The Long Checkmate: The Kremlin is Waiting For the West to Collapse

A response to WM Briggs' essay.

Every judo match begins and ends with a ritualized show of respect. It’s called, "Rei ni hajimari, rei ni owaru". I thought I’d extend the courtesy to WM Briggs, who posted an essay of a guest recently explaining that Putin’s plan is actually to play the long game and subtly use the West’s own momentum against it to judo-checkmate the globalists.

In other words, his thesis is that the Ukraine crisis is actually a trap for NATO to use up all their weapons, money, and moral clout, a kind of Slavic Afghanistan that will precipitate the collapse of the American empire eventually. I know this because a Stalker left a comment and a link on my blog asking me to share my thoughts on the essay.

Russia’s Patience, Russia’s Victory — Guest Post by Ianto Watt

Let me just be to the point and blunt: I don’t think that there is literally any evidence of any of this being true. However, I do not have any reason to suspect that Briggs is being insincere or being paid to spread ZAnon style propaganda. I think that what we might have here is a simple disagreement in opinion and that we ought to be able to debate the thesis cooly, clinically and respectfully.

I have nothing against Briggs personally, or the guy that he chose to repost, and he is not the first nor the last person to advance the “long checkmate” theory. As things continue to deteriorate for Russia, I suspect that this theory will be the new redoubt to which ZAnoners retreat next.

Regardless, I hope that Briggs will take the time to read what I wrote and engage with my critiques of the theory. It’s time to break the conspiracy of silence and start having the difficult talk.

So, with the perfunctory bow out of the way, let’s get our fists bloody.

WM Briggs:

The good news? The Empire is crumbling. The bad? It’s happening very slowly. Too slow for the impatient, that is. That group, of course, does not include Komrade Vlad. From his point of view, everything is right on schedule. The problem for most people is that they cannot imagine the vast scale (and timing) of this task.

Quite the assumption to make right off the bat. Extraordinary claims require at least some evidence, no? Perhaps we ought to start with speeches, statements, books, policy memos that indicate the existence of such a long-term Fabian strategy being employed by the Kremlin and then come to our conclusions, or not.

Otherwise, it is just conjecture, of course.

Also, I’m pretty sure that the people being addressed here are the vanishingly few pro-Russian people who are ZAnon skeptics i.e., people like myself that have lost faith in the Kremlin. There aren’t really that many of us, so I don’t know why we’re used as punching bags so often as if we’re some serious heresy movement or something. I’m the only Z-skeptic on this entire platform, for example, while there are many NAFO and ZAnoners here who are many orders of magnitude larger (and better paid) in contrast. Briggs doesn’t sound like he is trying to convince NAFO supporters of his arguments either. If anything, if there was a Putin plan to judo-checkmate the West, why would you want NAFO people to learn about it?

Wouldn’t that just be spoiling the trap?

That’s something worth considering: that the NAFO people don’t seem to be alarmed by the analyses of ZAnon, do they? NAFO propagandists are always looking to blow up and fan the narrative of a looming Russian threat. And yet, they never seem to notice these grand strategies being laid in secret, do they?

Curious.

And so, for Vlad, it’s good news and good news. Why? Because his task is what we call ‘controlled demolition’. Bring down the house, but don’t play Sampson. Do it from afar. A slice at a time. On every front. Like clockwork. Harness the Troika and stay in control. Slow is good, Komrade.

Most men do not see that every empire stands on three legs: Strength, Wealth and Belief. Vlad must file down each Western leg a notch at a time, all in sync. Grinding, not breaking. Very tricky work. Demands great precision, skill and nerve. Still, one may have all these traits, yet only succeed if supremely possessed (eh?) of the virtue of patience. In spades. I think I have accurately described him. Let us review.

