The 5D crowd are now claiming that Putin is embracing Mongol tactics. On the vastness of the steppe territory matters little, defeating the enemy is all that matters. So his awe inspiring attrition strategy paired with cunning tactical retreats is pure genghis khan. He ain't doing judo, this is 6D Bokh
Apr 10, 2023·edited Apr 10, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker
Alright I was wrong about the death figures: the original really said 40k Russian deaths (probably realistic in early 2023 if we include Wagner and militias) and 17k Ukrainian deaths (an obvious underestimate). Donbas Devushka or someone before them then photoshopped the numbers and even the NYT fell for it.
Show that a big offensive is coming and so push Russia to the negociation table..
Then you wrote that Putin is lied to by the MoD, FSB..
I am always skeptical when I read that the "big boss" doesnt know about something...Sometimes they do not want to know. But lets say that they lie to him. No possibility that during their face to face meeting Lukashenko or Xi would have told him?
Rolo, did you try to get on the Gonzalo Lira Roundtable on youtube? He claims to want to hear from opposite opinions. Did you ever hear from anyone at unz? I notice you are often in the Occidental Observer, can someone from there like Kevin MacDonald provide you with Ron Unz contact address?
I'd love to get on that roundtable. I don't know how though. My name is out there though. Like, its not even disputable at this point. I've had funny moments where ppl have sent me links to my own stuff and asked me, "what do you think of this guy" and ive had to bite my tongue and say, "yeah, he's pretty good."
I've seen my stuff posted on literally every odd forum out there. There is no denying that ppl don't know who I am or my positions or that they can't reach out and engage with me.
Unz is a great guy but when it comes to military matters he isn't an expert or an opinion leader, he's just a boomer who follows other boomers like Ritter and MacGregor. If anything Unz should contact Rolo, not the other way around. In any complex war you can tell many stories for quite some time, but ultimately your stories won't change reality.
The pro-Russian lobby on the Unz Review and 4chan's /pol/ is absolutely insane. They spin such outright childish make-believe stories that you can't ever find on the Russian internet (be it the monarchists such as Strelkov, Stalinists such as Maxim Kalashnikov, or anarkiddies such as Sofa Legion Strategist).
Didn't Simplicius hedge his bets last Feb. 18th? That is, he said that Russia was "playing it by ear", with "fluid/variable/modular plans" and "maskirovka" in a "fluid Jeet Kune Do" fashion. It was all vague enough that he could claim afterwards that he was right all along. And to the extent he was obviously wrong, he blamed it on the weather.
He also said "It’s an open secret UA intends to build for a mass Spring offensive", so you can't say that this prospect is taking Simplicius by surprise.
Didn't you hedge your bets too? I mean, your article was headlined "Hedging My Bets..." ... and your prediction was that fighting would intensify. Has fighting really intensified, or have both sides been grinding along at more or less the same level? I can't tell.
Simplicius is still hedging his bets now. He says "it's not guaranteed that Ukraine is due to collapse" and that the leaked documents call for Ukraine to beg for more ammo to stave off disaster.
I agree with your argument that the leaker probably had a "krisha" who wanted the data to be leaked. And what is the motivation, you ask? Isn't it most likely that "krisha" wants NATO to send more shells, and beef up air defense pronto? If one takes this data leak at face value, the Neocons have got to be shitting in their pants, because the numbers paint a story that the Ukrainian offensive is going nowhere.
So are you making a clear prediction now? Are you expecting Ukraine to invade the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and massacre the population, as Tex Bentley is worried about? Do you think the Ukrainians are going to recapture Mariupol and cut off the land bridge from Russia to Crimea?
As a respectful subject in your Citadel, I am looking for a sign, O Autark Rolo! Give us a clear prophecy, and give it to us straight!
My guess FWIW is that the stalemate will continue, with first one side and the other making slow advances at best. And you and Simplicius will both be able to fall back on your hedges.
Did you read the article? I literally doubled down.
No, you didn't. Go read it now.
And you have no right to petition the Autark for anything seeing as you a) don't read my posts b) don't pay me. You are rabble and you will get whatever slop I see fit to dish out to you.
Yes I did read it! That's how I know that YOU know that Simplicius didn't actually say anything that you could pin him down on.
Of course you were right to point out that all his alleged evidence of a Russian winter offensive, didn't amount to a hill of beans.
