The mob could be useful down the road.
Good evening, Rollo and company.
Didn't know if you may have seen this. Got it from a Telegram channel, pro-Rus. Just thought I'd drop it in, JIC. Ths was either yesterday or today, methinks.
But I am incensed, to the Nth (!!)...This is utter and blatant BETRAYAL of the guys doing the MOUT, the most dangerous of all ops, being fucked-over so damn badly-(IF it's the case, seems legit, though) by petty politicking...I could go on, but I ain't. (insert appropriate Russian curse word here!)
Seems to me that they want to just grind Wagner into dust, maybe replace them with the "new entrepreneur" from Chechnya (?)...probably...
Probably want to keep Wagner doing OOC missions, far and away from mother Russia once they have completed their task of pinning down the Ukes long enough...then get him and his crew away from the country.
Yevgeny might be running the guys in the fertile new lands of the southern hemisphere, at least until the States collapse...
THAT is gonna be a real boon for Mercs from all over the world.
What the hell, I could use the Jew-stamps ; -)
Thanks for your insights, Rollo, have an awesomernhell day!
"Yevgeny Prigozhin:
« As they say, shit boils, blood spills, but the questions that I asked about ammunition, unfortunately, remain absolutely unresolved. This is the most serious problem. Moreover, there is ammunition in the country, statements have been made about this more than once. The industry has reached the required volumes. It gives what the country needs. Moreover, it gives with a margin.
I know warehouses, I know lot numbers, I know box numbers. I clearly understand where everything is. And I know that these ammunition is available. But I can not solve this problem despite all my acquaintances and connections. Everything sinks and sticks. No decisions are being made.
Generals, officers, in military headquarters, in various positions help in any way they can. They help with all their might. They try. Resist. Sometimes military laws are broken to give us the extra ammo we desperately need.
No one has any understanding of where certain limits come from. Where did the procedures for obtaining ammunition come from. No one knows how to sign certain documents. Everyone is nodding upstairs. Pointing a finger up and saying that - you know, Evgeny Viktorovich, you have a difficult relationship over there. Keep pointing up and rolling their eyes. So you need to go apologize and confess. Then your fighters will receive ammunition.
To whom to apologize? Whom to obey? 140 million Russians, please tell me who I have to apologize to
so that my guys die twice less as they do today?!
Today, twice as many Wagner fighters die every day, and not only Wagner fighters, but also other military units, which we cannot cover because of the complete lack of shells, since we are not given what is in warehouses. Someone sits showing off and, according to their understanding, according to their mood, makes decisions whether to give us certain shells or not. At this time, a specific person dies. He lies in a trench. An enemy projectile flies on him. We cannot stop the enemy artillery because we have no means of destruction. And this particular person is torn off two legs or two arms. A particular wife, daughter, son or mother is deprived of their loved one. We put him in a zinc coffin. And we take him to the cemetery to bury. Is there really no conscience in order to stop fucking showing off like a fly on glass?
Requests are written every day according to the agreed regulations and transferred to the relevant authorities, but after that no one knows who should give an answer and where they should go. My efforts to receive the ammo are not enough.
These guys - they did not go to fight for Prigozhin. They went to fight for their country. And the whole advantage of Prigozhin is that they trust him and saw in him one of them. Of those who need to win this war.
Those who prevent us from winning this war are directly, absolutely directly working for the enemy. They help the enemy to break the back of Russia! We have a tradition that Russians die but don't give up. And the Russians are dying, only they are not dying for their home and their Motherland, but half of them are dying because some military functionaries do not want to tear their ass off and understand that these are not whims. You can not be capricious at a time when the country is in danger.
I do not blame anyone and do not want to point finger at anyone. I'm just saying - leave your whims. Leave your principles. And give me ammo. I'm not poking you in the nose with the fact that you sit for breakfast, lunch and dinner with gold dishes, and send your daughters, granddaughters and pets to rest in Dubai, not embarrassed of anything. At the moment when a Russian soldier dies at the front. I'm just asking - give me ammunition! »"
Those SouthFront videos are powerful evidence of either total incompetence or corruption in shorting Wagner of ammunition, just like you've been saying. SouthFront gives good reports consistently. Ukraine has long had ammunition deficiencies and now I see that is true of both sides. What a mess and terrible how it causes the death of so many young men.
