Another ominous sign is that Ukraine is spamming geriatrics and kids to the front and pulling all their better units out of Bakhmut. Just like in the summer. When you see the kids and dedushkas showing up it either means everyone else is dead or reserves are being prepped.
I so want to believe it's not going to be Kharkov 2.0 but I know that if there is a way to turn it into that that MoD will find it.
As for the missle strikes most Patriotic Russian language channels dont even report on them anymore. I will eat my hat and admit that at first I thought they would be useful but yeah. Just always assume that whatever MoD is doing is at absolute best useless and likely harmful. The relationship between MoD and Russia military interest is roughly analogous to the relationship between Whites and jews.
I think your right, im thinking this will be the BIG Ukie offensive theres a reason why the Ukies have been losing fewer and fewer tanks in the last month or so, because they are been kept in the far rear in preparation for the coming southern offensive not because they have run out and are down to their last man as the 5drs continually harp about. Im guessing it will be a big one, they understand RUAF will substantially reinforce south in preparation that and the substantial fortifications built under "Armageddon". Expect to see all the new western gear Leo 2 Chally Bradleys ATACMs etc with NATO personnel in UKr uniforms. I have my doubts that RUAF will be able to hold the tide but if they do it could be a turning point in the war and the start of negotiations, have to wait and see i guess.
It's certainly a very clear knockout blow that the Ukrainians have access to, and the Russians have no equivalent. If they can simply build up a big enough force and fuck around with Russians long enough elsewhere it could be devastating. The curious thing about Kharkov was the total element of surprise the Ukrainians seemed to have. If they can replicate that again, well, eternal shame to the Russian intelligence services.
The Russians are much more dug-in in Zaporozhye than Kharkov. It would require the NATO puppets to way outnumber the Russians.
It is a mystery as to why Theoden (Putin) the King of Rohan, did not create even a p/t reserve where a few 100 thousand would muster locally. You would think being caught without reserves once would teach him a lesson.
I have long had a feeling that much is wrong with the Russian military and I've just this week run into slavland chronicles and they seem to share that opinion.
I don't know what expertise/authority I am looking at? Where is the writer located? What does he know/do? What sources for authoritative information?
And what is known thus far about the state of the Russian military? Please bring me/us (newbies) up to speed.
The author has mentioned the Duran a number of times. What's that about? They are to be ignored, surely? They know nothing, have no special sources, specialise in merely wordy opinion pieces. Something I'm not aware of there?
What's this about not enough men/supplies? There are no Russians in Bakhmut - just Wagner and the DPR 'somali' battalion isn't it? So where are they all?
Ukraine precision strikes? What with? I've been led to believe the allies have air superiority so how come Kiev has spy drones everywhere? Or is it all American satellite targeting they're enjoying?
And shooting what? I've been led to believe they're short on artillery and ammo. Is that a lie, too?
Someone please give an exhaustive rundown on this whole thing... :)
The Ukraine marching on Crimea makes sense. The US no doubt is demanding some type of major breakthrough by the Ukraine no matter how many Ukrainians get killed in the process.
At the risk of seeming like a 5der, this could actually work in Russia's long-term favor. I have to believe that this would be so embarrassing for what passes for a Russian braintrust that major changes would be finally forced on the government and military. If not, they will deserve to lose. Wars are tough especially if you are stupid or don't want to win
Wars are won by he who commits his reserves last. If the Ukraine commits it last best troops to taking land [Crimea] that is of no use to them (except as a political flag waving exercise) then that opens the "back door" to Russia. Russia would have the choice of either a thrust towards Kiev, through a line with no reserves left behind it, forcing Ukraine to turn around the offensive, or letting the thrust through, and grinding it to dust from behind, saying "Next army please, send more Nazi's"
I am really hoping you turn out to be right, with the prediction that the fighting will eventually fizzle out into some sort of scale-down. I think that's the best possible outcome.
Maybe that's why I support you and Marjanovic, and I don't send any money to any of the 5D bloggers even though I read them regularly.
The "5D bloggers" generally are expecting that Russia will humiliate and destroy NATO in Ukraine, and they're rooting for that outcome. I think it would be disastrous: it's a bad idea to poke the idiot Neocons to the point where they might pull the nuclear trigger.
I think you're rooting for a decisive Russian victory too, but at least you don't expect it's going to happen.
I agree with the prediction that Ukraine will try some sort of southern offensive, probably involving Zhaporozhya, and ultimately directed towards Crimea. And I predict that Putin would do just about anything, up to and including risking nuclear was, to prevent Crimea itself from falling to NATO forces. I doubt that Ukraine will get very far at all with this offensive.