But, I believe that the Russians could have staged some sort of offensive, if they wanted to. And they were sending out confusing signals that maybe they would. They just decided in Jeet Kon Do fashion, that it would be wiser not to.
No, all I predicted was a Ukrainian push on the south. The goal is to cut off Crimea. Donetsk isn't easy to take. Lugansk is too far away. Mariupol? Well, who knows. Could be Melitople instead. In general, we don't know if Russia will even fight or not.
Fair enough. I will take this as a prophecy. If Ukraine takes Melitople or Mariupol (with or without a fight) then I will repent of my dubious doubts, and acknowledge that a greater one than Simplicius blogs here.
IIRC Rolo predicted they'd make Zaporizhe (sp?) the main thrust of an offensive. Personally I agree because losing multiple nuke plants is hurting Ukrainian electricity generation plus it makes a good false flag location.
Wouldn't that be an anti-climax, if the Ukrainian offensive doesn't get any farther than the nuclear plant? It's right across the Kakhovka Reservoir, a few miles from Ukrainian-held Marivka. Or, a road trip across open fields and small towns along the coast from the city of Z.
That would easily fall under my guess that there will be minor advances by one side or the other.
People claim that Putin is isolated from the state of the war by Shoigu and other bureaucrats, but Putin has long war meetings with Lukashenko. Lukashenko would have to be equally isolated in the same way. Putin also talks to the Iranian leadership about the war situation in Syria regularly.
The figures you mention were a later NAFO photoshop fake. The original figures are probably correct. The BBC also counted 17k Russian army deaths (no Wagner, no Donbas militias) and total deaths on the Russian side about 40k. And the Ukrainian figures are also reasonable (this was in February).
btw, I justed wanted to add that I really appreciate your substack, you have always provided one of the most realistic and profound perspectives on Ukraine and Russia. I guess it's just normal that most of the simple people are drawn to the fabulists on either side of the conflict. the truth is there are rather few sophisticated people who are interested in the actual facts.
haha, I don't know what RT reported and why, but NYT saw the documents first and they always said 17k on the Russian side and 70k on the Ukrainian side. BBC counted burials in Russia and also found something like 20k. But yes you have to add LDNR and Wagner and prisoners and so on, and the severely wounded / half-dead.
Russian military deaths is about 20k, most of the recent deaths were Wagner/prisoners. 60k to 70k total Ukrainian deaths including territorial defense sound totally plausible. Obviously there are many more wounded and disabled.
The Russian military likes to throw Russian conscripts into LDNR formations where they are not counted as official RF deaths. So, OK, we can take the 20k official number of RF deaths (I think it is more) and then we have to add LDNR and Wagner and Kadyrov and some other mercenaries to get to a reasonable figure.
20k total doesn't pass the sniff test. Neither does 40k.
Also, many of the wounded will also die in the coming months and year. They are the walking dead. All wars have a portion of the wounded succumbing to injuries after hostilities have ended.
All these factors point to a much higher number.
I think that the 60-70k ukrainian deaths is too low. Closer to 100k at this point. The leak is at least a month old anyways and we may be seeing 200-300 dead a day now.
"From where I am sitting, there is literally no new takeaway from this information at all. If anything, that is the one detail that lends the leak some credibility."
Yup: the leak makes a negative contribution, in that it undermines deniability of several assertions, and actually simplifies things. If that gets people thinking critically, great.
I put little stock in common sense: it's propagandists' fare. I'm omnivorous when it comes to data or rumor; it's all evidence of some sort, whether serious or frivolous. But I'm very frugal in drawing conclusions.
So far America has shown remarkable restraint in boiling the Russian frog. For all intents and purposes, Putin is an American spy, but the Americans are still not taking any chances. This leak could have its aim in bolstering Russian morale to send more army to the useless Bakhmut meat grinder.
Scamerika, land of the fraud, has sold its template to the world, worship war, wealth & embrace the reprobate spirit. Maybe the latest transgender trend is a preparatory ruse to get “ Big Mike” back into the Whitehouse ( a fourth Obama administration, Brandon being the 3rd)
As far as Chabas stuff goes take a look at “Noahide Law” & ask your self “ Why does every President have to meet a delegation of these strange cult figures & sign an agreement with them.
This may make you go AH-Hah”!
Ukraine ‘war’ is a lot like Coovid crap.
