Mar 5, 2023·edited Mar 5, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker
This attack on Vugledar just shows how weak and incompetent the regular Russian military has become. The attack plan itself was already bordering on criminal. Attacking a high rise fortress town that has been prepared for defense since 2014 on open fields that are mined with practicly no cover was bound to fail. All the Ukrainians had to do was send in some drones, watch how the Russians bumbled forwards in the minefields and once stuck use their highly precise western artillery systems and rounds to finish them off. Now this commander who launched this attack was Rustam Usmanovich Muradov, who Russian's call an Animal and a scumbag who does not care about his men. Now when this attack failed he send in another attack but just slightly on the flanks, and again the same predictable result happend. Now here comes the funny thing, a week ago this guy got promoted from Leutenant-General to Colonel-General for his failure to take Ugledar. Yes thats right, in the Russian army you can get promoted by failiure. To tell you the truth if it wasnt for Wagner putting on the pressure the Russian line would have collapsed already. The regular Russian army at this point is only good for holding the line, like Ukrainian territorial defense units. And i dont say Russian soldiers are cowards or incompetent, they are very brave but just like in WW2 they are being led to their slaughter by idiots and brutal commanders.
I’ve been wanting to write about this usmanovich but I figured it’s worth a paywall post. It is inconceivable that he was promoted. It’s sick. I have no words.
This guy is evidently a citizen of the Russian Federation, but not a Russian. His ancestry (Rustam, Osman, Murad) points to somewhere different his passport says. Obviously then he's not going to feel any empathy for his men.
LOL. You sound like one of the many commentators on Yahoo chat responding to a propaganda article from 'The Daily Beast'.
Let's see if I have this straight...you tell me. Russia has taken control of lands, according to the WAPO, worth 12 trillion. Has done so with casualty figures (all deaths are horrific) numbering, lets say 25K killed - the majority from the Wagners and the Donbass milities, and has done this with the backing of its opponent from the countries with the strongest militaries and economies in the world, putting everything possible into Russia's defeat, except direct kinetic fighting and you say Russia has "a weak and incompetent" army?
What do you imagine might have happened if when USA invaded Iraq (assuming twenty nations had pumped in billions in weapons and training to prepare the Iraqis for this invasion), that day one of the attack, those twenty nations with the strongest economies and militaries in the world, levied 14,000 sanctions against the US economy, had given Iraq every sort of weapon, flown their Awacs planes and satellite data to give Iraq real time strike coordinates, pumped in 100 billion (well, lets be honest, most of this money has been grafted away) and allowed some 5-10k trained mercenaries to wage war against American soldiers?
Weak and incompetent? USA got kicked out by a military (can we call the Taliban a military?) that wears sandals, backed by no one.
what are you even saying. your brain is pure kasha. i have nothing to add, you must be part polak, the stupid peasant blood coursing through your veins blinding you to common sense.
you are comparing a field trip to secure the poppy fields to this war? lol. The fact that Russia has to commit convicts as penal assault squads to advance tell you alot of the state of the Russian army. Because the Russian army has not been gaining or doing much after their 'withdrawels' from Kiev,Kharkov,Lyman and Kherson. Ah yes when they did attack they bumbled in the open mine fields in front of vuhledar and where easily picked of by Ukrainian artillery. You say that Russia conquered x amount of land worth $$$$$ but it only means something if the war is over and that is nowhere in sight. This land is basicly useless economicly if its still in range of Ukrainian himars and artillery. The fact remains that Russia has a Vietnam/Afghanistan on its border now. A trap set up by Nato and the US to weaken Russia. So far its working, and the US would have dropped a nuke a long time ago on Mexico if the Russians did the same thing. Putin and his commanders are weak and incompetent for getting playing by the west and launching suicidal attacks. I won't retract my words.
My friend, you are examining this conflict at the base level, try to see the larger picture. What brings wars to an end, generally? Exhaustion and the political blowback from the populace. How do you keep the blowback from occuring? You limit the deaths. How do you allow higher death counts without mothers and fathers storming the Kremlin? You use Mercenaries that are convicts and militias from Ukraine and Georgia. Do Russians much care that mercenary convicts have died? Do Russians much care that Ukrainian militias fighting for their lands end up dieing in the fight?
I think you know the answer to that.
Again, you make the assumption that this is a war by Russia against Ukraine. This is a war of Russia against The USA and its NATO vassal states with Ukraine being the scapegoat and excuse for both countries attacking the other in various forms.
You are right, I do not know how Russia will untie this gordion knot of Ukraine. It does appear that Russia fell into USA/NATO's trap. Since it is a trap, no doubt, what traps can Russia ensnare the west using the weaknesses of the west? Well, Russia is employing those now. These include Energy supplies, attrition of the enemy, exhaustion and loss of political will of USA and European countries and the biggest and boldest part: The Big FYOU to what mattters most to the empire - its unipolar empire and dollar hegemony.
Russia is taking away the USA's chance to seize control of the planet. That is one huge smack in the face to the empire.
I respect your analysis, I just think you are seeing Russia's success or failure as what happens soley on the Ukrainian battlefied.
Sorry Rolo boy, but Bakhmut is very important, it s the second line of defence for the AFU, 4 major highways go trought it, after that the ukranians have only the Slaviansk-Kramatorsk fortifications, and after that....? Empty fields all the way to Dnipro. To say that it s not important it s to be dishonest. It s one thing to fight în well fortified cities, another on empty fields. If it s not important why AFU are pouring brigade after brigade în that small city, just for show? That city has been fortified since 2015, you can t leave it as an unimportant location and then move on. It takes lot s of time to build concrete fortifications and time AFU doesn t have. As for Ugledar, you have a russian brigade(155th) versus 3 AFU brigades, 2 of them pulled from Kremanaya front, what happened after they were pulled from that front, the russian started to gain lots if ground, the ukranian defence has weakened there. It s surprises me that you say the russians don t have a plan but since the russian state didn t collapse after 14000 sanctions you must realise that the russian had a very good plan for the economy. For they have prepared the economy for shock and awe sanctions but not war. Neee don t buy it. I m not 5D chess copium bot but I know that the russians always have a plan, they didn t give the world the best chess players for nothing.
Selling raw resources to China was part of the plan. The 5D planning was to begin to remove the Russian financial system out from control, manipulation and interference of the west. That planning began years back. Is there much difference between selling oil to Germany 10-20% higher than to China? Where is the future, is it with vassal Europe or in the east?
If you are a corporation heavily in debt and your corporate shares held by outsiders, what does the corporation own or control? Nothing. At the whim of financial raiders, they get majority ownership, or an alliance of shareholders who take over the company, throw out the corporate execs and make the company their own.
