Would be interesting to know if GRU has unfiltered access to Putin. If Putin cant be freaking bothered to get a damn Telegram account so he can actually follow whats happening at the front personally than he should at least ensure the pieces of paper he relies on at least come from more than one spook agency for Gods sake. Stalin at least talked on the phone personally with his front commanders. How the hell is it that Stalin in the 40s without Telegram and VK was more informed about what was happening with his Army than Putin in 2023 who not only has a phone but even the internet. Yet apparently he doesn't know sh1t. Would be so awesome if the spooks and generals were afraid of getting caught lying to the supreme commander like back in the day. Thats where I disagree with Rolo here a little bit. As of now I cant imagine anyone being worried about Putin catching them lying. I assume Putin knows FSB is lying, they know he knows, and they all know they are engaged in some stupid theater and going through the motions of running a war. Meanwhile above the Battalion level there is no actual planning or leadership of any consequence going on on the Russian side what so ever.
"It was the FSB who was in charge of planning the “Special Military Operation.”
I'm assuming the FSB is equivalent to the US national security state, so in effect the "apologist article" about Putin's Special Military Operation implies he's a more keen witted Biden. This contradicts the West's relentless propaganda about Putin being an almighty Hitler responsible for everything.
IMHO, you're placing too much faith in the military. The interesting starting point is to ask who is contending with whom? Such information would provide not only names but issues more specific than the broad categories like 'military', 'security', 'oligarchy', 'liberals'.
I looked for analogous detail during the Trump presidency, but it was difficult to tease out the palace politics. Only a few glimmers show through.
I think that Putin is much more street-wise than Trump. I'd expect him to have a better sense of political human nature, and indeed, he's demonstrated this by gaining a measure of control over the oligarchs, which Trump never came close to achieving. But without knowing more inside details, it's hard to appreciate the constraints in place and their power over Putin's operations.
> then in the USSR, the party, the secret police and the military in distant third place were the ruling coalition.
This is straight from Mihai Pacepa's books.
With the fall of Communism, powerful Party members fell in disgrace, while probably local governors and bureaucrats, black market crooks as well, in friendly terms with Yeltsin and also with connections abroad, took possession of real estate and Soviet industrial assets for peanuts, during the huge privatisation process that followed '91. That's my own interpretation of the events.
About either 1) Putin being a simpleton, subject to the mushroom crop treatment by the FSB ("keep them in the dark and feed them bullshit"), or instead 2) Putin showing 5D smartness while pretending to believe the crap that is allegedly being pushed to him, in order - I don't know? - to get things moving on the war front, while keeping a credibility escape route in case things go awry, ... I'll withhold my judgement.
It is difficult today not to view Putin a contemptable cowardly clown sitting at his absurd long table out of touch with the non-threat of the virus, the hopeless failure of the joke vaccines, listening to his handpicked jokers, picked to tell him only what he wants to hear, reading nonsensical reports, and hopelessly out of touch with events. Still one needs to give him what credit may be really due. His big accomplishment seems to have been keeping Russian wealth and resources largely (not entirely) in Russian hands. He can also make nice speeches (though they are probably Dugin's). His caution (almost always excessive) did help to stabilize the economy at a difficult time. And that seems to be that. He should have retired after one or two terms. Thank god he was not president when Georgia erupted and he couldn't turn that into a disaster, as he did in 2014 and 2020. He effectively abandoned Russians severed from their country after 1990 (with a few minor exceptions). Since about 2010 he has been a disastrous leader. Over cautious neoliberal economic policies slowed economic growth, kept Russia tied to Europe, and kept it dependent on raw materials production. Neglected the military, promoted on basis of loyalty not competence. As a wartime leader he must be one of the biggest disasters in all time, and that's takes some doing. As for his general, Surovikin, I know little about him, but I do not believe that any competent and confident general would ever accept an appointment where he is explicitly told not to win the war, and indeed not to do anything that might alarm the enemy and cause them to escalate. A general who would be forced to stand passively on the defense and cede all initiative to the enemy. Only a blockhead promoted for mindless obedience would accept such a command.
What chance is there of this turning out well? At present the best possible prospect seems to be Putin signing a humiliating status quo peace, which will then be comprehensively broken every way that suits the enemy. That's what he wants - and he won't allow anything better.
