Trump Will Probably Send Tactical Nukes Over to Kiev

Hold on to your butts!

There is a consensus even among more grounded analysts that Ukraine is now falling behind Russia in terms of recruitment numbers and replacing casualties and is now losing the war. Most of the evidence for this is drawn up using Ukrainian or Western sources though. But as I have been at great pains to point out for years though, these sources have an incentive to lie and portray the Ukrainians as being in a more dire position than they really are. In fact, these sources of information fulfill a very important role in the information ecosystem because they constantly justify sending over more military aid to Kiev. If you read a lot of these pro-Ukraine but Kiev-critical accounts, they routinely overblow the military situation for Ukraine and have done so for years with an agenda in mind. Furthermore, they have routinely failed to predict UAF successes that have been achieved despite all the problems, real or imagined, that these analysts have highlighted.

Does Zelensky steal anywhere from 50-70% of the money sent over? Probably.

Are Ukrainian soldiers under-equipped and under-trained and given bad orders? Undoubtedly.

Have there been shortages of shells, anti-defense and tanks? Of course.

But this has not prevented the UAF from enjoying battlefield successes and achieving strategic objectives in the war to date. I am sure it has slowed them down, but even then, I routinely stress that it is political considerations that slow the UAF war effort down far more than that. NATO has jerked Kiev’s chain back from time to time and there are indeed rules that have been imposed on the conflict that have limited both Russia’s and Ukraine’s ability to wage war more effectively. Obviously, the rules placed on Russia are far more onerous, but that doesn’t mean that Kiev isn’t being artificially limited at times as well. Analysts who focus only on the military side of the equation (how many tanks, how far can missiles shoot, what the diameter measurements of barrels on cannons are) miss the bigger picture.

If you do not have a working model for the political backdoor dealings and a rough sketch of what the hidden rules for the conflict are, you simply won’t be able to make accurate predictions. There are too many examples of the political taking precedence over military realities to cite at this point.

I have been very suspicious of the pro-Ukrainian doomers who have claimed that the UAF war effort is on the brink of collapse for years now. Or that Trump will spell the end of Ukrainian independence. This is total nonsense and should have discredited them as thoroughly as any shrill ZAnoner that I routinely blast on this blog.

The fact of the matter is that I remain the only analyst/blogger/story-teller who relies on Russian sources of information. I continue to do so because they have proven to be far more accurate than NAFO triumphalists, Kiev-critical pro-Ukraine doomers or ZAnon triumphalists. The pro-Russian, Kremlin-critical camp simply has the best track record of accurate analysis, by far. I will check in on the other camps from time to time, but I always return to my bread and butter sources.

So, for example, we are being told that Ukrainian recruits are being rushed to the front with no preparation and that this explains their recent retreats in Donbass. But what about the other side of the equation? Does this mean that Russia is doing a better job with their cannon fodder? Of course not. Here is what I mean.

It's embarrassing to listen to Mr. Peskov. This is especially true of this statement:

"Hundreds of people sign contracts every day and go on a special military operation. First, they undergo training courses, they are carefully prepared (https://t.me/ramzayiegokomanda/18984)." [Peskov]

Mr. Peskov (https://t.me/regnum_na/65971) is obviously not aware that saying that new contract soldiers are "carefully prepared" is spreading nothing more than a fake news. And not just any fake, but about the affairs of the Russian Ministry of Defense, for which, in fact, a prison term is imposed. Well, of course, not for everyone, but only for "ordinary" people.

But Mr. Peskov or the Russian Ministry of Defense itself are not held to it, they can do this without hindrance. Well, in the most extreme case, they will send someone into retirement (https://t.me/milinfolive/135639).

[NOTE: They are referring to the recent forced retirement of Colonel General Gennady Anashkin who was accused of falsifying reports about Russian troop dispositions to the MoD, padding the numbers and making fake claims to improve the situation]

Let's pay attention: they won't shoot you, they won't demote you to the ranks, they won't even put you in jail for five years like a "common man" for a repost, but they'll politely send you into retirement - with the retention of all the benefits and privileges you've earned through hard work, as well as your apartments, cars and summer cottages.

It's clear that Mr. Peskov has no time to study the issue. And how can he study it, if the Ministry of Defense is almost a champion in fake news about the Ministry of Defense. But there are other sources of information! For example, social networks, which already have dozens, if not hundreds of stories like this one (https://t.me/ramzayiegokomanda/18984), which tells about a 48-year-old man who had never served in the army before, who died in his first battle - he was sent to storm 12 days after signing the contract. Where is the "thorough preparation" there?

How can Mr. Peskov say what he says after such stories? How will he be able to look into the eyes of the widows, mothers and children of those people about whom he speaks with satisfaction, who sign contracts by the hundreds every day and who are sent two weeks later without preparation to unprepared and unsupported "meat" assaults - senseless and merciless?