It’s clear (to all who actually look) that Russia cannot lose the current shooting war. Why? Because she cannot afford to, that’s why. This is existential for her. And that’s apart from the obvious fact that she has at least a 10:1 advantage in everything that materially matters. Russian strength lies in her guns, ammo, factories, manpower, natural resources (of every kind) and finally, a thirty-year tech head-start. Courtesy of western Imperial hubris, convinced that they had actually beaten those cunning Greeks who seemingly disappeared from the shores of Troy in 1991. Now those Greco-Russian Orthodox are back, and it’s too late. They’re inside the gates, and Troy’s aflame.

OK so let’s just deal with this right away:

• Russia CAN lose the shooting war as evidenced by the fact that Russia lost several territories in this war already

• The Kremlin clearly doesn’t think this war is existential because they a) don’t bomb transport infrastructure in Ukraine b) transit gas and sell resources to NATO, still c) do not mobilize enough men d) do not target Kiev’s leaders e) talk about how moral they are for not fighting seriously f) continue extending the grain deal g) lost territories that they annexed and do not mention them anymore f) do not enforce red lines (like the raids into Belgorod) g) continue to ask for negotiations; preliminary talks have started and real talks are expected by the end of the end of this year

• What good is a 10:1 potential advantage when Russia refuses to commit superior manpower, resources, weapons to the fight now. Russia is fighting outnumbered against Ukraine, still, and is on the defensive as a result

• For thirty years, the Soviet legacy has been getting looted by both Ukraine and Russia by the subsequent governments. Shoigu is no better, and possibly worse, than his predecessor Serdyukov who looted so brazenly that even Putin was forced to fire him

• Where is the Trojan horse in this metaphor, I don’t get it.

We continue:

But the Imperial stool has three legs, as I said. Each must be leveled evenly. If any one leg disappears too quickly, the Emperor’s men may panic and hit the big red button. That’s not Vlad’s goal. No, he wants peace. On his terms, of course. And he wants a profitable victory at the same time. Which means he must move smoothly, even if it means appearing too slowly. All thing come to those who wait. And the wait’s not idle. No, the fog of war covers a lot of what’s happening at the other two legs. Let’s look at the other legs named Wealth and Belief.

I’ve written before about the concept of autarky. The self-sufficient nation. Only Russia can claim that title today. America could, if only we would. We have everything Russia has (proportionately), but only from a national perspective. But we cannot do this globally, supporting an empire. Empires exist through offense. Projecting force, globally. This is incredibly expensive. Someone has to pay for this. That would be our victims. All of whom are (or were) yoked to us by the petro-dollar. But that is changing, rapidly.

Russia certainly has the potential to be autarkic, but it definitely isn’t right now. Pretty much no one makes such a claim within Russia because all one has to do is go to the store to see nothing but Western and Chinese brands for sale. Russia has come up with clever ways to import Western brand goods through third-party countries, that’s all.

Mr. Slavsquat covered this all in depth already:

Russia's economic sovereignty: status update

And here:

Is Russia self-sufficient?

In short, the autarkic score card for Russia reads like what a bright but unmotivated student might bring back home from his teachers. In some areas, Russia has improved like in food security. In others, like electronics, Russia has completely dropped the ball. In still others like domestic manufacturing of, say, cars, the bottom has fallen out and the Russian government is adding fuel to the fire by sneaking in foreign imports through neutral countries for some reason despite plants shutting down. Also, unlike ZAnon, Riley actually provides data to back up his claim released by internal Russian sources and not op-eds by Western bloggers who claim to be able to see plans hidden within plans materializing in the noosphere.

Notice the lack of any actual links or data or Russian sources in the essay that I am critiquing and compare and contrast it to Riley’s meticulous source compilations.

Captive nations are restless and resentful. They see hope for a real jailbreak. They see Russia, and her jiu-jitsu President, successfully resisting Western economic blackmail.

Is Putin a Judo or Jiu-Jitsu master?

… Or is he a Jewdo and Jew-Jitsu master?

Eh? Anyone? See what I did there? Get the joke?

