The Iranian Government is as Toothless as it is Rotten From the Inside

This marks the end for the Axis of Impotence.

The big news was, of course, the totally expected (if ahead of schedule) Israeli strikes on Iran. I am on record predicting Washington entering into war with Iran by the end of this fall, by the way. I based this analysis off a fortune teller’s astrology reading I saw last November? I think. That is, I was 100% sure that Trump’s ear going missing ahead of the elections and then magically reappearing once he won them meant a cascade of events that would culminate in US + Israel war with Iran down the line. I just didn’t know when, exactly, and figured that one guess was as good as any other.

But we have a lot of ground to cover today, so I’m going to ditch my rambling, free-flow style and try to structure today’s analysis to stress key points and make key predictions.

Preliminary Reading

I wrote several prescient articles promising that Tehran’s government would do everything possible to deliberately lose that war, once it came around.

Here:

And here.

You might also want to read

Neoliberal Feudalism

’s recent post, which referenced more interesting data points. Here.

The Aftermath Sit-Rep

Israel launched a devastating attack on Iran and we still don’t know the full extent of the damage. There doesn’t seem to be any reason to believe that the attacks will stop either. Here is what the score card looks like, as far as we can tell.

Iran's U.N. envoy Amir Saeid Iravani said 78 people, including senior military officials, have been killed in Israel's strikes on Iran and more than 320 wounded, most of them civilians.

Tehran launched waves of airstrikes on Saturday after two salvos on Friday night, Fars reported. One of the waves targeted Tel Aviv, Israel's commercial hub, before dawn on Saturday, with explosions heard as far as Jerusalem, witnesses said.

Those were in response to Israel's attacks on Iran early on Friday against commanders, nuclear scientists, military targets and nuclear sites. Iran denies that its uranium enrichment activities are part of a secret weapons programme.

The U.S. military helped shoot down Iranian missiles headed to Israel on Friday, two U.S. officials said. Israel's military said Iran fired fewer than 100 missiles on Friday and that most were intercepted or fell short.

Iran did a lot of symbolic gestures, but only about 10 missiles got through to Tel Aviv.

Like in the Russia-Ukraine war, where Ukraine causes real damage by hitting factories, bridges, refineries, and even killing Russian generals, while Russia often hits empty fields and sheds — the same goes for Israel and Iran. Israel strikes important targets, while Iran mostly hits empty buildings and barracks. — Nikola Mikovich

Here is a good summary of the situation that I agree with:

A bewildered Iran tries to rise, with more propaganda than action.

Tonight, Iran was able to move some missile launchers and attack Israel, along with a wave of drones that are mostly being intercepted by Israeli Apache helicopters and aircraft. As expected, Iran's response was minimal, with fewer than 10 missiles hitting Tel Aviv—an insignificant amount for a nation with a stockpile of many thousands of missiles.

This feeble action reflects a regime that is completely stunned and hostage to a broad network of Mossad operatives operating within its territory, which has not been identified, and tonight detonated more explosives. Israeli drones at high altitudes map and monitor Iranian territory, searching for launchers, essentially inhibiting any large-scale response, as I mentioned in the previous post.

The Iranian regime focused on internal propaganda, displaying old footage of missile systems and threatening retaliation. Later, Iranian media showed a video of a submarine launching missiles, but it was actually a Russian submarine from a 2022 video. Iran was able to reactivate some anti-aircraft batteries tonight, although these are still rare pieces of equipment supported by many self-propelled guns.

Despite very little damage to Iran’s nuclear program, Mossad’s operations in Tehran are causing panic among scientists and military personnel. Who would want to take a front-line position in the Iranian program and become a target of Mossad within Iranian territory? The Israeli secret service is evolving beyond a mere intelligence agency, becoming a key part of front-line military operations. Without them, Israel wouldn't be able to carry out the recent attacks.

Iran’s air defenses were proven to be either totally ineffective or completely turned off.

Also: is a MYTH that Putin has secretly been supplying the Iranian military with S-300s, 400s, or S-Over9000!!!s for that matter. They didn’t provide Hezbollah, Hamas or Assad with these air defenses either — that was another alt-media myth.

Moscow prefers to sell its advanced air defense systems to their good and trusted friend Turkey instead.

Total Mossad Victory

As I have tried to explain several times in my analyses, Iran’s government is completely run by Western intelligence agencies, and Mossad. Just like Russia. It was, however, important to conceal this reality from the general public to make the upcoming wars seem “real” and actually about something lofty and principled, instead of just a cull or an inter-gang turf war.