It is clear that Mr. Peskov has no time to read social networks. But he has an apparatus for this! Which, obviously, is engaged in misleading its leader. And Mr. Peskov, in turn, misleads not only the public, but also his leader. And his leader ... makes decisions based on all this lies.

And the worst thing is that Mr. Peskov is not the only one in the management apparatus like this. And if Mr. Peskov does not know what he is talking about, then the rest do not know either. If Mr. Peskov lies out of ignorance and misleads the leadership on "his" issues, then everyone else lies and misleads the leadership on all other issues. Just like in the famous fairy tale about the emperor with no clothes.

Does Mr. Peskov understand his responsibility? Or does he, like some generals, have no responsibility for anything - because he knows that if something happens - well, they will remove him from this position and send him to another, maybe even higher, and in the worst case - they will send him into retirement, naturally, with the preservation of everything he has acquired through backbreaking labor, including connections, positions and contracts for his wife and children, etc.

Isn't Mr. Peskov ashamed? No, it seems that in this whole story, only we are ashamed.

And what about the new super-missile. Ukrainian doomers are sounding the alarm! Putin’s secret weapon means that the situation for the war effort is now critical! On the brink of failure!

Meanwhile:

Satellite images of Yuzhmash before and after Oreshnik have appeared. Visually, the strike did not cause any damage at all, which is not surprising.

In fact, empty blanks without any warheads could not do anything. In response to the strikes of Storm Shadow and ATACMS, the ukrops got off with only a slight fright. What a disgrace!

And what about the disastrous UAF recruitment crisis? Well, Russian sources aren’t so optimistic about the news. Here:

Ukraine still seems to be managing to increase the size of its army a little. This conclusion can be drawn from the growth in military salaries. According to the Finance Ministry, they have been gradually increasing for the fourth month in a row and amounted to exactly 86 md hryvnias (approximately $2.1 billion) in October. This is a record amount for this year.

Compared to June (the month after which the growth in expenses began), the increase is 7.8%. Not too much. It should also be taken into account that these figures should have been affected by the introduction of additional payments for being on the contact line. And perhaps the number of Ukrainian military personnel directly participating in hostilities has also increased, and therefore receiving increased pay. Therefore, it is unlikely that the total number of Ukrainian armed formations has increased by more than 5% over the past 4 months.

Judging by the ongoing ferocity of the TCC, it is clear that the pace of replenishment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces still does not satisfy Kyiv. However, it is worth noting that in the near future the Ukrainian army may increase somewhat more than in recent months.

This is due to two circumstances: a decrease in the number of armored vehicles and a probable decrease in the intensity of military operations in the winter, thanks to which it will be easier for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to replenish losses.

Not to beat a dead horse with a stick, but ZAnon claimed that Ukraine had run out of men back in the fall of 2022 already. This is simply not true, obviously, since the war has continued for 2 years, with many UAF successes to show for it since.

These same people are claiming that Ukraine is suffering from a recruitment crisis and Russia is now beating them at the mobilization game. Claiming that this is the case justifies more aid and more efforts on the part of Zelensky to increase recruitment though. It also provides a good argument for sending over more NATO troops in the guise of mercenaries or as “instructors” who can guard territory and free up more UAF troops for the front.

Furthermore, there are still many exceptions to the draft in Ukraine for students, professionals, people with mild disabilities (bad back, shin splints, poor vision) and people who simply bribed their way out (the entire middle class). Everyone that I know in Ukraine from more or less well to do families has no real fear of being forcibly recruited as of yet. I personally know of a dozen young men who are still in Ukraine and continue on with their lives as if nothing is happening. Many are pro-Ukraine in their supposed ideological views, but not to the extent that they’re willing to go get their legs blown off or be forced to rub shoulders with the lower class rabble in the ranks. Simple math tells us that if there are 120-150K Ukrainian dead, that still leaves 5-6 million more in the recruitment pool.

And NATO countries can always just start deporting the young men who have fled there, which they’ve threatened to do, but haven’t still. There are many more diehard anti-Russian Ukrainians in places like Canada that can be incentivized to go over as well.

Is it harder to recruit men into the military now that the ranks of the volunteers and enthusiasts have dwindled and footage from the war has leaked out to the public revealing its horrors? Undoubtedly. But a military wage remains appealing to men who have no better prospects, and there are millions of men struggling to get by in Ukraine. Also, there are many more criminals that can be enlisted and sent to the front as well. Prison recruitment is a resource that hasn’t been tapped into to the same extent in Ukraine as it has been in Russia. Certainly, we don’t have anything comparable to the “Storm-Z” phenomenon yet. They only just passed legislation in May of this year to allow for a similar program to be implemented.