*cough*

Russia is actually prospering from foolish western sanctions. Forget all those statistics about the weakening Ruble. Remember, a weaker currency only hurts when you import goods. But if you are a net exporter, it is wonderful, as it allows you to capture global market share in whatever you are selling. Given that Russia sits on two-thirds of all natural resources, guess what they’re exporting? Everything. Guess who’s buying? Everyone. Except feckless America and her idiot Euro-dwarfs.

Don’t kid yourself. We’re still buying Russian oil, titanium, uranium, diamonds, gold, etc. in industrial quantities. We’re just doing it second hand. We’re buying it from middlemen, like India. Guess who’s making money from this? It ain’t us. And guess who is selling to China and India and Iran all those things (like cheap energy and raw materials) Europe used to buy directly from Russia? Right.

Right, so this isn’t a win though. Russia is supposedly in an existential war, and yet continues to export raw materials to the Anglo-Satanists that seek to destroy her. Is that a good thing? Why?

It seems to me that this is proof that the oligarchs are simply making a killing while the peasants are marched off to get their limbs blown off.

Also, about India. Here’s Riley again:

Russia's "de-dollarized trade" with India is a face-melting farce

In short: Russia’s arrangement with India is a total disaster. What is Russia even going to do with all those rupees? No one needs rupees, least of all Russia, who doesn’t need to buy anything from India.

And no, China isn’t supporting Russia’s war effort in any way shape or form.

In case you aren’t buying this version of reality, remember how China became rich at our expense. A weak currency. That (and the off-shoring of our factory base) fueled the creation of the largest export economy ever. In China. Bottom line, the crumbling of the western Wealth front is matching the collapse of our military Strength front. It’s not widely noticed because the smoke of the battlefield clouds the markets. What a coincidence, Komrade. How lucky is Vlad, right?

Right, except Western capital was flooding into China to make use of the slave labor that the Communists had prepared for them. Russia is not awash with capital nor are there billions of hungry workers in Russia ready to work for nothing to produce great wealth for Russian industrialists. Russia cannot be compared to China at all, economically. Furthermore, this is an attempt to explain away why the rouble’s value continuing to drop is actually a good thing, obviously.

But Putin, for years, used to harp on about how Russia’s rouble needed stability and praised the work of the Russian Central Bank in keeping things as they were. Once again, we see a clear disconnect with official statements and observable reality. We are told to simply trust in an invisible plan that we ourselves were too dumb and blind to be able to figure out and to not trust the evidence of our own lying eyeballs.

Last and most importantly, we must look at the third leg of the Imperial stool. The leg of Belief. The leg that actually is more important than the other two, from a survival perspective. No nation, regardless of her wealth or military might, can last indefinitely if her people lack belief. Belief in both their nation and their God. They are most powerful when they are hand-in-hand. And until recently, Russia lacked this requirement. Why? Because she had adopted a Western outlook. And no, this is not a recent thing. It began with Peter the Great, and his embrace of ‘modern’ European values. I say ‘modern’ because I distinguish (as Peter did) between medieval European Christendom and Enlightenment Europe in the late 1600’s. Peter fell in love with ‘things’. And Europe was where ‘things’ were designed and made.

Peter made every effort to change the mentality of Russia. Starting with the Church. And the new society, enumerated in the Table of Ranks (much like the Bolshevik Nomenklatura). He did it more ruthlessly than any Tsar before him. The Bolsheviks were merely his descendants. They were simply a continuation of his attempt to out-European the Europeans. He and his descendants tried this for over 300 years. Until Vlad said ‘basta’. Enough! Russia has now turned away from Europe (and us, by extension) when it became clear that nothing would ever induce us to allow Russia to join the ‘intellectual’ brotherhood of Enlightened Europe. And now, when these fools need Russia most, they have once again put a thumb in the Russian eye. But Russia will get her revenge. Let Europe eat cake. If they can bake it, Komrade.