Nation states are subject to the same financial raiders. Who does the hegemon make war against (no, not countries with autocratic leaders)? It makes war against ALL countries that resist against the financial raiders of the USA. The Russian balance sheet is one of the strongest in the world, backed by the wealth of natural resources. The 5D planning was to pivot out of the manipulation of the squids of the west's financial system.
This war is Russia (and now China) against the hegemon. Ukraine is the distraction and excuse that both sides will use to wage war on the other in some form or another.
I am sorry to offend you. I was just offering my opinions. I enjoy your opinions and your blog, but if my thoughts make you angry, I will visit no more.
Good luck with you blog and site. I wish you well.
You said that you root for the Motherland, then why don t you.....you know.....go to war? I don t want to say you are just a coward with a laptop and no skin in the game buuuuut.... Plus your blog started în march 2022. Is this your first blog or you just happened to discover that you have a gift for war analysis and intelectual masturbation?
Sorry but unlike you I don t have a direct line of contact with Putin. Meanwhile how many years have you served in the army, you do sound like a competent armchair Zukov.
You just sound like a troll now. Please stick to factual debate and stop the ad hominem shit. Have you read any of Prigozhin's or Strelkov's comments? Or are you going off unsourced claims from 5D bloggers and social media? Bakhmut is useless. Human wave attacks are the only way the Russians have advanced. You can read the actual accounts. Our host has provided those links.
What is the Russian "strategic" plan? The strategic plan is to retake all of the Donbass area Oblasts that have been annexed by Russia. Bahkmut is a heavily fortified city with multiple transportation routes -nodes that connect the Donbass regions together. Thus, by the very definition of the Russian stated goals and strategies, ALL of the areas with Ukrainian soldiers defending the newly annexed oblasts must be cleared of defenders.
But again, at what cost? Wagner used human wave and still has not completely taken the town. This has been ongoing for months. It has taken so long, no doubt the Ukrainians have dug in outside town. All I see is human sacrifice for little gain.
The cost? It could be extraordinarily high. What is the strategy? It is to remove all resistance fighters on Russian territory. Remember WWII costs paid by Russia?
Let me ask you. What are the costs to Russia over the next years and decades if It stalemates with USA/NATO and portions of its annexed territories end up like the Korean demilitarized zone? What are the costs to the leadership that ground up tens of thousands of soldiers and capitulated? What are the costs if USA and NATO now fully emboldened turn the stalemated front lines into the most heavily fortified region in the world full of NATO offensive weaponry? If USA gets the chance, it will put a thousand nukes on Ukraines borders with Russia.
Mar 5, 2023·edited Mar 5, 2023Liked by Rurik Skywalker
Bakhmut lost its strategic value to Kiev as soon as it came within range of Russian artillery.
It still has no significant strategic value to Russia, they have to push the AFU beyond their artillery range before that can happen.
There is no way not to paint Ugledar as a loss. Never mind the composition/size of the armies involved. A loss is loss is a loss.
While Russian commanders f**ked up, let it be a consolation that AFU commanders also f**k up a lot of times. Its a war after all, and in a war, you f**k up a lot. The difference between war and peace is that in war, when you f**k up, people die. In peace when you f**k up, you go bankrupt.
Only things which you control can have strategic value. Any loss of control means a loss of (strategic) value. It can have emotional value, or it can have future (expected) strategic value. But not actual real in-the-now strategic value.
What? no, Bahkmut has not lost its strategic value to Ukraine. It is a heavily fortified defense zone. What makes a solid defense position of no strategic value? Your definition of strategic means that whenever Russian artillery is in range the battle is lost.
By that definition, the USA should surrender to Russia because its submarine based hypersonic missiles are in range of most of the east and west coasts.
Bakhmut is a part of the huge interlocking urban fortress network that is Donetsk in general. Losing it will be a tactical blow to Ukraine on the Donetsk front. Strelkov and the critics acknowledge as much. But its not a strategic game changer. To the immediate West of Bakhmut you have chacov yar, Konstantanovka, Kramatorsk, and bunch of other urban centers that will have to be taken just like Bakhmut because they too have been fortified since 2015 and the fortification continues as we speak. The Donetsk front is basically an enormous network of forts and taking any one peice doesn't translate into a game changing victory. It just means another down x to go.
That's why hitting the network head on is so ridiculous. Thats also why Ugledar is an important town. If Ugledar had fallen hypothetically if MoD was competent and the Russian arny capable of such maneuvers the AFU in the South West corner of this sprawling network would have been vulnerable to encirclement. Much better to encircle than keep punching through a wall. Than another wall. Than another wall until your hand is totally broken.
The Russians have walked right into trap after trap. From the 2014 coup, to the Minsk accords which gave Ukraine 8 years to prepare,build forts and train their army. To attacking the most fortified part of the front head on. The original plan was to just encircle it with the Mariupol and Kharkov pincers. Again this shows the incompetence of the Russian command. Ukrainian army in Donetsk is basicly a super defensive army group and Bakhmut is just the 2nd defensive line, behind it is the 3rd and main defensive belt. It will probably take another year to crack it. Meanwhile Ukraine is building 2 mobile army corps behind the frontlines which will get all western army toys and the newest artillery systems, which are superior in range and accuracy to the Russian ones. With this force they will try another Balaklaia towards Mariupol and cut the Crimean land corridor. If this happends the Russians are finished.
LOL. Well, USA walked right into Bid Laden's trap and more than twenty years later has wasted 4-6 trillion fighting pointless wars in the middle east, destroying the lives of tens of thousands of Americans and bankrupting the empire.
The Iraq insurgency against the US/UK totally exposed the US military as a paper tiger unable to maintain large scale ground operations, they only managed to buy a little peace in 2007/08 by paying off half the Sunni insurgents in secret deals (secret then) done in Jordan. But it could not save the occupation, which was meant to be permanent & a base for attack on Iran. The US defeat in Iraq literally began the unravelling of the empire & it is one of the reasons the US can not fight a war with Russia directly, on the ground, soldier to soldier, in an official capacity.
Rolo - you actually watch the Duran? You must have a superhumanly strong stomach if you can watch more than 5 minutes. Yes, I get that you really don't, only so much as to see where the mass delusional psychosis originates - I just needed my biweekly to everyotherday fix of sarcastic put down medicine which is futile but .. . I would enjoy going further with a humorous ridicule of one of those two particularly, but it wouldn't be very nice at all.
The recent Battle of Ugledar shows there is a stalemate. Russia fumbled a great opportunity last year. Both sides are well dug-in. Time for a cease-fire.
A cease-fire is hard to get because NATO will likely continue lobbing drones across the border and cross border raids. This is because Russia keeps getting hammered and NATO is untouched. This is what provoked Russia to begin with, mortars sent into Donetsk.
Dmitri Trenin said Russia might try to get NATO to back off by launching one nuke into NATO territory. The only other alternatives is a Russian full scale war economy or discount supplies from China. Neither is likely.