Changing gears, we also have reason to believe that Moscow will now simply start covering up the use of NATO weapons used in Russia. Moscow had already applied a soft censor on news about UAF strikes within Russia by simply not commenting on them on major information channels. You can still get the news from reading perfunctory TASS reports, but certainly you won’t have Channel 1 talking heads letting ordinary Russians know that depots and refineries and factories all over Russia have been going up in flames (from the debris, of course).

Here is an example of soft censorship:

Two Ukrainian missiles and 27 UAVs were shot down in the skies over Kursk Oblast, the governor reported.

This is the dry message in the official media. What kind of missiles were they? Atacamas? Old Soviet ones that the Ukrainian Armed Forces inherited? This is not reported.

If we admit that they were Atacamas, then we need to launch Oreshnik at NATO. Will they admit it? Will they launch it?

If Zelensky bombs Russia with NATO weapons again, but the Kremlin doesn’t notice it, did he really cross any red line at all? A question for the philosophers, I suppose. For his part, Zelensky has said (privately) that the attacks with NATO weapons will continue. It seems that he wasn’t deterred by the new Putin super-weapon at all.

Here:

⚡️⚡️⚡️#Insider

Our source in the OP said that Zelensky decided to continue launching missile strikes on Russian territory. Andriy Yermak agreed on the position with our partners, all decisions on strikes and targets are made in Kyiv, it was decided to ignore the Kremlin's threat to destroy the Ukrainian energy system.

We will know soon enough if Zelensky was deterred or whether or not he saw Putin’s reaction as weakness. But that’s not quite the right framing of the question actually. Obviously, it was a show of weakness by Putin. But the real question is whether Washington will jerk on Zelensky’s chain again. That is the only real “deterrent” that Kiev has ever faced. If I had to guess, I’d say “no”. The attacks will continue, of course. But Putin might suppress this information and punish those who speak out about the situation, which is what he has done the last couple of times.

Meanwhile, since the supply of missiles to Kiev went so well, the next step is to supply Kiev with tactical nukes. Here is some speculation on that front:

Well, comrades. It happened.

The West responded in its own way to the test of our ballistic missile at a target in Ukraine. Now the West is considering transferring tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine.

[NOTE: He is referring to a NYT piece in which the case for the supply of tactical nukes to Ukraine is made. I have not seen this article myself.]

And that means they will be transferred.

All the weapons that were initially discussed were eventually delivered to Ukraine. And they will be delivered.

I always said, in response to our calls to "let's hit the TNW", that as soon as we use TNW, the next day TNW will appear in Ukraine. Now, however, it is possible that Kiev will have TNW even before we use them.

Kiev will have TNW and long-range missiles. And Kiev will use all of this without a doubt. Zelensky has nothing to lose. For him, the worse the better.

A nuclear war awaits us.

Whether it will be limited to TNW and the territories of Ukraine and Russia - I don't know. Maybe yes. Maybe no.

Spend more time with your children and loved ones. Perhaps we all have very little time left.

Biden might indeed start considering the supply of tactical nukes to Kiev. In fact, I think that this will happen eventually 100%. I just don’t know if this is going to happen in the next two months or not. But Trump will simply pick up where Biden left off in terms of escalation because personel is policy.

And his cabinet is the most diehard war cabinet that we’ve ever seen in Washington since … ever? and they’ve already pledged to send more weapons to Ukraine.

With Gorka and others like him in power, I do think tactical nukes are now on the menu.

It is simply a matter of extrapolation, frankly.

People forget how far things have escalated in such a short time. NATO tanks, artillery, planes and missiles are now being used in Russia. NATO mercenaries have been found/killed in Kursk. There is really no argument that anyone can make to me at this point about red lines. Putin has not enforced any red lines and so all options are now on the table. What is up for debate is whether or not tactical nukes would be used.

Maybe their placement would be enough to get the unconditional surrender out of Putin that NATO wants to achieve.

We are rapidly approaching the point where we have to start speculating again about what NATO’s true goals for Putin’s Russia are to make any serious predictions.

Do they intend to dismember Russia and then transition the war into a civil war within Russia between, say, Tatarstan and the RF rump state down the line?

Or do they simply intend to depose Putin and his FSB and to give the oligarchs more power?

Is the point of this war to bring Moscow to heel and extract a firm commitment to fight China next?

I confess that I remain very much in the dark about the true motivation behind all of this unpleasantness. But the only way out of it for Russia remains the same: some brave patriots need to storm the silos and fire the nukes at NATO first. Either way, we are witnessing the unravelling of the Russian Federation in its current form. Putin is a constant of treachery and/or cowardice that we can assume will continue doing more of the same: nothing. The real question is what Washington’s real plans for Russia were this whole time.