Scam for profit, big death count (mostly whitey’s you notice) offload some obsolete crap for huge money laundering. Wholesale fear, disinfo misinfo, propaganda, military secrecy, martial law ( or is it just “ rules based orders”) Tons of censorship, useful idiots, I investigated crimes, murders, plausible deniability by the bucketloads.
All is evil save thee & me, and sometimes I have reservations about thee.
In the search for truth we must accept we are not truth itself.
I liked the theory that this is internal US politics, and the leak (whether real or fake) was done by the Pentagon to try to get out of the war in Ukraine, versus the American State Department, which is trying to escalate against Russia.
Maybe these leaked documents will provide the 'off-ramp' or 'exit-strategy' from Ukraine for the USA.
'Oops, what a pity our cunning plan was revealed; now we won't be able to support that Ukrainian offensive. BTW there's no more money or guns for you, sorry about that. Gotta catch that helicopter from the Embassy roof. Bye!'
Nice post by Gion clarifying the difference between the original leaked document posted and the later NAFO fake version. Frankly the details in the original about NATO involvement and supply all seem about right and the figures for those killed also about right - bearing in mind that the Russian figures exclude the Donbass militias and Wagener who seem to have borne the brunt of the fighting in the past 8 months, and are probably close to the Russian KIA figure. We shall see if there are arrests for this either in Ukraine or USA - if not then the suspicion that its an inside US job (Like the Seymour Hersh leak) is more likely. In the latter case it might well come from the Obama crime family who lead the faction in the Democratic Party less enthusiastic about the direction the Biden crime family has been pushing - also of course wanting to discredit the Biden's subtly in order to clear the way for a presidential run by an Obama favourite - possibly even by Michelle herself, as Tucker Carlson has suggested at times. It could be the Russians of course but I'd rule them out - they lack the gumption, competence, subtlety, and connections to do this.
Unless I missed something the only thing he clarified was that the Russian KIA did not include the Donbass militias and Wagner group.
The current arrest in the USA of some poor bugger who will spend his life in prison for doing the public a service strengthens the case that the leak was genuine.
Of course that doesn't mean all the details were correct - US intelligence would be relying to some extent on what Ukrainians say for example. But it does suggest this was a genuine appraisal by US intelligence.
The only other likely possibility is that it is an elaborate disinformation attempt by US intelligence to mislead the Russians. That could be but seems unlikely .. they would have posted it more prominently and would be less likely to arrest someone for it. That's not entirely impossible but would be a bit too convoluted with too much room for error. All the US responses so far suggest its most likely to be genuine, so Gion did not get the basic idea wrong, just a minor detail.
"Alright I was wrong about the death figures: the original really said 40k Russian deaths (probably realistic in early 2023 if we include Wagner and militias) and 17k Ukrainian deaths (an obvious underestimate). Donbas Devushka or someone before them then photoshopped the numbers and even the NYT fell for it."
The 5D crowd are now claiming that Putin is embracing Mongol tactics. On the vastness of the steppe territory matters little, defeating the enemy is all that matters. So his awe inspiring attrition strategy paired with cunning tactical retreats is pure genghis khan. He ain't doing judo, this is 6D Bokh
Alright I was wrong about the death figures: the original really said 40k Russian deaths (probably realistic in early 2023 if we include Wagner and militias) and 17k Ukrainian deaths (an obvious underestimate). Donbas Devushka or someone before them then photoshopped the numbers and even the NYT fell for it.
The reason for the leak?
Show that a big offensive is coming and so push Russia to the negociation table..
Then you wrote that Putin is lied to by the MoD, FSB..
I am always skeptical when I read that the "big boss" doesnt know about something...Sometimes they do not want to know. But lets say that they lie to him. No possibility that during their face to face meeting Lukashenko or Xi would have told him?
Rolo, did you try to get on the Gonzalo Lira Roundtable on youtube? He claims to want to hear from opposite opinions. Did you ever hear from anyone at unz? I notice you are often in the Occidental Observer, can someone from there like Kevin MacDonald provide you with Ron Unz contact address?
I'd love to get on that roundtable. I don't know how though. My name is out there though. Like, its not even disputable at this point. I've had funny moments where ppl have sent me links to my own stuff and asked me, "what do you think of this guy" and ive had to bite my tongue and say, "yeah, he's pretty good."