Although there is now a segment of Congress and DeSantis that wants to lessen free supplies to the Ukraine, I do not see them being able to succeed. Money keeps going to the Ukraine.
And for predictions I can't see a Kiev attack breaking through in the South,. If anything we've been told about the militaries is true it would be suicidal, surely? 'Punch through' sounds good and is good if you're going somewhere that helps. They'd be punching through to nothing. There's no helping army waiting for them there.
And they would have the enemy at each side of them. Goddam. Isn't it basic and simple? And the closer they got to the coast the closer they'd be to Allied warships and their weaponry.
Close off their track behind them and they're in a cauldron.
What's the military doctrine for 'punching through' maintaining ground, supply logistics?
What's the forward plan? Got two fronts now. Going to attack both East and West?
An army that's supposedly flat our supporting its current front line?
And alright, the precision targeting of power hasn't hurt the Kiev military machine. Well why not? That would be very interesting to know.
And it all the time remains - the question of when is Russia going to get half way serious?
I mean threaten Kiev: simply declare the dam will go - the very threat would probably empty the town.
Precision target - remember all the power station precision demonstrations of ability - why aren't access roads /railways to Ukraine blocked permanently?
To do advances and wage war on a country like Ukraine against a well prepared army you need like 1-2 million men like the Germany Wehrmacht had in 1941. You have to push everywhere , attack in multiple directions so that you can outflank the enemy on a broad front whichRussia failed to do this in the opening phase and are now stuck in the WW1 scenario. Which mean alot of Ukrainian are Russia blood will be spilled. The one who endures the most wins. But this war can now last another 8 years. In the end it might just be another staged show because this invasion happend right when the covid scamdemic ended.
Yes, I feel the same way: that it could be a 'staged' operation. Incredible though the idea is we live in a time where the incredible becomes the normal.
I guess Kiev doesn't have a 'well prepared army' so we might not need millions. But then again the Allies don't need Kiev Ukraine, either. There is no need for it. A waste of time and money and men bothering to conquer it.
The truth might be somewhere in between. It is not wholly 'staged' but it is not wholly 'real' either.
And why not?
Because the 'real' war or the 'metawar' is the war against American Imperalist Dollar Hegemony to use the most fancy long winded phrase I've ever used in my life.
But that's it: The world is hamstrung by the petrodollar on the one hand and the threats of violence from America on the other. Be it 'gentle' violence like sanctions, crippling Cuba, for instance, for decades now, or harsh violence like Iraq where a country gets destroyed.
That is what Russia is revolting against here.
THAT was behind the creep of NATO ever closer to Russia. THAT was/is behind every renege on every agreement.
America was firmly against Russia before WWII even ended. But that was just a symptom. America is actually against the whole world.
America believes the only way to keep America UP is to keep the rest of the world DOWN.
This mindset, this implacable force, was in action in Europe from WWII and was given expression with respect to Russia.
To Russia it was quite plain for they didn't have a shallow short term view of things. They saw clearly the long distance plan and they saw clearly the happenings of the day. Didn't they? Don't they?
It is part of the incredible madness of today that our people still don't see America's wicked crushing of all and sundry even after Iraq has been crushed, Libya has been crushed, Syria all but crushed and occupied by an illegal army to this very day calmly stealing their oil!
It is staggeringly incomprehensible but the public STILL don't see what the USA is.
But Russia does.
America began to make its move on Russia way back and it gather pace and direction until it was very clear.
So it was/is American hegemony total, uncontested or not?
And Russia, alone in the world, in the western world at least, in Europe, decided to contest it and that's what Russia is doing.
So the 'real' war is there. On the global stage. With all those global 'theatres of war' or 'battlegrounds'.
They are, of course things like Trade and Economics and Agreements, Sanctions, Alliances and such.
And Putin has been fighting that war since before this began and he's done an incredibly good job apparently just about single handedly. Or we don't get to hear about the team if there is one and you'd think there must be. We hear of Lavrov and Zakharova is all.
But he has managed to find customers to continue the nation's oil trade, hence keeping the whole place afloat. He has managed to outmanoeuvre their finance/currency blocks in order that trade might persist. He has even built a tanker fleet. He has forged alliances that now are on the verge of having enough confidence in the outcome that they will step forward and vow to supply Russia with manufactured goods even up to weapons if she asks.
He and his team have found sources for all critical materials and components the nation was supposed to be crippled for lack of, via sanctions. He has kept the confidence of his people. He has discovered his military was full of old Soviet era timeserving colonel blimps and even worse: downright crooks and a self serving bureaucracy actually within the Dept of Defence and the Army structure that was virtually crippling it - and he's deal with it on the fly...
Putin has now got Russia to where there exists in the world as a solid real fact an alternative to the American hegemon. You can now trade globally in other than American dollars. You can supply your nation with oil in other than American dollars. You don't have to pay rent to the Americans - buy their dollars at an inflated price just so you can buy oil - you can now buy oil directly in your own currency at the recognised exchange rate. This brings actual immediate cash benefit to the countries in question.
Alliances and cooperations are being forged that America would have forbidden.
For America simply seeks to forbid everything and anything. America seeks to stifle, hamstring, kill the world. Incredible though it sounds, just look around.
So while all THAT is being forged the actual battleground of Ukraine IS a 'sideshow', a theatre where the two sides show each other that they are serious and they are capable.
In Ukraine Russia demonstrates not that it can 'conquer' Ukraine, which it has no desire to do and doesn't really matter either way in context of a global war about American hegemony but that it can supply and operate an armed force comfortably even when supposedly stifled and smothered and deprived of oxygen by the full weight of America's smothering asphyxiating sanctions.
America the professional assassin said we'll choke you to death, strangle you. At long distance. Via our instructions to our lapdogs. And they issued the instructions and the choking began.
And Russia shrugged it off. Russia didn't choke. Russia is breathing easier than the whole of the West.
THIS is the real war and this is a massive victory. Massive.
It gives courage and hope and new directions to the whole 'Rest of the World' (RoW).
India, China, Africa, South America, Asia - the whole world smarting from subjection to the American killing machine now takes heart.
Proving their strength the Russians don't even take the bait and do either of those two self defeating stupid things the Americans would have them do:
. Spend billions and thousands of lives trying to conquer the whole of the Ukrainian territory.
. Go mad, go 'American' and start an all-out war on Kiev Ukraine and bomb civilians.