Now though, the mainstream media is gloating about how thoroughly Iran’s government has been penetrated by Mossad. Here is CNN:

Before Israel launched an unprecedented wave of strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and top military leaders this week, its spies were already on the ground in enemy territory.

Israeli intelligence agency Mossad had smuggled weapons into Iran ahead of the strikes, according to Israeli security officials, and would use the weapons to target Iran’s defense from within.

The officials said Israel established a base for launching explosive drones inside Iran, and the drones were later used to target missile launchers near Tehran. Precision weapons were also smuggled in and used to target surface-to-air missile systems, clearing the way for Israel’s Air Force to carry out more than 100 strikes with upward of 200 aircraft in the early hours of Friday local time.

The plan to disable Iranian defenses seems to have been effective; Israel said all of its aircraft returned safely from the first waves of strikes, appearing to show Israeli air superiority over parts of a country hundreds of miles away.

Intelligence gathered by the Mossad in Iran also gave Israel’s air force the ability to target senior Iranian commanders and scientists.

In an incredibly rare move, the Mossad released video from some of its operations, showing drones attacking what appear to be unsuspecting missile launchers.

It is the latest operation to show how deeply Israel’s intelligence services, including the Mossad, have penetrated some of Iran’s most closely guarded secrets. The operations have made the Mossad appear a nearly unstoppable force in Iran, capable of hitting at some of its highest-ranking officials and most sensitive sites.

“Mossad has treated Iran like its playground for years now,” said Holly Dagres, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute and curator of the Iranist newsletter.

“From assassinating top nuclear scientists to sabotaging Iranian nuclear facilities, Israel has proved time and time again that it has always had the upper hand in this shadow war that has now been playing out in the open since the first tit-for-tat strikes in April 2024.”

An Israeli security source said the latest operation required commando forces operating deep within Tehran and across the country while avoiding detection from Iran’s security and intelligence agencies. The source said Mossad teams targeted air defense missiles, ballistic missiles, and missile launchers as the attack from the Israeli Air Force began.

A second Israeli security source said the Mossad operations were years in the making, involving both intelligence-gathering efforts and the deployment of Mossad commandos deep behind enemy lines.

Some of the Mossad commando forces operated in the Iranian capital itself, according to the security source.

The catch is that this kind of report only reveals that the Iranian government has been “infiltrated” by the enemy.

I would, of course, point out that this is not an entirely accurate term.

I would instead say that the current Iranian government was “created” by the enemy and “is run by” the enemy, not “infiltrated”.

But still … baby steps.

Russian Samizdat Speaks

Now, the premise of my blog is that I share the news and opinions of Russia’s “Right of Kremlin” or patriotic hardliners and samizdat dissidents with an English-speaking audience. These guys are quite good in their analyses and the reason why I am the best English-language predictor conspiracy theorist analyst is because I simply copy what these “crazy Russians” are saying on Telegram.

So, without further ado, here are some interesting speculations.

Did Iran’s political leaders cooperated with Israel to eliminate the military hardliner faction?

Here is what the infamous Rybar channel had to say:

📝Israeli strike as a point of political restructuring in Iran📝

Today's events in the Islamic Republic of Iran are not just a military operation, but also a key moment in the redistribution of power within the country. Regardless of whether Tehran will respond to Israel's actions or not (and so far the reaction looks restrained), we can already talk about radical changes in the Iranian management hierarchy.

As a result of the strike, several high-ranking and influential representatives of the leadership and military, whose opinion carried weight in the Iranian generals, were killed.

🔻Almost immediately, Ali Khamenei reacted quickly - he approved a number of new appointments:

▪General Mohammad Pakpour (former commander of the IRGC Ground Forces) became the Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC

▪General Abdulrahim Mousavi (previously headed the Army) became the Chief of the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces

▪General Ali Shadmani (previously his deputy) became the head of Khatam al-Anbiya

▪The figure of Ahmad Vahidi, who was initially written about as the new commander-in-chief of the IRGC, also remained in the spotlight - he will probably receive another key position. Vahidi is not just a career general, but a former defense minister under Ahmadinejad and interior minister under Raisi, during the period of protests and the investigation into the death of the president himself.

📌What is important: all the new figures are controlled, systemic and little known in the public arena. These are functionaries who are capable of ensuring stability and implementing decisions within the line of the spiritual leader.