I've seen my stuff posted on literally every odd forum out there. There is no denying that ppl don't know who I am or my positions or that they can't reach out and engage with me.
You have to encourage your fans to bug them to put you on. Harassment works.
Unz is a great guy but when it comes to military matters he isn't an expert or an opinion leader, he's just a boomer who follows other boomers like Ritter and MacGregor. If anything Unz should contact Rolo, not the other way around. In any complex war you can tell many stories for quite some time, but ultimately your stories won't change reality.
Isn't Ritter a convicted sex criminal?
Think he got stung by a fake 13yr old
The pro-Russian lobby on the Unz Review and 4chan's /pol/ is absolutely insane. They spin such outright childish make-believe stories that you can't ever find on the Russian internet (be it the monarchists such as Strelkov, Stalinists such as Maxim Kalashnikov, or anarkiddies such as Sofa Legion Strategist).
If you meet the Buddha on the road kill him.
Funny how that happens to a lot of UN people.
It’s just ron@unz.com for the record. Mailing address is:
The Unz Review
555 Bryant St. #371
Palo Alto, CA 94301
Didn't Simplicius hedge his bets last Feb. 18th? That is, he said that Russia was "playing it by ear", with "fluid/variable/modular plans" and "maskirovka" in a "fluid Jeet Kune Do" fashion. It was all vague enough that he could claim afterwards that he was right all along. And to the extent he was obviously wrong, he blamed it on the weather.
He also said "It’s an open secret UA intends to build for a mass Spring offensive", so you can't say that this prospect is taking Simplicius by surprise.
Didn't you hedge your bets too? I mean, your article was headlined "Hedging My Bets..." ... and your prediction was that fighting would intensify. Has fighting really intensified, or have both sides been grinding along at more or less the same level? I can't tell.
Simplicius is still hedging his bets now. He says "it's not guaranteed that Ukraine is due to collapse" and that the leaked documents call for Ukraine to beg for more ammo to stave off disaster.
I agree with your argument that the leaker probably had a "krisha" who wanted the data to be leaked. And what is the motivation, you ask? Isn't it most likely that "krisha" wants NATO to send more shells, and beef up air defense pronto? If one takes this data leak at face value, the Neocons have got to be shitting in their pants, because the numbers paint a story that the Ukrainian offensive is going nowhere.
So are you making a clear prediction now? Are you expecting Ukraine to invade the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk and massacre the population, as Tex Bentley is worried about? Do you think the Ukrainians are going to recapture Mariupol and cut off the land bridge from Russia to Crimea?
As a respectful subject in your Citadel, I am looking for a sign, O Autark Rolo! Give us a clear prophecy, and give it to us straight!
My guess FWIW is that the stalemate will continue, with first one side and the other making slow advances at best. And you and Simplicius will both be able to fall back on your hedges.
>headlined "Hedging My Bets...
Did you read the article? I literally doubled down.
No, you didn't. Go read it now.
And you have no right to petition the Autark for anything seeing as you a) don't read my posts b) don't pay me. You are rabble and you will get whatever slop I see fit to dish out to you.
Yes I did read it! That's how I know that YOU know that Simplicius didn't actually say anything that you could pin him down on.
Of course you were right to point out that all his alleged evidence of a Russian winter offensive, didn't amount to a hill of beans.
But, I believe that the Russians could have staged some sort of offensive, if they wanted to. And they were sending out confusing signals that maybe they would. They just decided in Jeet Kon Do fashion, that it would be wiser not to.
>They just decided in Jeet Kon Do fashion, that it would be wiser not to.
Words fail me.
Umm... yes I do send you tribute, O autark!
And you didn't answer my question. Are you predicting the fall of the cities of Donetsk, Luhansk and/or Mariupol? Or not?
Oh, weird, I didn't see it.
No, all I predicted was a Ukrainian push on the south. The goal is to cut off Crimea. Donetsk isn't easy to take. Lugansk is too far away. Mariupol? Well, who knows. Could be Melitople instead. In general, we don't know if Russia will even fight or not.
The Russians have reportedly dug a trench 70km long, located 9km north of Melitopol. The Ukrainians published a satellite image.
https://focus.ua/uk/voennye-novosti/559675-rosijski-vijskovi-vikopali-okop-zavdovzhki-70-km-u-zaporizkij-oblasti (H/T Canadian Prepper)
Looks like the Russians are planning to fight.