America will collapse on its own, from within. Reason? Because it has become a multicultural shithole, without morals and it promotes degenaracy all over the world. They are demolishing their own statues of their heroes. Hell even Goebbels said that America is the most easy to conquer because blacks and whites living together is bound to go wrong. I think a massive race war is already in the making and that will be the death knell for Americans and their evil empire. They are already decaying at a rapid pace and instead of going down queitly it wants to cause as much chaos and destruction in the world. Russia did play some cards right but dealing with the devil never works. All i am saying is that they are in alot of trouble by stepping foot in the swamp that is Ukraine, every day Russians men are dying in this war which further weakens the nation. China and the US are just spectators ready to pick up the pieces. If Putin was so smart he should have invaded in 2014 when the Ukrainian army was a disorganised joke.
Yep. Lot of truth in what you say. But how and when it will all work out is almost impossible to predict, I think. It is noticeable that the American people have been totally absent since at least WWII. Now we have internet, computers, smartphone in every pocket. That makes 'the people' a very different thing to when 'the people' were a mass of uneducated people without access to information or calculating power, without any ability to broadcast to each other, without the ability to talk any one of them to any other one at any time all around the globe.
That's a very different population.
Now if they suddenly get onboard and start taking an interest then the global political dynamics could suddenly change dramatically.
Yep, Russia has a big problem right now, for sure. But the problem is not the fight in Ukraine. That's just a small symptom of it. The problem is fighting back against the American murderous hegemony isn't it?
And THAT fight had to come and I'm sure Putin at least knew that. And in that case really the sooner the better. Like while America only thinks it is prepared but is not.
on what timetable do you demand that Russia accomplish this? What is the Rolo Slavskiy criteria where you feel satisfied that Russia has "won" in Ukraine, not made any miltiary mistakes and has vanquished the west?
Where do you live in Russia? What are your Russian neighbors feelings on this?
Hmmm, what is the Russian strategic plan? Well, pretty simple from what we know. Russia annexed four Oblasts and Russia intends to fully demilitarize the newly annexed Oblasts of Ukrainian Defenders. Bahkmut is a key city as it has major transportation nodes and is heavily fortified.
Thus, by the very definition of the highest level strategic plans, removing all Ukrainian defenders from Bahkmut and every other city with Ukrainian soldiers within Russian territory must be contested.
Will the fall of Bahkmut mean that the Russians advance immediately to the Dnieper? Irrelevant. What is relevant is what actions Russia must take to remove all UKR fighers from the Donbass oblasts.
Are Russians dying in higher numbers than stated? Irrelevant. Do Russian tactics suck at times leading to heavy causalties? Irrelevant. Nothing is relevant except as to what contributes to the ultimate primary strategy of clearing all UKR fighters from the four annexed oblasts.
If USA were in a similar ground war, there would be fuck ups of every sort, thousands killed from crap military leaders pushing crap tactics, friendly fire deaths. Nothing that is happening to the Russians or Ukrainians would be spared ANY army fighting in similar circumstances.
Ugledar is actually a fairly important town. If it falls the Russians would have a clear shot at hitting the AFU grouping in Marinka in the rear. Theres no big urban conglomerates or even fortress belts between Ugledar and Marinka on that South to North access. Its not at all like the Donetsk front where its just defensive belt after defensive belt and urban cluster after urban cluster.
That's probably why the Ukrainians acted so swiftly and decisively to not just contain but beat back the Russian attack. Of course even if MoD had made a breakthrough I assume they would have figured out someway to not make it to Marinka and squander the opportunity.
According to Strelkov, Murz, and well basically everyone comms is basically non existent between units even at the platoon level. Given that its crazy just how far Russia got in the 1st few weeks of the war. I would be very interested in knowing if Wagner has some different kind of communications scheme than MoD. I mean theres no way an operation like storming Ugledar is going to be anything other than a shit show when even platoons cant keep in touch. But Wagner is by all appearances fairly well coordinated, at Soledar they pulled off a pretty fast encirclement of the Ukrainians in the city proper. Their assault leaders can call for mortar or artillery fire directly which makes their fire more effective, MoD units cant. This was chalked up to MoD beuracracy before but it actually looks like a comms issue. Smaller MoD units just cant call the artillery directly.
This dude here is a very rare neo-nazi who is fighting for the Russian side:
Naturally Rusich gave him a recommend. In that short interview he says Russian commanders these days are absolutely nothing like old school ones. Like you could tell Suvorov to take what was literally the strongest fortress on earth and next time you heard from him he was when he sent you the letter that its fallen. He says commanders these days actually outright expect to be micromanaged.
Interestingly he says there isnt much shell hunger and that the front right now has more or less has what it needs. However he mentions that might not be true for everyone and that some units might have hunger not because of MoD but because of incompetent leaders not ensuring their guys are supplied. No Prigozhin screaming for ammo. That ties in to commanders actually preferring to be micromanaged. Timid commanders arent going to be proactive. If true I guess its good that there is actually ammo to be had but its also very bad because it means the rot has reached even mid level commanders.
The most interesting thing that had me face palming and confirmed all ive heard from Strelkov and Murz was that according to him if you want to know what company or battalion is next to yours you have to send a guy to go talk to them. Just Lord have mercy.
Dat hyper post modern space age World war one style battle.
Honestly it’s possible that a lot of competent officers were killed off already because they were contraktniki and the kremlins didn’t want to use mobiki in early days.
The good news is past Ugledar there is open plains somewhat. The bad news is Ugledar is surrounded by plains. Apparently the town is nothing but commieblocks. It's a tough nut to crack. I'm just still surprised at how much the Russians are struggling at the tactical level. I hate to say it but places like Ugledar are tailor made for a thermobaric or tac nuke if one really cared about saving lives that is.
Well yes, you beauty. Seems to promise what I've been looking for. Real reporting of what really matters. Is there going to be more of it? Where else other than here can I find it? What does '5D people' mean?
What does 'not enough men and supplies' mean? Not enough in Ugledar or not enough all throughout the conflict zone?
This post to me hints at a lot but doesn't spell it out.
This attack on Vugledar just shows how weak and incompetent the regular Russian military has become. The attack plan itself was already bordering on criminal. Attacking a high rise fortress town that has been prepared for defense since 2014 on open fields that are mined with practicly no cover was bound to fail. All the Ukrainians had to do was send in some drones, watch how the Russians bumbled forwards in the minefields and once stuck use their highly precise western artillery systems and rounds to finish them off. Now this commander who launched this attack was Rustam Usmanovich Muradov, who Russian's call an Animal and a scumbag who does not care about his men. Now when this attack failed he send in another attack but just slightly on the flanks, and again the same predictable result happend. Now here comes the funny thing, a week ago this guy got promoted from Leutenant-General to Colonel-General for his failure to take Ugledar. Yes thats right, in the Russian army you can get promoted by failiure. To tell you the truth if it wasnt for Wagner putting on the pressure the Russian line would have collapsed already. The regular Russian army at this point is only good for holding the line, like Ukrainian territorial defense units. And i dont say Russian soldiers are cowards or incompetent, they are very brave but just like in WW2 they are being led to their slaughter by idiots and brutal commanders.
