Stormcrow Prigozhin Sinks "Two More Weeks" 5D Narrative

2 more years

I have a challenge for my readers. You’ve been reading and learning and researching along with me for many months now. You know the doomer side of the argument, and, actually, judging from the caliber of comments on my blog, you clearly know far more about what is happening in Russia and Ukraine than many of the self-styled 5D experts.

I’d like to force a conversation with the 5D people going forward, somehow.

Let’s see what they have to say about this latest “doomer” forecast by the man who has been in charge of the most active front of this war so far. The CEO of Wagner, Evgeniy Prigozhin, has declared that it would take at least several more years to defeat Ukraine the way things are going now.

The Guardian:

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner mercenary group, has said it could take two years for Russia to fully control the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in eastern Ukraine, two regions whose capture Moscow has stated as a key goal of the war.

In a video published on Friday with the Russian military blogger Semyon Pegov, reported by Reuters, Prigozhin said:

As far as I understand, we need to close off the Donetsk and Luhansk republics and in principle that will suit everyone for now.

That could take one and a half to two years, he said.

…

“If we have to get to the Dnipro, then it will take about three years,” Prigozhin added, referring to a larger area that would extend to the vast Dnipro River that runs roughly north to south, bisecting Ukraine.

Prigozhin does not speak for the Russian military but his comments provide a rare insight into Russian expectations of the conflict, from the head of a group at the centre of some of its fiercest fighting.

So much for the “two more weeks” narrative.

They didn’t believe Strelkov when he spoke out. They ignored Rolo when he translated what Strelkov said and backed him up. Now they will, presumably, pretend to not understand the implications of what Prigozhin is saying.

But we should think about the implications of this admission. Wasn’t Bakhmut supposed to be the beginning of the end? The last stronghold before a straight push to the Dniepr?

And now Prigozhin himself is telling you that this is not the case!

But do you know who else has been telling you that? Why, Rolo, of course.

Anyways, seeing as Russia’s military doesn’t seem to have the resources or the coordination to pull something on this level off, they appear to be acting busy with these smaller, localized actions. But, even if Bakhmut is taken, nothing changes. Of what strategic use is this smoldering ruin of a town? Yes, the Ukrainians have to retreat to the next defensive line, but what of it? So they retreat. What then?

Well, someone’s prestige increases in Moscow and their odds of dying in a helicopter crash either increase or decrease depending on the calculation that we, or more importantly, they, are using. And that is why Bakhmut or Ugledar or some other hitherto unknown village in the south is so important, suddenly.

What? Why are you people mad at me?

You like to say that Russia is the Third Rome all the time and then you act all aghast when I talk about the Byzantine politics that govern this embattled Empire.

Grow the fuck up.

Prigozhin is literally confirming what I have been saying. And how did I know that Bakhmut wouldn’t be strategically important? Well, because I have access to something called Google Maps.

You see Bakhmut there? Do you see what lies to the West of it? Do you see a straight line to the river? My lying eyes seem to be showing me many Bakhmuts along the way. So where did these clowns get the idea that Bakhmut is the lynch-pin on which the entire fate of the war rested? Did Qanon tell them so?

But there are even more implications to be drawn from Prigozhin’s gloomy forecast. First and foremost, there appears to be no mention or implied expectation of a large, decisive Russian offensive. Does this mean that the build-up in Belarus is, indeed, a fake-out?

Hard to say. But I don’t think that Progozhin is part of the inner in-the-know circle, and as such, could conceivably simply be kept out of the loop. Especially considering his running beef with the MoD. His omission of any large scale offensive and its potential effects on the battlefield is worth keeping in mind, though.

**

And now, we have confirmation from Prigozhin himself that his access to prisoner populations has been cut off. That means that the tactics used to take Soledar, which is so tiny as to not even be on the map I provided above, won’t be available to Wagner going forward.

Now, please, don’t read me wrong and interpret what I am saying as a critique of Wagner. They are everything that the 5Ders would want Russia to actually be, and yet, they mostly ignore the existence of Wagner because they appear to be embarrassed by the tactics that Wagner uses and the unabashed nationalist rhetoric that the group espouses.

This is because, unlike this blog, 5Ders get their talking points from official Russian propaganda. And official Russian propaganda has been ignoring the existence of Wagner for months now. At last, we have confirmation of the media blackout.