Fair enough. I will take this as a prophecy. If Ukraine takes Melitople or Mariupol (with or without a fight) then I will repent of my dubious doubts, and acknowledge that a greater one than Simplicius blogs here.
IIRC Rolo predicted they'd make Zaporizhe (sp?) the main thrust of an offensive. Personally I agree because losing multiple nuke plants is hurting Ukrainian electricity generation plus it makes a good false flag location.
Wouldn't that be an anti-climax, if the Ukrainian offensive doesn't get any farther than the nuclear plant? It's right across the Kakhovka Reservoir, a few miles from Ukrainian-held Marivka. Or, a road trip across open fields and small towns along the coast from the city of Z.
That would easily fall under my guess that there will be minor advances by one side or the other.
People claim that Putin is isolated from the state of the war by Shoigu and other bureaucrats, but Putin has long war meetings with Lukashenko. Lukashenko would have to be equally isolated in the same way. Putin also talks to the Iranian leadership about the war situation in Syria regularly.
Well, Luka also ignored Covid.
Did that get through Putin's thick skull?
That gets back to my theory that Putin is in the early stages of dementia.
I heard a rumour that a fortune teller told Putin that green snot would kill him. He took this to be covid and got scared
Concerning the numbers of deaths, the original document said 17k Russian army deaths and 60k-70k Ukrainian deaths: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/06/us/politics/ukraine-war-plan-russia.html
The figures you mention were a later NAFO photoshop fake. The original figures are probably correct. The BBC also counted 17k Russian army deaths (no Wagner, no Donbas militias) and total deaths on the Russian side about 40k. And the Ukrainian figures are also reasonable (this was in February).
The Russians say the opposite.
That would make no sense. This is the original leak (full sheet) and the NAFO fake (photoshopped excerpt): https://twitter.com/mojasrpska1992/status/1644418608330678301
You should alert RT and the Kremlin.
btw, I justed wanted to add that I really appreciate your substack, you have always provided one of the most realistic and profound perspectives on Ukraine and Russia. I guess it's just normal that most of the simple people are drawn to the fabulists on either side of the conflict. the truth is there are rather few sophisticated people who are interested in the actual facts.
I did that a few hours ago, narrowly avoided an FSB death squad.
haha, I don't know what RT reported and why, but NYT saw the documents first and they always said 17k on the Russian side and 70k on the Ukrainian side. BBC counted burials in Russia and also found something like 20k. But yes you have to add LDNR and Wagner and prisoners and so on, and the severely wounded / half-dead.
Russian military deaths is about 20k, most of the recent deaths were Wagner/prisoners. 60k to 70k total Ukrainian deaths including territorial defense sound totally plausible. Obviously there are many more wounded and disabled.
The Russian military likes to throw Russian conscripts into LDNR formations where they are not counted as official RF deaths. So, OK, we can take the 20k official number of RF deaths (I think it is more) and then we have to add LDNR and Wagner and Kadyrov and some other mercenaries to get to a reasonable figure.
20k total doesn't pass the sniff test. Neither does 40k.
Also, many of the wounded will also die in the coming months and year. They are the walking dead. All wars have a portion of the wounded succumbing to injuries after hostilities have ended.
All these factors point to a much higher number.
I think that the 60-70k ukrainian deaths is too low. Closer to 100k at this point. The leak is at least a month old anyways and we may be seeing 200-300 dead a day now.
Prior to the leaks, the pipelines had not been operating. And German politicians were insisting they ‘would never’
Take my gas!
No!
Take it!
Never you bastard !
Take it!!!
No!!!
Boom!
Looks like it might be real... a zoomer military guy uploaded it to win an internet fight LOL. World of tanks tier
Claiming 6 to 1 casualty rate
"From where I am sitting, there is literally no new takeaway from this information at all. If anything, that is the one detail that lends the leak some credibility."
Yup: the leak makes a negative contribution, in that it undermines deniability of several assertions, and actually simplifies things. If that gets people thinking critically, great.
I put little stock in common sense: it's propagandists' fare. I'm omnivorous when it comes to data or rumor; it's all evidence of some sort, whether serious or frivolous. But I'm very frugal in drawing conclusions.
2D provides enough room to chase your tail.