I’ve been wanting to write about this usmanovich but I figured it’s worth a paywall post. It is inconceivable that he was promoted. It’s sick. I have no words.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1628861508628217856 look at the date...
This guy is evidently a citizen of the Russian Federation, but not a Russian. His ancestry (Rustam, Osman, Murad) points to somewhere different his passport says. Obviously then he's not going to feel any empathy for his men.
what does he care about the dead slavs under his dominion.
sick.
chechnya 2.0.
LOL. You sound like one of the many commentators on Yahoo chat responding to a propaganda article from 'The Daily Beast'.
Let's see if I have this straight...you tell me. Russia has taken control of lands, according to the WAPO, worth 12 trillion. Has done so with casualty figures (all deaths are horrific) numbering, lets say 25K killed - the majority from the Wagners and the Donbass milities, and has done this with the backing of its opponent from the countries with the strongest militaries and economies in the world, putting everything possible into Russia's defeat, except direct kinetic fighting and you say Russia has "a weak and incompetent" army?
What do you imagine might have happened if when USA invaded Iraq (assuming twenty nations had pumped in billions in weapons and training to prepare the Iraqis for this invasion), that day one of the attack, those twenty nations with the strongest economies and militaries in the world, levied 14,000 sanctions against the US economy, had given Iraq every sort of weapon, flown their Awacs planes and satellite data to give Iraq real time strike coordinates, pumped in 100 billion (well, lets be honest, most of this money has been grafted away) and allowed some 5-10k trained mercenaries to wage war against American soldiers?
Weak and incompetent? USA got kicked out by a military (can we call the Taliban a military?) that wears sandals, backed by no one.
what are you even saying. your brain is pure kasha. i have nothing to add, you must be part polak, the stupid peasant blood coursing through your veins blinding you to common sense.
" you must be part polak, the stupid peasant blood coursing through your veins "
Interesting way to promote Slavic brotherhood.
you are comparing a field trip to secure the poppy fields to this war? lol. The fact that Russia has to commit convicts as penal assault squads to advance tell you alot of the state of the Russian army. Because the Russian army has not been gaining or doing much after their 'withdrawels' from Kiev,Kharkov,Lyman and Kherson. Ah yes when they did attack they bumbled in the open mine fields in front of vuhledar and where easily picked of by Ukrainian artillery. You say that Russia conquered x amount of land worth $$$$$ but it only means something if the war is over and that is nowhere in sight. This land is basicly useless economicly if its still in range of Ukrainian himars and artillery. The fact remains that Russia has a Vietnam/Afghanistan on its border now. A trap set up by Nato and the US to weaken Russia. So far its working, and the US would have dropped a nuke a long time ago on Mexico if the Russians did the same thing. Putin and his commanders are weak and incompetent for getting playing by the west and launching suicidal attacks. I won't retract my words.
My friend, you are examining this conflict at the base level, try to see the larger picture. What brings wars to an end, generally? Exhaustion and the political blowback from the populace. How do you keep the blowback from occuring? You limit the deaths. How do you allow higher death counts without mothers and fathers storming the Kremlin? You use Mercenaries that are convicts and militias from Ukraine and Georgia. Do Russians much care that mercenary convicts have died? Do Russians much care that Ukrainian militias fighting for their lands end up dieing in the fight?
I think you know the answer to that.
Again, you make the assumption that this is a war by Russia against Ukraine. This is a war of Russia against The USA and its NATO vassal states with Ukraine being the scapegoat and excuse for both countries attacking the other in various forms.
You are right, I do not know how Russia will untie this gordion knot of Ukraine. It does appear that Russia fell into USA/NATO's trap. Since it is a trap, no doubt, what traps can Russia ensnare the west using the weaknesses of the west? Well, Russia is employing those now. These include Energy supplies, attrition of the enemy, exhaustion and loss of political will of USA and European countries and the biggest and boldest part: The Big FYOU to what mattters most to the empire - its unipolar empire and dollar hegemony.
Russia is taking away the USA's chance to seize control of the planet. That is one huge smack in the face to the empire.
I respect your analysis, I just think you are seeing Russia's success or failure as what happens soley on the Ukrainian battlefied.
Sorry Rolo boy, but Bakhmut is very important, it s the second line of defence for the AFU, 4 major highways go trought it, after that the ukranians have only the Slaviansk-Kramatorsk fortifications, and after that....? Empty fields all the way to Dnipro. To say that it s not important it s to be dishonest. It s one thing to fight în well fortified cities, another on empty fields. If it s not important why AFU are pouring brigade after brigade în that small city, just for show? That city has been fortified since 2015, you can t leave it as an unimportant location and then move on. It takes lot s of time to build concrete fortifications and time AFU doesn t have. As for Ugledar, you have a russian brigade(155th) versus 3 AFU brigades, 2 of them pulled from Kremanaya front, what happened after they were pulled from that front, the russian started to gain lots if ground, the ukranian defence has weakened there. It s surprises me that you say the russians don t have a plan but since the russian state didn t collapse after 14000 sanctions you must realise that the russian had a very good plan for the economy. For they have prepared the economy for shock and awe sanctions but not war. Neee don t buy it. I m not 5D chess copium bot but I know that the russians always have a plan, they didn t give the world the best chess players for nothing.
>For they have prepared the economy for shock and awe sanctions but not war.
selling raw resources to china on the cheap isn't a plan.
> I m not 5D chess copium bot but I know that the russians always have a plan, they didn t give the world the best chess players for nothing.
that's literally the definition of 5D but OK.
Selling raw resources to China was part of the plan. The 5D planning was to begin to remove the Russian financial system out from control, manipulation and interference of the west. That planning began years back. Is there much difference between selling oil to Germany 10-20% higher than to China? Where is the future, is it with vassal Europe or in the east?
If you are a corporation heavily in debt and your corporate shares held by outsiders, what does the corporation own or control? Nothing. At the whim of financial raiders, they get majority ownership, or an alliance of shareholders who take over the company, throw out the corporate execs and make the company their own.
Nation states are subject to the same financial raiders. Who does the hegemon make war against (no, not countries with autocratic leaders)? It makes war against ALL countries that resist against the financial raiders of the USA. The Russian balance sheet is one of the strongest in the world, backed by the wealth of natural resources. The 5D planning was to pivot out of the manipulation of the squids of the west's financial system.
This war is Russia (and now China) against the hegemon. Ukraine is the distraction and excuse that both sides will use to wage war on the other in some form or another.
god if i wasn't on substack i would drop so many n-bombs on you, you don't even know.
go back to orlov and saker. leave this sanctuary of sanity, you tromogladite.
