Ukraine is Going to Go On the Offensive ... in the South Probably

Another prediction.

With one prediction of mine expiring upon coming to fruition, we have one left in the air that is pending.

Yes, the Russian “Jeet-Kun-Do” Winter offensive has failed to materialize, just as I predicted. But, all signs point to a looming Ukrainian counter-attack. In particular, if the preparations we see now are not a feint, the attack looks to be set to occur in the south, in Zaporozhye, with the goal of cutting off the land bridge to Crimea.

The Ukrainians have been arming and training a new breakthrough force while they have held the front against slow, static WWI style trench warfare and grinding urban sieges like in Bakhmut. As for that particular town, well, the boss of Wagner says that he still needs more men. Someone should let the people over at the Duran know about this information.

Now, to predict what I think will come to pass in the south, we have to look at what occurred in Kherson and Kharkov already. In Kharkov, the Ukrainians massed up their men, broke through the defenses of the Russian army and threatened to encircle them. As soon as it became clear that they were outnumbered, the Russians began to pull back as quickly as possible, leaving behind equipment, and, in some cases, men as well, most of whom thankfully managed to fight their way out.

In Kherson, to avoid a repeat of what happened earlier, the Russians executed a retreat. The reason for it was the same: they were outnumbered and, worse, their supplies had a hard time getting to the front line because of precision strikes by Ukrainians on supply depots and the bridge-less river at the Russian soldiers’ backs. It is unclear why the city itself was abandoned without a fight though.

My Track Record

Looking back, my first war prediction was a soft one. That is, by the end of summer, I was fairly convinced that things were going very very wrong for Russia in the war. It had taken several months before I felt I had a decent grasp on who was telling the truth on Telegram and Twitter, but when I felt confident enough, I began to complain. I said that things were looking bad on the front for the Russians and I spoke about Kharkov. My “soft” prediction was that this wasn’t a fake retreat by the Russians or a trap, but a real defeat.

My first hard prediction was that Russia would abandon Kherson without a fight. They went ahead and did that.

Before that though, I said that the Russian energy strikes wouldn’t swing the battlefield in Russia’s favor. Seeing as everyone stopped talking about them, and Ukraine has had almost a month of uninterrrupted electricity, I’m guessing I was right on that count as well. And I never even got the chance to gloat about it before. Well, here I go.

The only time that I got something dead wrong is when I said that there would probably be a second mobilization. That was hopeful thinking on my part. It seems that every time I err on the side of doom, I tend to be proven right. I still can’t believe that they didn’t mobilize more men. I suppose they ran into supply and officer problems and couldn’t even process the men that they had already called up.

In my defense, I quickly changed my mind and started saying the opposite after New Year’s.

New Predictions

My first new prediction, already made several posts ago, is that it will be the Ukrainians who will go on the offensive. My second prediction, also hinted at before, is that the attack will be on Zaporozhye. And now, for the hat trick: will they or won’t they be successful?

Here, I cannot say one way or the other. Yet.

If the Russians commit enough men, then they should be able to hold off the Ukrainians or at least prevent the need to retreat en masse in the face of overwhelming numbers. There are already reports of tens of thousands of men being redeployed there from the Russian side. Ukraine has more men than Russia does, in general, but, this is a question of localized force concentration, not a question of total tally counts. In other words, can Ukraine mass and deploy more numbers in the south than the Russians can? In theory, they can. Also, in theory, the Russians can deploy enough men to prevent this as well.

So, barring new information, I do not feel comfortable predicting whether or not the Ukrainians will be able to punch through and to what extent they can advance. They certainly seem to be telegraphing their confidence that they will be able to invade Crimea this year even. To invade Crimea, however, they have to first cut the peninsula off. Also, if they want to achieve something decisive, it seems like the wise move to launch the offensive in the relatively open south instead of getting bogged down in the rust belt of Donbass like the Russians have done.

With spring though, come the muds. But I don’t think it is as big a deal as people are making it out to be. Less maneuverability will give the static Russians a better chance of fending them off though. Hopefully.

And that’s where we are at now. Let’s see if I am on a roll.

Evidence

I haven’t presented any evidence yet for my position. But I will going forward. First, I want to know where everyone else stands, opinion-wise.

Put Your Money Where Your Opinion Is

I say we make a bet going forward. If I am proven right, and you haven’t become a paid sub yet, you commit to becoming one.

Every time I make hard predictions I feel like I’m putting all my chips on the poker table, but my opponents get to keep their chips whether or not I have a better hand than them when it comes time to show our cards. 5Ders write meaningless word salad and the swine who read them religiously just scarf it all down unquestioningly. They have been wrong too many times to count, but they never seem to incur a penalty for this. Furthermore, they keep their predictions vague and easy to backtrack from and even still they get caught bluffing with a 7 and a 2 on the river.

So why am I the only one playing on hard mode? Where is my reward?

I should write the same drivel as them and rake in the winning regardless of the hand that I play. But I don’t for some reason. I don’t want to say that I’m more moral than they are, but I am more interested in finding out the truth. Clearly.

That’s why I refuse to tell people what they want to hear. Simple as.

And if I am wrong, or change my opinion, I will be honest about it.

That is my commitment to you. Now, where is your support for me?