We Are Entering the Final Phase of This Farce of a War

Doing nothing would be better than what they are doing now.

I was planning to write another installment on the running e-squabble that Strelkov continues to engage in with Prigozhin when a better idea suddenly took over the geist of the article. But I’ll fill you in on the latest drama, first, as planned. Basically, Strelkov called Prigozhin out for not policing his convicts better. He says that some have gone rogue and killed a Russian commander - a rumor that has been going round the Telegramosphere.

devcroix ⚔️ 🏵 @devarbol

@SlavlandStalker @Ponomarov3 the version is not Wagner as a group, but just pure criminal from somebody from Wagner. It's actually a common thing because a lot of guys from 2014-2015 also weren't really killed for political but purely criminal reasons.

Here, I break with Strelkov’s pessimistic views on the Stormtrooper-Sardaukar “employed” by Wagner.

And for once I hope to be proven right because I’m usually proven wrong whenever I break with Strelkov. My take is that using convicts to take positions is not a tactic that could be used by anyone other than a PMC like Wagner. Clearly, the Kremlin has no stomach for this war, at all, otherwise they wouldn’t have outsourced an entire front to Prigozhin. So, given these realities, the Wagnerites ought to be allowed to do what needs to be done. I’d rather it be convicts sent in the first echelon than young mobilized conscripts, wouldn’t you?

Besides, the Slavlands have a very serious prison culture problem. These places are factories for the creation of seasoned criminals. Russia’s government had to literally outlaw AYE, a prison-based subculture by designating them as a terrorist organization in recent years.

Better they be made useful on the front and their ranks thinned out if at all possible. After all, Kiev and the various ethnic oligarchs supporting the regime have had no qualms about emptying the mega-prisons of Donbass and employing the criminals in their own death squad ranks. This explains the rather high levels of atrocities carried out by criminal-heavy organizations like Azov, at least partially.

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Of course, Strelkov would argue that there is no point in these localized actions at all. If Russia is losing roughly one man for every one that they kill then it is a pointless action pursued for political objectives at home.

I’m going to take it a step further by saying that in these WWI trench + WWII Stalingrad conditions, the better play for both sides is to not do anything at all. No strategic objectives are being reached, especially because neither side has the men and resources to exploit any of the advantages that they gain over the course of the fighting. Both sides are simply depleting their manpower and resource reserves for no discernible reason whatsoever.

That is, unless there is a reason to believe that a strategic breakthrough is possible somewhere, there is no reason to just throw men at the fortified positions of the enemy and engage in a war of attrition. Far better to simply wait and mass men and supplies and then try for a larger, strategic level operation that can actually achieve a significant result. Fighting this way would not only make more sense militarily, but saves soldiers’ lives. In WWI, both sides came to this realization as well and started spending their time playing a game of cat and mouse to disguise supply concentrations, troop redeployments, and using tactical feints to hide the real target. of their large breakthrough attacks.

There is also literally no reason for Russia to pursue these small-fry tactical objectives. If anything, they are the ones who would benefit from sitting back defensively and massing troops. Instead, it is the Ukrainians who are doing so. With Russia, their win-condition isn’t to kill every single Ukrainian man. Their goal ought to be to seize the country and topple the government.

Furthermore, seeing as Ukraine is literally considered part of Russia, these soldiers that are being killed are basically potential Russian recruits that are being lost before they can be used against NATO. The best case scenario would be to save as many Ukrainian soldiers’ lives as possible so that they can simply be reused against the next opponent that Russia faces. To achieve this, large strategic operations with encirclements and key objectives being seized are necessary. Attrition warfare is literally the worst strategy that one could engage in because it plays right into Washington’s hands. Seriously. That is exactly what they openly say that they want in various Western think tanks: a long, bloody, protracted conflict.

So why are the Z-seals on Twitter clapping so loudly? Do they really think that by showing only videos of Ukrainian tanks being blown up that we don’t know that Russians are getting blown up as well!? That we can’t see videos from the other side showing the same mauled corpses, but in the uniforms of the other side?

Ridiculous.

Clowns and grifters, the lot of them. It’s just a game for them. They hide behind a faux-veneer of Z-patriotism as they belch out a retarded rah-rah-Russia post from the comfort of their divan in SoCal or wherever. It’s not their country getting blown to bits. It’s not their people being riddled with shrapnel. And yet they have the nerve … whatever, whatever. Yahweh-willing, their grandkids will be mulattos (not that there’s anything wrong with that!) and I will have the last laugh.

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Anyways, seeing as Russia’s military doesn’t seem to have the resources or the coordination to pull something on this level off, they appear to be acting busy with these smaller, localized actions. But, even if Bakhmut is taken, nothing changes. Of what strategic use is this smoldering ruin of a town? Yes, the Ukrainians have to retreat to the next defensive line, but what of it? So they retreat. What then?

Well, someone’s prestige increases in Moscow and their odds of dying in a helicopter crash either increase or decrease depending on the calculation that we, or more importantly, they, are using. And that is why Bakhmut or Ugledar or some other hitherto unknown village in the south is so important, suddenly.

What? Why are you people mad at me?

You like to say that Russia is the Third Rome all the time and then you act all aghast when I talk about the Byzantine politics that govern this embattled Empire.

Grow the fuck up.

In the meantime, I am starting to have serious doubts about the much-prophesized Russian winter offensive. Perhaps what we are seeing now is all we’re going to get. If not, then perhaps we do indeed need to wait for the 1-year anniversary to see Russian units move in from the north.