I am sorry to offend you. I was just offering my opinions. I enjoy your opinions and your blog, but if my thoughts make you angry, I will visit no more.
Good luck with you blog and site. I wish you well.
You said that you root for the Motherland, then why don t you.....you know.....go to war? I don t want to say you are just a coward with a laptop and no skin in the game buuuuut.... Plus your blog started în march 2022. Is this your first blog or you just happened to discover that you have a gift for war analysis and intelectual masturbation?
this is too stupid to even reply to. are you a saker emigre
Sorry but unlike you I don t have a direct line of contact with Putin. Meanwhile how many years have you served in the army, you do sound like a competent armchair Zukov.
You just sound like a troll now. Please stick to factual debate and stop the ad hominem shit. Have you read any of Prigozhin's or Strelkov's comments? Or are you going off unsourced claims from 5D bloggers and social media? Bakhmut is useless. Human wave attacks are the only way the Russians have advanced. You can read the actual accounts. Our host has provided those links.
What is the Russian "strategic" plan? The strategic plan is to retake all of the Donbass area Oblasts that have been annexed by Russia. Bahkmut is a heavily fortified city with multiple transportation routes -nodes that connect the Donbass regions together. Thus, by the very definition of the Russian stated goals and strategies, ALL of the areas with Ukrainian soldiers defending the newly annexed oblasts must be cleared of defenders.
But again, at what cost? Wagner used human wave and still has not completely taken the town. This has been ongoing for months. It has taken so long, no doubt the Ukrainians have dug in outside town. All I see is human sacrifice for little gain.
The cost? It could be extraordinarily high. What is the strategy? It is to remove all resistance fighters on Russian territory. Remember WWII costs paid by Russia?
Let me ask you. What are the costs to Russia over the next years and decades if It stalemates with USA/NATO and portions of its annexed territories end up like the Korean demilitarized zone? What are the costs to the leadership that ground up tens of thousands of soldiers and capitulated? What are the costs if USA and NATO now fully emboldened turn the stalemated front lines into the most heavily fortified region in the world full of NATO offensive weaponry? If USA gets the chance, it will put a thousand nukes on Ukraines borders with Russia.
2 weeks
Bakhmut lost its strategic value to Kiev as soon as it came within range of Russian artillery.
It still has no significant strategic value to Russia, they have to push the AFU beyond their artillery range before that can happen.
There is no way not to paint Ugledar as a loss. Never mind the composition/size of the armies involved. A loss is loss is a loss.
While Russian commanders f**ked up, let it be a consolation that AFU commanders also f**k up a lot of times. Its a war after all, and in a war, you f**k up a lot. The difference between war and peace is that in war, when you f**k up, people die. In peace when you f**k up, you go bankrupt.
How do you know it lost it s strategic value to ukranians, did you talked to the the ukranian general staff? Their actions speak otherwise.
Only things which you control can have strategic value. Any loss of control means a loss of (strategic) value. It can have emotional value, or it can have future (expected) strategic value. But not actual real in-the-now strategic value.
What? no, Bahkmut has not lost its strategic value to Ukraine. It is a heavily fortified defense zone. What makes a solid defense position of no strategic value? Your definition of strategic means that whenever Russian artillery is in range the battle is lost.
By that definition, the USA should surrender to Russia because its submarine based hypersonic missiles are in range of most of the east and west coasts.
Bakhmut is a part of the huge interlocking urban fortress network that is Donetsk in general. Losing it will be a tactical blow to Ukraine on the Donetsk front. Strelkov and the critics acknowledge as much. But its not a strategic game changer. To the immediate West of Bakhmut you have chacov yar, Konstantanovka, Kramatorsk, and bunch of other urban centers that will have to be taken just like Bakhmut because they too have been fortified since 2015 and the fortification continues as we speak. The Donetsk front is basically an enormous network of forts and taking any one peice doesn't translate into a game changing victory. It just means another down x to go.
That's why hitting the network head on is so ridiculous. Thats also why Ugledar is an important town. If Ugledar had fallen hypothetically if MoD was competent and the Russian arny capable of such maneuvers the AFU in the South West corner of this sprawling network would have been vulnerable to encirclement. Much better to encircle than keep punching through a wall. Than another wall. Than another wall until your hand is totally broken.
The Russians have walked right into trap after trap. From the 2014 coup, to the Minsk accords which gave Ukraine 8 years to prepare,build forts and train their army. To attacking the most fortified part of the front head on. The original plan was to just encircle it with the Mariupol and Kharkov pincers. Again this shows the incompetence of the Russian command. Ukrainian army in Donetsk is basicly a super defensive army group and Bakhmut is just the 2nd defensive line, behind it is the 3rd and main defensive belt. It will probably take another year to crack it. Meanwhile Ukraine is building 2 mobile army corps behind the frontlines which will get all western army toys and the newest artillery systems, which are superior in range and accuracy to the Russian ones. With this force they will try another Balaklaia towards Mariupol and cut the Crimean land corridor. If this happends the Russians are finished.
LOL. Well, USA walked right into Bid Laden's trap and more than twenty years later has wasted 4-6 trillion fighting pointless wars in the middle east, destroying the lives of tens of thousands of Americans and bankrupting the empire.
thousands?
wow.
peanuts .
you are an idiot.
Jesus Fucking Christ ROLO. Are you a cunt only in the morning, or all day.
Here is an idea. Take you cuntish attitude and go promptly fuck yourself.
Low iq.
The Iraq insurgency against the US/UK totally exposed the US military as a paper tiger unable to maintain large scale ground operations, they only managed to buy a little peace in 2007/08 by paying off half the Sunni insurgents in secret deals (secret then) done in Jordan. But it could not save the occupation, which was meant to be permanent & a base for attack on Iran. The US defeat in Iraq literally began the unravelling of the empire & it is one of the reasons the US can not fight a war with Russia directly, on the ground, soldier to soldier, in an official capacity.
Russian interest rates at 16%. The USA 5 or six? Tell me again how well the Russian economy is doing?
Rolo - you actually watch the Duran? You must have a superhumanly strong stomach if you can watch more than 5 minutes. Yes, I get that you really don't, only so much as to see where the mass delusional psychosis originates - I just needed my biweekly to everyotherday fix of sarcastic put down medicine which is futile but .. . I would enjoy going further with a humorous ridicule of one of those two particularly, but it wouldn't be very nice at all.
The recent Battle of Ugledar shows there is a stalemate. Russia fumbled a great opportunity last year. Both sides are well dug-in. Time for a cease-fire.
A cease-fire is hard to get because NATO will likely continue lobbing drones across the border and cross border raids. This is because Russia keeps getting hammered and NATO is untouched. This is what provoked Russia to begin with, mortars sent into Donetsk.
Dmitri Trenin said Russia might try to get NATO to back off by launching one nuke into NATO territory. The only other alternatives is a Russian full scale war economy or discount supplies from China. Neither is likely.
