The other end of this though is events in the west. The sanctions regime is wrecking the economy of Western Europe. That isn't sustainable over an extended period of time. Even if the people there lack the ability to rise up, smaller economies have less ability to sustain war. It seems like Russia can maintain the current operational tempo for quite some time to come, by contrast.
Ultimately this looks like a war of economic attrition, and the loser will be whoever cracks first.
Why do you leave out the possibility that Russia breaks through in the Donbass & more?
Btw, Putin now plans to increase full time military nearly 10-fold.
Intel Slava Z
🇷🇺⚡Vladimir Putin signed a decree according to which the number of full-time servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces will be increased by 137,000 to 1,150,628 people.
There is no doubt that this increase in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is directly related to the entry into Russia of the liberated territories.
>Why do you leave out the possibility that Russia breaks through in the Donbass & more?
It would need a lot more men. Even if the number of full-timers increases, that takes time and Russia already has plenty of troops that haven't been committed for some reason.
If they take the time to prepare, equip and deploy a lot more men to achieve a breakthrough or encirclement that would certainly change the pace of the war. But we've been sitting waiting for this all summer already.
Why more men when Russia is making steady progress breaking down the fortified area in the Donbass?
According to Serbian President Vucic: “I know what awaits us. As soon as Vladimir Putin has done his work in Seversk, Bakhmut and Soledar, after reaching the second line Slaviansk-Kramatorsk-Avdeevka, he will come up with a proposal. And if they [the West] don’t accept it, – and they won’t – all hell will break loose.”
According to my sources, the Russian advance after securing the Donbass is a new game, with much less resistance all the way to the Dnieper. Is that too optimistic, and why? After that, the whole pro-Russia south coast will be taken to Transnistria, leaving a useless Ukrainian rump state.
More men will be needed along the way to administer and police the region gained.
Same answer: not enough men. No serious advances anywhere over the summer. Ukraine will keep sending warm bodies into the meat grinder. Russia can keep pounding them with artillery, I suppose, but I've never heard of an artillery-induced full army rout.
Russia needs to commit more men, men that it has had since the beginning of the conflict. The reason for not doing this is political. Unless something changes politically, theres no reason to believe that another 200k men will be deployed to the Donbass.
I like the lively pulse you’ve placed your finger on, but tell me…why no mention of the Global Capitalist/ one world government schemes and designs of the major player, WEF, IMF, world bank and the similar agenda underlying all these perhaps artificial enemies; Xi, Putin, CIA or whoever is actually running the US? Is this conflict in Ukraine not actually a designer war afterall? Just more global theater in order to ultimately implement centralized global techno controll? I mean, GloboCap is the only game out there now since the fall of the USSR., is it not, and it remains unopposed Thoughts?
I think you left out several other scenarios that are just as plausible and more likely given the economic pain that has been self-inflicted by the Western powers. Their situation could crumble as winter approaches as will their resolve under the self-inflicted pain. Enough of them are already on the brink of withdrawing from a failed American stranglehold on their economies. The military situation favours Russia despite the propaganda that is "reported" each day. I believe that the Western nations have miscalculated terribly. The rest of the world has caught on their scam, whether it be the pandemic, the climate change artists, or the digital id folks who need chaos for their purposes in bringing about a new world order that could keep them on top. 80% of humanity does not really agree with this new form of neo-colonialism. Times are a-changing. Demographics say a lot. Your scenarios are much too pessimistic given the facts on the ground.
The scenarios did not include an outright Russian victory. I believe that scenario is also quite possible. Slow but steady progress. It's awful that this civil war between Slavic cousins if not brothers, is having such painful and tragic consequences, all because of foreign interference.
I certainly do too but isn’t it suspicious that he and China both are in lockstep with the west on the manufactured health crisis, digital currency and the implementation of techno-cyber security and surveillance?
Not really. I mean if the technology exists, why wouldn't corporations and the secret police use it to further their power over the hapless peasants?
The only hope is that a new tech that counteracts the malign effects of the old tech emerges. Or an authoritarian populist comes to power who doesnt need such measures to stay in power.
"The financial austerity will no doubt remain in place regardless,.."
If I understand correctly you are implying that the West at present has financial austerity. Why? The USA is expected to record a Government Budget deficit equal to 16.70 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2021. That is not austerity.
Germany recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 3.70 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2021. Also not austerity. Didn't check data for any other Western countries, but my point is that at present there is no austerity.
Maybe there will be austerity in the future, but why are you expecting it. Please explain.
Straying out of the main topic of the post, and on a tangent about the city/country 'cultural' cleavage, it may be observed that in Europe it doesn't come as clear cut as "generally city boys are liberal lefties, while conservatives and traditionalists predominantly dwell in the country". That may be true in the US. This blog suggests that it is like this in Russia too.