So far America has shown remarkable restraint in boiling the Russian frog. For all intents and purposes, Putin is an American spy, but the Americans are still not taking any chances. This leak could have its aim in bolstering Russian morale to send more army to the useless Bakhmut meat grinder.
Hasn't Buttmutt been taken? Rolo stated the purpose of it is to grind down wagner. Funny how a PMC is one of russias best combat forces...
Umm, what's your point? Yes, Blackmutt is useless as a military objective, and yes, it has been used to demilitarise Russia.
Robot Frog is the worst spelling AI we ever saw.
Scamerika, land of the fraud, has sold its template to the world, worship war, wealth & embrace the reprobate spirit. Maybe the latest transgender trend is a preparatory ruse to get “ Big Mike” back into the Whitehouse ( a fourth Obama administration, Brandon being the 3rd)
As far as Chabas stuff goes take a look at “Noahide Law” & ask your self “ Why does every President have to meet a delegation of these strange cult figures & sign an agreement with them.
This may make you go AH-Hah”!
Ukraine ‘war’ is a lot like Coovid crap.
Scam for profit, big death count (mostly whitey’s you notice) offload some obsolete crap for huge money laundering. Wholesale fear, disinfo misinfo, propaganda, military secrecy, martial law ( or is it just “ rules based orders”) Tons of censorship, useful idiots, I investigated crimes, murders, plausible deniability by the bucketloads.
All is evil save thee & me, and sometimes I have reservations about thee.
In the search for truth we must accept we are not truth itself.
It is my duty to obfuscate the truth, the mortals cannot know shut it down. As above so below...
Then lets say that I agree with you.
Russia is losing the military war, IMO probably because Putin want to lose it if not they will have done what you have suggested : war economy.
Then could we get pragmatic?
What would be the consequences? Especially in matter of economics?
Thanks
I liked the theory that this is internal US politics, and the leak (whether real or fake) was done by the Pentagon to try to get out of the war in Ukraine, versus the American State Department, which is trying to escalate against Russia.
Maybe these leaked documents will provide the 'off-ramp' or 'exit-strategy' from Ukraine for the USA.
'Oops, what a pity our cunning plan was revealed; now we won't be able to support that Ukrainian offensive. BTW there's no more money or guns for you, sorry about that. Gotta catch that helicopter from the Embassy roof. Bye!'
I think the attempt to remove putin is about to go hot...
Nice post by Gion clarifying the difference between the original leaked document posted and the later NAFO fake version. Frankly the details in the original about NATO involvement and supply all seem about right and the figures for those killed also about right - bearing in mind that the Russian figures exclude the Donbass militias and Wagener who seem to have borne the brunt of the fighting in the past 8 months, and are probably close to the Russian KIA figure. We shall see if there are arrests for this either in Ukraine or USA - if not then the suspicion that its an inside US job (Like the Seymour Hersh leak) is more likely. In the latter case it might well come from the Obama crime family who lead the faction in the Democratic Party less enthusiastic about the direction the Biden crime family has been pushing - also of course wanting to discredit the Biden's subtly in order to clear the way for a presidential run by an Obama favourite - possibly even by Michelle herself, as Tucker Carlson has suggested at times. It could be the Russians of course but I'd rule them out - they lack the gumption, competence, subtlety, and connections to do this.
Gion reclarified and admitted that he got it wrong.
Unless I missed something the only thing he clarified was that the Russian KIA did not include the Donbass militias and Wagner group.
The current arrest in the USA of some poor bugger who will spend his life in prison for doing the public a service strengthens the case that the leak was genuine.
Of course that doesn't mean all the details were correct - US intelligence would be relying to some extent on what Ukrainians say for example. But it does suggest this was a genuine appraisal by US intelligence.
The only other likely possibility is that it is an elaborate disinformation attempt by US intelligence to mislead the Russians. That could be but seems unlikely .. they would have posted it more prominently and would be less likely to arrest someone for it. That's not entirely impossible but would be a bit too convoluted with too much room for error. All the US responses so far suggest its most likely to be genuine, so Gion did not get the basic idea wrong, just a minor detail.
"Alright I was wrong about the death figures: the original really said 40k Russian deaths (probably realistic in early 2023 if we include Wagner and militias) and 17k Ukrainian deaths (an obvious underestimate). Donbas Devushka or someone before them then photoshopped the numbers and even the NYT fell for it."
Seems you missed it.
OK I'll take another look.