Kapital:

Participants in political talk shows on Russian TV were ordered not to mention the Wagner PMC and its creator, Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Sergey Markov, a political scientist close to the Kremlin, told The New York Times about this . According to him, the instruction appeared in the last few weeks. “It was a demand from the management and not only to me. They apparently do not want to involve him in politics, because he is so unpredictable – they are a little afraid of him,” Markov said. At the same time, he did not specify who specifically demanded not to mention Prigozhin.

At the same time, the Gray zone telegram channel published a manual of the Ministry of Defense for the media and bloggers, which states that when covering hostilities in the Donetsk direction (including Bakhmut), “it is necessary to completely abandon the mention of Wagner PMC and its head Yevhen Prigozhin”, not to quote his statements, but to call the Wagner fighters “volunteers” or “Russian troops”.

…

Prigozhin's public activities are confusing the Russian elite, the NY Times notes. “We do not understand what his political ambitions are. No one understands whether he has them or not, ”Oleg Matveychev, a political strategist and State Duma deputy from United Russia, said in a commentary to the newspaper. “Prigozhin behaves like a public politician, but in Russia there are practically no vacancies in public politics,” notes political scientist Alexander Kynev.

Prigozhin himself, in an interview with the WarGonzo telegram channel on Friday, February 10, said that he had "zero political ambitions."

Clearly, Prigozhin has political ambitions.

Wagner has had a meteoric rise in popularity and visibility within Russia. Naturally, the status quo is threatened by the group. As such, they have finally started clamping down on Wagner.

Furthermore, the internal feudal squabbling within Russia is only intensifying.

ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki

1/ Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov and recently demoted General Sergey Surovikin have been defeated in a bid to push out Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to a prominent Russian dissident. ⬇️

ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki

4/ However, Osechkin says, Russia's internal security agency, the FSB, found out about the plot. The trio got cold feet in a classic prisoner's dilemma. "Each of them was not prepared to risk his own well-being for the sake of a jointly successful bright future."

ChrisO_wiki @ChrisO_wiki

8/ Osechkin says that the FSB has for a long time been keeping a file on Prigozhin, who served a lengthy prison sentence for violent crimes in the 1980s. "And as long as there is such kompromat, there is no political future for Prigozhin," Osechkin predicts.

Read the whole thread.

I don’t know whether or not the claims being made are 100% correct.

But we do know that there is a fight happening within the Russian power structures. I have been writing about these feudal squabbles for months now. I can also just Prigozhin’s own broadsides against the Ministry of Defense as well. How to explain that away?

I have also concluded, just by leaning on my understanding of the political status quo within Russia since the USSR days, that there was clearly a serious squabble going on between the GRU and the FSB.

I have written about the emergence of this powerful new political player in Russia’s internal politics before, and will have lots more to say in the context of their relationship to the GRU, the military intelligence organization which helped create the organization and which seems to be at loggerheads with the FSB now.

I am seeing more and more proof of my hypothesis starting to emerge. It’s there if you allow yourself to look.

**

And now, let’s bring Bakhmut back into the picture.

Does it not make more sense now to see the fighting around Bakhmut as part of an internal political squabble? Again, look at the individual data points and follow along as I tease out the logic.

• We know that Prigozhin has been feuding with the MoD

• Prigozhin now admits that it will take years to push to the river at this pace even if Bakhmut falls

• Does this not imply that Bakhmut was not as important as the 5Ders made it out. to be, but part of an internal PR action?

As for Wagner’s fall from grace, well, our man Strelkov seems to think that the writing is on the wall for them.

Dmitri @wartranslated

Girkin believes that with Wagner terminating recruitment, its days are basically numbered. But given the state of the Russian armed forces, there will be no one to replace the death battalions who were the only ones to achieve any success in recent months.

Prigozhin has claimed that they won’t need prisoners anymore because 10 million Americans have applied to join Wagner.

That’s uh well, that’s what we kids call doing a little trolling.

GraphicW @GraphicW5

CNN asked Wagner a question and got trolled pretty hard. We of course know 10 million from the US did not sign up to join Wagner. Funny nevertheless.

I mean, you can believe him if you want. I’m thinking of starting a Twitter group where we pretend to be Wagner’s 10 million strong American sleeper cell force. But I have to weigh the lulz/risk ratio of doing this lol.

I probably won’t.

I hate Twitter.

**

The only people involved in any kind of outreach efforts are the GRU people/the Wagner people.