This is actually all true. Peter “the Great” was also a Bacchist and brutally persecuted the Church, destroyed official genealogical histories and looted the country thoroughly from top to bottom. There are actually so many conspiracy theories surrounding Peter, that even I cannot make sense of them all.

The one I find the most convincing is that the Peter that returned from his great embassy to Western Europe was not the same one that left. For one thing, the doppelgänger forgot Russian, brutalized his wife, executed his son, grew an extra meter in height, hated Russia and made war on the historic Russia. Peter apologists claim that he was like a Stalin of his time, brutally enforcing his great love for the Russian people to “civilize” them, despite their selfish ingratitude.

Even TopWar mentioned it:

There are several trends in modern historiography besides the one that can be called official. One of these currents calls into question that history Russia, which began to form as a science during the era of the Romanovs. Supporters of this theory believe that the court historians of the Romanov dynasty "tried to wash out of history everything that belonged to the pre-Roman period." Moreover, the assessments of this point of view are opposite. Some consider the authors and propagandists of this idea not quite adequate people, others take their arguments seriously, drawing certain conclusions and trying to answer various historical questions in the “non-Roman” paradigm.

The channel "Chairman of SNT" presents another video with the author's interpretation of history. In this case, the author starts talking about the era of Peter the Great. The material itself is called "The Terrible Secret of Peter the Great."

The author believes that the "Romanov" historians for many years hid from the public the real truth about the history of the Fatherland.

The material contains historical rumors and what the author himself considers historical inconsistencies. The plot begins with the fact that the name Peter was atypical for the then Russian elites, and became the first for the Russian crowned heads. This is really so, but according to the same logic, “something is wrong” with Tsar Alexei Mikhailovich, because before him in Russia there were not many in the reign and in the kingdom with Alexei.

The author examines rumors in the plot that Peter could have been a substitute child from a German settlement, in which non-Russian roots eventually leapt, leading to reforms that "burned out everything Russian."

A plot from another story for discussion - with a version of Peter's substitution:

Let me know if you want to hear more about Russia’s conspiracy theory culture in the comments. If I get the Stalker’s blessing, I’d love to dive into this rich vein of lore.

Moving on.

So, Russia has turned inward, it would appear. But actually, it has turned to the East. As it always does in times of national peril. Most of which occurred at the hands of Europe. Swedes, Poles, Lithuanians, French, Austrians, Germans, you name it. Why Russia ever wanted to emulate her tormentors is a puzzle. But that time is over. Russia is not done with Europeans, as peers, however. She will soon be their master. They will beg her to do it. But she will bring some Eastern ways when she comes. (And she is not done with the East either).

Source? Proof? Citation?

I fail to see where this patriotic Kremlin government could have emerged from.

Let’s look at the timeline:

1. Bolshevik Revolution - 70 some years of a shtetl occupation government.

2. Andropov and Gorbachev and Primakov implement ‘Convergence’ and implode the USSR to begin merger with West

3. Yeltsin topples Gorbachev and speeds up the dismemberment of Russia, imposes total shtetl occupation government, again

4. Putin, friend of Kissinger, KGB colonel who served under Primakov, Andropov, protégée of Sobyanin (top gangster in St.p) and Yeltsin (top gangster in Moscow) is appointed next President

5. Kremlin spends next 14 years trying to be friends with the West as per Convergence agenda

6. …

7. Patriots are suddenly in control, total ZAnon victory over West imminent

I just don’t understand how the Z-timeline works.

When was the Long Checkmate planned and given the green light to be implemented?

At what point did Putin flip from being a spook, a Westernophile, a friend of Bush and Kissinger and the most pro-Israel president in Russia’s history to the patriot that he is now?

Why do I not know this part of the story? When will someone enlighten me?