Although there is now a segment of Congress and DeSantis that wants to lessen free supplies to the Ukraine, I do not see them being able to succeed. Money keeps going to the Ukraine.
And for predictions I can't see a Kiev attack breaking through in the South,. If anything we've been told about the militaries is true it would be suicidal, surely? 'Punch through' sounds good and is good if you're going somewhere that helps. They'd be punching through to nothing. There's no helping army waiting for them there.
And they would have the enemy at each side of them. Goddam. Isn't it basic and simple? And the closer they got to the coast the closer they'd be to Allied warships and their weaponry.
Close off their track behind them and they're in a cauldron.
What's the military doctrine for 'punching through' maintaining ground, supply logistics?
What's the forward plan? Got two fronts now. Going to attack both East and West?
An army that's supposedly flat our supporting its current front line?
And alright, the precision targeting of power hasn't hurt the Kiev military machine. Well why not? That would be very interesting to know.
And it all the time remains - the question of when is Russia going to get half way serious?
I mean threaten Kiev: simply declare the dam will go - the very threat would probably empty the town.
Precision target - remember all the power station precision demonstrations of ability - why aren't access roads /railways to Ukraine blocked permanently?
Plenty of room here for articles of interest...
lol, I guess we will see who is right and who is wrong.
i expect a paid sub from you when I am proven right.
Very hard to get a paid sub out of me... but I might even consider it in this case... :)
deal.
To do advances and wage war on a country like Ukraine against a well prepared army you need like 1-2 million men like the Germany Wehrmacht had in 1941. You have to push everywhere , attack in multiple directions so that you can outflank the enemy on a broad front whichRussia failed to do this in the opening phase and are now stuck in the WW1 scenario. Which mean alot of Ukrainian are Russia blood will be spilled. The one who endures the most wins. But this war can now last another 8 years. In the end it might just be another staged show because this invasion happend right when the covid scamdemic ended.
Yes, I feel the same way: that it could be a 'staged' operation. Incredible though the idea is we live in a time where the incredible becomes the normal.
I guess Kiev doesn't have a 'well prepared army' so we might not need millions. But then again the Allies don't need Kiev Ukraine, either. There is no need for it. A waste of time and money and men bothering to conquer it.
The truth might be somewhere in between. It is not wholly 'staged' but it is not wholly 'real' either.
And why not?
Because the 'real' war or the 'metawar' is the war against American Imperalist Dollar Hegemony to use the most fancy long winded phrase I've ever used in my life.
But that's it: The world is hamstrung by the petrodollar on the one hand and the threats of violence from America on the other. Be it 'gentle' violence like sanctions, crippling Cuba, for instance, for decades now, or harsh violence like Iraq where a country gets destroyed.
That is what Russia is revolting against here.
THAT was behind the creep of NATO ever closer to Russia. THAT was/is behind every renege on every agreement.
America was firmly against Russia before WWII even ended. But that was just a symptom. America is actually against the whole world.
America believes the only way to keep America UP is to keep the rest of the world DOWN.
This mindset, this implacable force, was in action in Europe from WWII and was given expression with respect to Russia.
To Russia it was quite plain for they didn't have a shallow short term view of things. They saw clearly the long distance plan and they saw clearly the happenings of the day. Didn't they? Don't they?
It is part of the incredible madness of today that our people still don't see America's wicked crushing of all and sundry even after Iraq has been crushed, Libya has been crushed, Syria all but crushed and occupied by an illegal army to this very day calmly stealing their oil!
It is staggeringly incomprehensible but the public STILL don't see what the USA is.
But Russia does.
America began to make its move on Russia way back and it gather pace and direction until it was very clear.
So it was/is American hegemony total, uncontested or not?
And Russia, alone in the world, in the western world at least, in Europe, decided to contest it and that's what Russia is doing.
So the 'real' war is there. On the global stage. With all those global 'theatres of war' or 'battlegrounds'.
They are, of course things like Trade and Economics and Agreements, Sanctions, Alliances and such.
And Putin has been fighting that war since before this began and he's done an incredibly good job apparently just about single handedly. Or we don't get to hear about the team if there is one and you'd think there must be. We hear of Lavrov and Zakharova is all.
But he has managed to find customers to continue the nation's oil trade, hence keeping the whole place afloat. He has managed to outmanoeuvre their finance/currency blocks in order that trade might persist. He has even built a tanker fleet. He has forged alliances that now are on the verge of having enough confidence in the outcome that they will step forward and vow to supply Russia with manufactured goods even up to weapons if she asks.
He and his team have found sources for all critical materials and components the nation was supposed to be crippled for lack of, via sanctions. He has kept the confidence of his people. He has discovered his military was full of old Soviet era timeserving colonel blimps and even worse: downright crooks and a self serving bureaucracy actually within the Dept of Defence and the Army structure that was virtually crippling it - and he's deal with it on the fly...
Putin has now got Russia to where there exists in the world as a solid real fact an alternative to the American hegemon. You can now trade globally in other than American dollars. You can supply your nation with oil in other than American dollars. You don't have to pay rent to the Americans - buy their dollars at an inflated price just so you can buy oil - you can now buy oil directly in your own currency at the recognised exchange rate. This brings actual immediate cash benefit to the countries in question.
Alliances and cooperations are being forged that America would have forbidden.
For America simply seeks to forbid everything and anything. America seeks to stifle, hamstring, kill the world. Incredible though it sounds, just look around.
So while all THAT is being forged the actual battleground of Ukraine IS a 'sideshow', a theatre where the two sides show each other that they are serious and they are capable.
In Ukraine Russia demonstrates not that it can 'conquer' Ukraine, which it has no desire to do and doesn't really matter either way in context of a global war about American hegemony but that it can supply and operate an armed force comfortably even when supposedly stifled and smothered and deprived of oxygen by the full weight of America's smothering asphyxiating sanctions.
America the professional assassin said we'll choke you to death, strangle you. At long distance. Via our instructions to our lapdogs. And they issued the instructions and the choking began.
And Russia shrugged it off. Russia didn't choke. Russia is breathing easier than the whole of the West.
THIS is the real war and this is a massive victory. Massive.
It gives courage and hope and new directions to the whole 'Rest of the World' (RoW).
India, China, Africa, South America, Asia - the whole world smarting from subjection to the American killing machine now takes heart.
Proving their strength the Russians don't even take the bait and do either of those two self defeating stupid things the Americans would have them do:
. Spend billions and thousands of lives trying to conquer the whole of the Ukrainian territory.
. Go mad, go 'American' and start an all-out war on Kiev Ukraine and bomb civilians.
Yep. That's my take on it.