Well, I'm still waiting for Putin to announce a scaling down of the not-a-war smo to a - what was it? Counter terrorist operation? Was that the prediction? What happened there? If I'm not mistaken, he announced a scaling up.
Russians have figured out how to play defense at this point. A Ukrainian attack might need the traditional 3:1 advantage. Could be a bloodbath for the Ukrainian side.
Ukraine can easily create the needed 3.1 advantage on a narrow sector of the front. Probably they could make 3.5 without breaking a sweat. On terms of manpower Russia is still pretty heavily outnumbered.
Who is having the most problems with munitions and equipment is debatable. The only thing I can see stopping a successful Ukrainian offensive is severe shortages in tanks and artillery relative to the Russian side.
Russias generals will like always do everything they can to help out the Ukrainians so Im not really comfortable speaking of the Russian military as a independent player with much agency at this point. Its honestly just a matter of whether or not the Ukrainians can martial enough armor and shells to make a decent initial break through somewhere. I think they will have enough. After that the Russian leadership will make sure the outcome is as catastrophic as possible for Russia.
A little too pessimistic I think. Ukraine can move troops, but so can the Russians, unless you think what is happening is not visible to them. Historically, almost every army f***s up at the beginning. Russia is certainly a good example. They learn, unfortunately at the cost of a lot of dead soldiers. On the strategic/political level, there is some learning there as well, at least one would hope. Putin has replaced some Generals. The classic example of that from American History was the Civil War. Lincoln kept replacing the Commanding General, until he finally found Grant, who was willing to use the North's numerical superiority and industrial power, to crush the South.
Paul Craig Roberts has been apoplectic since the beginning of this, that Putin's caution, naivete, whatever is leading to a nuclear war. Here is the latest.
AFAIIC, that seems to be pretty much the same prediction as almost everybody else is making ;-) (To make it a real prediction, add a time-out to it. Like there will be a southward Ukr offensive in Zap before the end of May... or whatever time frame you are comfortable with)
Probably correct too.
It will be very instructive, as such an offensive will -imo- show who is swimming naked. Ukr or Russia. I tend to think it's the Ukr. But we will see.
Btw: If there is no Ukr offensive, then we have to assume it's the Ukr that is swimming naked and they are actually losing an attrition war.
Yes, you were right and I agree with you that mostly of the 4, 5D writers are just clowns that win money in telling their readers what they want to ear... IMO a more important question is WHY you were right? Some have an explanation regarding the Russian problems which is very technical and that would explain why they are very difficult to solve in few weeks, months. For them you do not need to go the "conspiracy road" to get an explanation... What do you think about it?
Ive attached an article from "Big Serge"...I was interested to know what do you think about the article not the guy...Seems to me that it is not "5D" at all. In ahort, he said that first the Russians have tried a quick operation on kiev which has been a failure then the other problems are long to solve because they have to reorganize the army...Do you agree with that or not?
Keep it up with Grumpy Cat! My local MSM radio station KCBS San Francisco reported tonight that Russia has Bakhmut completely surrounded and blamed the huge loss of life on Russia (of course)
they claimed that Ukraine will withdraw several meters to prepared defensive positions....I think this is the first time I've heard the propagandists say Ukraine was winning anything...
Silly. The Ukrainians CAN'T take back the south, for the simple reason that we still have to wait for the MASSIVE Russian winter offensive to come, as soon as the ground freezes. Any day now....
There's too much tea-leaf-reading IMHO. I don't read blogs to find out who's right, but who shines the most light into the darkest corners. You do a great job with that. Conflicting sites do cast all sorts of misleading shadows, but that's the part I have to assess for myself.
It has become clear that the ultimate outcome of this conflict will depend on whether Russia or NATO-Anglo-America can muster more force and political, just like all wars. Thanks for keeping us informed about the Russian side of developments.
It's been months by now that troop concentrations were reported in two points, Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk.
Ukraine ebbs and flows with Western deliverances of weapons and supply. To continue the war they need to keep the West interested, and in order to do that they need to score some success.
The Kharkov victory came just a few months after territorial defense troops of the AFU, rendered dejected from Russian shelling, abandoned Lisichansk. I can see many parallels with the current Bakhmut situation.
Another ominous sign is that Ukraine is spamming geriatrics and kids to the front and pulling all their better units out of Bakhmut. Just like in the summer. When you see the kids and dedushkas showing up it either means everyone else is dead or reserves are being prepped.
I so want to believe it's not going to be Kharkov 2.0 but I know that if there is a way to turn it into that that MoD will find it.