Koba @Roberto05246129

Wagner PMC recruitment video - now with English subs. My country may look down upon me for giving contact details. That says something about democracy and freedom in the West.

Don’t actually give them your contact information, you’ll get swooped on for supporting terrorism by the Feds.

No one else in Russia has expressed even the faintest interest. I assume that the satrap government imposed on Russia in the 90s, and the pro-convergence spooks are not allowed to cause any trouble in the West’s backyard as part of their employment contracts.

Meanwhile, we are now also hearing reports that Wagner and the GRU are preparing to help out in the looming conflict in Serbia.

Top War:

Serbia, together with PMC Wagner, is preparing a hybrid takeover of Kosovo, says the president of the partially recognized republic, Vjosa Osmani. According to The Telegraph, the Serbs want to seize Kosovo territory.

Serbia intends to use the “Crimean scenario” implemented by Russia in 2014 to “capture” the Crimean peninsula to capture Kosovo. The British edition, referring to the statement of the president of the partially recognized republic, writes that the Serbs are preparing a similar operation. For this scenario, the Serbs allegedly bring unmarked military uniforms into Kosovo. The scenario will be implemented by Serbian paramilitary units and fighters of the Russian private military company Wagner.

Groups of Serbian and Russian "militants" must create a situation on the territory of Kosovo that will require the "invasion" of the Serbian army to save the Serbian population living in the territory of the republic. In Pristina, they claim that Russia allegedly intends to create hotbeds of tension in the Balkans through Kosovo in order to divert the attention of NATO countries from Ukraine.

They bring weapons and uniforms, but are not formally part of the Serbian army. Serbia wants to achieve its goals without calling it a military operation (...) There is clear evidence that the Serbian paramilitary groups planned and organized this together with Wagner. How many of them were at the border or inside is a question that is still being investigated.

Osmani said.

Meanwhile, the founder of Wagner PMC Yevgeny Prigozhin said that "musicians" do not work in the Balkans, there are no employees of the Russian military company in Serbia and Kosovo.

I remember when the official propagand line was that Wagner didn’t exist, that they weren’t in Syria, that they didn’t fight the Americans in Deir-Ez-Zor.

Top War:

The last few days, all social networks are full of information, and “absolutely reliable,” about the terrible defeat of Wagner PMCs in the Syrian province of Deir-ez-Zor. The fact that "the Americans humiliated Russia," and "we could not answer."

What happened in Syria? Versions as much as opinions. Each "expert" has some of his own data, despite the fact that he has never been to Syria, is not related to PMCs or the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, and indeed doesn’t represent anyone or anything.

In short, Wagner advanced on American positions and got hit by missiles.

Now, the official Russian propaganda is saying that news about Serbia are fake and British disinfo.

In time, we will learn, doubtless, that the GRU were, indeed, helping out the Serbs. And that this was good and based and part of the plan all along.

**

Instead of simply blindly believing one side or the other, we ought to seek out the truth. A tall task for some, clearly.

As far as I am concerned, Wagner and the GRU are the only ones in Russia who are engaging in active measures. And, clearly, they are being resisted by forces within Russia. Frankly, if there is any one faction in Russia that I am putting my support behind, it is the GRU. Unlike the crooks and the other spooks, the GRU and it’s alumni have an actual track record of DOING SOMETHING that doesn’t rely on 5D prophets reading Kremlin tea leaves to interpret and make sense of. In other words, I can point to concrete, tangible measures taken by Wagner and the GRU that have been in the interests of Russia.

Again, I don’t have to rely on spinning 5D narratives on this blog when I talk about Wagner and the GRU. In other words, I don’t have to lie.

I suppose that is one of the benefits of not really caring about day-to-day red team v blue team politics. That is, unlike the idiots on Twitter or the 5D bloggers, I’m not looking to “own the Libs” or “own the Anglo-Fascist-Crusaders” by fighting them on every single talking point and chuckling smugly about 5D plans to the rapturous clapping and thumping of the loyal seals.

Z-people chide me on Twitter for not taking into account that God is on the side of Russia and therefore, all news from the front has to be good news. I can think of another country that thought that Gott Mit Uns and let me tell you, you don’t want to know what happened to them. But this is the level of analysis that you get once you stray from this safe haven of sanity and sober reasoning.

I deserve a medal for even trying to inject some nuance into the discourse, for all the good that it does me.