❗In essence, today's attack, while damaging Iran, simultaneously strengthened the position of the Khamenei clan. Independent and potentially dangerous actors are being eliminated from the system, and key control nodes are being transferred to loyal figures.

➡The best example of this is the liquidation of Ali Shamkhani, who was previously called the "admiral of the shadow fleet" for his control over a significant sector of the economy. He was considered a possible competitor to Mojtaba Khamenei. But in recent years, Shamkhani was removed from the post of Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council, and his associates were either arrested or liquidated.

Even earlier, reformers like Mohammad Javad Zarif and Abdolnasser Hemmati were squeezed out of the political scene. Now the Khamenei clan almost completely controls the power architecture of Iran. And Raisi's death only accelerated the cleansing process before the future transit.

(…)

I wonder how quickly Mojtaba Khamenei will consolidate society? And will Ali Khamenei's death be played out as planned?

The recent attack on the residence perfectly complements the picture of the clan's overall strengthening (https://t.me/rybar/71286) with the important detail of the Khamenei family's sacrifice.

Like, “they beat us up too, don't think that we were in on all of this”.

These same conspiracy theorists also speculated before that Tehran had helped Trump and Bibi kill off General Souleimani in the past. I believe that they were very correct in this analysis then, and I hold to that belief even more now, now that the perfidy of Tehran’s top politicians has been revealed in the wake of their non-response and non-preparedness for this Mossad attack.

…

Comparisons between Moscow’s impotence and Tehrans have been made.

Here:

❗️Many people rightly write that one of the key reasons why Iran has been pursuing a non-sovereign policy in the field of ensuring its security over the past few years and losing points with the country as a whole and influence in the region is the presence of a huge number of Mossad agents in the country's top military-political leadership. That's true. And some high-ranking generals of the KSIR even publicly admitted this.

But it is worth noting that there are even more various Mossad and CIA agents in the Kremlin, the Presidential Administration, the Government, on Lubyanka, in the top military-political leadership of the Russian Federation, as well as among the Russian oligarchy with Jewish surnames than in Iran.

P.S. Hence: a failed (within the framework of achieving the initially announced strategic goals, including the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine), deliberately protracted and strictly according to Washington's plans SMO; Russia's complete loss of its influence in the post-Soviet space; a murderous migration policy; murderous socio-economic policy in the Russian Federation (the Central Bank rate of 20% is an important indicator of this); blatant attacks, including from the highest state structures, on Orthodoxy; genocide of our indigenous population; lack of retribution for terrorist attacks, strikes on our nuclear triad and various sabotage/operations of the enemy inside our country; absolute impunity of internal enemies for betraying Russia's interests; and so on.

The Kremlin is an even bigger breeding ground for Mossad and the CIA than Iran. Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will not let me lie!

The Kremlin has actually shown that it has more fight in it than Tehran, to be quite honest. But I believe more blood will end up being spilled over the Iran thing, long-term.

ZAnon/Axis of Impotence Cope

True to form, the propagandists hired by Beijing, Tehran and Moscow to cover up for the fact that these governments are occupation satrapies of Washington, DC and Tel Aviv spent the last two days putting out triumphalist disinfo on Twitter.

Pepe Escobar, in particular, put out a lot of fake news.

Here are some examples of him putting out fake footage of Iran’s non-existent severe response:

Not hard to see why he would be coping with fake videos of Iranian retaliation when he was posting doom and gloom right before that:

Over on Xitter, it was just wall-to-wall cope. Pepe (long-time supporter of my blog) is just fun to laugh at, so I singled him out.

I was also happy to see people mocking Iran’s leadership and the fake Axis of Resistance narrative.

You couldn’t ask for better villains than the Iranian mullah theocrat geriatrics.

They make themselves look ominous and garb themselves in black turbans and evil wizard robes while they mutter out weird religious-sounding curse-spells at the West. All the while, they are completely and totally owned by the Western intelligence agencies. Total boogeymen stooges — set up to take a fall and to drag their country down into the mire of Abrahamic theological mumbo-jumbo instead of taking necessary measures to modernize their military, their infrastructure, acquire big bombs as deterrents, etc. Iran’s leadership is the only caste of political leaders in the world that seems to believe that the Koran explicitly bans the acquiring of nuclear weapons, by the way.

HOW CONVENIENT.

…

However, not all copers coped to the same degree this time around.