America will collapse on its own, from within. Reason? Because it has become a multicultural shithole, without morals and it promotes degenaracy all over the world. They are demolishing their own statues of their heroes. Hell even Goebbels said that America is the most easy to conquer because blacks and whites living together is bound to go wrong. I think a massive race war is already in the making and that will be the death knell for Americans and their evil empire. They are already decaying at a rapid pace and instead of going down queitly it wants to cause as much chaos and destruction in the world. Russia did play some cards right but dealing with the devil never works. All i am saying is that they are in alot of trouble by stepping foot in the swamp that is Ukraine, every day Russians men are dying in this war which further weakens the nation. China and the US are just spectators ready to pick up the pieces. If Putin was so smart he should have invaded in 2014 when the Ukrainian army was a disorganised joke.
Yep. Lot of truth in what you say. But how and when it will all work out is almost impossible to predict, I think. It is noticeable that the American people have been totally absent since at least WWII. Now we have internet, computers, smartphone in every pocket. That makes 'the people' a very different thing to when 'the people' were a mass of uneducated people without access to information or calculating power, without any ability to broadcast to each other, without the ability to talk any one of them to any other one at any time all around the globe.
That's a very different population.
Now if they suddenly get onboard and start taking an interest then the global political dynamics could suddenly change dramatically.
Yep, Russia has a big problem right now, for sure. But the problem is not the fight in Ukraine. That's just a small symptom of it. The problem is fighting back against the American murderous hegemony isn't it?
And THAT fight had to come and I'm sure Putin at least knew that. And in that case really the sooner the better. Like while America only thinks it is prepared but is not.
No, you don't need an army of millions. You only need to break the financial strings that prop up the army that opposes you.
and what has russia done to achieve this?
on what timetable do you demand that Russia accomplish this? What is the Rolo Slavskiy criteria where you feel satisfied that Russia has "won" in Ukraine, not made any miltiary mistakes and has vanquished the west?
Where do you live in Russia? What are your Russian neighbors feelings on this?
Hmmm, what is the Russian strategic plan? Well, pretty simple from what we know. Russia annexed four Oblasts and Russia intends to fully demilitarize the newly annexed Oblasts of Ukrainian Defenders. Bahkmut is a key city as it has major transportation nodes and is heavily fortified.
Thus, by the very definition of the highest level strategic plans, removing all Ukrainian defenders from Bahkmut and every other city with Ukrainian soldiers within Russian territory must be contested.
Will the fall of Bahkmut mean that the Russians advance immediately to the Dnieper? Irrelevant. What is relevant is what actions Russia must take to remove all UKR fighers from the Donbass oblasts.
Are Russians dying in higher numbers than stated? Irrelevant. Do Russian tactics suck at times leading to heavy causalties? Irrelevant. Nothing is relevant except as to what contributes to the ultimate primary strategy of clearing all UKR fighters from the four annexed oblasts.
If USA were in a similar ground war, there would be fuck ups of every sort, thousands killed from crap military leaders pushing crap tactics, friendly fire deaths. Nothing that is happening to the Russians or Ukrainians would be spared ANY army fighting in similar circumstances.
Exit strategy?
Below what the Jamestown Foundation think about it. Putin will not go out of Ukraine!
This institute is connected to nato..
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/politics-and-propaganda-why-putin-wont-pull-out-ukraine
The only think I am sure about is that The main casualty during a war is the truth.
Ugledar is actually a fairly important town. If it falls the Russians would have a clear shot at hitting the AFU grouping in Marinka in the rear. Theres no big urban conglomerates or even fortress belts between Ugledar and Marinka on that South to North access. Its not at all like the Donetsk front where its just defensive belt after defensive belt and urban cluster after urban cluster.
That's probably why the Ukrainians acted so swiftly and decisively to not just contain but beat back the Russian attack. Of course even if MoD had made a breakthrough I assume they would have figured out someway to not make it to Marinka and squander the opportunity.
According to Strelkov, Murz, and well basically everyone comms is basically non existent between units even at the platoon level. Given that its crazy just how far Russia got in the 1st few weeks of the war. I would be very interested in knowing if Wagner has some different kind of communications scheme than MoD. I mean theres no way an operation like storming Ugledar is going to be anything other than a shit show when even platoons cant keep in touch. But Wagner is by all appearances fairly well coordinated, at Soledar they pulled off a pretty fast encirclement of the Ukrainians in the city proper. Their assault leaders can call for mortar or artillery fire directly which makes their fire more effective, MoD units cant. This was chalked up to MoD beuracracy before but it actually looks like a comms issue. Smaller MoD units just cant call the artillery directly.
This dude here is a very rare neo-nazi who is fighting for the Russian side:
https://t.me/OlimpicPitbull/49
Naturally Rusich gave him a recommend. In that short interview he says Russian commanders these days are absolutely nothing like old school ones. Like you could tell Suvorov to take what was literally the strongest fortress on earth and next time you heard from him he was when he sent you the letter that its fallen. He says commanders these days actually outright expect to be micromanaged.
Interestingly he says there isnt much shell hunger and that the front right now has more or less has what it needs. However he mentions that might not be true for everyone and that some units might have hunger not because of MoD but because of incompetent leaders not ensuring their guys are supplied. No Prigozhin screaming for ammo. That ties in to commanders actually preferring to be micromanaged. Timid commanders arent going to be proactive. If true I guess its good that there is actually ammo to be had but its also very bad because it means the rot has reached even mid level commanders.
The most interesting thing that had me face palming and confirmed all ive heard from Strelkov and Murz was that according to him if you want to know what company or battalion is next to yours you have to send a guy to go talk to them. Just Lord have mercy.
Dat hyper post modern space age World war one style battle.
Honestly it’s possible that a lot of competent officers were killed off already because they were contraktniki and the kremlins didn’t want to use mobiki in early days.
Yeah thats a reasonable extrapolation.
The good news is past Ugledar there is open plains somewhat. The bad news is Ugledar is surrounded by plains. Apparently the town is nothing but commieblocks. It's a tough nut to crack. I'm just still surprised at how much the Russians are struggling at the tactical level. I hate to say it but places like Ugledar are tailor made for a thermobaric or tac nuke if one really cared about saving lives that is.
they were literally built to be destroyed by nukes
Am I the only who feels like the Russian strategy in this SMO has been "mistakes were made?"
Ptards are swarming forth, Russia will be pinkhaired in an month
Well yes, you beauty. Seems to promise what I've been looking for. Real reporting of what really matters. Is there going to be more of it? Where else other than here can I find it? What does '5D people' mean?
What does 'not enough men and supplies' mean? Not enough in Ugledar or not enough all throughout the conflict zone?
This post to me hints at a lot but doesn't spell it out.
I really want more... any chance?
there's plenty in the archives for you to peruse
how's that work - where are they?
Located on a series of tubes