Southfront - new to me, I think - looks worthwhile. However, a quick scan suggests that the quality of the Slavlands commentariat far exceeds that of Southfront where name-calling seems to be the default mode. Speaking of which, when Prigozhin refers to "did not call anyone obscene words " I think he is referring to videos 2,3 weeks back of his troops calling top figures at the MOD "faggots" - he must have been extremely displeased. The word probably got out: not helpful.
If there is a confrontation between "liberals" and "patriots", where is Putin? If Putin and those loyal to him lose, they will get the Hussein/Noriega/Khadafy treatment. Are the liberal doing what Putin wants? Anyone stealing or preventing production of artillery shells from the front is the enemy. This leads to the Putin has dementia theory.
Talking about the need for total mobilization of industry is like beating a dead horse at this point but its true. In order to have enough shells for everyone you need to re-purpose factories and build new ones now. The SMO despite not being a war eats shells at a higher rate than most wars in recent memory. But there is absolutely no reason to expect any mobilization of industry is in the works. The central bank will never release the funds and Oligarchs will never be forced to re-purpose factories against their will. Thats just not how Russia works apparently.
I have been wondering about the possibility that China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iran are secretly funding Russia's war effort. All the missile barrages are super expensive. It is to these other countries advantage that Russia wins. What do you think?
I dont think so. If the US found out Saudi Arabia and India would be toast.
The question is, is there a real nationwide shell shortage, or are resources being selectively withheld from a party that is becoming dangerously popular because it knows how to use them to better effect than its rivals? (Shakespeare's Othello comes to mind, but maybe the Brothers Karamazov is a more appropriate paradigm, of how common and destructive a feature of human nature is wreaking misfortune on ones rivals.)
If the latter, pouring money into industry is only likely to worsen the consequences of political envy by enriching some rival industrial oligarch or other, as you mention. As with so many issues, you have to look closely at the actual problem to tell whether a proposed remedy would make things better or worse.
The idiot Russians were always going to be on the losing side in this " war " it was obvious from day 1 . After a week some on youtube ( Duran , Gonzalo Lira eg . ) were saying the fighting was all over the Ukrainian army was surrounded and all the air defences were taken out . Where are we a year later ? No different really just death and destruction on a local basis with no big defining battles having taken place. The number of times the Duran guy has said the word Bak fucking mud over the past 6 months is off the scale and it`s always about to be taken by the Russians . In 6 months Putin will be gone and a deal will be struck with the West ( who of course will remain untouched ) . The US / UK ( the rest have zero say in NATO ) have said time and again that they are not giving up till it`s won .
The US are the main winners in this conflict, they created a Vietnam/Afghanistan situation right on Russias doorstep which unless the Russians use nukes they can't win anytime soon. This conflict can go on for years like it has in the Don Bass since 2014 but on a larger scale. Russia is afraid to sustain futher casualties and is reluctant to send in conscripts and mobilised which are now mainly used for holding the line, the wagner prisoners are the attacking force which they don't mind losing a few undersirables and it free's up prison space. But once the Prisoners are gone i don;t see the Russians attacking with the same zeal. As the recent Russian debacle at Vuhledar shows the Ukrainians have prepared layered defensive with minefields ALL along the front now, the element of suprise the Russians enjoying in the beginning is lost and its now a ww1 grind with little room for manouvre warfare. This is excactly what the US wants, to drain Russian people so they won't ever be able to pull this off again. The goal is to weaken Russia to such and extent that internal rebellion and revolutions will occur. Then they hope to break up Russia into smaller republic's that can be played off against each other and then they want to Focus on China which is another wildcard in this fight. But the bottomline Ukraine, the EU and Russia are not winning anything in the conflict.
