7 Comments
User's avatar
rub's avatar

I remember when lysychansk fell rather than seize the initiative and chase Ukraine forces to overwhelm siversk he announced a pause in the war.

He was even shown congratulating the forces saying they needed a holiday, giving Ukraine time to fortify their positions in this area.

I thought it was weird to do that at the time even rather arrogant and lacking respect of an enemy that is actively trying to destroy you with help from an immensely more powerful enemy.

Of course, they never reached Siversk a crappy village of a thousand or two at best

In fact, the whole mission Russia has shown huge military incompetence and lack of awareness, here`s some: -

1 sailing their flagship main missile boat so close to enemy shoreline,

2. the astonishing dumbness in not sorting out short term military contracts situation causing the drop in manpower causing the fall of Kharkov region

3. Not mining or fortifying Kharkov region allowing the enemy to walk in with a few old tanks & ISIS like Toyotas

4. Driving around up in Nikolaev region & Kiev back in march diluting your forces when the main target is the Donbas which is being shelled at the time

5. Stupid 5d chess talk when its obvious to anyone with any intelligence your forces not getting anywhere

I heard Putin is not going to G20, which while wise from a safety perspective, again makes him look stupidly weak in front of the global south. No doubt green T shirt man will be there to promote the oil cap & persuade India & rest to dump Russia.

It’s a possibility you may see a weak Putin clinging onto power of a weakened Russia ending up like an isolated Russian Saddam Hussain, someone Russians will have to put up with for a decade or so prisoner of his situation. By which time Russians will be so fed up of all of it they`ll be a ripe for a US backed new Yeltsin.

Expand full comment
El dragon's avatar

The war of attrition is the name of the game. Not only against Ukraine, but the entire collective West, military and financial system. The optics sure look bad, but the Russians would never win an "optics war," as far as western propagandists in MSM, internet pro-Ukraine, paid or 'recreational' trolls are concerned.

The places like Bakhmuth is where the war is won. And the Russians are slowly and steadily winning where it matters. The Russians are s degrading the Ukraine’s infrastructure, soon making it unlivable place for millions of it's citizens, who will probably have to migrate to the Western Europe, further putting the strain on already financially troubled West. It doesn't appear so, for the uninformed or panic stricken, but it's all solid on the "Eastern Front."

Expand full comment
Frantic's avatar

> The places like Bakhmuth is where the war is won. And the Russians are slowly and steadily winning where it matters

Hello, "slowly" here is a crisp understatement.

Let's say that, during the last six months, continents have moved more - tectonically speaking - than frontlines on the outskirts of Bakhmut.

One gets the impression of a months-long steady advance through these mythical Bakhmut suburbs, which must be hugely sprawling. From what we can infer from reports, the place must sure be at least twice the size of Los Angeles.

Expand full comment
El dragon's avatar

Don't look at lines on maps. Look at the vector sum of losses on both sides and their ability to replace them. It's a war of attrition aimed at destroying Ukraine's military (demilitarization), not a war for territory (taking and holding cities at all costs).

Expand full comment
Frantic's avatar

"When the Russians advance in Bakhmut" is becoming proverbial, meaning "when the pigs may fly"

Expand full comment
The seventh collumn's avatar

Look at math 0 NATO losses xxx russian looses, and you say Rússia is winning the attriton war?

Get real...

Expand full comment
El dragon's avatar

What are the Russian losses, I am sure you 'know'. Better yet what are the Ukrainian losses? Stick with ISW.

Expand full comment