As for the missle strikes most Patriotic Russian language channels dont even report on them anymore. I will eat my hat and admit that at first I thought they would be useful but yeah. Just always assume that whatever MoD is doing is at absolute best useless and likely harmful. The relationship between MoD and Russia military interest is roughly analogous to the relationship between Whites and jews.
I think your right, im thinking this will be the BIG Ukie offensive theres a reason why the Ukies have been losing fewer and fewer tanks in the last month or so, because they are been kept in the far rear in preparation for the coming southern offensive not because they have run out and are down to their last man as the 5drs continually harp about. Im guessing it will be a big one, they understand RUAF will substantially reinforce south in preparation that and the substantial fortifications built under "Armageddon". Expect to see all the new western gear Leo 2 Chally Bradleys ATACMs etc with NATO personnel in UKr uniforms. I have my doubts that RUAF will be able to hold the tide but if they do it could be a turning point in the war and the start of negotiations, have to wait and see i guess.
I think arestovich’s prediction might be prescient.
It's certainly a very clear knockout blow that the Ukrainians have access to, and the Russians have no equivalent. If they can simply build up a big enough force and fuck around with Russians long enough elsewhere it could be devastating. The curious thing about Kharkov was the total element of surprise the Ukrainians seemed to have. If they can replicate that again, well, eternal shame to the Russian intelligence services.
The Russians are much more dug-in in Zaporozhye than Kharkov. It would require the NATO puppets to way outnumber the Russians.
It is a mystery as to why Theoden (Putin) the King of Rohan, did not create even a p/t reserve where a few 100 thousand would muster locally. You would think being caught without reserves once would teach him a lesson.
I have long had a feeling that much is wrong with the Russian military and I've just this week run into slavland chronicles and they seem to share that opinion.
I don't know what expertise/authority I am looking at? Where is the writer located? What does he know/do? What sources for authoritative information?
And what is known thus far about the state of the Russian military? Please bring me/us (newbies) up to speed.
The author has mentioned the Duran a number of times. What's that about? They are to be ignored, surely? They know nothing, have no special sources, specialise in merely wordy opinion pieces. Something I'm not aware of there?
What's this about not enough men/supplies? There are no Russians in Bakhmut - just Wagner and the DPR 'somali' battalion isn't it? So where are they all?
Ukraine precision strikes? What with? I've been led to believe the allies have air superiority so how come Kiev has spy drones everywhere? Or is it all American satellite targeting they're enjoying?
And shooting what? I've been led to believe they're short on artillery and ammo. Is that a lie, too?
Someone please give an exhaustive rundown on this whole thing... :)
The Ukraine marching on Crimea makes sense. The US no doubt is demanding some type of major breakthrough by the Ukraine no matter how many Ukrainians get killed in the process.
At the risk of seeming like a 5der, this could actually work in Russia's long-term favor. I have to believe that this would be so embarrassing for what passes for a Russian braintrust that major changes would be finally forced on the government and military. If not, they will deserve to lose. Wars are tough especially if you are stupid or don't want to win
Wars are won by he who commits his reserves last. If the Ukraine commits it last best troops to taking land [Crimea] that is of no use to them (except as a political flag waving exercise) then that opens the "back door" to Russia. Russia would have the choice of either a thrust towards Kiev, through a line with no reserves left behind it, forcing Ukraine to turn around the offensive, or letting the thrust through, and grinding it to dust from behind, saying "Next army please, send more Nazi's"
I am really hoping you turn out to be right, with the prediction that the fighting will eventually fizzle out into some sort of scale-down. I think that's the best possible outcome.
Maybe that's why I support you and Marjanovic, and I don't send any money to any of the 5D bloggers even though I read them regularly.
The "5D bloggers" generally are expecting that Russia will humiliate and destroy NATO in Ukraine, and they're rooting for that outcome. I think it would be disastrous: it's a bad idea to poke the idiot Neocons to the point where they might pull the nuclear trigger.
I think you're rooting for a decisive Russian victory too, but at least you don't expect it's going to happen.
I agree with the prediction that Ukraine will try some sort of southern offensive, probably involving Zhaporozhya, and ultimately directed towards Crimea. And I predict that Putin would do just about anything, up to and including risking nuclear was, to prevent Crimea itself from falling to NATO forces. I doubt that Ukraine will get very far at all with this offensive.
Well, I'm still waiting for Putin to announce a scaling down of the not-a-war smo to a - what was it? Counter terrorist operation? Was that the prediction? What happened there? If I'm not mistaken, he announced a scaling up.
