Ukraine Might Lose, Actually
I’ve been known to present the other, more optimistic side of the argument as a counter-balance to my own on occasion.
Again, I am NOT a representative of the pessimist camp. The real pessimists like Strelkov are FAR more pessimistic than I am, and I know that many of my readers already find my positions a bit too strong and bitter. Meanwhile, there are the clowns, in English alt-media, who believe that everything has been going according to Putin’s 5D Judo Plan. Everyone who reads this blog, I think, is far more pessimistic than the 5D optimists. So it’s a spectrum of pessimism that we all sit on together.
But today, there is reason to indulge in a little hopeium.
Readers have pointed out that there are signs of an American back down in the works over the Ukraine situation.
There’s that RAND report, the Pentagon report, the corruption allegations, a Human Rights Watch report, a Washington Post article, Blinken’s trip to China and a prediction by a 4-star general of war with China by 2025.
These are the key ingredients in the newfound optimism narrative.
The RAND report said, in short, that it’s time for Western militaries to pivot to China and stop spending so many resources on Ukraine. That China has been given too long to prosper and grow and that eventually, that will all be transferred into military might, so may as well not give them the time that they need to prepare. That’s probably why the 2025 figure is being floated as well.
Meanwhile, the Pentagon then reported that they didn’t think that Crimea would be seized by Kiev any time soon. Which is obvious, frankly. But I forget sometimes just how crazy the Western media is.
Human Rights Watch also condemned Ukraine’s use of mines, in particularly the practice of just firing them off into civilian areas primed with delayed fuses. Seeing as Ukraine are the good guys, it’s strange to hear HRW condemning them. People are right to lift their eyebrows as this development. It was forbidden to point out Kiev’s crimes against civilians and soldiers before this.
Then, Zelensky was forced to fire even more people in the Ukrainian government to keep the Western aid money flowing.
WSJ:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has removed nearly a dozen top officials as he tries to contain a series of corruption scandals and shore up Western confidence in his administration at a critical moment in the war.
Though the scandals are small compared with those of previous Ukrainian governments—some of which were accused of stealing billions in public funds—they are nonetheless a blow to Mr. Zelensky, who has garnered praise at home and abroad for his leadership of the country during Russia’s invasion.
Mr. Zelensky’s decision to dispatch apparently tainted officials, while others tendered resignations, underscores the importance of maintaining a clean image, both for Ukrainian citizens, who are dying in the thousands on the front lines and enduring economic hardship, and for Western governments, which are giving Ukraine billions in aid despite their own tepid economies. In the U.S., some Republicans have openly questioned whether the country should continue to fund Ukraine at the same levels as last year.
In a series of public addresses this week, Mr. Zelensky indicated he was seeking to clean house by dismissing officials of various levels in ministries, the regions and law enforcement, and tried to present the firings as proof of a break from corrupt regimes of the past.
“We will continue to take appropriate steps—the public will see each of them,” he said during his nightly address on Tuesday. “Any internal issues that hinder the state are being removed and will continue to be removed.”
Ukraine mired in corruption? I thought that was a conspiracy theory.
I’ve written before about just how much the corruption undermines the war effort for both NATO and Ukraine.
Would it really surprise anyone to learn that upwards of 70% of Western aid was getting embezzled? More? And that a significant portion of that money was also flowing back to the Western politicians that handed the keys to the American taxpayer treasure chest to the thieves in Ukraine in the first place?
And that people on the ground in Ukraine were getting screwed too?
As much as I like to complain about Russia, I am simply left speechless by what continues to go down in Ukraine. A common Slavland legend is that the Germans stole topsoil from Ukraine during WWII. But this is a level of looting that puts dirt theft to shame.
Finally, there was that WashPo report that the US was starting to get worry about all the stolen money in Ukraine.
Top officials from the Departments of Defense and State as well as the U.S. Agency for International Development just wrapped up a visit to Ukraine, delivering a warning of sorts about American aid at a time when Republicans are driving a drop in public support for Kyiv.
During their trip last week, leaders from the offices of inspector general from all three entities delivered a message that might be translated as: Be prepared to account for everything we give you. And keep fighting corruption.
Tracking American military and economic assistance and helping Ukraine expunge rot from its government aren’t new initiatives. Both have gone on for at least a decade. But let’s just say the Republican takeover of the House hasn’t exactly diminished the urgency of knowing what went where.
The official acting as the State Department’s inspector general, Diana Shaw said in a joint statement the trip “afforded us the opportunity to directly communicate American taxpayer expectations of transparency and accountability to the Ukrainian government.”
“The importance of that message cannot be understated,” Shaw continued. The State Department, working with the Pentagon and USAID, “is committed to rooting out any fraud, waste, or corrupt activities that would divert the assistance so pivotal to Ukraine’s ultimate success.”
The official acting as the USAID inspector general, Nicole Angarella, said in the same joint statement: “It is critical for the American people to have confidence in the integrity of taxpayer dollars sent to support Ukraine and its people.”
Yeah, I’m sure that’s whats going on. American politicians have suddenly remembered their undying commitment to fiscal responsibility. The far more likely explanation, that other politicians in America feel slighted and want in on the action, or that someone simply stole too much from the others, won’t ever be published in the WSJ.
And there you have it, really.
Western peasants are starting to get fidgety about all their money being sent to Ukraine
Ukrainian crooks are stealing too much from their esteemed colleagues, not sharing enough
Someone remembered that China exists and that the plan for a Globalist Government won’t work if they’re not brought to heel
So, if you focused in on this stuff, you did indeed have a reason to be chipper this week.
Me, I focus more on the Russian perspective and the battlefield, not the water cooler gossip that is referred to as high level diplomacy. For years, we listened to diplomats like Lavrov drone on and on about norms, conventions, esteemed Western colleagues and so on. My conclusion at the end of it all was that diplomacy was fake or that it only existed to put a fig leaf over actual military capabilities, which were the real determinant of outcomes.
Speaking of which, in the meantime, the aid money continues to flow in, the tanks are on their way and crews are being trained in Poland.
Also, I’m pretty sure that Ukraine will get their F-16s. Why? Because they’ve gotten everything else and the West paid no price for their arming of Ukraine before. Each time, they have pushed past the last red line and the Kremlin did nothing more than lob a few more bombs at electric substations in Ukraine in protest.
Why would the planes be any different? What would the Kremlin do? Invest more money into the USD to really stick it to the globalists?
I’ll leave you with a quote and a warning from some commentator left on my blog. (Don’t remember who it was, step forward to claim your glory).
"The right is happiest when it is optimistic. The left is happiest when they are trying to stop the Armageddon du jour. So while the left is waving its pride or Ukrainian flag while eating bugs so that we all don't die from climate change, the right is convinced some major victory is just around the corner so no need to worry."
Delusional optimism can only get you so far in life. At some point, reality reimposes itself. Just look at Ukraine.
It's a stupid conflict, pushed by human trash, and a lot of people have died for the hubris of fools.
Does the Rand report explain why the US has INTENTIONALLY built up China to be the best enemy $$$ can buy? In the West Coast town where I live we are being swarmed by Chinese commies who are being let in by using the so called EB5 program which allows any Chinese person to buy property here if they spend about $1/2M and supposedly work to improve the property in some way....so if we go to war with Chinese they will already have many entrenched people here to spy on us poor Amerikans...plus Macron was allowing the Chinese army to use Canada to train in cold weather fighting...nothing makes any sense except the notion that behind the scenes all the major powers are working together again all of us poor saps