The Worst Case Scenario

Warlordism and strife

I wanted to start this post by linking to an interview that I watched recently of a very prominent doomer blogger on the Russian side named Andrei Morozov.

In the video he basically lays out the worst case scenario that he sees coming to pass in the near future.

• Ukrainians break through

• Negotiations from position of weakness for Russia

• Political instability at home

• Putsch against Putin

• Yet another time of turmoil ensues

Near the end of the video he talks about how important it is for Russians to start self-organizing. He brings up the example of how poorly the military provides the soldiers with necessary equipment and medical care and implores Russians to organize amongst themselves ahead of time to get the necessary training, treatment, and supplies instead of relying on the state.

He also says that, given the high chance of Putin being thrown to the wolves soon by his own oligarchs, the country will slip into chaos, and Russians will have to rely on themselves to fight their way out of the chaos.

I understand his views and mostly agree with his analysis.

But we are really getting ahead of ourselves. You have to understand the assumptions that the doomer analysts have made to be able to follow the thread of logic that gets them to this place. Most people are so many steps behind on the logic ladder and are so slow on the uptake, that what these Russians are talking about seems so totally bizarre and unrelated to reality that it has to simply be placed in the same mental box as the tone-dead anti-Russian #NAFO propaganda that they see online. But, instead of ignoring it, I offer my services in explaining this logic. Like many, I started out as an optimist, but began to lose faith as this war dragged on. Now, I totally understand the pessimist perspective and can share with you what informs their thinking and then let you decide for yourself whether it makes any sense or not.

The first assumption that is being made is that Russia is not killing 10x as many Ukrainians as they are losing. In other words, that the “attrition warfare” strategy is a myth, or, at least, it isn’t working. And if close to the same amount of Russians as Ukrainians are dying, then the sort of nonchalant optimism of many optimist analysts has to be discarded and hard questions have to be asked. I only get visceral anger from them when I ask questions. This is already a change from their usual nonchalant attitude. Doubt is beginning to creep in.

But while this is only the first step in these peoples’ thinking, it is still a step too far for the vast majority of Westerners following this conflict. I haven’t been able to budge people’s minds on this and I don’t see anyone else even trying in the English alt-media. So, with this impediment in mind, it becomes impossible for these people to follow along with the rest of what I am about to say. And, it will probably take another military loss by Russia for some of them to start rethinking their assumptions.

Bakhmut, we are told, is destroying the entire Ukrainian army (again). And yet, despite this, the CEO of Wagner is warning that Ukraine has massed a 200k army and a 40k strong breakthrough group. He also said that it is time to end the war.

“The ideal option is to announce the end of the NWO, to inform everyone that Russia has achieved the results that it planned, and in a sense, we really achieved them. We have ground a huge number of fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and we can report to ourselves that the tasks of the "SVO" have been completed, ” his press service quotes Prigozhin as saying.

According to him, Russia has already destroyed most of the active male population of Ukraine and intimidated another part of it, which has fled to Europe. “Russia cut off the Sea of ​​Azov and a large piece of the Black Sea, seized a fat piece of Ukrainian territory and created a land corridor to Crimea. Now there is only one thing left: to firmly gain a foothold, to dig into those territories that have already been taken,” concluded Prigozhin.

At the same time, Prigozhin believes that there is one problem that the military operation caused: “If before Ukraine was part of the former Russia, now it is an absolutely nation-oriented state.”

In other words, he admits that the special military operation was a failure and that Ukraine is now an Israel on Russia’s borders. Also, he is not telling the truth about the casualty figures. Hey, he’s not perfect.

Once you consider the possibility that the “attrition warfare” isn’t actually succeeding, you are left with the uncomfortable fact that Russia has only retreated over the last 6 months. And, if you consider the possibility that Ukraine has indeed raised a new army and now outnumbers Russia (again) all of a sudden you are confronted with the possibility that they might be the ones to go on the offensive. The only question then, is whether or not you think that the offensive will be successful or not.

I have yet to declare whether or not I believe that Ukraine will succeed in cutting off the land corridor to Crimea. This is not because I don’t have an opinion, but because I set some parameters for myself so that my prediction is based on some sound reasoning and not just some gut feeling. So, I am looking for worrying statements being made by Russian generals or officials about “hard decisions” and for better information on just how many troops Russia has in the south. But, as far as gut feelings go, well, I just look at how the war has been mismanaged so far, rumors of backroom deals and Ukraine’s string of successes and can’t help but feel that there is a distinct possibility that the attack will indeed succeed.

Now, if you have followed the logic so far, and accept that Russia has a distinct possibility of losing more significant battles in this war, you then have to ask yourself: what will the Kremlin do next? Prigozhin, like many others, is now hinting at backroom negotiations by the Russian Deep State (in the same interview above).