Arestovich, who has been remarkably candid in recent months, believes that a dogovornyak between the two sides is brewing behind the scenes again.

Koba @Roberto05246129

Former adviser to Zelensky said that the West is preparing the best negotiating positions for peace. Acc to Arestovich, Ukraine gives the Donbass to Russia, while the AFU break through the Southern Front and make peace at this exchange.

He says that, basically, both sides are looking to secure some kind of face-saving compromise in the coming months. He also agrees with what Strelkov is saying: that no large-scale operations are being planned by Russia. And that the US is looking to change the focus of their attention. Possibly, this has something to do with the China pivot that they have been telegramming in recent days.

If this scenario is indeed being worked hammered out in the backrooms, then the only real question left is: who gets what. Here, not only will land be negotiated for, but trade deals and access to raw markets and other such considerations taken into account. The ethnic lawyers will serve as middlemen between the two sides and pocket hefty fees for their services, naturally.

[Speaking of which, Gazprom has created a new mercenary outfit of their own, probably to secure the various pipelines running gas through Ukraine. I’ll be writing about that in the coming days.]

In the meantime, with the clock possibly running out on this war, it makes sense that those trying to make a name for themselves or squeeze out a few advantages are making moves while there is still time to do so, greater strategic objectives a distant second or third order of consideration.

The lack of escalation from the Kremlin’s side is further proof of their desire to wrap things up before things get too out of hand. Furthermore, rhetoric about “Satanism” aside, they clearly all just want to go back to things being the way that they were.

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Will they succeed, though?

Well, things have indeed changed. And some of these changes are going to be hard to put back in the box.

Consider the following factors:

• The Permanent Opposition Liberal political faction has been significantly weakened by the closure of their many media projects

• Prominent Liberals have fled to Israel, Latvia and Georgia

• The Right-of-Kremlin forces in the country are mad as hell and will only continue to grow in size and influence

• Wagner is now a political player in the domestic arena

• Many oligarchs have either been killed off or lost parts of their fortunes thanks to sanctions and seizures

• The Russian economy continues to be being throttled by the central bank, so the money pie is not growing

Should the war conclude with a pyrrhic victory for Russia, the situation at home will become rather volatile. Will it affect the ruling classes’ ability to continue plundering the country and stashing the gains in the West?

Well, yes.

Russia’s oligarchs, thanks to the sanctions imposed by the West, will have no choice but to engage in “patriotic corruption” going forward. In short, stashing their ill-gotten gains in Russia and not the West. This will make a big difference for the country. These stolen funds will now be more accessible by rival gangs of oligarchs and the FSB or the various powerful ethno-mafias.

Russia Unplugged @UnpluggedRus

Russian cops have broken up an Azerbaijani mafia meeting, near Moscow, arresting 52 people, 48 of them citizens of the Caucasus country. Police say the suspects are involved in the illegal trade in weapons and drugs. Quite a collection of weapons in this video.

I predict another bout of internal blood-letting among the crooks squabbling over spoils at a bare minimum.

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The only reason why the West would be willing to let up the pressure on Russia now is because they are fairly certain that they’ve wounded Russia well and good. Now the country has a permanent bleeding sore on its Western border, death and discontent at home to deal with, and is increasingly forced to tighten ranks and use indiscriminate spook state tactics to manage rising factionalism and so on.

The current state of stability in Russia is only possible because of the war.

All rallies are banned. Most Permanent Oppositionists have fled. Communication between the citizens and the government has virtually ceased. Putin doesn’t even do his “Direct Line” with the Russian public any more. It’s not as extreme as Ukraine, but it is also not the same as it was before the start of the Not-War.

I don’t think that they keep a lid on things like this forever. Especially if a war truce is negotiated. People are willing to put up with a lot during moments of crisis like fake pandemics or farcical wars. But when the crisis passes, either a new one has to be concocted quickly, or the enthusiasm for such coercive measures wanes. Furthermore, coercive measures are expensive, and Russia cannot print infinity money like the US can.

And no, I’m not predicting a popular uprising or anything like that.

If anything, the crooks and the spooks have managed to tighten up their hold over the country’s resources. So, who would even leave the overthrow? Strelkov? Nah, living conditions will simply worsen and Russia will be even worse prepared for the second bout when it comes around eventually.

Now, that is the best case scenario should a secret backroom deal actually be in the works as many suspect.

The worst case scenario is that the eventual agreement with the West has secret provisions for tolerating the return of the Permanent Opposition to Russia as a condition for freeing up some oligarchs’ frozen assets or something. In other words, the worst case scenario is the country gradually sliding back into the status quo of the pre-SMO days but with 50-100k dead to show for it.

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Now, the miracle case scenario is that Russia gets its act together and puts some big W’s up on the scoreboard. Or that Wagner spikes the backroom talks by continuing to pick fights with the Ukrainian Army, rendering negotiations impossible and prolonging the conflict. Ideally, Russia negotiates a favorable peace deal with Ukraine. Peace for the Donbass, basically.

Not that great considering how ambitious the initial plan was, but better than nothing.

But for that, they need more troops, more weapons and a large, coordinated operation. Fingers crossed, but no holding our breaths on this one. Either they’re doing a stellar job of hiding their intentions, or this is the furthest thing from their minds at this point.

Let’s reconvene on February 25th and see where we stand before making any more large speculations.