Putin is either a puppet who is kept in the dark and just has to peform the role of the president or just a straight out cuck. He does seem more intelligent and smarter then any other western president tho. Before the invasion started, Putin schooled his spy chief who acted very incompetent and i believe that Russia has too many corrupt and incompetent officials. Same in the Army General staff. Say what you want about Ukraine atleast they have 1 command system and everyone is working for Ukrainian interests.
Will you at least be classy enough to admit that by not launching sustained attacks on Ukrainian infastructure, providing fuel and money to Ukraine, not mobilizing the armed forces or industry, and generally placing the needs and wants of the pro Western liberals ahead of the army that actually it was "Russians" who played the staring role in securing Zog victory?
Ill give the Ukrainians their due for being very stubborn defenders but it always strikes me as really cringe when commentators act like its Ukraine and the US taking on a determined and resolute but dumb Russia. Lets face it, without help at the highest levels in Russia you wouldn't be here gloating about Russian idiots.
China with the support of Italy will be announcing a "Peace Plan". https://www.reuters.com/world/chinas-xi-plans-peace-speech-ukraine-invasion-anniversary-italy-min-says-2023-02-17/
All signs point to Putin declaring an escalation of the conflict on the 21st.
This time around, looks like 5D chessplayers > doomers.
Rolo, author a moderately 5D-leaning piece tomorrow in which you list aerial photos of troop concentrations and new field hospitals built in Belarus, gravel poured on some roads and tracks in Belarus the army will probably transit over, confirmed troop concentrations in Mariupol, the fact that the recent newly appointed commanders of the military districts have all been battle tested, so no paper-pushers left at that level of command, Russian declarations that aircraft and helicopters will be used more frequently from now on, drones reconnaissance flights deep behind AFU lines on the Dnepr, finally Lavrov publicly insulting Germany in a spiteful tone, all these factors enumerated in a 5Desque piece tomorrow can help you hedge your unlikely predictions of today.
Well, well, well.
I wrote this while I was arguing somewhere else with Simplicius76 how to best invade the West side of the Dnepr. 5D-land is a great spot to be, a sweet fantasy to indulge. I wonder how do you manage to sternly keep yourself in that dour and gloomy doomerism of yours.
It begins to look like these political tensions will never resolve themselves, and will slog along indefinitely in a boggy morass like the war itself. It begins to look like political rivalry will reign back in anyone with the competence to fix the situation.
It’s possible that this rather old by now squabble is purposed to take attention away from the fact that the Himars have destroyed the Ru near rear logistics capability to such a degree that they simply can’t reliably supply ammo as required. Iow it may be largely bogus, but I don’t know.
Can this be true? If so you are vindicated again, I'm hoping this is western disinfo but I fear it's not
https://t.me/EnjoyTheD/7509
It is true. I was thinking of writing about it, but what would i even say?
They're ALL LIKE THIS.
ALL THE "RUSSIAN ELITE" ARE LIKE THIS.
THEY ALL HAVE GAY MILLENNIAL KIDS WITH FLATS IN LONDON
FFS.
They want them western trinket and toys
https://www.slobodenpecat.mk/en/foto-lavrov-e-protiv-omrazeniot-zapad-ama-ima-ajfon-i-nosi-maichka-od-njujorshki-dizajner-biseksualec/?ref=upstract.com
If the shell shortage is indeed serious, why do you think does Wagner conduct offensive operations without adequate artillery support?
Wouldn't be easy for Wagner to say, we'd like to conduct operations as planned, but unfortunately are unable to do so without more shells?
I thought that lack of ammunition was a much bigger problem for Ukraine than for Russia. Or do I have it wrong?
for now, Ukraine is suffering more.
but Russia isn't using theirs wisely.
Cuz their job's to die to keep up morale & I agree on Karlin being a sperg.
Russian artillery fire is not accurate, go watch some video's about the war and you notice wherever Russian artillery fires there are huge moonscapes. Ukrainian artillery fire is generally more accurate because of better western Howitzers and targetting computers and thus generally require less shells to hit their target. Both sides seem to be running low on ammo which i find very suspect to say the least.