Perhaps this is because the two above are continent-sized countries, where big conurbations are far and away from each other. So country-dwellers can live their whole lives without being influenced by the traffics and commercial environment proper of cities, which someone has called "the grease that allows for civilization to exist in the first place (otherwise competing interests would make coexistence impossible)".
In Europe, distances are much shorter, so the countryside in a way belongs to the cities, as their extended suburbs and holiday resort. From Warsaw all the way west to Paris and beyond, then south to Lyon, Marseilles, Switzerland, northern Italy, Catalonia and Madrid, there really is no concept of "cultural countryside", as a Russian or American may intend it.
" So country-dwellers can live their whole lives without being influenced by the traffics and commercial environment proper of cities,"
On this subject, readers might be interested in Graeber and Wengrow's massive treatment, The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity, which details the many times in history that communities have evaded the tyranny of urban powers. My article, After Collapse, What Next? (http://karlnorth.com/?p=1498) analyzes these possibilities opening up to US rural communities as they face an ongoing collapse.
Eerie feeling. Yesterday traffic on my road suddenly jumped to almost normal touristy summer. Today back to quiet. My normally noisy, active neighbors across the street seem to have gone into lockdown for several weeks now. Every time I decide they must have gone camping, one will appear for a minute or 2. Yesterday I saw mailman leave a package at their door. A while later, it was silently gone. The DH normally has a ridiculously loud voice. Now he speaks in normal to low volume, on rate occasion that I hear him.
Last week I called my hay man to see what's what. He set his voicemail to not accept messages & try texting. I tried texting. No response. I'm afraid of ehat costs will be this year. First batch I bought was $7 from storage. 2nd was $7 from field.
Luckily one of the really big farmers cut their 1st crop a little too early & it wasn't well enough dried. They retail thru my feed store, who is now selling it at a loss, $6/bale. I tested 4 & found its palatable but some very dusty so needs to be soaked. I'm buying as much as I can stuff in my former commuter car, up to 150, 6 at a time. That will get me thru November & then April i to May. I am allergic, so right now driving means a lot of sneezing 😆
Bleak analysis.
The other end of this though is events in the west. The sanctions regime is wrecking the economy of Western Europe. That isn't sustainable over an extended period of time. Even if the people there lack the ability to rise up, smaller economies have less ability to sustain war. It seems like Russia can maintain the current operational tempo for quite some time to come, by contrast.
Ultimately this looks like a war of economic attrition, and the loser will be whoever cracks first.
Get a load of this Ukrainian terrorist website: https://myrotvorets.center/
Yeah eventually your humble author might get put on that site.
Only if you guys help promote my blog of course!
Why do you leave out the possibility that Russia breaks through in the Donbass & more?
Btw, Putin now plans to increase full time military nearly 10-fold.
Intel Slava Z
🇷🇺⚡Vladimir Putin signed a decree according to which the number of full-time servicemen of the Russian Armed Forces will be increased by 137,000 to 1,150,628 people.
There is no doubt that this increase in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is directly related to the entry into Russia of the liberated territories.
7.2Kviews
09:06
>Why do you leave out the possibility that Russia breaks through in the Donbass & more?
It would need a lot more men. Even if the number of full-timers increases, that takes time and Russia already has plenty of troops that haven't been committed for some reason.
If they take the time to prepare, equip and deploy a lot more men to achieve a breakthrough or encirclement that would certainly change the pace of the war. But we've been sitting waiting for this all summer already.
Why more men when Russia is making steady progress breaking down the fortified area in the Donbass?
According to Serbian President Vucic: “I know what awaits us. As soon as Vladimir Putin has done his work in Seversk, Bakhmut and Soledar, after reaching the second line Slaviansk-Kramatorsk-Avdeevka, he will come up with a proposal. And if they [the West] don’t accept it, – and they won’t – all hell will break loose.”
According to my sources, the Russian advance after securing the Donbass is a new game, with much less resistance all the way to the Dnieper. Is that too optimistic, and why? After that, the whole pro-Russia south coast will be taken to Transnistria, leaving a useless Ukrainian rump state.
More men will be needed along the way to administer and police the region gained.
Why is it unrealistic?
Same answer: not enough men. No serious advances anywhere over the summer. Ukraine will keep sending warm bodies into the meat grinder. Russia can keep pounding them with artillery, I suppose, but I've never heard of an artillery-induced full army rout.
Russia needs to commit more men, men that it has had since the beginning of the conflict. The reason for not doing this is political. Unless something changes politically, theres no reason to believe that another 200k men will be deployed to the Donbass.
There's still a couple months until mud season.
In the meantime, rumors out that US is now taking arms from active military & training to send to Ukraine.