When she comes, she will no longer have her inferiority complex in tow. Now she will come as the truly ‘enlightened’ ones. With a people whose ancient Slavic memory has been revived. And her pride renewed. Pride in nation, pride in Church. But, alas, as always in Russia, in that order.

Slavic nationalism is frowned on and used to be a criminal offense under law 282.

The Kremlin’s official stated policy is that they are at war with “nationalism” much like how America used to be at war with “terror”.

Literally talk to Russia’s nationalists and hear what they have to say about how the FSB treats them. There are no “Slavic nationalists” in any office anywhere in the Slavlands. Not even Belarus.

Lots of Zionists though, so that’s a nice runner-up prize.

Still, it is a remarkable recovery. By his skillful management of the battles in Ukraine, Vlad has shown his countrymen an overwhelming concern for their safety. Whether civilian or military, they understand his patient prosecution of the Special Military Operation. And they appreciate his ranking of safety over vengeance. They have responded in kind. The people are firmly behind him, as they flock to the enlistment centers.

Is Russia attritioning and grinding up the entire male population of Ukraine or are they being kind-hearted humanitarians in Ukraine?

ZAnon needs to make up his mind.

To sum it up, the westernized dilletantes have left, for Europe. The muzhiks are glad they’re gone. They’re glad Vlad is their patient but crafty leader. None of them flocked to the false flag Prigozhin raised in Rostov. (I believe he was operating with and not against Putin). Regardless, the effect is the same. No one joined ‘the revolt’. No one betrayed Russia. And now, Vlad has free rein to do whatever it takes ‘to win’.

Losing a million middle-class Russians is a blow any way that you spin it.

Also, if by “no one” you don’t count the army that stood aside because they hate Shoigu and all the elites who either fled Moscow or took boat rides without their phones like Simonyan of RT, then sure, “no one” indeed.

What does it take to win? I’ve already told you, you goose. Patience.

Be patient while the army continues to consume the entire Western armory (apart from their nukes) in the meatgrinder of the Donbass, while minimizing army casualties.

Both sides are taking heavy losses. Slavs are butchering each other and creating grudges that will last centuries. A giant demographic chasm yawns open to swallow up the Slavlands, just like the shtetl wanted all along.

Be patient while the Russian economy gains strength and size (and the West decays from her stupid sanctions).

Neoliberal austerity measures are still in place, no Keynesian war economy allowed.

Be patient while the Church and society revive with newfound pride and self-respect (and the West paints rainbows on everything, especially their children).

In a word, be patient while Vlad files down each leg of the Western Empire, in tandem, while building the new one that will replace it. Without a nuclear showdown.

After all, why waste men, money and morale on the West, when they are busy doing themselves in? Why waste it on the West, when Russia will need it in the East, when she takes on her real (and truly effective) enemy.

NATO is getting to kill Russians and Ukrainians for chump change. The Slavlands are bleeding out. Brother has been set against brother. This is the exact definition of “waste”.

Yes. That would be China. Then Vlad will do what Biden could not. That one, when it happens, will not need patience. Just nerves of steel. It will be over in a flash.

Welcome to Moscow, Komrade. The Third Rome. There will be no fourth.

So say the Patriarchs of Moscow.

Oremus.

Rousing stuff, folks. A nice religious message to end it on. Russia is the Third Rome therefore, their victory has been ordained by Jupiter and Jesus. Got it.

I actually have no problem with using religious programming to manipulate the peasants into rising up to resist social injustice. The key thesis of my book, which you should get, is that religious feeling is the trigger that Populists need to pull on to effectively resist the global oligarchy.

But notice the difference in the key takeaway. If my message is a call to arms, this message is the literal opposite, a snooze button on the alarm, encouraging readers to chuckle smugly, throw their feet up and then let out a long “Zzz”.

The key message as I understand it: everything is fine, trust the Putin, patriots are in control, tick-tock globalists, the storm is coming, continue passively consuming propaganda. WWG1WGA. #ZAnon

Not sure I can get behind that kind of programming.