A notable exception was Slavyangrad, a channel that I strongly dislike for their lie-filled coverage of Russia’s successes in Donbass and their Pepe-style globalist Marxist propaganda, were able to admit that Iran’s response was not particularly inspiring.

Here:

Overall, it is worth saying that yesterday's Iranian response to Israel's massive strikes turned out to be significantly weaker in terms of consequences, scale and strategic depth than expected.

Israel launched targeted, coordinated strikes that knocked out much of the critical infrastructure of Iran's nuclear program and destroyed key IRGC leadership, including the command and engineering core responsible for advancing the nuclear cycle. The same cannot be said of facilities that were built with the prospect of events like yesterday in mind.

The Iranian response, on the contrary, was more symbolic: a series of spectacular launches and demonstrative steps, calculated for the domestic public and to maintain the course of action, but not changing the balance in the real plane. An exception can and will be considered a strike on the Israeli nuclear center in Dimona, but only if the facility's incapacitation is confirmed.

However, it is worth noting that after the vertical of command was decapitated, Iran managed to restore the necessary level of operational coordination in less than a day . This indicates the presence of duplicate circuits and crisis protocols in the decision-making system, which generally increases the stability of the regime.

The next expected step is the threat to close the Strait of Hormuz and Israel's readiness to strike Iran's entire oil infrastructure in response. This is a direct slide of the conflict into an energy escalation , which is already affecting global markets and drawing into the game not only the Middle Eastern countries, but also all the main oil importers - from China to India. And if this direction is activated, the conflict will go beyond the framework of neighborly strife and move into the phase of a regional redistribution of leverage through strikes on the economy .

Israel has shown that it can destroy strategic objects. Iran has shown that it can maintain external control even with significant internal losses. Now the parties are ready to take the next steps. If Iran's nuclear program survives yesterday's strikes, Iran will likely set a course for creating nuclear weapons, something the country has publicly denied in recent years.

There’s still a lot of cope in that analysis, but at least they’re not pretending that Iran knocked out entire bunkers full of underground NATO shadow-legion officers with hypersonic missiles.

Still, progress of a kind, I suppose.

Prelude to the Dismemberment of Iran

It is no secret that Iran is a multinational rump-empire state. The titular and founding ethnos of the Iranian project are the Persians, who live in the center of the country and who do the most to keep the state running.

There are, however, lots of disgruntled and weaponized ethnic and religious minorities within Iran who are eager to throw off the “yoke” of Tehran.

Terrorist bombs have already started going off in several regions of Iran, almost as if they were timed with the Israeli attacks. Here:

A statement was just made about a terrorist attack on an Iranian police station in Zahedan (Sistan and Baluchestan), where Baloch separatists from Jaish al-Adl were involved. Sistan and Baluchestan is one of the most disadvantaged areas in the southeast of Iran, where something is constantly happening.

For those who are familiar with Syria, this is equivalent to an attack by ISIS militants in the desert between Palmyra and Deir ez-Zor.

The attacks take place near the border with Pakistan, where the terrorists retreat time after time. In January 2024, there was even an episode (https://t.me/rybar/56071) of border clashes, but everything ended well.

📌What is interesting about this situation is that Israel's Baloch stooges may try (and will try) to draw Pakistani security forces into the confrontation in order to destabilize the situation on Iran's eastern borders. It is unlikely to go beyond a local escalation, but "awakening the sleeping" is one of the most favorite tricks during such escalations

But the real problem lies in the north, on the border with Azerbaijan.

The Israeli-supplied Azeri military has already demonstrated its effectiveness when it absolutely stomped the unprepared and treacherously-led Armenian military and militias. Baku will eventually decide to intervene in these territories. If I had to guess, an “SMO” into northern Iran is the most likely follow-up scenario.

The end goal is to foment a civil war and general destruction in the area.

Iran now has a weak and compromised government that will not be able to deal with these problems and, to make matters worse, will probably be kicked unceremoniously to the curb quickly via SMO, like Assad’s klepto-mafia was last. The ensuing government will then fight a cruel and senseless and grinding civil war within its territory that will devastate Iran for generations to come. Islamic fundamentalism will flourish and the core Persian population will suffer the most from it.

Just as the blessed and holy Old Testament prophets of Yahweh would have wanted!

Iran’s non-response will only invite more aggression, by the way.

Mark my words.

This war will be as fake as the one in Donbass, but the blood will flow regardless.