Russians have figured out how to play defense at this point. A Ukrainian attack might need the traditional 3:1 advantage. Could be a bloodbath for the Ukrainian side.
Ukraine can easily create the needed 3.1 advantage on a narrow sector of the front. Probably they could make 3.5 without breaking a sweat. On terms of manpower Russia is still pretty heavily outnumbered.
Who is having the most problems with munitions and equipment is debatable. The only thing I can see stopping a successful Ukrainian offensive is severe shortages in tanks and artillery relative to the Russian side.
Russias generals will like always do everything they can to help out the Ukrainians so Im not really comfortable speaking of the Russian military as a independent player with much agency at this point. Its honestly just a matter of whether or not the Ukrainians can martial enough armor and shells to make a decent initial break through somewhere. I think they will have enough. After that the Russian leadership will make sure the outcome is as catastrophic as possible for Russia.
A little too pessimistic I think. Ukraine can move troops, but so can the Russians, unless you think what is happening is not visible to them. Historically, almost every army f***s up at the beginning. Russia is certainly a good example. They learn, unfortunately at the cost of a lot of dead soldiers. On the strategic/political level, there is some learning there as well, at least one would hope. Putin has replaced some Generals. The classic example of that from American History was the Civil War. Lincoln kept replacing the Commanding General, until he finally found Grant, who was willing to use the North's numerical superiority and industrial power, to crush the South.
Paul Craig Roberts has been apoplectic since the beginning of this, that Putin's caution, naivete, whatever is leading to a nuclear war. Here is the latest.
Putin Went to War But Refuses to Fight
https://www.unz.com/proberts/putin-went-to-war-but-refuses-to-fight/
AFAIIC, that seems to be pretty much the same prediction as almost everybody else is making ;-) (To make it a real prediction, add a time-out to it. Like there will be a southward Ukr offensive in Zap before the end of May... or whatever time frame you are comfortable with)
Probably correct too.
It will be very instructive, as such an offensive will -imo- show who is swimming naked. Ukr or Russia. I tend to think it's the Ukr. But we will see.
Btw: If there is no Ukr offensive, then we have to assume it's the Ukr that is swimming naked and they are actually losing an attrition war.
Yes, you were right and I agree with you that mostly of the 4, 5D writers are just clowns that win money in telling their readers what they want to ear... IMO a more important question is WHY you were right? Some have an explanation regarding the Russian problems which is very technical and that would explain why they are very difficult to solve in few weeks, months. For them you do not need to go the "conspiracy road" to get an explanation... What do you think about it?
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-schrodingers?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1068853&post_id=104674762&isFreemail=true&utm_medium=email
I’ve already told you what I think of big serge
Apologies we got a misunderstanding...
Ive attached an article from "Big Serge"...I was interested to know what do you think about the article not the guy...Seems to me that it is not "5D" at all. In ahort, he said that first the Russians have tried a quick operation on kiev which has been a failure then the other problems are long to solve because they have to reorganize the army...Do you agree with that or not?
I suppose?
Serge was categorically denying that kiev was a failure for months though. He saw it as a clever feint.
And no, they are not reorganizing the army. They should be, but they are not. That is 5D again. Where is the proof?
When shoigu is gone, then maybe we can have the discussion.
Keep it up with Grumpy Cat! My local MSM radio station KCBS San Francisco reported tonight that Russia has Bakhmut completely surrounded and blamed the huge loss of life on Russia (of course)
they claimed that Ukraine will withdraw several meters to prepared defensive positions....I think this is the first time I've heard the propagandists say Ukraine was winning anything...
Silly. The Ukrainians CAN'T take back the south, for the simple reason that we still have to wait for the MASSIVE Russian winter offensive to come, as soon as the ground freezes. Any day now....
There's too much tea-leaf-reading IMHO. I don't read blogs to find out who's right, but who shines the most light into the darkest corners. You do a great job with that. Conflicting sites do cast all sorts of misleading shadows, but that's the part I have to assess for myself.
It has become clear that the ultimate outcome of this conflict will depend on whether Russia or NATO-Anglo-America can muster more force and political, just like all wars. Thanks for keeping us informed about the Russian side of developments.
My support for you is one of my best investments. Huge ROI.
It's been months by now that troop concentrations were reported in two points, Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk.
Ukraine ebbs and flows with Western deliverances of weapons and supply. To continue the war they need to keep the West interested, and in order to do that they need to score some success.
The Kharkov victory came just a few months after territorial defense troops of the AFU, rendered dejected from Russian shelling, abandoned Lisichansk. I can see many parallels with the current Bakhmut situation.
When you invade a country and they do more advancing than you