If, like the “pessimist” community has always said, Moscow doesn’t really want this Not-War and is looking for the exit, then the odds of them creating new armies, opening a war economy and putting competent people in charge seem slim. And, if the Kremlin continues to half-ass like they have done since the failure of the Kiev coup, then you have to consider the possibility that they would be happy to settle for some sort of frozen conflict and some negotiations as well (if they can even get them). This is not a far-fetched thesis, because, again, Russia’s army has largely just tried to consolidate and hold on to their spring and summer gains and hasn’t gone on any large big arrow offensives since then apart from Ugledar, which was a small disaster.

Actually, the best case scenario is some sort of frozen conflict worse, but the worst case scenario is Russia simply continuing to get pushed back and Crimea coming under siege. Nukes? Well, the West doesn’t believe that the Kremlin will use them, and I believe that they are right to think so. Russia has let every single red line be crossed, and so, there is little reason to believe that they are serious about using nukes.

So, between the two options, let us choose the worst case scenario again, and assume that 1) Russia is not succeeding with “attrition warfare” 2) the Ukrainians have massed a new army and a breakthrough force 3) they will be at least partially successful 4) the Kremlin won’t raise new armies and get serious about the war 5) they continue to lose territory and, finally 6) it becomes impossible to deny this reality at home.

The pessimists then assume that Putin’s popularity will plummet, and, the pressure on the Moscow elites from the West will become unbearable, forcing them to act and start either a putsch, or, start openly resisting Putin while calling for a peace platform.

This is where the country starts its descent into internal factional strife and the era of warlordism well and truly begins in Russia (again). This winter period of civilization is an era of warlordism where the old values and the ideological glue that holds society together begins to fall apart and the battle for the scraps begins in earnest. One could argue that this period has already occurred in Russia following the break-up of the USSR, and Putin and his clique, simply rose to the top temporarily. Now though, the next crop of warlords and oligarchs are getting ready for the next cycle of in-fighting.

And, despite Putin consolidating power somewhat, he has also presided over the proliferation of many fiefdoms and various private armies during his reign. Here, I don’t mean just Wagner, which is largely a GRU private army. There is also Gazprom’s private army. The “Orthodox Oligarch” Constantine Malofeev’s private army. Kadyrov’s private army. Shoigu has created a Tuvan militia. The LDNR militias which seem to operate in their own world. The FSB is also a de facto standing army and a state within a state with its own businesses, their own worldview and so on. Finally, there are the various ethnic mafias that are allowed to operate within Russia, of whom the Azerbaijanis are probably the most dangerous now. Also, the other oligarchs all have their own politicians and their own private security forces that are so large as to be considered private armies as well.

Should the current stabilnost’ start to wobble and fray, you already have all the necessary warlords in place to start fighting one another for dominance in the post-stabilnost’ period.

It won’t even be a loud descent into chaos, but, like in the case of the sudden spike in Muslim killings, a gradual and serious escalation of disorder and destruction both partially allowed by the Russian state and also the result of the increased fractionalization of Russia and the descent into warlordism.

And, as the state erodes, the resistance to America, which is well and truly in its “Global Empire” period, becomes more and more difficult. This is Washington’s plan, by the way. They are confident that they can fracture the power elite in Russia by putting pressure on the Moscow elite. They have done this rather clumsily so far, by painting a target on all Russians’ backs and thereby encouraging ordinary Russians to close ranks. But the threat to stabilnost’ does not come from the peasant masses, but the President’s network of oligarchs and spooks which maintain real power in the country.

Unlike Russia, America’s elite is consolidated and largely in lockstep. Both the GOP and the DNC are part of the Deep State and agree on just about everything from the systematic dismantling of the core ethnos of America (and the various satrapies) so that localized nationalist resistance to global empire becomes impossible and on their ideological insistence that the whole world start paying obeisance to the Rainbow Flag.

I don’t deny that America is facing many crises, but I also don’t see any organized internal resistance emerging within the American political system. Worse, America’s peasants believe that closing ranks and working together to fight their overlords is racist and immoral and against Yahweh’s dictates (here they are correct, actually). But mainly, the situation is so dire because, again, the elite in the West remain in lockstep, whereas the same cannot be said about Russia.

People will point out that China is a factor to be considered. Here, it is clear that America considers them a threat and is moving quickly to deal with the threat that China poses. The recent escalation over Taiwan is undeniable. I don’t pretend to know who will win out in the end, but I am not betting on China. My hope is that it leads to a mutual burnout, and a period of ahegemony and the rise of localized power centers - a truly multipolar, and bloody world.

I am fine with this dark scenario coming to pass and have made my peace with it. Naturally, I would prefer a period of national renewal instead, where Russia restores its sovereignty and returns to a traditional Authoritarian model where the Autark rules the state absolutely, and the peasants are left alone to live their lives, build their communities, in exchange for not causing trouble for the ruler.

But, alas.

I suppose joining some warlord’s private army is the second best scenario now.