There might just be a faint very unlikely glimmer of hope. The faint possibility that some crazed Ukie sabotage unit manages to blow him up, and someone better takes over. Fires all the incompetents, mobilizes the economy, and starts a serious war with the actual intention of winning, and blows the bridges across the Dnieper. Do that and negotiations will follow, and if handled well allow Russia to gain the defensive perimeter of the Dnieper, a barrier strong enough to be defensible in the long war (fluctuating between cold and hot) with NATO that will follow. And it will badly need that easily defensible border in the south because there will be very long difficult borders around Belarus, the Baltics, and Finland which all be eventually militarized with US, Polish and other European troops and massive e armament buildups, and occasional outbreaks of fighting just to test the resilience of Russia's defenses. A decisive, determined Russian leader should already be preparing to seize the Baltics at the first opportunity (likely opportunity may arise if NATO make a incautious move on Kaliningrad) since that with the Dnieper would give Russia the best defensive perimeter against the West. That leaves Finland - a very long border, but supply constraints would make it a very difficult front for NATO and one where Russia would have big advantages in that respect.
Thanks Rollo - don't be too hard on the Russian system; it can't be anywhere near as toxic as USA/UK which as you say has gone global. How the hell we are going to unravel our lot without Eastasia rising to the rescue, I have no idea. Anyway, I'm banking on the BRICSxx, SCO etc.
thanks for the very informative and important article; i was unaware that Putin had a Praetorian Guard. by extension, it means that by keeping Putin (an avatar?) on a delay, he is unable to include the military, who has to do the dirty work, which places them in a vulnerable, perhaps untenable, position.
the spooks in the U.S. infiltrated NATO long ago, and with an actor (Bidet) now in place, are also calling the policy shots: spook-to-spook it has all become. constant escalation seems to have become the order of the day.
‘Tis in queer resonance with the latest from hon’ble Sgt Briggs ↓↓
🗨 Something always causes everything to happen, even if we can never know the cause in advance, or even after, as with quantum mechanics.[...E]ven very rare events always have causes, and often these causes can be known.
Would be interesting to know if GRU has unfiltered access to Putin. If Putin cant be freaking bothered to get a damn Telegram account so he can actually follow whats happening at the front personally than he should at least ensure the pieces of paper he relies on at least come from more than one spook agency for Gods sake. Stalin at least talked on the phone personally with his front commanders. How the hell is it that Stalin in the 40s without Telegram and VK was more informed about what was happening with his Army than Putin in 2023 who not only has a phone but even the internet. Yet apparently he doesn't know sh1t. Would be so awesome if the spooks and generals were afraid of getting caught lying to the supreme commander like back in the day. Thats where I disagree with Rolo here a little bit. As of now I cant imagine anyone being worried about Putin catching them lying. I assume Putin knows FSB is lying, they know he knows, and they all know they are engaged in some stupid theater and going through the motions of running a war. Meanwhile above the Battalion level there is no actual planning or leadership of any consequence going on on the Russian side what so ever.
"It was the FSB who was in charge of planning the “Special Military Operation.”
I'm assuming the FSB is equivalent to the US national security state, so in effect the "apologist article" about Putin's Special Military Operation implies he's a more keen witted Biden. This contradicts the West's relentless propaganda about Putin being an almighty Hitler responsible for everything.
IMHO, you're placing too much faith in the military. The interesting starting point is to ask who is contending with whom? Such information would provide not only names but issues more specific than the broad categories like 'military', 'security', 'oligarchy', 'liberals'.
I looked for analogous detail during the Trump presidency, but it was difficult to tease out the palace politics. Only a few glimmers show through.
I think that Putin is much more street-wise than Trump. I'd expect him to have a better sense of political human nature, and indeed, he's demonstrated this by gaining a measure of control over the oligarchs, which Trump never came close to achieving. But without knowing more inside details, it's hard to appreciate the constraints in place and their power over Putin's operations.
> then in the USSR, the party, the secret police and the military in distant third place were the ruling coalition.
This is straight from Mihai Pacepa's books.
With the fall of Communism, powerful Party members fell in disgrace, while probably local governors and bureaucrats, black market crooks as well, in friendly terms with Yeltsin and also with connections abroad, took possession of real estate and Soviet industrial assets for peanuts, during the huge privatisation process that followed '91. That's my own interpretation of the events.
About either 1) Putin being a simpleton, subject to the mushroom crop treatment by the FSB ("keep them in the dark and feed them bullshit"), or instead 2) Putin showing 5D smartness while pretending to believe the crap that is allegedly being pushed to him, in order - I don't know? - to get things moving on the war front, while keeping a credibility escape route in case things go awry, ... I'll withhold my judgement.