I like the lively pulse you’ve placed your finger on, but tell me…why no mention of the Global Capitalist/ one world government schemes and designs of the major player, WEF, IMF, world bank and the similar agenda underlying all these perhaps artificial enemies; Xi, Putin, CIA or whoever is actually running the US? Is this conflict in Ukraine not actually a designer war afterall? Just more global theater in order to ultimately implement centralized global techno controll? I mean, GloboCap is the only game out there now since the fall of the USSR., is it not, and it remains unopposed Thoughts?
I don't think it's a "designer war".
Putin believes Russia ought to be sovereignty and part of a multi-polar world order.
I think you left out several other scenarios that are just as plausible and more likely given the economic pain that has been self-inflicted by the Western powers. Their situation could crumble as winter approaches as will their resolve under the self-inflicted pain. Enough of them are already on the brink of withdrawing from a failed American stranglehold on their economies. The military situation favours Russia despite the propaganda that is "reported" each day. I believe that the Western nations have miscalculated terribly. The rest of the world has caught on their scam, whether it be the pandemic, the climate change artists, or the digital id folks who need chaos for their purposes in bringing about a new world order that could keep them on top. 80% of humanity does not really agree with this new form of neo-colonialism. Times are a-changing. Demographics say a lot. Your scenarios are much too pessimistic given the facts on the ground.
I didn't think they came off as that pessimistic ...
The scenarios did not include an outright Russian victory. I believe that scenario is also quite possible. Slow but steady progress. It's awful that this civil war between Slavic cousins if not brothers, is having such painful and tragic consequences, all because of foreign interference.
RT article https://www.rt.com/russia/560965-ukrainian-mirotvorets-website/
I certainly do too but isn’t it suspicious that he and China both are in lockstep with the west on the manufactured health crisis, digital currency and the implementation of techno-cyber security and surveillance?
Not really. I mean if the technology exists, why wouldn't corporations and the secret police use it to further their power over the hapless peasants?
The only hope is that a new tech that counteracts the malign effects of the old tech emerges. Or an authoritarian populist comes to power who doesnt need such measures to stay in power.
"The financial austerity will no doubt remain in place regardless,.."
If I understand correctly you are implying that the West at present has financial austerity. Why? The USA is expected to record a Government Budget deficit equal to 16.70 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2021. That is not austerity.
Germany recorded a Government Budget deficit equal to 3.70 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2021. Also not austerity. Didn't check data for any other Western countries, but my point is that at present there is no austerity.
Maybe there will be austerity in the future, but why are you expecting it. Please explain.
Straying out of the main topic of the post, and on a tangent about the city/country 'cultural' cleavage, it may be observed that in Europe it doesn't come as clear cut as "generally city boys are liberal lefties, while conservatives and traditionalists predominantly dwell in the country". That may be true in the US. This blog suggests that it is like this in Russia too.
Perhaps this is because the two above are continent-sized countries, where big conurbations are far and away from each other. So country-dwellers can live their whole lives without being influenced by the traffics and commercial environment proper of cities, which someone has called "the grease that allows for civilization to exist in the first place (otherwise competing interests would make coexistence impossible)".
In Europe, distances are much shorter, so the countryside in a way belongs to the cities, as their extended suburbs and holiday resort. From Warsaw all the way west to Paris and beyond, then south to Lyon, Marseilles, Switzerland, northern Italy, Catalonia and Madrid, there really is no concept of "cultural countryside", as a Russian or American may intend it.
" So country-dwellers can live their whole lives without being influenced by the traffics and commercial environment proper of cities,"
On this subject, readers might be interested in Graeber and Wengrow's massive treatment, The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity, which details the many times in history that communities have evaded the tyranny of urban powers. My article, After Collapse, What Next? (http://karlnorth.com/?p=1498) analyzes these possibilities opening up to US rural communities as they face an ongoing collapse.
The US is very unstable. No telling WHAT is going to happen here next.
Eerie feeling. Yesterday traffic on my road suddenly jumped to almost normal touristy summer. Today back to quiet. My normally noisy, active neighbors across the street seem to have gone into lockdown for several weeks now. Every time I decide they must have gone camping, one will appear for a minute or 2. Yesterday I saw mailman leave a package at their door. A while later, it was silently gone. The DH normally has a ridiculously loud voice. Now he speaks in normal to low volume, on rate occasion that I hear him.
Last week I called my hay man to see what's what. He set his voicemail to not accept messages & try texting. I tried texting. No response. I'm afraid of ehat costs will be this year. First batch I bought was $7 from storage. 2nd was $7 from field.
Luckily one of the really big farmers cut their 1st crop a little too early & it wasn't well enough dried. They retail thru my feed store, who is now selling it at a loss, $6/bale. I tested 4 & found its palatable but some very dusty so needs to be soaked. I'm buying as much as I can stuff in my former commuter car, up to 150, 6 at a time. That will get me thru November & then April i to May. I am allergic, so right now driving means a lot of sneezing 😆