It is difficult today not to view Putin a contemptable cowardly clown sitting at his absurd long table out of touch with the non-threat of the virus, the hopeless failure of the joke vaccines, listening to his handpicked jokers, picked to tell him only what he wants to hear, reading nonsensical reports, and hopelessly out of touch with events. Still one needs to give him what credit may be really due. His big accomplishment seems to have been keeping Russian wealth and resources largely (not entirely) in Russian hands. He can also make nice speeches (though they are probably Dugin's). His caution (almost always excessive) did help to stabilize the economy at a difficult time. And that seems to be that. He should have retired after one or two terms. Thank god he was not president when Georgia erupted and he couldn't turn that into a disaster, as he did in 2014 and 2020. He effectively abandoned Russians severed from their country after 1990 (with a few minor exceptions). Since about 2010 he has been a disastrous leader. Over cautious neoliberal economic policies slowed economic growth, kept Russia tied to Europe, and kept it dependent on raw materials production. Neglected the military, promoted on basis of loyalty not competence. As a wartime leader he must be one of the biggest disasters in all time, and that's takes some doing. As for his general, Surovikin, I know little about him, but I do not believe that any competent and confident general would ever accept an appointment where he is explicitly told not to win the war, and indeed not to do anything that might alarm the enemy and cause them to escalate. A general who would be forced to stand passively on the defense and cede all initiative to the enemy. Only a blockhead promoted for mindless obedience would accept such a command.
What chance is there of this turning out well? At present the best possible prospect seems to be Putin signing a humiliating status quo peace, which will then be comprehensively broken every way that suits the enemy. That's what he wants - and he won't allow anything better.
There might just be a faint very unlikely glimmer of hope. The faint possibility that some crazed Ukie sabotage unit manages to blow him up, and someone better takes over. Fires all the incompetents, mobilizes the economy, and starts a serious war with the actual intention of winning, and blows the bridges across the Dnieper. Do that and negotiations will follow, and if handled well allow Russia to gain the defensive perimeter of the Dnieper, a barrier strong enough to be defensible in the long war (fluctuating between cold and hot) with NATO that will follow. And it will badly need that easily defensible border in the south because there will be very long difficult borders around Belarus, the Baltics, and Finland which all be eventually militarized with US, Polish and other European troops and massive e armament buildups, and occasional outbreaks of fighting just to test the resilience of Russia's defenses. A decisive, determined Russian leader should already be preparing to seize the Baltics at the first opportunity (likely opportunity may arise if NATO make a incautious move on Kaliningrad) since that with the Dnieper would give Russia the best defensive perimeter against the West. That leaves Finland - a very long border, but supply constraints would make it a very difficult front for NATO and one where Russia would have big advantages in that respect.
Snowden may be a good candidate.
Thanks Rollo - don't be too hard on the Russian system; it can't be anywhere near as toxic as USA/UK which as you say has gone global. How the hell we are going to unravel our lot without Eastasia rising to the rescue, I have no idea. Anyway, I'm banking on the BRICSxx, SCO etc.
https://www.truth11.com/untitled-628/?ref=Truth11.com-newsletter
I don't expect this to be an easy task, but necessary.
thanks for the very informative and important article; i was unaware that Putin had a Praetorian Guard. by extension, it means that by keeping Putin (an avatar?) on a delay, he is unable to include the military, who has to do the dirty work, which places them in a vulnerable, perhaps untenable, position.
the spooks in the U.S. infiltrated NATO long ago, and with an actor (Bidet) now in place, are also calling the policy shots: spook-to-spook it has all become. constant escalation seems to have become the order of the day.
If Putin is as isolated as claimed, then he MUST be suffering dementia, like Reagan did in his last year.
Strelkov said that some government officials are taking western bribes. We know this happened in 1991.
‘Tis in queer resonance with the latest from hon’ble Sgt Briggs ↓↓
🗨 Something always causes everything to happen, even if we can never know the cause in advance, or even after, as with quantum mechanics.[...E]ven very rare events always have causes, and often these causes can be known.
https://www.wmbriggs.com/post/44492/
smutne jest to, co napisałeś... No, chyba że automatyczna translacja (nie znam j. angielskiego) zmieniła sedno Twojego przekazu...